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The cost / benefit should be measured over generations, not quarters. The British people voted for a future change of way of life in the UK. They want to control their own destiny. And know it seems they have some remorse when it hurts their pocket this week, while forgetting the real reason they voted. I bet if voters were polled prior to voting they would have said they were ok with a little short term pain for future benefit (with the benefit not measured only in £)
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If you look at vote by age the young stronlgly voted to stay while the old voted to leave. The old won't be around to take control or see the effect over decades never mind generations. The young on the other hand, in decades time, will have to manage with what a bunch of dead people thought was best for themselves.
Another point of view is the young have only known one alternative, while the old have known another way of life, and have something else to compare to. This of course assumes the old have a reliable memory of the past, which we often know it's not.
Said another way, the old have more experience and are often more capable of looking at the bigger picture, while the young are inexperienced and more narrowly focused. The old possibly realise money is not the be all and end all, and any financial hardship will be more than offset by other benefits.
I absolutely agree with you that these kinds of decisions should be measured over the long term, but there is no evidence IMO that the voters 1) had the long term picture in mind and 2) voted because of a reasoned case.
I can't speak for Carney's impartiality, but what seems plain to me is this: whatever benefits Brexit should bring, if any, they may become apparent over the long-term. That is, decades. It could be 10, 20 or 50 years from now. The main issue …
My understanding is the thrust of the vote was to gain control over immigration policies. My first experience of England was a tube ride from Heathrow to Warren Street in 1999, where I was struck by how few 'native' english people there were. I left in 2008. There are benefits from integrating different cultures, but the benefits are offset by diluting the original culture. Other issues arise where there is a lack of willingness to integrate, or barriers to allow integration. I think the 'old' voted in an attempt to re-claim their heritage, or stem the rate it is being lost.
If correct, then I think it was with a long term in mind. Another 50-100 years of free movement of people and it would be difficult to determine which european city you are in, if not for the historical buildings. I think each country should hold on tightly to it's heritage and it's individual way of life, rather than mix the world all up, so it's the same where ever you go.
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The old want the England back that won World War II, and that was a dominant World Power. They are fed up of being told what to do by the French, Germans and Dutch. None of that changes with Brexit. England doesn't regain it's status as an Empire and World Ruler and if they want to trade with Europe - which they need to do - they'll still have to do what Europe tells them to do. This is why the 'leavers' don't want any deal on the table either - it doesn't get them what they want - but nothing actually will! If they do exit, how long before Scotland holds another vote for independence? Will there be a hard border with Scotland? Would that classify as getting stronger or weaker?
and 3) actually understood what they were voting for.
I think that was a major factor, but a secondary one. Nigel Farage's bus didn't mention immigration. The people I know (including the old) didn't have a big problem with immigration within reason. They did have a problem when people wanted their own schools, taught in their language not English, and when they want their religious law to supercede English Law.
I'm not sure the oldies considered regaining their status as a world power, but they wanted to retain whatever individuality that still remained. They certainly will regain a fair bit of control. EU can't dictate the relationship they have with the rest of the world. And I believe when they negotiate trade piecemeal they will get a better deal overall. I believe EU feel they have leverage due to the deadline, and the anxiety of exiting without a deal. Being hard nosed provides a disincentive for other countries to break up. They lose a lot of this leverage in the event of a hard exit. On individual issues the EU will soften their stance. That's my naive view anyway. No doubt some industries will suffer hard, while others will start to thrive.
Once some of the other stronger countries in the EU see that England doesn't implode there will be more pressure to break up. What Scotland does, I do not know. They haven't seen the same cultural shift as England has, partly because the weather is so shit, and probably other more significant reasons.
Farage was banging the immigration drum loudly. The more immigrants you have, the more the base population is diluted, and the easier it is to push through the problems you mentioned.
I wish the best for the UK but I fear Fareed Zakaria is right, we are witnessing the fall of the Anglo-American Empire that rose after Waterloo in 1815 and has dominated the world, first through Britain, then America, until now.
