Probability platform - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading

Probability platform
Updated: Views / Replies:2,178 / 5
Created: by Loop Attachments:0

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 100,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Thread Tools Search this Thread

Probability platform

  #1 (permalink)
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Multichart
Favorite Futures: Gold
Posts: 26 since Aug 2016
Thanks: 22 given, 4 received

Probability platform

Hello Traders

does any one know a platform or excel add in that can calculate things like below and with a distribution of results:

1. If XX goes up 5% in 2 days what is the outcome for day by day for next 10 days. And then show the result as a distribution. As example, for the last 100 times this happened stock went up more than 1% day 1 after in 65 of the outcomes

2. If stock hits new ATH then what happens next day, next 10 days, next 100 days. And then again with clear check, in the last 20 cases 15 went up and 5 down etc

Is there any good platform or software to do this sort of analysis?

Kind regards


Reply With Quote
  #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

Quick Summary is created and edited by users like you... Add FAQ's, Links and other Relevant Information by clicking the edit button in the lower right hand corner of this message.

  #3 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
Posts: 2,968 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 2,410 given, 5,314 received

That would be very easy to do in Morningstar's Commodity Excel Addin (Link) or Commodity Query (Link) but unfortunately it's not cheap software.

Query would look something like

0: Close of SYMBOL
1: Close of SYMBOL 1 value later
2: Close of SYMBOL 2 value later
3: Close of SYMBOL 3 value later
4: Close of SYMBOL 4 value later
(Close of SYMBOL / Close of SYMBOL 2 values ago) > 1.05

You'd have to set up your own histogram in Excel though.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
  #4 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
Posts: 2,968 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 2,410 given, 5,314 received

Thinking about it, it wouldn't be that difficult to do in easy language (and assume other backtesting software) but would involve a little more work.
Initialize a Counter with Value 11

For each Bar
- Increase Counter by 1
- Calculate if Close/Close[2]>1.05 & if so set counter to 0
- If Counter is < 11 then print to file a) Date b) Counter value c) Close d) Close/Close[2] etc

Then analyze in Excel.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
  #5 (permalink)
Posts: 2,743 since May 2014
Thanks: 5,444 given, 8,140 received

I'm not an expert but I know my developer uses Mathematica from Wolfram Research a lot. Possibly just as he owns it.

The online Alpha system does neat stuff

Wolfram|Alpha Examples: Money & Finance

Last edited by Rory; September 25th, 2016 at 03:27 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #6 (permalink)
Batavia NY
Posts: 5 since Sep 2016

It would be quite easy to do this with Python and Pandas.
Just google Anaconda python.

Reply With Quote


futures io > > > Probability platform

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

futures io is celebrating 10-years w/ over $18,000 in prizes!

Right now

$1,000 in Amazon Gift Cards being given away right now from GFF Brokers

Right now

$250 Amazon Gift Cards with our "Thanks Contest" challenge!

Right now

Show us your trading desks and win over $5,000 in prizes w/Jigsaw Trading


Webinar: Chart Patterns and Practical Trading Stats w/Suri Duddella

Elite only

Webinar: Richard Bailey (TBA)

Elite only

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Probability 101 Hotch Traders Hideout 67 May 30th, 2018 08:06 AM
High Probability Minds The Elite Circle 10 July 18th, 2013 04:47 AM
stupid probability questions stephenszpak Off-Topic 56 January 14th, 2012 02:21 PM
High Probability Trades-My Journal Ronin Trading Journals 19 March 26th, 2011 01:50 PM
Expectancy/Probability for zwentz steve2222 Psychology and Money Management 0 November 8th, 2009 12:59 AM

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:35 PM. (this page content is cached, log in for real-time version)

Copyright © 2019 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432,
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts