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Brexit 101

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  #701 (permalink)
 mattz   is a Vendor
 
 
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Even the algos are confused: https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-sterling-trading-insight/rage-within-the-machine-brexit-headline-blizzard-overloads-fx-algos-idUKKCN1RG0GN

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  #702 (permalink)
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carofa View Post
That is good news for the economy! that is what Trump is dreaming of !

Not sure whether you are being sarcastic or not but nearly 74 billions lost to date because of the Brexit vote sounds like a lot.

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xplorer View Post
but nearly 74 billions lost to date because of the Brexit vote sounds like a lot.

The cost / benefit should be measured over generations, not quarters. The British people voted for a future change of way of life in the UK. They want to control their own destiny. And know it seems they have some remorse when it hurts their pocket this week, while forgetting the real reason they voted. I bet if voters were polled prior to voting they would have said they were ok with a little short term pain for future benefit (with the benefit not measured only in £)

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sixtyseven View Post
The cost / benefit should be measured over generations, not quarters. The British people voted for a future change of way of life in the UK. They want to control their own destiny.

If you look at vote by age the young stronlgly voted to stay while the old voted to leave. The old won't be around to take control or see the effect over decades never mind generations. The young on the other hand, in decades time, will have to manage with what a bunch of dead people thought was best for themselves.

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Another point of view is the young have only known one alternative, while the old have known another way of life, and have something else to compare to. This of course assumes the old have a reliable memory of the past, which we often know it's not.
Said another way, the old have more experience and are often more capable of looking at the bigger picture, while the young are inexperienced and more narrowly focused. The old possibly realise money is not the be all and end all, and any financial hardship will be more than offset by other benefits.

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  #706 (permalink)
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sixtyseven View Post
The cost / benefit should be measured over generations, not quarters. The British people voted for a future change of way of life in the UK. They want to control their own destiny. And know it seems they have some remorse when it hurts their pocket this week, while forgetting the real reason they voted. I bet if voters were polled prior to voting they would have said they were ok with a little short term pain for future benefit (with the benefit not measured only in £)

I absolutely agree with you that these kinds of decisions should be measured over the long term, but there is no evidence IMO that the voters 1) had the long term picture in mind and 2) voted because of a reasoned case.


See also here


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voters 1) had the long term picture in mind and 2) voted because of a reasoned case.

My understanding is the thrust of the vote was to gain control over immigration policies. My first experience of England was a tube ride from Heathrow to Warren Street in 1999, where I was struck by how few 'native' english people there were. I left in 2008. There are benefits from integrating different cultures, but the benefits are offset by diluting the original culture. Other issues arise where there is a lack of willingness to integrate, or barriers to allow integration. I think the 'old' voted in an attempt to re-claim their heritage, or stem the rate it is being lost.

If correct, then I think it was with a long term in mind. Another 50-100 years of free movement of people and it would be difficult to determine which european city you are in, if not for the historical buildings. I think each country should hold on tightly to it's heritage and it's individual way of life, rather than mix the world all up, so it's the same where ever you go.

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sixtyseven View Post
Another point of view is the young have only known one alternative, while the old have known another way of life, and have something else to compare to. This of course assumes the old have a reliable memory of the past, which we often know it's not.
Said another way, the old have more experience and are often more capable of looking at the bigger picture, while the young are inexperienced and more narrowly focused. The old possibly realise money is not the be all and end all, and any financial hardship will be more than offset by other benefits.

The old want the England back that won World War II, and that was a dominant World Power. They are fed up of being told what to do by the French, Germans and Dutch. None of that changes with Brexit. England doesn't regain it's status as an Empire and World Ruler and if they want to trade with Europe - which they need to do - they'll still have to do what Europe tells them to do. This is why the 'leavers' don't want any deal on the table either - it doesn't get them what they want - but nothing actually will! If they do exit, how long before Scotland holds another vote for independence? Will there be a hard border with Scotland? Would that classify as getting stronger or weaker?


xplorer View Post
I absolutely agree with you that these kinds of decisions should be measured over the long term, but there is no evidence IMO that the voters 1) had the long term picture in mind and 2) voted because of a reasoned case.

and 3) actually understood what they were voting for.

sixtyseven View Post
My understanding is the thrust of the vote was to gain control over immigration policies. My first experience of England was a tube ride from Heathrow to Warren Street in 1999, where I was struck by how few 'native' english people there were. I left in 2008. There are benefits from integrating different cultures, but the benefits are offset by diluting the original culture. Other issues arise where there is a lack of willingness to integrate, or barriers to allow integration. I think the 'old' voted in an attempt to re-claim their heritage, or stem the rate it is being lost.

If correct, then I think it was with a long term in mind. Another 50-100 years of free movement of people and it would be difficult to determine which european city you are in, if not for the historical buildings. I think each country should hold on tightly to it's heritage and it's individual way of life, rather than mix the world all up, so it's the same where ever you go.

I think that was a major factor, but a secondary one. Nigel Farage's bus didn't mention immigration. The people I know (including the old) didn't have a big problem with immigration within reason. They did have a problem when people wanted their own schools, taught in their language not English, and when they want their religious law to supercede English Law.


