The fact is that the longer the Article 50 notification is put off, the greater the chance it will never be made at all.

German economists’ assessment of economic sentiment in Germany has plunged to the lowest level since 2012 amid concerns over “export prospects and the stability of the European banking and financial system” in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU.

I am acutely aware of the fact that I keep posting only 'doom-and-gloom' articles about Brexit.

The fact is, whether it's mainstream media narrative or not, I can't seem to come across many article casting any positive effects of Brexit from a macroeconomic standpoint.

Granted, given where Cable is, and given the negative outlook at the moment, there won't be too many positive spins on this, I get that.

But to completely ignore that there will be some positive sides as well (which I'm sure there are, it's only a matter of finding them) seems puzzling to me.

I am acutely aware of the fact that I keep posting only 'doom-and-gloom' articles about Brexit.

The fact is, whether it's mainstream media narrative or not, I can't seem to come across many article casting any positive effects of Brexit from a macroeconomic standpoint.

Granted, given where Cable is, and given the negative outlook at the moment, there won't be too many positive spins on this, I get that.

But to completely ignore that there will be some positive sides as well (which I'm sure there are, it's only a matter of finding them) seems puzzling to me.

Its extremely difficult to determine or project positive or negative macroeconomic outcomes at this early stage. There were several medium to longer term quite detailed brexit reports in the months leading up to the vote, but they focussed almost exclusively on the impact upon the UK economy and the variations were enormous and very dependent upon the type of trade arrangements the UK makes both with europe and around the globe, together with the increase or reduction in UK business regulations and red tape implemented by the current and future governments. So they really weren't very useful at all...

The level of chaos and disruption that just about every major financial, business and political figure or institution warned of has not come about. The IMF projected a UK recession, the UK chancellor threatened an emergency budget, etc. Both have since retracted those predictions. The IMF has this week reduced its UK GDP forecast by 90bps, to 1.3% which is certainly a large one-step reduction, but does not project a recession. And its forecast for the UK over the next 1-3 years is higher than those it's made for Germany, France and Italy. The initial liquidity crisis also failed to materialise. Next quarter's UK GDP will be a huge focus of attention.

I think the larger negative outcomes may well come from within the euro zone itself, via the italian banking crisis and the raft of national referenda demanded by a number of nations on a variety of topics. The Italian referendum on whether to keep the euro currency will be the next major test for the federal EU political integration project.

It's still very early days and nothing much will change in terms of brexit as the negotiations inevitably drag on, but here's some positive stories you've missed to cheer us all up while we watch it all unfold!

So far, so good for the post-Brexit economy

Bank of England officials admit the British economy has not slowed down since Brexit | Daily Mail Online

Bank of England's positive statement and less unemployment boosts Theresa May's government* | Daily Mail Online

FTSE 100 smashes 6,700 and pound breaks $1.31 as [AUTOLINK]Bank of England[/AUTOLINK] survey shows 'no clear evidence' of sharp Brexit slowdown

UK property market: House prices rise nationwide following Brexit vote | UK | News | Daily Express

EU bank boss Mario Draghi says fears Brexit will damage economy are overblown | UK | News | Daily Express

Wells Fargo Said to Pay $397 Million for City of London Office - Bloomberg
Wells Fargo buys 33 Central London office for £300 million despite Brexit - Business Insider

Brexit reaction: Madison International Realty plans to spend £1 billion on London property - Business Insider

Boost for UK tourism as millions of Britons opt for a 'staycation': Terrorism fears and weak pound help bookings increase by 25% | Daily Mail Online


Ok, I think this one is just a weeeee bit OTT!!
UK economy booms following Brexit referendum vote | UK | News | Daily Express

The level of chaos and disruption that just about every major financial, business and political figure or institution warned of has not come about. The IMF projected a UK recession, the UK chancellor threatened an emergency budget, etc. Both have since retracted those predictions. The IMF has this week reduced its UK GDP forecast by 90bps, to 1.3% which is certainly a large one-step reduction, but does not project a recession. And its forecast for the UK over the next 1-3 years is higher than those it's made for Germany, France and Italy. The initial liquidity crisis also failed to materialise. Next quarter's UK GDP will be a huge focus of attention.

I had this exact discussion with my parents last night. They said something on the same lines, "look at all the doom and gloom that was predicted and none of it has come true" to which I replied "Yet!"



At this point all that has happened is that the UK has a referendum. They haven't left Europe Union, they haven't even agreed to leave the Union, in fact one of the few things they have agreed is that they won't be leaving the Union in 2016.



So with regards to all the "doom and gloom" I think it's a little early to say. Lets see what the situation is 18 months after they actually leave, rather than 4 weeks after a referendum which so far hasn't changed anything yet.