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LONDON (Reuters) - Uncertainty over Britain’s departure from the European Union has triggered a sharp drop in business confidence in Europe over the past six months, a survey showed on Thursday.
Only 50% of European business leaders said they were confident about the ability of their firms to grow and prosper, compared with 70% in November 2018, the survey by insurer CNA Hardy found.
Only 36% of British business leaders were confident, down slightly from 39% in the previous survey.
“Hard Brexit is becoming more of a reality,” for continental European as well as British business leaders, Dave Brosnan, CEO of CNA Hardy, told Reuters.
Weaker economic conditions and a rise in populism in Europe are also dampening business confidence, he added.
Meanwhile, confidence among North American business leaders fell to 59% from 64% previously, a drop Brosnan said was linked to uncertainty over upcoming elections in Canada and the United States.
The U.K.’s planned exit from the European Union may have already pushed the U.K. into a technical recession, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
In a gloomy set of new forecasts, Niesr predicted that, even assuming a smooth exit in October, the nation will grow 1% in 2019 and 1% in 2020. There’s an around a one-in-four chance that the economy is already shrinking, the think tank said.
The outlook worsens if there is a no-deal Brexit, with Niesr seeing the possibility of a “severe” downturn in the event of a disorderly departure. Even if an “orderly” no deal exit is secured, Niesr says the economy will stagnate next year, with inflation accelerating to 4.1% as the pound drops about 10%.
“However we look at it, there will not be much economic joy in a no-deal Brexit,” said Niesr director Jagjit Chadha.
The pound fell after the report and traded at $1.2464 as of 10:08 a.m. in London.
GDP falls by around 2% following an orderly no-deal Brexit under the Niesr forecasts, but remains flat if there is a policy response. The long-term impact will still be that output is 5% lower “in a permanent way” relative to a soft Brexit or remaining in the U.K., the think tank said.
Niesr sees a 30% chance of the economy shrinking in 2020. In an orderly no-deal Brexit, the BOE will cut the key rate to 0.25% by end of 2019, but then it rebounds sharply to 1.75% by end of 2020. The budget deficit rises to 2.7% of GDP in an orderly no deal, breaking the rule that structural borrowing should be below 2% in 2020-21.
The Brexit campaign was based on complete financial lies. They fooled a LOT of people who thought these Brexit politicians were telling the truth.
It will be quite interesting if Johnson will commit 350million GBP a week to the NHS amongst all the other money he has promised. These alone may be his undoing.
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Break-up of the union is my only concern. Less chance of Corbyn now female millennial is leading Libs. But Sturgeon will push for another referendum soon. I have a close friend who is a voice for the european project (a German academic). Very smart guy but blinkered. All he sees is the benefit of a federal union. I see Russia and China as a threat and see the benefit of solidarity. I also see the flaws. But little England without our union neighbours would be a tragedy.
The pound sank to a 28-month low against the dollar as Boris Johnson's government toughened its rhetoric on Brexit.
Sterling dipped 1.1% to $1.2242 and €1.1004 respectively.
The currency could fall further, according to analysts at ING Group, as traders appear to have been betting on a last-minute deal being reached.
Many business lobby groups have asked that no-deal be withdrawn as an option to keep investment flowing into the UK.
The pound dropped after "the events over the weekend, where the current stance of the new government became clear", said Petr Krpata, a currency strategist at ING Group.
Michael Gove, who is in charge of planning for no-deal, has said the UK government is currently "working on the assumption" of that very outcome.
He said his team still aimed to come to an agreement with Brussels, but writing in the Sunday Times, he added: "No deal is now a very real prospect."
Mr Krpata says ING Group's assumption is that an early election will take place and that the pound will sink as low as €1.05 and $1.18.
The last low for sterling was $1.2049, reached in January 2017. The record low was $1.0545 from March 1985, just before G7 powers acted to constrain a particularly strong US currency.
