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Brexit 101

  #601 (permalink)
 
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xplorer View Post
Most journalists seem to be exasperated with how Brexit is unraveling...[/URL]

Not only journalists...

... but look on the bright side, when the City of London has moved to Frankfurt, all the newly unemployed can put on their overalls and work in the fields growing the produce that we will no longer import from France and the rest of the EU.

Here's my latest, wild scenario :

Tory Govt, having been in the strongest position vis a vis Labour for decades, finally implodes due to staggering, almost inconceivable idiocy in almost every area.

Comrade Corbyn sweeps to power, saying he'll sort Brexit out.

Comrade C realises that this is not possible and cancels Brexit "for the sake of the people, who were deceived by the Tories into voting for it in the first place" (not entirely untrue); the pound soars and all looks good for the British economy.

The British economy is then totally, completely and utterly destroyed by even more outlandish political incompetence under the revisionist policies of the Corbynistas, with Diane Abbot as Chancellor.

A reminder of Diane being "good with numbers" :

Diane Abbott struggles when quizzed on police policy - BBC News

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  #602 (permalink)
 
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If Brexit is bad for British business, global dealmakers aren’t paying attention. The U.K. is still their favorite place in Europe to invest, according to a survey by Ernst & Young LLP.

Business executives from around the world ranked Britain third behind the United States and China as the top investment destination, ahead of Germany and France, the New York-based consultancy said in its Global Capital Confidence Barometer report.

“Doing deals is in the DNA of U.K. companies,” said Steve Krouskos, EY’s global vice chair of transaction advisory services. “The U.K. is home to the most important assets sought by dealmakers -- technology, talent and intellectual property -- so it always has been and always will be a major player.”

While the U.K. briefly fell to fifth place in the same survey a year ago in the initial panic that followed the referendum to split from the European Union, it snapped back in part because the pound’s Brexit-induced slide made targets cheaper. The survey also suggests investors are taking tense Brexit negotiations and slowing economic growth in stride.

Apart from Brits, American and Australian buyers have been the most active on Britain’s M&A playing field, according to EY. Over the summer, Vantiv Inc. agreed to spend 8 billion pounds ($10 billion) buying e-commerce payments company Worldpay Group Plc and McCormick & Co. took over Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc’s food assets for $4.2 billion.

M&A activity worldwide will only get busier in the coming year, according to the consultancy, which surveyed almost 3,000 executives across 43 countries. Fifty-six percent of respondents said they are planning a deal within the next 12 months and more than half expect the greatest competition in M&As will come from private-equity firms.

“The resurgence of private equity could be the biggest M&A story over the next 12 months, and see corporates challenged much more aggressively for assets than during the past five years," Krouskos said. “Brexit creates some uncertainty, but fulfilling strategic growth needs rather than nationalism will drive deal sentiment.”


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Paris and Amsterdam have been chosen as the new homes for two prized EU agencies, after ministers in Brussels resorted to picking names from a hat to decide where the two organisations and their combined 1,000 staff should move after Brexit.

Three rounds of voting in Brussels failed to produce a clear winner in the contests to relocate the European Banking Authority and the far larger European Medicines Agency, which are both currently based in London.

Amsterdam tied with Milan in the final-round vote for the EMA, which 16 countries had sought to win, while Paris pipped Dublin after lots were drawn in the race for the EBA.

“You could not make it up if you tried,” said one EU diplomat.

The EBA decision is a big victory for French President Emmanuel Macron, who is looking to push Paris as the EU’s premier financial centre after Brexit. The result means the French capital will now play host to both of the EU authorities responsible for setting banking standards, as well as the European Securities and Markets Authority, or Esma — an agency responsible for regulating financial trading.

“Paris is a surprise. We always had the impression that Frankfurt or Vienna were the most likely to win,” one senior insider said.

Vienna had offered the most generous financial package to secure the EBA, including a 25-year rent-free deal. Vienna had also come top in an internal staff survey, EBA insiders said, though Paris ranked second, suggesting relief among the workforce.

Paris put one of the least generous packages on the table, offering a €1.5m one-off payment into the EBA coffers. The city has pre-selected an office in La Defense and another in central Paris as possible locations.

