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Looking for feedback on a futures signal service I am considering starting


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Looking for feedback on a futures signal service I am considering starting

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  #1 (permalink)
thankswillie
New Orleans, Louisiana
 
 
Posts: 8 since May 2017
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

Hello fellow futures traders,

I trade the e-mini S&P 500 and use a proprietary system that generates signals. I've done quite well with it (about a 90% success rate with 5% break evens and 5% losses) and am considering starting a website where I sell the signals. I know that I will have to give the signals away for free for some period of time to display the accuracy of the system. So, I am looking for feedback:

Other than giving the signals away for a period of time, is there any other good way to prove the validity of my claims?

Do you think a price point of $500/month would deter people? I don't want to price it so low that I undercut myself, but I also do not want to scare people away. I figure I can offer to charge only if a certain number of points are earned per month, otherwise no charge.

Any ideas on advertising methods? So far, I've been considering Google pay per click, but there seems to be a lot of competition out there. My main concern is figuring out exactly how I can differentiate myself to show that I have a good product to offer.

Any ideas on how to prevent people from sharing the signals with others? Part of the reason I feel such a high price per month is appropriate is not only because of the success of the system (I won't charge unless it generates a 25 point profit per month) but also in the hopes that it will act as a deterrent from people posting it due to how much they are paying to receive it.

Thanks for your help. I'm not entirely sure if I am going to go through with this, but I figured this would be a good community to get ideas from.

If there is anything that someone feels I have overlooked, please feel free to comment. I'm still in the information gathering phase. I know I'll be asked this so I'll address it- why do I want to sell the signals? I've always had an entrepreneurial spirit in me to have my own business that is successful, and this I think is the best opportunity since it's a subject matter that I have a good knowledge about.

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  #3 (permalink)
 choke35 
Germany
 
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thankswillie View Post
... is there any other good way to prove the validity of my claims?

...My main concern is figuring out exactly how I can differentiate myself to show that I have a good product to offer.

A very simple start: Show up with an audited track record of a real money (sub)account that traded all signals that
were produced by your system over a representative period of time.

P.S.: Assuming your question is for real, one more hint: Don't bore people with success rates.

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  #4 (permalink)
thankswillie
New Orleans, Louisiana
 
 
Posts: 8 since May 2017
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Definitely a real post. I know there are a lot of scammers out there who mislead people with claims similar to the one I made, but I want to prove that I am different.

So, based on what you said, you think a screenshot of past trades on my ThinkOrSwim account would be sufficient for what you are saying? That idea crossed my mind, but I was worried I would be accused of photo shopping it since people are good at that these days.

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  #5 (permalink)
 choke35 
Germany
 
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thankswillie View Post
Definitely a real post. I know there are a lot of scammers out there who mislead people with claims similar to the one I made, but I want to prove that I am different.

So, based on what you said, you think a screenshot of past trades on my ThinkOrSwim account would be sufficient for what you are saying? That idea crossed my mind, but I was worried I would be accused of photo shopping it since people are good at that these days.

You skipped the word "audited" ...

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  #6 (permalink)
thankswillie
New Orleans, Louisiana
 
 
Posts: 8 since May 2017
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Ok, could you provide me with an example of what you mean by having it audited? Are you suggesting I grant a third party access to the account to verify trades?

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  #7 (permalink)
 choke35 
Germany
 
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thankswillie View Post
Ok, could you provide me with an example of what you mean by having it audited? Are you suggesting I grant a third party access to the account to verify trades?

That's exactly what e.g. fund managers do to prove their record. They grant a third party - auditors - access to
the accounts and get an audit opinion in return (if valid).

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  #8 (permalink)
thankswillie
New Orleans, Louisiana
 
 
Posts: 8 since May 2017
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

I think your idea has a lot of merit, and I am definitely going to shop around pricing to have a reputable firm come in to do that for me. I think doing that along with posting the signals for free for several months would establish credibility. There's only about 6-7 trades per month, so it's not something that will consume much of a trader's time.

What do you think of the $500/month price point if I say that I won't charge unless there's a profit in that month of 25 points or more?

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  #9 (permalink)
 rleplae 
Gits (Hooglede) Belgium
 
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How long have you been testing your system live (on a real account with real money)
SIM fills are very different from real market fills.

What is the total number of trades the system took ?

A realistic period is like 18 Months, but a professional will say, ok the market only went up
so they will most likely want to see your system in up market and in down market

Good luck !

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  #10 (permalink)
thankswillie
New Orleans, Louisiana
 
 
Posts: 8 since May 2017
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received



rleplae View Post
How long have you been testing your system live (on a real account with real money)
SIM fills are very different from real market fills.

What is the total number of trades the system took ?

A realistic period is like 18 Months, but a professional will say, ok the market only went up
so they will most likely want to see your system in up market and in down market

Good luck !

I have been trading the system live since about last September. It has been generating an average of about seven trades per month, with some months having several more than that and other months having many fewer. So, I am definitely far short of the 18 months you mentioned there.

I did go back with about two years of data to see how it would have done and it had similar results, but we all know that doesn't count for much because trader psychology changes when live money is on the line.

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  #11 (permalink)
 choke35 
Germany
 
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Posts: 2,668 since Feb 2013
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Depending on your returns, available time, and objectives: A lot of relatively well-known traders, asset managers,
signal sellers etc. chose the following short cut to gain credibility and attention:

Standings ? World Cup Trading Championships

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  #12 (permalink)
thankswillie
New Orleans, Louisiana
 
 
Posts: 8 since May 2017
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

That seems like a really good idea, and I would like to sign up. Looks like I'm a little late to the game for the 2017 calendar year, but I'm open to doing anything to establish credibility and to prove myself.