Johnson refuses to meet EU leaders unless they scrap backstop
Morning headline above - finally, the Trump approach (good idea at this stage).
I am strongly anti-Brexit, think it's utterly stupid, BUT I notice as this drags on my ire is shifting from the staggering incompetence of the UK politicians (on both sides) to the equally staggering stupidity of the EU negotiators. Barnier & Co approached this as some kind of business deal to outwit the other side, which they did with ease, but failed to see that unless there is at least a semblance of Win:Win, the only thing that will happen is Lose:Lose.
Pressure is mounting to extreme levels on both sides of The Channel : very visible in the UK, but there is steam escaping all around the German border - German exports are already suffering from the significant drop in China trade, they don't want their #1 EU export market for their auto industry putting up 10% WTO tariffs. I'd guess some pretty desperate behind-the-scenes lobbying going on all over the place !
Τό θέμα τού Brexit είναι πρωτίστως εθνικό (γιά κάθε κράτος , μέλος τής EU), πολιτικό, ηθικό, καί κυρίως
ζήτημα εθνικής ελευθερίας καί ανεξαρτησίας καί δευρευόντως οικονομικό. Είναι ανοησία νά υποστηρίζεται ότι
είναι κυρίως (ή μόνο) οικονομικό. Η εμπειρία τών τελευταίων ετών έχει δείξει ότι η Γερμανία έχει στόχο
(καί πάντα είχε μετά τόν δεύτερο Παγκόσμιο πόλεμο) νά κυριεύσει οικονομικά τήν Ευρώπη, καί, μέσω τής
οικονομικής της κυριαρχίας νά προχωρήσει στήν εθνική υποδούλωση όλης τής Ευρώπης,
κι έτσι νά καταφέρει ότι δέν κατάφερε στό 2ο Παγκόσμιο πόλεμο όπου ηττήθηκε συντριπτικά.
Ο Winston Churcill σοφά έλεγε τότε ότι ¨η Γερμανία πρέπει νά βομβαρδίζεται κάθε 50 χρόνια . Γιατί?
Αυτοί (οι Γερμανοί) ξέρουν τήν αιτία.". Οι Βρεττανοί μόλις πρόσφατα realized τόν κίνδυνο τής
υποδούλωσής τους στήν Γερμανία. Δέν θέλουν, καί δικαίως, νά αποτελέσουν τμήμα τού ευρωπαικού
Γερμανικού προτεκτοράτου, θέλουν πρωτίστως νά διατηρήσουν τήν εθνική τους κυριαρχία καί ελευθερία τους . Τό ίδιο, πρό πολλού έχει realized καί η Ελλάδα. Καί θέλουμε (εμείς οι Εληνες) πίσω τή χαμένη ελευθερία μας. Μού φαίνεται παράδοξο (άν όχι γελοίο) νά εμφανίζονται κάποιοι Εγγλέζοι πού νά προτάσσουν τά "οικονομικά" συμφέροντα τής χώρας τους έναντι τής εθνικής τους ελευθερίας καί ανεξαρτησίας. Μού θυμίζουν αυτοί κάποιους πού μπορούν νά πουλάνε τή γυναίκα τους αντί χρημάτων !
Πρέπει όμως νά γνωρίζουν όλοι ότι η ελευθερία ενός έθνους έχει μεγάλο τίμημα καί απαιτεί θυσίες.
Εμείς οι Ελληνες δείξαμε πάντα σέ όλο τόν κόσμο τήν αξία καί τό υπέρτατο αγαθό τής ελευθερίας.
Γι'αυτό καί ο δικός μας Εθνικός μας Υμνος είναι αφιερωμένος στήν Ελευθερία. Οχι μόνο τή δική μας
αλλά ολοκλήρου τού κόσμου. Η Ελλάδα δίδαξε τό ιδανικό τής ελευθερίας σέ όλο τόν κόσμο, τά ανώτατα
ιδανικά τού ανθρώπου καί έναν μέγιστο πολιτισμό πού όμοιός του δέν υπήρξε ποτέ.