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SMCJB View Post
The old want the England back that won World War II, and that was a dominant World Power. They are fed up of being told what to do by the French, Germans and Dutch. None of that changes with Brexit. England doesn't regain it's status as an Empire and World Ruler and if they want to trade with Europe - which they need to do - they'll still have to do what Europe tells them to do. This is why the 'leavers' don't want any deal on the table either - it doesn't get them what they want - but nothing actually will! If they do exit, how long before Scotland holds another vote for independence? Will there be a hard border with Scotland? Would that classify as getting stronger or weaker?


and 3) actually understood what they were voting for.
They did have a problem when people wanted their own schools, taught in their language not English, and when they want their religious law to supercede English Law.

I'm not sure the oldies considered regaining their status as a world power, but they wanted to retain whatever individuality that still remained. They certainly will regain a fair bit of control. EU can't dictate the relationship they have with the rest of the world. And I believe when they negotiate trade piecemeal they will get a better deal overall. I believe EU feel they have leverage due to the deadline, and the anxiety of exiting without a deal. Being hard nosed provides a disincentive for other countries to break up. They lose a lot of this leverage in the event of a hard exit. On individual issues the EU will soften their stance. That's my naive view anyway. No doubt some industries will suffer hard, while others will start to thrive.

Once some of the other stronger countries in the EU see that England doesn't implode there will be more pressure to break up. What Scotland does, I do not know. They haven't seen the same cultural shift as England has, partly because the weather is so shit, and probably other more significant reasons.

Farage was banging the immigration drum loudly. The more immigrants you have, the more the base population is diluted, and the easier it is to push through the problems you mentioned.

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I wish the best for the UK but I fear Fareed Zakaria is right, we are witnessing the fall of the Anglo-American Empire that rose after Waterloo in 1815 and has dominated the world, first through Britain, then America, until now.

Brexit will mark the end of Britains role as a great power

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srgtroy View Post
I wish the best for the UK but I fear Fareed Zakaria is right, we are witnessing the fall of the Anglo-American Empire that rose after Waterloo in 1815 and has dominated the world, first through Britain, then America, until now.

The Empire was practically no more after WW2. Those in Britain who believe otherwise IMO are still clinging to that last-century, nostalgic-view of the UK's vast reach which has no place in today's world.

But I still believe that many voters were fooled into thinking that Britain's place in the world can still be as relevant even without being part of the EU which, in my mind, is nonsense.

The economic superpowers in the world today are the US, China and the EU, of which Britain is a part of. There is zero incentive for the EU to give the UK any preferential trade treatment once Britain leaves.

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xplorer View Post
The Empire was practically no more after WW2. Those in Britain who believe otherwise IMO are still clinging to that last-century, nostalgic-view of the UK's vast reach which has no place in today's world.

But I still believe that many voters were fooled into thinking that Britain's place in the world can still be as relevant even without being part of the EU which, in my mind, is nonsense.

The economic superpowers in the world today are the US, China and the EU, of which Britain is a part of. There is zero incentive for the EU to give the UK any preferential trade treatment once Britain leaves.

Generally, I agree with you. I would say WW2 was the beginning of the end for the British Empire. Brexit would be the end of the end.

For the US, I would say Trump may be the beginning of the end. We're not quite at the end of the end, yet.

If history teaches us one thing, though, in the big picture, there is never any 'going back'. It only moves in one direction, for better or worse.

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Every time I see PM May talk about "agreeing a deal" I just feel like saying "ON a deal, you agree ON a deal". I'm sure she's speaking the King's English, but for us Yankees, it don't sound right

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xplorer View Post
The Empire was practically no more after WW2. Those in Britain who believe otherwise IMO are still clinging to that last-century, nostalgic-view of the UK's vast reach which has no place in today's world.

But I still believe that many voters were fooled into thinking that Britain's place in the world can still be as relevant even without being part of the EU which, in my mind, is nonsense.

The economic superpowers in the world today are the US, China and the EU, of which Britain is a part of. There is zero incentive for the EU to give the UK any preferential trade treatment once Britain leaves.

Guten Morgen.

With apologies for posting a recent speech in the Bundestag by one of the AfD (Far Right) politicians, but whilst the AfD may have some very unpleasant policies, I feel the speaker hits the nail on the head on this particular subject. Btw, the UK politician, Jacob Rees Mogg, leader of the right wing ERG, brought this speech to everyone's attention last week, causing quite an uproar.



Further comment this sunny morning :

1. The British Empire : WW1, not 2, changed everything. Prior to WW1, GB was by far the dominant nation in global trade, with Germany second and the US a distant third. By 1918, Germany lay in ruins, GB was deeply indebted to the US, which took over for the next 100+ years (until China likely takes over in the next decade or so).

Somewhat off-topic, but relevant in terms of radically different historical outcomes : suppose the British had not come to the aid of the French in 1914 ? France would have fallen quickly in a much shorter war, Germany becoming the dominant European power, with cousins Bill (Kaiser) & George (King) still having tea together a couple of times a year. UK & Germany remaining the leading global superpowers, no Hitler, no Holocaust, no Hiroshima.

Of course, humanity might likely have contrived another way to destroy itself, but it's worth remembering that decisions can have much larger effects than one realises.

Another, more recent example of this would be the day the UK fell out of the ERM in 1992, an event that many felt a shameful disaster at the time, yet by keeping its own currency, the UK has prospered tremendously, avoiding all the problems of the Eurozone.

2. Britain retains a significant place in the world as its fifth largest economy (out of 200 or so).

3. As Germany's - & other EU members'- largest export market in Europe, there are many reasons to do a favourable deal, as the video speaker states. The problem has been staggeringly inept negotiating skills by the UK "team".

