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Brexit 101
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Brexit 101

  #681 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Hasn't much of the damage already happened and also irreversible at this point?

My not-very-well-informed opinion is no : it will get FAR worse if Brexit actually happens. But if Brexit does not happen (remembering that it will likely take at least 9 months for another Brexit Referendum), much of the damage to date will even out within 2 or 3 years. The UK economy is fundamentally stronger than most in the EU, partly because it is not within the EuroZone (another can of worms).

I've said it before & I'll say it again : what an unbelievable, shameful mess !

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  #682 (permalink)
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With a new referendum ruled out, it seems as though at this point there are only two possibilities left:

1. Theresa May's Brexit plan is passed. EU grants short extension for implementation.
2. UK crashes out of EU with no deal Brexit.

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  #683 (permalink)
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I thought they also passed a bill ruling out #2 as well only leaves leaving with a deal. Not sure what happens though if the EU refuses an extension. What a mess!

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  #684 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
I thought they also passed a bill ruling out #2 as well only leaves leaving with a deal. Not sure what happens though if the EU refuses an extension. What a mess!

They did but it is not legally binding, which is to say, if they have no deal by March 29 and no extension, they still crash out -- ie -- No Deal Brexit.

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  #685 (permalink)
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not only Brexit

Brexit is carefully watched by countries like Finnland, Sweden and Denmark because they are the next candidates .
It sounds maybe sarcastic but a drama is helpful otherwise the EU is becoming a Roman Empire ! And welcome the new British Empire with Australia and New Zealand. ( don't forget to go Long on AUD )

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srgtroy View Post
They did but it is not legally binding, which is to say, if they have no deal by March 29 and no extension, they still crash out -- ie -- No Deal Brexit.

Brexit will be bad for Europe, not as bad as for UK citizens of course, but if an extension is asked with a no Brexit possibility later Europe will find a way to allow it.
The no-deal looks more and more plausible: as a company manager I received multiple messages from French government institutions showing that they are ready (at least they write it) for an hard Brexit. I assume other countries are doing the same thing.

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  #687 (permalink)
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carofa View Post
Brexit is carefully watched by countries like Finnland, Sweden and Denmark because they are the next candidates .
It sounds maybe sarcastic but a drama is helpful otherwise the EU is becoming a Roman Empire ! And welcome the new British Empire with Australia and New Zealand. ( don't forget to go Long on AUD )

Australia and New Zealand are impacted far more by what happens in the Pacific with regard to the US-Sino balance of power then their relations to the UK. I don't think there is any going back in time on that one. I actually think the threat to the UK is further disintegration. Scotland will see how Brexit goes and if its a total disaster they will leave the UK.

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  #688 (permalink)
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sam028 View Post
Brexit will be bad for Europe, not as bad as for UK citizens of course, but if an extension is asked with a no Brexit possibility later Europe will find a way to allow it.
The no-deal looks more and more plausible: as a company manager I received multiple messages from French government institutions showing that they are ready (at least they write it) for an hard Brexit. I assume other countries are doing the same thing.

The complicating factor is the European Parliament elections in May 2019. EU needs to know if UK is in or out by then or it will just be a bigger mess.

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  #689 (permalink)
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srgtroy View Post
With a new referendum ruled out, it seems as though at this point there are only two possibilities left:

I don't think anything is ruled out : things are rarely what they seem in the chaos of modern politics.

I feel that behind the scenes, there is a titanic battle going on between those who are trying to prevent Brexit and those who are determined to push it through. This battle is not the one playing out in front of the TV cameras & both sides are extremely smart & powerful.

It is not clear to me on which side Theresa May truly is, bearing in mind that over the last 18 months she rejected various far more palatable options for Brexit than she eventually agreed (she voted Remain). I have doubted her true intentions every since she first said "Brexit means Brexit", which is about as meaningful as saying "Chocolate means chocolate"!

As you know, my bets are now hedged & it's hard to pick a winner because the true powers at hand are hard to clearly identify & assess. My bias remains towards Brexit not taking place - on the surface, it seems to hinge on Rees Mogg / ERG & the DUP, but who is pulling their strings ? Tusk is clearly for cancelling Brexit, but he has a habit of showing his hand too soon. Barnier is a much better poker player...

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I would say your mentioned countries are least candidates. Finland, really?


carofa View Post
Brexit is carefully watched by countries like Finnland, Sweden and Denmark because they are the next candidates .
It sounds maybe sarcastic but a drama is helpful otherwise the EU is becoming a Roman Empire ! And welcome the new British Empire with Australia and New Zealand. ( don't forget to go Long on AUD )


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