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Brexit negotiators are seeking to fast track a security and defence deal to allow the UK and EU to skip a transition and move straight to a new relationship after exit day, according to officials preparing talks.
But divisions have emerged within the EU, with France and Cyprus wary of a precedent that gives a measure of influence to a non-EU country over the bloc’s policy towards the rest of the world.
“If we do something special for the Brits then we have others knocking at the door,” said one senior EU diplomat who expected a more arms-length partnership after Brexit.
Foreign policy and defence have risen up the Brexit talks’ agenda because there will be no “standstill” transition to fall back on after exit day in March 2019. The UK — one of the continent’s biggest military powers — would be outside the EU institutions that co-ordinate policy, which they largely do by unanimity.
This is forcing the EU side to think creatively about models of association and is causing tension among the other 27 EU states as they try to reconcile their longstanding differences over involving allies in the bloc’s policymaking or military missions.
A statement by EU ministers, issued alongside negotiating directives on transition on Monday, called for “specific arrangements” on defence and foreign policy after Britain leaves in 2019 “taking account of the future relationship”.
Britain is seeking a deal “deeper than any current third-country partnership” and “unprecedented” in breadth of co-operation. In a position paper last year, it offered to continue taking part in EU military missions, including through UK command facilities — a suggestion that has split the EU27.
Supporters of a close UK relationship after Brexit — including Poland, Nordic and Baltic states — have been opposed by those worried about compromising the EU’s decision-making independence.
Parts of the UK that backed a Leave vote would face the heaviest hit as a result of Brexit, according to estimates by government officials.
The forecasts, seen by MPs, model the 15-year impact of the UK staying in the single market, doing a trade deal with the EU or leaving without a deal.
They suggest that in England, the North East and West Midlands would see the biggest slowdown in growth.
The government said the document did not represent its policy.
It added that the forecasts did not "consider the outcome we are seeking in the negotiations".
And one Eurosceptic Tory MP said the figures were "complete nonsense".
Following a leak of some of the information to Buzzfeed last week, and political pressure to release it, ministers agreed to allow MPs to see the reports on a confidential basis in the House of Commons library.
In each scenario, growth would be lower, by 2%, 5% and 8% respectively, than currently forecast over a 15-year period.
In north-east England growth would be 3% lower if the UK stayed in the single market, 11% under a trade deal and 16% with no trade deal compared with staying in the EU.
The research suggests London - which backed Remain - would fare the best, with reductions of 1%, 2% and 2.5% in each of the three scenarios.
Scotland's estimated hit would be 2.5%, 6% and 9%. Wales would see reductions of 1.5%, 5.5% and 9.5%.
Brexit-backing Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg has accused Treasury officials of "fiddling the figures" to make all options but staying in the EU look bad.
Whitehall trade union reacted angrily to this suggestion and government ministers have dismissed his allegation.
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I'm under the impression it would swing to a stay vote. Question is if that happened would it undo what has already begun. Would companies leave stuff in London or still go ahead with their plans now that they are in motion.
LONDON/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (GS.N) has put more than a dozen UK-based banking, sales and trading staff on notice to move to Frankfurt within weeks, two sources with knowledge of the matter said, as it braces for divorce between Britain and the European Union.
After months of patience and private lobbying, the U.S. investment bank has decided it can no longer wait for clarity from lawmakers on how its business might be impacted by Britain’s exit from the trading bloc and is taking the steps to minimise disruption to clients.
It has informed members of its London-based derivatives and debt capital markets teams working on German accounts that their activities will be relocated to its base in Frankfurt and to make the necessary preparations to move to those offices by end-June, the sources told Reuters.
Several members of those teams have already negotiated and signed new German employment contracts, one of the sources added. Goldman declined to comment.
Goldman’s decision to reissue some staff contracts and set a timeline to move teams to the continent marks one of the first tangible signs that banks are starting to execute on Brexit contingency plans after British Prime Minister Theresa May ruled out retaining passporting rights for financial services.
This is a Sky News article, I think it makes for interesting insight into the UK gov't analysis of what possible economic impact various Brexit scenarios may have.
Theresa May’s officials could be lining up to keep the U.K. in the European customs union after Brexit, according to a new analysis that chimes with the views of parts of the British government.
Some of May’s officials think that quitting the customs union in order to win the power to strike free trade agreements with countries such as the U.S. or Australia is not as desirable as passionate Brexit supporters believe.
Such trade deals with third countries can take a long time to negotiate and end up mired in litigation, while measures short of formal FTAs can still deliver significant benefits, one person said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the discussions are private.
Added to this, the growing view in May’s office is that, after a narrow referendum result and a close general election, she has no mandate for an extreme Brexit, according to an official.
Each of the government’s four Brexit scenarios, including a bespoke deal, would leave Britain poorer and cost the taxpayer hundreds of millions of pounds each week, analysis has shown.
The study for the thinktank Global Future by Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics and public policy at King’s College, London, found that a bespoke deal, the government’s preferred option, would have a net negative fiscal impact of about £40bn a year.
Polling commissioned for study by Populus, which is run by David Cameron’s former strategy chief Andrew Cooper, found that voters, even those who backed Brexit, feared that leaving the European Union would come at “too high a price”.
The analysis came as the government braced itself for defeats in parliament on Wednesday, including over its plans to take the UK out of the customs union, as the EU withdrawal bill returns to the House of Lords.