Rant over

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don't worry to much about the UK .

Look at the Caribbean: All those English speaking Island are well off.
Almost all those French/Creole speaking Island are poor.
Furthermore all English speaking Countries have a better Birthrate than for example Japan Switzerland and Germany
(Germany only 1.38/ UK 1.8 )

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Just English is enough to stay on your own.

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jtrade View Post

2. Britain retains a significant place in the world as its fifth largest economy (out of 200 or so).

Do you think that Britain's place as 5th largest economy will be maintained, or perhaps improve or get worse, once it's out of the EU and sufficient time has passed?

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Do you think that Britain's place as 5th largest economy will be maintained, or perhaps improve or get worse, once it's out of the EU and sufficient time has passed?

It's a good question & my point was partly that in the longer term, this cannot be known, although in the short-term, I'm with Bank Governor Carney, ie. strong negative effect.

However, apart from India - which will overtake very soon either way - which economies that are presently behind the UK might overtake ? France ? Italy ? Brazil ? Hmmm.....

https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/

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jtrade View Post
It's a good question & my point was partly that in the longer term, this cannot be known, although in the short-term, I'm with Bank Governor Carney, ie. strong negative effect.

However, apart from India - which will overtake very soon either way - which economies that are presently behind the UK might overtake ? France ? Italy ? Brazil ? Hmmm.....

https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/

Italy, after China bails it out and turns it into a client state via its Belt & Road Initiative

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Do you think that Britain's place as 5th largest economy will be maintained, or perhaps improve or get worse, once it's out of the EU and sufficient time has passed?

In the near future it will be difficult to define the word "economy" as maybe Scotland is becoming independent and maybe Hawaii as well!
And maybe they all will stay on their own ! They don't need any Union just a NATO is enough.

And all those non English speaking countries will gather like EU together with EAEU https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union

So the ranking will be different . However this "Virtual British Empire" linked by language only will be powerful as well.

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carofa View Post
In the near future it will be difficult to define the word "economy" as maybe Scotland is becoming independent and maybe Hawaii as well!
And maybe they all will stay on their own ! They don't need any Union just a NATO is enough.

And all those non English speaking countries will gather like EU together with EAEU https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union

So the ranking will be different . However this "Virtual British Empire" linked by language only will be powerful as well.

NATO is a military alliance, it's got nothing to do with trade, though.

There seems to be a contradiction in what you say: first you mention some countries will stay on their own but then you cite the example of the EAEU.

This may not be a perfectly fitting example but in these cases I tend to simplify: just like the Global brands and shopping malls are able to concentrate shopping in one place commanding preferential treatment from suppliers - and in the process cornering smaller shops - at a wider scale, an economic union has a similar premise. If you are part of it, you are expected to benefit from its membership. But if you are left alone, expect to be (trade-speaking) cornered.

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xplorer View Post
NATO is a military alliance, it's got nothing to do with trade, though.
expect to be (trade-speaking) cornered.

Nato is military union and important when it comes to military trade but not relevant for other goods .

Compare Switzerland with Mauritius. what is the different and why is it more difficult for Switzerland to remain independent than for Mauritius.

Or why can Australia for example push the Tobacco price of a pack to $40 .


And by the way even NorthKorea is not cornered when you see the new Limousine of Kim

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carofa View Post
Compare Switzerland with Mauritius. what is the different and why is it more difficult for Switzerland to remain independent than for Mauritius.

Or why can Australia for example push the Tobacco price of a pack to $40 .

I have no idea on the above, you tell me why.



Quoting 
And by the way even NorthKorea is not cornered when you see the new Limousine of Kim

I don't understand, what has Kim's new limousine got to do with trade, within the context we are discussing?

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This may not be a perfectly fitting example but in these cases I tend to simplify: just like the Global brands and shopping malls are able to concentrate shopping in one place commanding preferential treatment from suppliers - and in the process cornering smaller shops - at a wider scale, an economic union has a similar premise. If you are part of it, you are expected to benefit from its membership. But if you are left alone, expect to be (trade-speaking) cornered.

There comes a point where you can go too far in one direction. If Amazon started acquiring a bunch of donkeys it's overall profitability would suffer. It would benefit the donkeys though.

In the EU, Germany probably get some trade benefits from being part of a bigger whole, but they also have to suck up a lot of shit, and thus overall I'm not sure if they are better off.

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sixtyseven View Post
In the EU, Germany probably get some trade benefits from being part of a bigger whole, but they also have to suck up a lot of shit, and thus overall I'm not sure if they are better off.

Germany is - in economic terms - far and away the greatest beneficiary of the Eurozone & therefore in essence of the EU.

Because as an industrial producer it is so much more efficient than every other EU nation & is not burdened like Switzerland with a hugely stronger currency, it continues to crush its Eurozone neighbours. This cannot change as long as Germany remains in the Eurozone.

Regardless of what the German public may think and its politicians may say, the only reason Germany bailed out Greece was because Germans banks had profitably lent them so many billions. Germany "bailed out" itself!

It's amazing how these things remain hidden from the public eye. The QE carried out by the major national banks to "save" us all from global meltdown , was just a massive state handout to those that caused the problems, ultimately paid for by tax payers and savers. I'd explain why, but I've just come off the golf course (birdie on the last ) and it's time for my bath...

My guess remains that the Brexit situation only appears so ludicrous because we do not really know what is going on behind the scenes.

... and don't forget, I STILL don't think Brexit is going to happen (uh-oh, the men in white coats are coming for me...).

