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Brexit 101

  #511 (permalink)
 
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sam028 View Post
An hard Brexit was expected and it will hurt both economies (but much worst for UK than for the 27).
The single small positive aspect is that the "no Europe" guys will clearly see the consequences of not being in.
I'm not sure what they are going to do with the Irish border...

Sam - I disagree that Brexit (IF it actually happens... & I would have to agree my "Not going to happen" position is beginning to look unsustainable... just...) will be worse for the UK than elsewhere. It will be a disaster for the EU in the short term.

But as Lord King, the former Governor of the Bank of England recently wrote, 30 years from now it will all be irrelevant...

The Irish border will stay open, even if unofficially (Switzerland has a number of crossings like that... one of which I use every year).

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  #512 (permalink)
 
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jtrade View Post
The Irish border will stay open, even if unofficially (Switzerland has a number of crossings like that... one of which I use every year).

I took the train from Paris to Zurich last year, there was no immigration or customs anywhere. Unlike the London - Paris train where the immigration presence was significant.

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  #513 (permalink)
 Alexander Savin 
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SMCJB View Post
I took the train from Paris to Zurich last year, there was no immigration or customs anywhere. Unlike the London - Paris train where the immigration presence was significant.

In 1999, the European Union and Switzerland signed the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons. The agreement lifts restrictions on EU citizens wishing to live or work in Switzerland. The right of free movement is complemented by the mutual recognition of professional qualifications, by the right to buy property, and by the coordination of social insurance systems, and is the main reason why there are next to no border controls between the EU and Switzerland. Since the UK clearly opposes the free movement of persons, I doubt that the Irish border will simply stay open. But who knows, they might actually be sensitive enough to acknowledge the historical context.

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The EU is set to inflict a double humiliation on Theresa May, stripping Britain of its European agencies within weeks, while formally rejecting the prime minister’s calls for early trade talks.

[...]

The European Banking Authority and the European Medicines Agency employ about 1,000 people, many of them British, and provide a hub for businesses in the UK. It is understood that the EU’s chief negotiator hopes the agencies will know their new locations by June, although the process may take longer. Cities such as Frankfurt, Milan, Amsterdam and Paris are competing to take the agencies, which are regarded as among the EU’s crown jewels.

Meanwhile, it has emerged that Britain failed to secure the backing of any of the 27 countries for its case that trade talks should start early in the two years of negotiations allowed by article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. The position will be announced at a Brussels summit on 29 April.

Despite a recent whistlestop tour of EU capitals by the Brexit secretary, David Davis, diplomats concluded unanimously that the European commission was right to block any talks about a future comprehensive trade deal until the UK agrees to settle its divorce bill – which some estimate could be as high as €60bn – and comes to a settlement on the rights of EU citizens.

May will have hoped that draft European council guidelines, leaked last month, which took a tough line on the negotiations, including a clause ruling out a trade deal within two years, would have been softened during consultation with the member states. However, the lack of any questioning of the European commission’s position on the timeline surprised Brussels veterans, wearily used to displays of EU disunity.

Senior EU sources claimed that Britain’s aggressive approach to the talks, including threats of becoming a low-tax, low-regulation state unless it was given a good deal, had backfired. “However realistic the threats were, or not, they were noticed,” one senior EU source said. “The future prosperity of the single market was challenged. That had an impact – it pushed people together.”

Another senior diplomat said initial sympathy with Britain had fallen away in many capitals, due to the approach of Theresa May’s government. “Of course, we want to protect trade with Britain, but maintaining the single market, keeping trade flowing there, is the priority, and so we will work through [the EU’s chief negotiator] Michel Barnier,” the source said. “Britain used to be pragmatic. That doesn’t seem to be the case any more, and we need to protect our interests.”


Full article on The Guardian

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I wonder whether GBPUSD will continue its slide downwards with this kind of news.

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  #516 (permalink)
 tre436 
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Alexander Savin View Post
Since the UK clearly opposes the free movement of persons,.

Border Controls into / out of the UK is because the UK are not a part of Schengen, nothing to do with opposing free movement of people (which they do support for now)

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 Alexander Savin 
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gktk View Post
Border Controls into / out of the UK is because the UK are not a part of Schengen, nothing to do with opposing free movement of people (which they do support for now)

You are right, I stand corrected.

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xplorer View Post
The EU is set to inflict a double humiliation on Theresa May, stripping Britain of its European agencies within weeks, while formally rejecting the prime minister’s calls for early trade talks.....


xplorer View Post
I wonder whether GBPUSD will continue its slide downwards with this kind of news.

That's a great question. I wonder how much of this is priced in. I think the pain in the next few years could be substantial.

As an aside does the UK have it's fishing rights back yet or do you still have Slovakian fishing boats fishing off of hull?

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SMCJB View Post
As an aside does the UK have it's fishing rights back yet or do you still have Slovakian fishing boats fishing off of hull?

I have not followed the fishing situation - but if what you're mentioning refers to any rights that would change post-Brexit, then the answer is most likely no. Nothing changes until the UK is formally part of the EU, which could take 2 years or more.

This may perhaps be referring to your question? https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/15/uk-fishermen-may-not-win-waters-back-after-brexit-eu-memo-reveals

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I kind of meant that tongue in cheek (Slovakia is land locked) but that article you linked to is amazing. Really seems like your going to get the worst of all worlds. Why would UK agree to allow the EU to fish their waters if the EU is blocking everything the UK wants. If you really are going to do Brexit, and the EU is going to play hardball, seems like the UK should just walk away and settle everything in court. How much worse could it be?

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