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Probability platform
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Probability platform

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 26 since Aug 2016
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Probability platform

Hello Traders

does any one know a platform or excel add in that can calculate things like below and with a distribution of results:

1. If XX goes up 5% in 2 days what is the outcome for day by day for next 10 days. And then show the result as a distribution. As example, for the last 100 times this happened stock went up more than 1% day 1 after in 65 of the outcomes

2. If stock hits new ATH then what happens next day, next 10 days, next 100 days. And then again with clear check, in the last 20 cases 15 went up and 5 down etc

Is there any good platform or software to do this sort of analysis?

Kind regards


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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston, TX
Futures Experience: Advanced
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That would be very easy to do in Morningstar's Commodity Excel Addin (Link) or Commodity Query (Link) but unfortunately it's not cheap software.

Query would look something like

0: Close of SYMBOL
1: Close of SYMBOL 1 value later
2: Close of SYMBOL 2 value later
3: Close of SYMBOL 3 value later
4: Close of SYMBOL 4 value later
(Close of SYMBOL / Close of SYMBOL 2 values ago) > 1.05

You'd have to set up your own histogram in Excel though.

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  #4 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston, TX
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
Posts: 2,361 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,913 given, 3,945 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Thinking about it, it wouldn't be that difficult to do in easy language (and assume other backtesting software) but would involve a little more work.
Initialize a Counter with Value 11

For each Bar
- Increase Counter by 1
- Calculate if Close/Close[2]>1.05 & if so set counter to 0
- If Counter is < 11 then print to file a) Date b) Counter value c) Close d) Close/Close[2] etc

Then analyze in Excel.

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  #5 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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I'm not an expert but I know my developer uses Mathematica from Wolfram Research a lot. Possibly just as he owns it.

The online Alpha system does neat stuff

Wolfram|Alpha Examples: Money & Finance

Last edited by Rory; September 25th, 2016 at 03:27 PM.
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Trading Apprentice
Batavia NY
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: YM, equities
Posts: 5 since Sep 2016
Thanks: 0 given, 6 received

It would be quite easy to do this with Python and Pandas.
Just google Anaconda python.

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