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Germany is - in economic terms - far and away the greatest beneficiary of the Eurozone & therefore in essence of the EU.

Thanks. I clearly need to do update my thinking. I could understand the benefits for the EU up to '95, but after that I assumed it was all downhill. If I understand you, things got even better still for Germany from '95?

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Germany is - in economic terms - far and away the greatest beneficiary of the Eurozone & therefore in essence of the EU.

Because as an industrial producer it is so much more efficient than every other EU nation & is not burdened like Switzerland with a hugely stronger currency, it continues to crush its Eurozone neighbours. This cannot change as long as Germany remains in the Eurozone.

Regardless of what the German public may think and its politicians may say, the only reason Germany bailed out Greece was because Germans banks had profitably lent them so many billions. Germany "bailed out" itself!

It's amazing how these things remain hidden from the public eye. The QE carried out by the major national banks to "save" us all from global meltdown , was just a massive state handout to those that caused the problems, ultimately paid for by tax payers and savers. I'd explain why, but I've just come off the golf course (birdie on the last ) and it's time for my bath...

My guess remains that the Brexit situation only appears so ludicrous because we do not really know what is going on behind the scenes.

... and don't forget, I STILL don't think Brexit is going to happen (uh-oh, the men in white coats are coming for me...).


Moaaahahaha - did the white coats get you? I think you're of a different opinion now
I enjoyed seing how the very own promissed thing that brought current party in power is the one and only thing that will burrow it to the ground for another decade or so. But hey, pure sheer incompetence (starting from how they run the pre-vote campaign, to the current circus nobody laughs at anymore) doesn't come without a political cost.

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An interesting list of what the Leave supporters said about trade negotiations to promote the vote to leave


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An interesting list of what the Leave supporters said about trade negotiations to promote the vote to leave


Now that is a great link - what a bunch of incompetents. Thanks !

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The US investment guru said he would like his firm, Berkshire Hathaway, to be better known across the Atlantic.

"We're hoping for a deal in the UK and/or in Europe, no matter how Brexit comes out," the billionaire told his annual shareholders' meeting.

"I have the feeling it was a mistake," he said of the UK's vote to leave.

However, he added: "It doesn't destroy my appetite in the least for making a very large acquisition in the UK."

Mr Buffett, known as the "Sage of Omaha", is chairman and chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, which owns dozens of US stocks.

The company reported first-quarter earnings of $21.7bn (£16.5bn) on Saturday, a marked improvement on last year's first-quarter loss of $1.1bn.




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So, Mother Theresa will leave soon and there will be a new Tory leader - and therefore PM - around the end of June.

The chance of a WTO / "hard" Brexit just went up dramatically.

Mother T had to go, but if the next PM is BoJo or Gove, God help us...

Mind you, it's helping my 6B D1 long :


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LONDON (Reuters) - Uncertainty over Britain’s departure from the European Union has triggered a sharp drop in business confidence in Europe over the past six months, a survey showed on Thursday.

Only 50% of European business leaders said they were confident about the ability of their firms to grow and prosper, compared with 70% in November 2018, the survey by insurer CNA Hardy found.

Only 36% of British business leaders were confident, down slightly from 39% in the previous survey.

“Hard Brexit is becoming more of a reality,” for continental European as well as British business leaders, Dave Brosnan, CEO of CNA Hardy, told Reuters.

Weaker economic conditions and a rise in populism in Europe are also dampening business confidence, he added.

Meanwhile, confidence among North American business leaders fell to 59% from 64% previously, a drop Brosnan said was linked to uncertainty over upcoming elections in Canada and the United States.




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The U.K.’s planned exit from the European Union may have already pushed the U.K. into a technical recession, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

In a gloomy set of new forecasts, Niesr predicted that, even assuming a smooth exit in October, the nation will grow 1% in 2019 and 1% in 2020. There’s an around a one-in-four chance that the economy is already shrinking, the think tank said.

The outlook worsens if there is a no-deal Brexit, with Niesr seeing the possibility of a “severe” downturn in the event of a disorderly departure. Even if an “orderly” no deal exit is secured, Niesr says the economy will stagnate next year, with inflation accelerating to 4.1% as the pound drops about 10%.

“However we look at it, there will not be much economic joy in a no-deal Brexit,” said Niesr director Jagjit Chadha.

The pound fell after the report and traded at $1.2464 as of 10:08 a.m. in London.

GDP falls by around 2% following an orderly no-deal Brexit under the Niesr forecasts, but remains flat if there is a policy response. The long-term impact will still be that output is 5% lower “in a permanent way” relative to a soft Brexit or remaining in the U.K., the think tank said.




Niesr sees a 30% chance of the economy shrinking in 2020. In an orderly no-deal Brexit, the BOE will cut the key rate to 0.25% by end of 2019, but then it rebounds sharply to 1.75% by end of 2020. The budget deficit rises to 2.7% of GDP in an orderly no deal, breaking the rule that structural borrowing should be below 2% in 2020-21.



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The Brexit campaign was based on complete financial lies. They fooled a LOT of people who thought these Brexit politicians were telling the truth.
It will be quite interesting if Johnson will commit 350million GBP a week to the NHS amongst all the other money he has promised. These alone may be his undoing.



