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Brexit 101

  #711 (permalink)
 
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srgtroy View Post
I wish the best for the UK but I fear Fareed Zakaria is right, we are witnessing the fall of the Anglo-American Empire that rose after Waterloo in 1815 and has dominated the world, first through Britain, then America, until now.

The Empire was practically no more after WW2. Those in Britain who believe otherwise IMO are still clinging to that last-century, nostalgic-view of the UK's vast reach which has no place in today's world.

But I still believe that many voters were fooled into thinking that Britain's place in the world can still be as relevant even without being part of the EU which, in my mind, is nonsense.

The economic superpowers in the world today are the US, China and the EU, of which Britain is a part of. There is zero incentive for the EU to give the UK any preferential trade treatment once Britain leaves.

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  #712 (permalink)
 
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xplorer View Post
The Empire was practically no more after WW2. Those in Britain who believe otherwise IMO are still clinging to that last-century, nostalgic-view of the UK's vast reach which has no place in today's world.

But I still believe that many voters were fooled into thinking that Britain's place in the world can still be as relevant even without being part of the EU which, in my mind, is nonsense.

The economic superpowers in the world today are the US, China and the EU, of which Britain is a part of. There is zero incentive for the EU to give the UK any preferential trade treatment once Britain leaves.

Generally, I agree with you. I would say WW2 was the beginning of the end for the British Empire. Brexit would be the end of the end.

For the US, I would say Trump may be the beginning of the end. We're not quite at the end of the end, yet.

If history teaches us one thing, though, in the big picture, there is never any 'going back'. It only moves in one direction, for better or worse.

R.I.P. Roy Goldberg (srgtroy), 1965-2023.
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Every time I see PM May talk about "agreeing a deal" I just feel like saying "ON a deal, you agree ON a deal". I'm sure she's speaking the King's English, but for us Yankees, it don't sound right

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xplorer View Post
The Empire was practically no more after WW2. Those in Britain who believe otherwise IMO are still clinging to that last-century, nostalgic-view of the UK's vast reach which has no place in today's world.

But I still believe that many voters were fooled into thinking that Britain's place in the world can still be as relevant even without being part of the EU which, in my mind, is nonsense.

The economic superpowers in the world today are the US, China and the EU, of which Britain is a part of. There is zero incentive for the EU to give the UK any preferential trade treatment once Britain leaves.

Guten Morgen.

With apologies for posting a recent speech in the Bundestag by one of the AfD (Far Right) politicians, but whilst the AfD may have some very unpleasant policies, I feel the speaker hits the nail on the head on this particular subject. Btw, the UK politician, Jacob Rees Mogg, leader of the right wing ERG, brought this speech to everyone's attention last week, causing quite an uproar.



Further comment this sunny morning :

1. The British Empire : WW1, not 2, changed everything. Prior to WW1, GB was by far the dominant nation in global trade, with Germany second and the US a distant third. By 1918, Germany lay in ruins, GB was deeply indebted to the US, which took over for the next 100+ years (until China likely takes over in the next decade or so).

Somewhat off-topic, but relevant in terms of radically different historical outcomes : suppose the British had not come to the aid of the French in 1914 ? France would have fallen quickly in a much shorter war, Germany becoming the dominant European power, with cousins Bill (Kaiser) & George (King) still having tea together a couple of times a year. UK & Germany remaining the leading global superpowers, no Hitler, no Holocaust, no Hiroshima.

Of course, humanity might likely have contrived another way to destroy itself, but it's worth remembering that decisions can have much larger effects than one realises.

Another, more recent example of this would be the day the UK fell out of the ERM in 1992, an event that many felt a shameful disaster at the time, yet by keeping its own currency, the UK has prospered tremendously, avoiding all the problems of the Eurozone.

2. Britain retains a significant place in the world as its fifth largest economy (out of 200 or so).

3. As Germany's - & other EU members'- largest export market in Europe, there are many reasons to do a favourable deal, as the video speaker states. The problem has been staggeringly inept negotiating skills by the UK "team".

Rant over

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don't worry to much about the UK .

Look at the Caribbean: All those English speaking Island are well off.
Almost all those French/Creole speaking Island are poor.
Furthermore all English speaking Countries have a better Birthrate than for example Japan Switzerland and Germany
(Germany only 1.38/ UK 1.8 )

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Just English is enough to stay on your own.

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jtrade View Post

2. Britain retains a significant place in the world as its fifth largest economy (out of 200 or so).

Do you think that Britain's place as 5th largest economy will be maintained, or perhaps improve or get worse, once it's out of the EU and sufficient time has passed?

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xplorer View Post
Do you think that Britain's place as 5th largest economy will be maintained, or perhaps improve or get worse, once it's out of the EU and sufficient time has passed?

It's a good question & my point was partly that in the longer term, this cannot be known, although in the short-term, I'm with Bank Governor Carney, ie. strong negative effect.

However, apart from India - which will overtake very soon either way - which economies that are presently behind the UK might overtake ? France ? Italy ? Brazil ? Hmmm.....

https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/

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jtrade View Post
It's a good question & my point was partly that in the longer term, this cannot be known, although in the short-term, I'm with Bank Governor Carney, ie. strong negative effect.

However, apart from India - which will overtake very soon either way - which economies that are presently behind the UK might overtake ? France ? Italy ? Brazil ? Hmmm.....

https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/

Italy, after China bails it out and turns it into a client state via its Belt & Road Initiative

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xplorer View Post
Do you think that Britain's place as 5th largest economy will be maintained, or perhaps improve or get worse, once it's out of the EU and sufficient time has passed?

In the near future it will be difficult to define the word "economy" as maybe Scotland is becoming independent and maybe Hawaii as well!
And maybe they all will stay on their own ! They don't need any Union just a NATO is enough.

And all those non English speaking countries will gather like EU together with EAEU https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union

So the ranking will be different . However this "Virtual British Empire" linked by language only will be powerful as well.

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carofa View Post
In the near future it will be difficult to define the word "economy" as maybe Scotland is becoming independent and maybe Hawaii as well!
And maybe they all will stay on their own ! They don't need any Union just a NATO is enough.

And all those non English speaking countries will gather like EU together with EAEU https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union

So the ranking will be different . However this "Virtual British Empire" linked by language only will be powerful as well.

NATO is a military alliance, it's got nothing to do with trade, though.

There seems to be a contradiction in what you say: first you mention some countries will stay on their own but then you cite the example of the EAEU.

This may not be a perfectly fitting example but in these cases I tend to simplify: just like the Global brands and shopping malls are able to concentrate shopping in one place commanding preferential treatment from suppliers - and in the process cornering smaller shops - at a wider scale, an economic union has a similar premise. If you are part of it, you are expected to benefit from its membership. But if you are left alone, expect to be (trade-speaking) cornered.

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