Κάποιοι όμως έκλεψαν (καί συνεχίζουν νά κλέβουν) αυτά τά αριστουργήματα τού ελληνικού πανανθρώπινου
πολιστισμού, πάνω στόν οποίο στηρίχθηκε όλος ο μετέπεια δυτικός πολιτισμός. Γιά παράδειγμα κλέφτης
είναι καί η Αγγλία πού αρνείται νά επιστρέψει τά αριστουργήματικά γλυπτά τού Παρθενώνα τής Ακροπόλως
τών Αθηνών (πρωτεύουσας τής Ελλάδας). Κλέφτης είναι καί η αρχαιοκάπηλη Γερμανία πού έκλεψε
καί αυτή πλήθος αρχαιοτήτων τής Ελλάδος. Αλλά η Γερμανία δέν είναι μόνο κλέφτης, αλλά
παγόσμιος εγκληματίας (κατά τόν 2ο Πακόσμιο πόλεμο) πού σκότωσε πάνω από 1.000,000 Ελληνες
(καί πολλά εκαταμύρια Ευρωπαίους, όπως Πολωνούς, Ρώσους, Γάλλους, Βέλγους, Εγγλέζους,
Γιουγκοσλάβους κλπ) καί αρνείται νά αποζημιώσει πάνω από 1 τρισεκατομύρια ευρώ στήν Ελλάδα
γιά πολεμικές αποζημιώσεις, κατοχικό δάνειο, καί μιά σειρά από ανείπωτες καταστροφές στήν Ελλάδα.
καί έχει τό θράσος σήμερα νά κουνά τό δάκτυλο στήν Ελλάδα καί σέ όλη τήν άλλη Ευρώπη.
Ποιοί ? αυτοί (οι Γερμανοί) πού τό κράτος τους θά πρεπε νά μήν υπήρχε κάν στόν χάρτη αλλά νά είχε
διαμοιρασθεί ως λάφυρα μεταξύ τών νικητών τού 2ου Παγκοσμίου πολέμου (μεταξύ τών οποίων καί η
Ελλάδα, πού ήταν η πρώτη χώρα πού αντιστάθηκε ηρωικά καί νίκησε τό 1940 τήν γελοία φασιστική Ιταλία).
Γιά τήν ηρωική αυτή αντίσταση καί νίκη τής Ελλάδος ο Winston Churcill είπε τότε ὁι ήρωες πολεμούν
σάν Ελληνες". Συμπέρασμα : ναί στό BREXIT, στό GREXIT, καί σέ όλα τά ΕΧΙΤ. ΕΧΙΤ σημαίνει νέα νίκη
κατά τής Γερμανίας, τού Γερμανικού προτεκτοράτου. Τά λεφτά δέν είναι τό πάν κύριοι στή ζωή. Τό πάν είναι
νά είσαι ΕΛΕΥΘΕΡΟΣ κι άς είσαι καί λιγότερο πλούσιος.
I REPEAT : YES TO BREXIT, TO GREXIT, TO EVERY EXIT. THIS IS NOT THE EU WE DREAMED OF. BECAUSE THERE WILL ALWAYS BE SOMEONE (POWERFULL) WHO WILL WANT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF HIS POWER AND WILL EVENTUALLY WOULD WANT TO CONQUER THE REST OF EUROPEAN COUNTRIES. THIS IS HAS BEEN PROVEN TO BE ALWAYS THE CASE IN EUROPEAN AND HUMAN HISTORY. GERMANY DID THAT, OTHERS WILL DO THE SAME. AND THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN AGAIN.-
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After yesterday I would tend to agree with you.
How about by Feb 1st (which would allow a 3 month delay)?
On a similar note will Boris be Prime minister on Feb 1st?