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Break-up of the union is my only concern. Less chance of Corbyn now female millennial is leading Libs. But Sturgeon will push for another referendum soon. I have a close friend who is a voice for the european project (a German academic). Very smart guy but blinkered. All he sees is the benefit of a federal union. I see Russia and China as a threat and see the benefit of solidarity. I also see the flaws. But little England without our union neighbours would be a tragedy.

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The pound sank to a 28-month low against the dollar as Boris Johnson's government toughened its rhetoric on Brexit.

Sterling dipped 1.1% to $1.2242 and €1.1004 respectively.

The currency could fall further, according to analysts at ING Group, as traders appear to have been betting on a last-minute deal being reached.

Many business lobby groups have asked that no-deal be withdrawn as an option to keep investment flowing into the UK.

The pound dropped after "the events over the weekend, where the current stance of the new government became clear", said Petr Krpata, a currency strategist at ING Group.



Michael Gove, who is in charge of planning for no-deal, has said the UK government is currently "working on the assumption" of that very outcome.

He said his team still aimed to come to an agreement with Brussels, but writing in the Sunday Times, he added: "No deal is now a very real prospect."

Mr Krpata says ING Group's assumption is that an early election will take place and that the pound will sink as low as €1.05 and $1.18.

The last low for sterling was $1.2049, reached in January 2017. The record low was $1.0545 from March 1985, just before G7 powers acted to constrain a particularly strong US currency.



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Johnson refuses to meet EU leaders unless they scrap backstop

Morning headline above - finally, the Trump approach (good idea at this stage).

I am strongly anti-Brexit, think it's utterly stupid, BUT I notice as this drags on my ire is shifting from the staggering incompetence of the UK politicians (on both sides) to the equally staggering stupidity of the EU negotiators. Barnier & Co approached this as some kind of business deal to outwit the other side, which they did with ease, but failed to see that unless there is at least a semblance of Win:Win, the only thing that will happen is Lose:Lose.

Pressure is mounting to extreme levels on both sides of The Channel : very visible in the UK, but there is steam escaping all around the German border - German exports are already suffering from the significant drop in China trade, they don't want their #1 EU export market for their auto industry putting up 10% WTO tariffs. I'd guess some pretty desperate behind-the-scenes lobbying going on all over the place !

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There maybe a lot of sheep farmers going bust: lesson don’t leave a 500 million person market w trillion dollar GDP:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/boris-johnsons-no-deal-brexit-could-lead-british-lambs-to-slaughter/2019/08/15/274f95d6-b78e-11e9-8e83-4e6687e99814_story.html


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Good to see that after its summer hols, the UK parliament is conducting itself with its usual gravitas (NOT) !

Opinion poll : will the UK leave the EU by the end of October ?

I say not.

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Seeing as there may be interest in discussing a possible 'Brexit' (UK leaving the EU) I thought I'd start a thread about it.

Of course the discussion in here should be predominantly of an economic persuasion.

Title idea courtesy of @jtrade.

I agree with BREXIT (and GREXIT)


