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Ron's black swan events
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Ron's black swan events

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Ron's black swan events

I'm creating this thread to list a few possible black swan events.

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying which presumed black swans did not exist, but the saying was rewritten after black swans were discovered in the wild.

For clarity i'm not a doom thinker nor do I have a particular visionary skill, but i do see a few global events unfolding that could potentially result in an unprecedented Armageddon. I just wanted to document and discuss them and maybe other member see potential other possible black swan events. When you describe, please be precise.

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big global war

While ships are steaming towards North Korea and nobody really take serious that this can result in a conflict of a global scale, this could polarise parties around the globe. Just imagine, on one side USA, South Korea, Japan and the rest of the western world, On the other side North Korea, Russia and China.

What first starts as shooting a few rockets to each other on the big ocean, can very quickly deteriorate into a cyber war. Famous Russian and Chinese hackers attacking critical infrastructure in the USA (Banking networks, Stock exchanges, Global infrastructure (FB, Amazon Cloud, Google), ...)

What happens if the internet goes down 2-4 days ?

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Escalation


It looks like the situation with North Korea continues to escalate.

Chinese and Russian officials urge all countries to refrain from any escalation.

For whoever plans to do something, it sounds like he has exactly one shot,
if he misses...
it will be a very messy ugly lose/lose for everybody.

With the long weekend, i expect the markets to open rather nervous on Monday

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end of Europe

Although most people see this as impossible and completely crazy,
what if Le Pen wins the elections wants to nationalise all major industries and quit Europe ?

Very much, as in some other parts of the world, people want to see things "changed"
but the change that is available on the menu is not necessary what is best in their
personal interest...

But still people want change

My black swan event : Extreme right wins elections and immediately a discussion
is started to exit the Euro and Europe...

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Is this a warning of something much heavier coming ?

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/12/global-cyber-attack-ransomware-nsa-uk-nhs

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rleplae View Post

The vulnerability is known for 3 weeks, I'm a bit surprised that it took so long for pirates to launch a massive attack like this one, so I don't think we'll see something similar soon (at least with this NSA tool call EternalBlue).
When this vulnerability was detected (old Windows machine are vulnerable, XP and 2003 Server) all the tools to launch such attacks were also available online to everybody: how to scan all Internet quickly to detect vulnerable machines and how to attack them.
I did some tests on a Windows XP machine in my lab and it was quick easy to get access to it, then do whatever you want (like encrypting all files).
The NSA coders are super stars, their code is very good, too bad that it seems to always go online to be used by very bad guys...

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sam028 View Post
The vulnerability is known for 3 weeks, I'm a bit surprised that it took so long for pirates to launch a massive attack like this one, so I don't think we'll see something similar soon (at least with this NSA tool call EternalBlue).
When this vulnerability was detected (old Windows machine are vulnerable, XP and 2003 Server) all the tools to launch such attacks were also available online to everybody: how to scan all Internet quickly to detect vulnerable machines and how to attack them.
I did some tests on a Windows XP machine in my lab and it was quick easy to get access to it, then do whatever you want (like encrypting all files).
The NSA coders are super stars, their code is very good, too bad that it seems to always go online to be used by very bad guys...

I agree @sam028 and I know what is out there, in a previous life i did setup the security
scan lab for one of the global payment schemes and i did see some demonstrations by
brilliant people doing a vulnerability assessment in that period i also got to know a few
guys who were active in crafting 'cyber weapons', for most people, this is more a topic for
a science fiction movie on a lazy Saturday night but that was reality...

It was the reason why i put the black swan event in the first place

I'm 100% convinced that if we get into a next 'global war', this is the type of things you
will see, on the one hand there are our smart Russian hackers, but also Asia has a number
of those batteries..

But then you will see many "zero-day" attacks, and it takes time to make a patch, and when
parts of the internet becomes unstable, it becomes difficult to deploy those patches...

Wait and see..

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Are the North Korean missiles just state level theatrics intended to sway public opinion and not government?

It is not exactly a new idea, even in the public domain Tom Clancy's "The sum of all fears" 2002 has the same plot device, a bomb shipped in a vending machine. Why would Kim J-U put a fairly small nuke on a rickety missile when he could put it in some heavy plant equipment for shielding and ship it from South Korea? Once a country convincingly possess a nuke why even ship it? As a friend of mine says simply knowing you could have one already in Washington on a dead-man's circuit is enough. This has been Israel's position on it's own nuclear weapons, that they exist is sufficient.

It is my understanding that the US and USSR did exactly this as part of M.A.D., there was no flight time for the first A-bombs anyway, they were already in place in the respective capitals. It may be conspiracy theory but it is so simple it is probably true.

Like pre-911 with airlines, there are perfectly obvious threats that most are blind to. State theater.

The point being that the real game is played out at an invisible level so beyond theatrical chest thumping affecting markets is war actually even possible?

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