The EBA has yet to be told of a definitive move date but it is working on the basis that staff transfers will begin by the March 2019 Brexit date with the rest completed by the summer.


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LONDON (Reuters) - Banks on mainland Europe have cut their exposures to Britain since the Brexit vote last year and are concerned about the legality of cross-border deals once the UK leaves, the European Union’s banking watchdog said on Friday.

The European Banking Authority (EBA) said banks in the EU’s 27 member countries have cut exposures in terms of assets from just over 1.9 trillion euros (£1.7 trillion) in June 2016 when the referendum took place, to just under 1.6 trillion euros by June 2017.

Liabilities fell from just under 1.7 trillion euros to just over 1.3 trillion euros over the same period.

The drop mainly reflects a sharp pullback in derivative deals, which could become a worry for London which competes with New York in this global sector.

EBA said in a regular risk assessment report that banks are worried about a “cliff-edge” if Britain, the bloc’s most important financial market, leaves the EU without an agreement on trading terms.

“The Brexit negotiations continue to be a source of political risk for the EU financial market as a cliff-edge scenario could lead to substantial disturbances for the European banking sector,” EBA said.


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Sufficient progress has been made in Brexit talks, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has said, paving the way for talks on the future UK-EU relationship.

Theresa May arrived in Brussels on Friday morning following overnight talks on the issue of the Irish border.

The PM said there would be no hard border and the Good Friday Agreement would be upheld.

EU citizens in the UK "will be able to go on living as before".

The DUP said there was still "more work to be done" and how it votes on the final deal "will depend on its contents".

Speaking at an early morning press conference in Brussels, Mr Juncker said: "Today's result is of course a compromise."

Negotiations had been "difficult for both the UK and the EU", he added.

Prime Minister Theresa May said getting to this point had "required give and take from both sides".

The leader of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party, Arlene Foster, said on Friday she was "pleased" to see changes which mean there is "no red line down the Irish Sea".

Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said the latest deal was a "very good outcome for everyone on the island of Ireland".

The joint report states: "the UK will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement."


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https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-13/bank-england-warns-economic-collapse-if-uk-keeps-borrowing-money

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The video in the last post is a year old : was that intentional ?

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jtrade View Post
The video in the last post is a year old : was that intentional ?

yes, always good to see things retrospectively
i think nobody had guessed things would work out as they are unfolding

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Leaving the European Union without a deal in 2019 could cost Britain almost half a million jobs, a report found as London’s key finance industry vacancies also plummeted the most in three years.

Failure to stitch up a deal also means Britain could see around 50 billion pounds ($68 billion) in reduced investment by 2030, according to the report commissioned from Cambridge Econometrics by London Mayor Sadiq Khan. The forecast modeled five different Brexit scenarios, from the hardest to the softest form of Brexit, and broke down the economic impact on nine industries, from construction to finance.

The report was released hours after recruitment firm Morgan McKinley published a survey showing job vacancies in London’s finance industry fell 52 percent in December, the most in three years. There was also a 37 percent decline in job openings year-on-year, underscoring the looming “Brexodus” from the City, the company said.

“In December, the City is abuzz with holiday parties, not hiring, so a drop is to be expected,” Operations Director Hakan Enver said in the report, published Thursday. “But for it to be such a seismic drop is alarming.”

In the worst-case scenario in the Cambridge study, Prime Minister Theresa May would fail to secure a two-year transition to ease the passage for businesses, a situation that in London alone may create 87,000 fewer jobs and usher in 10 years of lower growth, Khan’s office said. Negotiations with the EU will resume in March, with the status of banks the new battleground of trade discussions.

May said she had not read the report, adding: “I am confident that we will be able to achieve a good deal, and I’m very clear that that is what we are working for.”

Every Brexit outcome analyzed would damage the U.K. economy, but the more distance Britain puts between its current and future trading arrangements with the EU, the worse things got.



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xplorer View Post
Every Brexit outcome analyzed would damage the U.K. economy, but the more distance Britain puts between its current and future trading arrangements with the EU, the worse things got.

Relax, x, it's not going to happen... Brexit, that is (dark and powerful forces are on the move against it....)

Anyone else out there agree ("You know you want to") ?

Happy New Year, y'all

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