Τό θέμα τού Brexit είναι πρωτίστως εθνικό (γιά κάθε κράτος , μέλος τής EU), πολιτικό, ηθικό, καί κυρίως
ζήτημα εθνικής ελευθερίας καί ανεξαρτησίας καί δευρευόντως οικονομικό. Είναι ανοησία νά υποστηρίζεται ότι
είναι κυρίως (ή μόνο) οικονομικό. Η εμπειρία τών τελευταίων ετών έχει δείξει ότι η Γερμανία έχει στόχο
(καί πάντα είχε μετά τόν δεύτερο Παγκόσμιο πόλεμο) νά κυριεύσει οικονομικά τήν Ευρώπη, καί, μέσω τής
οικονομικής της κυριαρχίας νά προχωρήσει στήν εθνική υποδούλωση όλης τής Ευρώπης,
κι έτσι νά καταφέρει ότι δέν κατάφερε στό 2ο Παγκόσμιο πόλεμο όπου ηττήθηκε συντριπτικά.
Ο Winston Churcill σοφά έλεγε τότε ότι ¨η Γερμανία πρέπει νά βομβαρδίζεται κάθε 50 χρόνια . Γιατί?
Αυτοί (οι Γερμανοί) ξέρουν τήν αιτία.". Οι Βρεττανοί μόλις πρόσφατα realized τόν κίνδυνο τής
υποδούλωσής τους στήν Γερμανία. Δέν θέλουν, καί δικαίως, νά αποτελέσουν τμήμα τού ευρωπαικού
Γερμανικού προτεκτοράτου, θέλουν πρωτίστως νά διατηρήσουν τήν εθνική τους κυριαρχία καί ελευθερία τους . Τό ίδιο, πρό πολλού έχει realized καί η Ελλάδα. Καί θέλουμε (εμείς οι Εληνες) πίσω τή χαμένη ελευθερία μας. Μού φαίνεται παράδοξο (άν όχι γελοίο) νά εμφανίζονται κάποιοι Εγγλέζοι πού νά προτάσσουν τά "οικονομικά" συμφέροντα τής χώρας τους έναντι τής εθνικής τους ελευθερίας καί ανεξαρτησίας. Μού θυμίζουν αυτοί κάποιους πού μπορούν νά πουλάνε τή γυναίκα τους αντί χρημάτων !
Πρέπει όμως νά γνωρίζουν όλοι ότι η ελευθερία ενός έθνους έχει μεγάλο τίμημα καί απαιτεί θυσίες.
Εμείς οι Ελληνες δείξαμε πάντα σέ όλο τόν κόσμο τήν αξία καί τό υπέρτατο αγαθό τής ελευθερίας.
Γι'αυτό καί ο δικός μας Εθνικός μας Υμνος είναι αφιερωμένος στήν Ελευθερία. Οχι μόνο τή δική μας
αλλά ολοκλήρου τού κόσμου. Η Ελλάδα δίδαξε τό ιδανικό τής ελευθερίας σέ όλο τόν κόσμο, τά ανώτατα
ιδανικά τού ανθρώπου καί έναν μέγιστο πολιτισμό πού όμοιός του δέν υπήρξε ποτέ.
Κάποιοι όμως έκλεψαν (καί συνεχίζουν νά κλέβουν) αυτά τά αριστουργήματα τού ελληνικού πανανθρώπινου
πολιστισμού, πάνω στόν οποίο στηρίχθηκε όλος ο μετέπεια δυτικός πολιτισμός. Γιά παράδειγμα κλέφτης
είναι καί η Αγγλία πού αρνείται νά επιστρέψει τά αριστουργήματικά γλυπτά τού Παρθενώνα τής Ακροπόλως
τών Αθηνών (πρωτεύουσας τής Ελλάδας). Κλέφτης είναι καί η αρχαιοκάπηλη Γερμανία πού έκλεψε
καί αυτή πλήθος αρχαιοτήτων τής Ελλάδος. Αλλά η Γερμανία δέν είναι μόνο κλέφτης, αλλά
παγόσμιος εγκληματίας (κατά τόν 2ο Πακόσμιο πόλεμο) πού σκότωσε πάνω από 1.000,000 Ελληνες
(καί πολλά εκαταμύρια Ευρωπαίους, όπως Πολωνούς, Ρώσους, Γάλλους, Βέλγους, Εγγλέζους,
Γιουγκοσλάβους κλπ) καί αρνείται νά αποζημιώσει πάνω από 1 τρισεκατομύρια ευρώ στήν Ελλάδα
γιά πολεμικές αποζημιώσεις, κατοχικό δάνειο, καί μιά σειρά από ανείπωτες καταστροφές στήν Ελλάδα.
καί έχει τό θράσος σήμερα νά κουνά τό δάκτυλο στήν Ελλάδα καί σέ όλη τήν άλλη Ευρώπη.
Ποιοί ? αυτοί (οι Γερμανοί) πού τό κράτος τους θά πρεπε νά μήν υπήρχε κάν στόν χάρτη αλλά νά είχε
διαμοιρασθεί ως λάφυρα μεταξύ τών νικητών τού 2ου Παγκοσμίου πολέμου (μεταξύ τών οποίων καί η
Ελλάδα, πού ήταν η πρώτη χώρα πού αντιστάθηκε ηρωικά καί νίκησε τό 1940 τήν γελοία φασιστική Ιταλία).
Γιά τήν ηρωική αυτή αντίσταση καί νίκη τής Ελλάδος ο Winston Churcill είπε τότε ὁι ήρωες πολεμούν
σάν Ελληνες". Συμπέρασμα : ναί στό BREXIT, στό GREXIT, καί σέ όλα τά ΕΧΙΤ. ΕΧΙΤ σημαίνει νέα νίκη
κατά τής Γερμανίας, τού Γερμανικού προτεκτοράτου. Τά λεφτά δέν είναι τό πάν κύριοι στή ζωή. Τό πάν είναι
νά είσαι ΕΛΕΥΘΕΡΟΣ κι άς είσαι καί λιγότερο πλούσιος.

I REPEAT : YES TO BREXIT, TO GREXIT, TO EVERY EXIT. THIS IS NOT THE EU WE DREAMED OF. BECAUSE THERE WILL ALWAYS BE SOMEONE (POWERFULL) WHO WILL WANT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF HIS POWER AND WILL EVENTUALLY WOULD WANT TO CONQUER THE REST OF EUROPEAN COUNTRIES. THIS IS HAS BEEN PROVEN TO BE ALWAYS THE CASE IN EUROPEAN AND HUMAN HISTORY. GERMANY DID THAT, OTHERS WILL DO THE SAME. AND THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN AGAIN.-

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 SMCJB 
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jtrade View Post
Good to see that after its summer hols, the UK parliament is conducting itself with its usual gravitas (NOT) !

Opinion poll : will the UK leave the EU by the end of October ?

I say not.

After yesterday I would tend to agree with you.
How about by Feb 1st (which would allow a 3 month delay)?
On a similar note will Boris be Prime minister on Feb 1st?

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ellinas View Post
I agree with BREXIT (and GREXIT)

Well, I agree partly in principle, but not in full detail - as I think the EU is overall a super idea if Germany is removed from the Eurozone - with your post, a Google translation of which I post below (I won't write more as we will veer far off topic).

But you did not answer my question with your opinion of the present situation in the UK parliament a propos Brexit by 31 October, yes or no ?

