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Brexit 101


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Brexit 101

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  #1 (permalink)
 xplorer 
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Seeing as there may be interest in discussing a possible 'Brexit' (UK leaving the EU) I thought I'd start a thread about it.

Of course the discussion in here should be predominantly of an economic persuasion.

Title idea courtesy of @jtrade.

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To me Brexit just feels like it's going to be a repeat of Scotland leaving the UK: much ado about nothing.

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 SMCJB 
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jtrade View Post
It's SO simple (but only if you think about it...) :

Question 1 : If the UK was not presently a member of the EU, would we want to join and be told what to do by those highly sympathetic and unerringly intelligent bureaucrats in Brussells ?

If, yes, stay in; if no... Questions 2 & 3 : how do we transition if leaving and is this any more of a challenge than staying in ? I think not.

It's not the same as Scotland, which was simply fed up with centuries of rule by the Sassenach scum (as a non-resident Scot, I'm sympathetic...), but leaving the union would have been a disaster for Scotland, whereas the UK has a relatively short history within the EU.

Btw, it's a multi-level disaster for the EU if the UK leaves, but teaches ze Huns and ze Frogs & a good lesson imho (Britain imports FAR more from the EU than it exports, not that these numbers would likely change significantly).

NATO remains largely unaffected.

I vote OUT.

(Of course if Fat Tails would refuse to allow his indicators to be used by non-EU members, I might have to reconsider )

Isn't it more about the economic impact than egos?

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 xplorer 
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SMCJB View Post
What do you guys think about Brexit and its potential effect on Europe?

I have family and friends in England and listening to them Brexit is a case of when not if. Probably why the GBP has moved so much in the last 3 months.

Looks like markets started pricing in the risk more aggressively when Boris Johnson started campaigning for the 'Yes' last weekend.

Personally I am not aware of how the trade model between the Eurozone and the UK is set up so I don't know how a potential exit would affect it.

My earlier comment about storm in a teacup is purely based on a perception of what I think people will likely vote. In most of these cases voting for the status quo tends to be the safer option.

EDIT: people also likely to go with whatever the sitting Prime Minister suggests in these cases.

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 jtrade 
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SMCJB View Post
Isn't it more about the economic impact than egos?

Perhaps sadly, I think not... and if the present UK government lose the vote it will be because they have placed too much emphasis on the economic argument (which is not watertight anyway).

I believe it's what will shortly be called "The Trump Syndrome"...

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 xplorer 
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jtrade View Post
Perhaps sadly, I think not... and if the present UK government lose the vote it will be because they have placed too much emphasis on the economic argument (which is not watertight anyway).

I believe it's what will shortly be called "The Trump Syndrome"...

What's the UK government's economic argument?

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xplorer View Post

Obvious propaganda - even if it turns out to be true - and, frankly, who gives a damn these days about what the G20 leaders think ?

They & their bankers got us into the current global mess in the first place...

And this is the modern dilemma, both here in the EU (inc UK) and in the USA and elsewhere : an absence of truly competent and respected leaders.

But who'd be a politician (well, apart from The Donald) ?

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 jtrade 
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xplorer View Post
What's the UK government's economic argument?

Pretty much aligned with this : Britain Stronger In Europe

I find The Sunday Times good for both sides of the argument, even though I have to wait till Monday to get it..

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