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Achieving Consistency - the turning point?
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Achieving Consistency - the turning point?

  #21 (permalink)
Elite Member
Stockholm Sweden
 
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bobwest View Post
"Expectancy" is a statistic that is calculated from past results. It tells you what you have been doing, and if you are consistent, what you can expect in the future. It's worthwhile to know, no matter what your method is.

Formula:

Expectancy = (Percentage of wins multiplied by Average win) - (Percentage of losses multiplied by Average loss)

This is more important than just your winning percentage by itself, since it accounts for the size as well as the percentage of wins vs. losses. It tells you, objectively, how you are doing. Keeping track of it keeps you realistic.

Bob.

What I wanted to point out was that if you have a method with set rules then it's very easy to calculate expectancy and you could also make it much more advanced than that formula you menchioned, but that's not the point. The hard part when you are trading discretionary is to quantify your method - especially if you are using multiple tools that needs to be read with discretion

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  #22 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Macan View Post
What I wanted to point out was that if you have a method with set rules then it's very easy to calculate expectancy and you could also make it much more advanced than that formula you menchioned, but that's not the point. The hard part when you are trading discretionary is to quantify your method - especially if you are using multiple tools that needs to be read with discretion

You're right of course, and I understand that.

But there is value in keeping track of what you are actually doing, which is what the "expectancy" statistic is for: it tells you what you have been doing. If you trade consistently, it may tell you what you can expect over a period of time if you trade the same way. But it's more a scorecard than anything else. That's my only point; we don't really disagree here, I think.

Bob.

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  #23 (permalink)
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For me, it took getting absolutely obliterated time and time again trading by the seat of my pants. I knew I had an idea but I wasn't executing it because too much was getting in the way (mostly my own emotions). So I set out to learn how to program my ideas to try and take the emotion completely out of it. It took awhile and honestly it's a never ending journey to tweak and test but it has helped me so much.

Now when I have an idea for a trading strategy I can think about it, build it and test it for as long as I think it needs to be tested. Back test, forward test, optimization on different time frames, etc. Then, assuming it looks decent I can let it loose on sim and test some more. By the time I trade real money I have confidence in the system and I know the computer doesn't get scared and it ALWAYS cuts losses when they need to be cut.

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DK86 View Post
Blash, your words here are encouraging. I am actally in the process of setting up my own stats for opening types,resulting day types, following day types, as well as ON highs. FT71s videos have really opened my mind but I need to do the stats and see it unfold for myself. I am really glad you pointed this out.

Given my small account size (and the time it takes to build it up) I am using this time purely for education. I do swing equities on a very small scale to get accustomed with the emotions, execution and more or less practice, however my mindset is more geared towards day trades.

This is an intersting business, I am certainly driven to join the ranks of those who have worked hard enough to make this a succesful one. You can't put a price on your freedom. If I could even achieve the same salary I have now (nothing spectacular) I'd be the happiest person alive

This is how my screens look most of the time....

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Excel is an important part for me to understand the instruments behavior. For example, on a weekly basis from December 2007 to present ES breaks the Monday high 76% of the time.

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