The subject of Brexit is primarily national (for every EU member state), political, moral, and above all
a question of national freedom and independence and indirectly economic. It is nonsense to claim that
is mostly (or only) economical. Experience in recent years has shown that Germany has a goal
(and always had it after World War II) to conquer Europe financially, and through
economic sovereignty to pursue national slavery throughout Europe,
and so he managed not to succeed in World War II where he was defeated overwhelmingly.
Winston Churcill wisely said then that Germany should be bombed every 50 years. Why?
They (the Germans) know the reason. "The Brits have just recently realized the danger of
enslaved in Germany. They do not want, and rightly so, to be part of the European one
The German protectorate, first and foremost, wants to preserve their national sovereignty and freedom. Greece, too, has long been realized. And we (we Greeks) want our lost freedom back. It seems paradoxical (if not ridiculous) for some Englishmen to advocate their country's "financial" interests over their national freedom and independence. They remind me of some who can sell their wife for money!
But everyone must be aware that the freedom of a nation has a great price and requires sacrifices.
We Greeks have always shown throughout the world the value and supreme good of freedom.
That's why our National Anthem is dedicated to Freedom. Not only ours
but the whole world. Greece has taught the ideal of freedom throughout the world, the highest
ideals of man and a great civilization that has never been the same.
But some have stolen (and continue to steal) these masterpieces of Greek humanity
civilization, on which all subsequent Western civilization was based. For example a thief
it is England who refuses to return the masterpiece sculptures of the Acropolis Parthenon
of Athens (capital of Greece). Thief is also the ancient Germany he stole
and this multitude of antiquities of Greece. But Germany is not only a thief, but
world criminal (during World War II) who killed more than 1,000,000 Greeks
(and many millions of Europeans, including Poles, Russians, French, Belgians, English,
Yugoslavs etc) and refuses to compensate more than 1 trillion euros in Greece
for war damages, a home loan, and a series of unprecedented disasters in Greece.
and she has the audacity to shake her finger in Greece and all over Europe today.
Who ? they (the Germans) where their state should not have been on the map but had
distributed as a spoil among the victors of the Second World War (including
Greece, which was the first country to heroically resist and defeat ridiculously fascist Italy in 1940).
For this heroic resistance and victory of Greece Winston Churcill then said What heroes are fighting
as Greeks ". Conclusion: to BREXIT, to GREXIT, and to all EXIT. EXIT means new victory
against Germany, the German protectorate. Money is not everything in life. It is everything
to be FREE and to be less wealthy.

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After yesterday I would tend to agree with you.
How about by Feb 1st (which would allow a 3 month delay)?
On a similar note will Boris be Prime minister on Feb 1st?

Two more good questions - and as you know I like to take rather bold "Brexit punts" :

I say No & No !

Quelle horreur.... (for reasons too numerous to explain)

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The pound rallied for a third day after Parliament tore up U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit strategy and denied his request for a snap election, tempering fears of further political turmoil.

Sterling headed for its biggest weekly gain since May after lawmakers voted to force Johnson to delay Brexit for three months. An election is still on the horizon with the prime minister losing his majority earlier this week, but it may not come until after an extension to the deadline has been set, reducing the risk of a chaotic exit from the European Union.



The U.K. currency has recovered the ground it lost since Johnson announced last week that he would suspend Parliament for over a month ahead of the Brexit deadline, setting off a rebellion which ultimately led to lawmakers seeking to block him from pursuing a no-deal. It is headed for a weekly gain of 1.5%.

ohnson plans to appeal directly to voters in a speech “to decide what they want” through an election, according to a statement from his office. Still, he needs two-thirds of Parliament to back him in order to call one, and the opposition Labour party wants the Brexit delay to pass into law first.

“My expectation is Brexit is delayed until Jan. 31 with an election after the initial deadline and before the end of January,” said Neil Jones, head of currency sales for financial institutions at Mizuho Bank Ltd. “A delay for both Brexit and a general election will continue to send the pound higher.”




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 SMCJB 
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Saw this on Twitter. Nobody wants an election except the Liberal Democrats!



Source Mujtaba Rahman @Mij_Europe via Joumanna Bercetche @CNBCJou

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  #745 (permalink)
 Grantx 
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I think the EU is overall a super idea if Germany is removed from the Eurozone

I don't know if I am reading your post correctly but you seem to be suggesting that Germany is evil and everyone else suffers under their grand masterplan. Let me be clear that I am not for or against anyone. Things just are what they are. Here is how I see it:

The system is a natural heirarchy. Someone has to be at the top. At this time and place it happens to be Germany (talking about the Eurozone). Everyone else plays the victim. Shame. So sad.

Germany seem to run their economy very efficiently. There is a reason they are the most powerful nation in the Eurozone. One thing I like is that plumbers, electricians, engineers and other artisans, are respected on the same level as doctors and lawyers. This is how it should be.

The way this entitled group of whingeing crybabies carry on about their sovereignity is embarrassing. It was a sovereign decision to join the Eurozone in the first place but that was back when there was a spirit of cooperation and unity amongst leaders of nations. Clowns run the show now. Unfortunately, the system needs to break so that these twats go running for the hills and true leaders get a chance to step up and take responsibility. If brexit then grexit then frexit is what it takes then so be it.

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 SMCJB 
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Grantx View Post
I don't know if I am reading your post correctly but you seem to be suggesting that Germany is evil and everyone else suffers under their grand masterplan.

I think he's suggesting even more than that!


Grantx View Post
The system is a natural heirarchy. Someone has to be at the top. At this time and place it happens to be Germany (talking about the Eurozone).

They are the largest country in Europe ~ 25% bigger than the UK or France, 37% than Italy (38%), 75% then Spain, more than 100% bigger than Poland and more than 400% bigger than 7th largest Romania.