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  #13 (permalink)
thankswillie
New Orleans, Louisiana
 
 
Posts: 8 since May 2017
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

Also, your method seems a lot more cost effective for me and easier than having a private auditing firm come in and look at everything. This seems like the best route to go to establish credibility.

Thank you for your suggestion!

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  #14 (permalink)
 mattz   is a Vendor
 
 
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thankswillie View Post
I have been trading the system live since about last September. It has been generating an average of about seven trades per month, with some months having several more than that and other months having many fewer. So, I am definitely far short of the 18 months you mentioned there.

I did go back with about two years of data to see how it would have done and it had similar results, but we all know that doesn't count for much because trader psychology changes when live money is on the line.

You can use services such as Striker or iSystems to generate LIVE results.
I like the fact that you do not have a high amount of trades, but again in all reality, you need to build a track record is that verified. By the way, most retail traders seek daily signals, so your best bet is actually looking for people who are more of investors who are in it long term. Just my 2 cents.

If you need help getting hooked up on any of these services or need to see how an audited track record looks like (net of all fees) please PM Me.

Thank you,
Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
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  #15 (permalink)
thankswillie
New Orleans, Louisiana
 
 
Posts: 8 since May 2017
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received


mattz View Post
You can use services such as Striker or iSystems to generate LIVE results.
I like the fact that you do not have a high amount of trades, but again in all reality, you need to build a track record is that verified. By the way, most retail traders seek daily signals, so your best bet is actually looking for people who are more of investors who are in it long term. Just my 2 cents.

If you need help getting hooked up on any of these services or need to see how an audited track record looks like (net of all fees) please PM Me.

Thank you,
Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

I don't think I need something quite that sophisticated, to be honest. My system is an end of day system that generates trades that are supposed to be good within 48 hours. I'm tempted to go into the trading journals part of this site and open one and post each time there is a trade since it seems easy and is definitely cost effective

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  #16 (permalink)
 rleplae 
Gits (Hooglede) Belgium
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader, Proprietary,
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thankswillie View Post
I have been trading the system live since about last September. It has been generating an average of about seven trades per month, with some months having several more than that and other months having many fewer. So, I am definitely far short of the 18 months you mentioned there.

I did go back with about two years of data to see how it would have done and it had similar results, but we all know that doesn't count for much because trader psychology changes when live money is on the line.

8 * 7 = 56 trades, this seems from a pure statistical point of view a very "limited" sample
8 months as a testing period is also a very "limited" window of time

the good news is that you are able to make profit, and you don't need to "sell" the service
you can simply exploit it for yourself and try to leverage it to the max

in my opinion, you can do several things:
- see if the same method works on any other instruments (in order to have a higher number of trades)
- just continue and if it keeps working, you will build your track record over time

Is the method 100% algorithmic or is there a discretionary component ?
in the later case, do you have an idea how to handle issues like:
- liquidity (during NY sessions, this may be a no brainer on ES, in overnight, this might be something different
- do you only publish the entry signal ? or also the exit ? how will you handle filled / not filled ?
- do you have a idea of what is the liquidity on which the model works and where it breaks ? (simple statement, if you fire many zombie/slave orders, there will be smart people who will go after the liquidity of the stops in case of less liquid market conditions)

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  #17 (permalink)
 mattz   is a Vendor
 
 
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thankswillie View Post
I don't think I need something quite that sophisticated, to be honest. My system is an end of day system that generates trades that are supposed to be good within 48 hours. I'm tempted to go into the trading journals part of this site and open one and post each time there is a trade since it seems easy and is definitely cost effective

What I offered is not sophisticated per se, rather a solution that would create tranprnancy for your method.
If you have an EOD system then you can submit orders by email as well.

I think your cost of $500 per month is rather high, but you can a cost of a "per unit" to your subscription.

Lastly, you are more than welcome to post your trades but if they are any good, they will be copied by many and hence the edge of your system will be eroded over time. Via a paid subscription you can control the number of lots you can control.
We can help you create a display that would give a good stat page for people to evaluate your system.

I will PM you a page that will show how we display stats for vendors we carry with positive track records.

Thanks,
Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
1 800 771 6748 local 561 367 8686 email support@OptimusFutures.com
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  #18 (permalink)
 mattz   is a Vendor
 
 
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rleplae View Post
8 * 7 = 56 trades, this seems from a pure statistical point of view a very "limited" sample
8 months as a testing period is also a very "limited" window of time

.....

Agreed. Sadly, these systems with very few trades can go (potentially) into a serious drawdown and they may need manual intervention for the sake of cash management because the stops may be way far.

Thanks,
Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
1 800 771 6748 local 561 367 8686 email support@OptimusFutures.com
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  #19 (permalink)
putncall
Raleigh nc/usa
 
 
Posts: 6 since Jan 2017
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If the system is really 90% accurate consistently, I would trade the pee wee out of it myself and make a fortune. Do you really need the hassle of an advisory service? It's all good until one day it doesn't work, and people start complaining.

As others have said, regardless of how much you charge, people will start to share it, and the value will be eroded.

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 mattz   is a Vendor
 
 
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putncall View Post
If the system is really 90% accurate consistently, I would trade the pee wee out of it myself and make a fortune. Do you really need the hassle of an advisory service? It's all good until one day it doesn't work, and people start complaining.

As others have said, regardless of how much you charge, people will start to share it, and the value will be eroded.

Every trader should leverage to the level that his nature(risk tolerance) allows it.
There are decreasing returns when you start trading above what your mind perceives as a reasonable risk.
If the account grows one can attach certain levels of lots to it so the fluctuations on the larger equity would not cause you to deviate from your method.

Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results,

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
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