Effects of French election on market.

April 26th, 2017, 07:25 AM

Just looking for some insight from some others on what effects the French election will have on the markets.
The EUR/USD shot up like crazy after Macron won the first round but after the US election I've realised that media coverage is a terrible indicator of outcomes. How are others going about hedging their trades in case Le Pen or Macron wins. It doesn't just seem as easy as going long since Macron is in the lead in the polls.

Any insight much appreciated. Sorry if this is the wrong section I'm new here.

April 26th, 2017, 09:50 AM

Hi @Coogy

The up gap came from having *more stability* within Europe after first elections.
Markets will stay on this level - IF Macron wins. He does not want to leave the EU
as Le Pen indicated.
Nothing more difficult to have a Brexit plus a Frexit and maybe more. That was
priced in EUR/USD as well as in the CAC or the DAX after seeing that Le Pen is
not first.

If Le Pen wins - then the markets may tumble.

Hint: best to stay at the sidelines (or hedge positions) if things are not very clear.

Just my two cents.
GFIs1

April 26th, 2017, 10:18 AM

Nice, simple and straightforward interpretation of fundamentals @GFIs1.

April 26th, 2017, 12:07 PM

GFIs1

Hi @Coogy

The up gap came from having *more stability* within Europe after first elections.
Markets will stay on this level - IF Macron wins. He does not want to leave the EU
as Le Pen indicated.
Nothing more difficult to have a Brexit plus a Frexit and maybe more. That was
priced in EUR/USD as well as in the CAC or the DAX after seeing that Le Pen is
not first.

If Le Pen wins - then the markets may tumble.

Hint: best to stay at the sidelines (or hedge positions) if things are not very clear.

Just my two cents.
GFIs1

Yeah I think I might sit this one out since it's a tad unpredictable. Thanks for the input

Effects of French election on market.

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Effects of French election on market.