On a tangent this brings up an interesting point that Germany alone represents 16% of the EU. The three largest represent >40%, the 4 largest >50%, 5 largest > 60% and the 6 largest > 70%! In contrast the smallest 14 countries represent just 10% of the EU and the 10 smallest just 5%. This becomes interesting because for votes to pass you need a majority of countries and population to pass. So you could technically have the 15 largest countries representing more than 90% of the population of the EU lose a vote if the 13 smallest stood together. (Sounds as bad as the US electoral college!)


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Unfortunately, the system needs to break so that these twats go running for the hills and true leaders get a chance to step up and take responsibility. If brexit then grexit then frexit is what it takes then so be it.

Unfortunately you are probably correct.

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 jtrade 
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Ahem - if I may clear up the confusion about my position on both Germany and the UK....

The long italicised paragraph in my post yesterday was a Google translation from the post of ellenas , which he wrote in Greek, & not my opinion, although I do agree with some of it.

I have indeed posted here in the past that the reason that Germany is the leading economic power within the EU is simply because they manufacture most things better and more efficiently - and have done so for decades. Vorsprung durch Technik versus Fix It Again Tony, sort of thing.

The reason I agree with George Soros that Germany should be removed from the Eurozone (NOT to be confused with the EU, as appears to have been done) is simply because the only way other Eurozone nations will be able to compete with Germany is via the mechanism of currency devaluation. This cannot happen if they have the same currency. Capisce ?

With regard to giving true leaders a chance to step up. Which true leaders would these be - the kind that have not stepped up !?

The EU experiment, including its Eurozone component, is not quite broken, but needs to change its prior direction (which was increasingly towards a fully federal Europe) & I think this is now recognised. It's taken a long time to get into this mess & will take longer to resolve (Brexit or no Brexit). Remember some of the things that David Cameron asked for and was then rebuffed - which triggered the Referendum vote - are now considered entirely reasonable by many EU nations (for example, the proposed requirement that immigrants from the EU work in their new host nation for at least 2 years before being able to receive unemployment benefits).

Edit : & one more thing .. I have also commented on this thread about the absurdity of Germany complaining about bailing out Greece, as the billions lent to Greeks, who were then unable to repay, was largely lent by German banks... so Germany was complaining about bailing out the bad loans of its own banks... or something like that (time for my supper, please forgive me for not reminding myself what I wrote).

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 SMCJB 
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well said

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 Grantx 
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The reason I agree with George Soros that Germany should be removed from the Eurozone (NOT to be confused with the EU, as appears to have been done) is simply because the only way other Eurozone nations will be able to compete with Germany is via the mechanism of currency devaluation. This cannot happen if they have the same currency. Capisce ?

You chaps are much better informed than I could ever hope to be - what a great way to learn. Excuse my limited knowledge on the matter.

But this...what would motivate Germany into leaving the Eurozone? Why woud Germany invite competition like that when they can rather be part of it and bend the system to their will? And I dont think I like the idea of them leaving because with them in, its the devil we know. All that happens with them gone is that the next biggest in line steps up and manipulates the system to their advantage. You make it sound like with Germany out of the picture, the remaining clowns will miraculously all work toether in a joint effort to stimulate the Eurozone.

There is no opposing force at the moment so the system is getting hotter resulting in more and more disorder. This is entropy. In a closed system something wll have to pop. I hope it doesnt but it seems inevitable.

A bit abstract but I think in pictures so yeah, thats how how I see it.

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 jtrade 
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Grantx View Post
But this...what would motivate Germany into leaving the Eurozone?.

You hit the nail right on the head : Germany is the biggest beneficiary of the Euro by far & will never leave (as long as this situation persists)... bit of a Eurozone Catch 22 !

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 SMCJB 
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Interesting twitter thread (rolled up) on the legality issues of the latest British Brexit debacle!

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1185716934601519104.html

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 JohnS 
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Nearly 7 billion pounds left on the table. Just like those Welsh sheep farmers needing to “unexpectedly “ look for a new market for their fresh lamb meat, My guess this will not be last instance of “unforeseen “ costs of Brexit. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-gives-up-7bn-windfall-from-european-investment-bank-tq0qskgfc?utm_source=Unica&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=james_RA_daily_fixed_timing


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 jtrade 
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Adios, EU.... now when & where can I apply for my Scottish passport !?

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 SMCJB 
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So if Scotland, Wales and N.Ireland all (or in part) leave the UK, I guess it will become known as the Former United Kingdom, or FUK!

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 xplorer 
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 iq200 
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SMCJB View Post
So if Scotland, Wales and N.Ireland all (or in part) leave the UK, I guess it will become known as the Former United Kingdom, or FUK!


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 JohnS 
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SMCJB View Post
So if Scotland, Wales and N.Ireland all (or in part) leave the UK, I guess it will become known as the Former United Kingdom, or FUK!

Well fresh Seafood exports to the EU may just be the catalyst for Scot-xit from the UK. Like those Welsh sheep owners, the Scottish fishermen, who rely on fast transport to the Continent, are being screwed because of new customs Paperwork. The whole concept of UK being Free-Traders in 2021 seems ill-judged.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-scotland-fishing-exclusive/exclusive-its-a-catastrophe-scottish-fishermen-halt-exports-due-to-brexit-red-tape-idUSKBN29D0U0

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 LastDino 
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SMCJB View Post
So if Scotland, Wales and N.Ireland all (or in part) leave the UK, I guess it will become known as the Former United Kingdom, or FUK!

That has to be the funniest thing I've read in a while

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allonzo
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it's crazy what happens with this BRexit,

here where i live, we hear everything and the opposite

hard situation

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