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Brexit 101

  #571 (permalink)
 
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Do excuse the minor edits, but that is just a wonderful phrase to use in any context, irrespective of the current state of the in-out-shake-it-all-about shenanigans.

It reminds me of the sweeping rhetorical power of swapping all 'buts' with 'ands'.

You are excused

Having watched "Dunkirk" yesterday, what we need is more Churchillian rhetoric, especially of the "Never, ever, give up ... " kind !

All the more relevant on a trading forum...

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jtrade View Post
Having watched "Dunkirk" yesterday, what we need is more Churchillian rhetoric, especially of the "Never, ever, give up ... " kind !

England's desire to wind back time and be great again - probably one of the biggest reasons behind Brexit.
If only it was that simple.

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  #573 (permalink)
 
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If only it was that simple.

As The Donald is doubtless also finding out...

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Once Aliceland eventually begins the Great Unravelling (2017 or 2047, who knows), then Brexit will be seen for what it was - inevitable and irrelevant. Only at a multi-century peak in human optimism could an institution such as the EU have been born in the first place.

To say nothing of the fact that currently the only recorded case of living capitalism has something to do with the Ferengi. And, as PQ observed, the last 12 presidents will be carbon copies of the last dozen Caesars, not sure how far in we are.

Likewise the fuss and nonsense over climate and pollution; heads back in the sand quickly in case anybody mentions the only real problem - population size, which Gaia will sort out all in good time. Unless Bill, Elon or Jeff have a handle on it.

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NewYorkTimes :- London’s New Subway Symbolized the Future. Then Came Brexit.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/31/world/europe/london-crossrail-uk-brexit.html

it's NOT behind a paywall

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  #576 (permalink)
 
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Once Aliceland eventually begins the Great Unravelling (2017 or 2047, who knows), then Brexit will be seen for what it was - inevitable and irrelevant. Only at a multi-century peak in human optimism could an institution such as the EU have been born in the first place.

To say nothing of the fact that currently the only recorded case of living capitalism has something to do with the Ferengi. And, as PQ observed, the last 12 presidents will be carbon copies of the last dozen Caesars, not sure how far in we are.

Likewise the fuss and nonsense over climate and pollution; heads back in the sand quickly in case anybody mentions the only real problem - population size, which Gaia will sort out all in good time. Unless Bill, Elon or Jeff have a handle on it.

Cheers

Great post (I'm on holiday in The Alps - non-EU version - so had not read until now) !

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  #577 (permalink)
 
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Deutsche Bank backs the City with 25-year commitment for London base

When nobody knows what they don't know (the definition of uncertainty) sometimes you just have to close your eyes and put your hand in the tree. A rare glimmer of positive summer news. Just a continual shame about British Airways, and the Spanish passport counters at the aptly named El Prat airport.

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UK is paying the EU less than half the sum claimed by Brexit campaigners, reveal new figures

Britain is paying the European Union less than half the sum claimed by Brexit campaigners, new official figures have revealed.

The UK’s net contribution has fallen to its lowest level for five years, at just £8.1bn in 2016-17 – or about £156m a week.

The sum is under half the £350m-a-week claimed by Brexiteers during the EU referendum campaign, which they promised to divert to the cash-strapped NHS.

Vote Leave, the official Brexit campaign, was widely criticised for printing a slogan on the side of its battle bus that said: “We send the EU £350m a week.”

Boris Johnson and other key figures were photographed alongside the bus, promising the NHS the extra money – but the pledge was immediately dumped when Theresa May took over in Downing Street.

Furthermore, the £8.1bn sum for the annual bill would fall further if the Treasury figures included payments from Brussels into private-sector organisations in the UK.

The Horizon2020 scientific research programme and funding for education, training, youth and sport through the Erasmus+ scheme together receive about £1.5bn annually.

Tom Brake, the Liberal Democrat Brexit spokesman, said: “The Leave campaign promised £350m extra a week for the NHS.

“Now, not only have the Brexiteers failed to stump up the extra cash, but it turns out our actual contribution to the EU is less than half what they claimed.

“This pales in comparison to the benefits we get and the damage to our economy that would be caused by leaving the single market.”

It is the first time the UK’s payments have been estimated for the period that included the vote to leave the EU on June 23 last year.







Full article on The Independent

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Demand for accounts offered in 14 currencies – dominated by dollars and euros – jump as UK account-holders seek shelter from political fallout of Brexit vote
HSBC isn’t plastering Heathrow with its “world’s local bank” tagline anymore, but a Brexit-battered pound and a political swing to the left have spurred internationally minded customers in the UK to snap up its foreign-currency accounts.

Demand for HSBC Currency Accounts, which lets customers hold cash in foreign currencies in the UK, spiked 23 per cent in June from the previous month, spokesman Ankit Patel says.

Theresa May had been expected to win June’s General Election easily but it resulted in a minority Conservative government after a surprising surge by the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn, who has pledged more state intervention and vowed to tax higher earners more heavily. He has since overtaken Mrs May in opinion polls.

“Having seen the calamitous falls you saw immediately post-Brexit [referendum], people have woken up to the fact that they have currency risk,” says Rob Burgeman, an investment manager at Brewin Dolphin, which advises high-net-worth individuals. He added as the election loomed, people thought, “we could have Prime Minister Corbyn here this time next month.

“It just focused people’s minds on currency risk and political risk: you’re not going to catch us like that again.”
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The Brexit deadline of March 2019 creeps ever closer, and exit talks are under way -- but Britain’s government still doesn’t know what it wants. This failure to set a clear goal, much less devise a strategy for achieving it, isn’t all that surprising, given the political mess caused by Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision to call an early election. It’s nonetheless inexcusable.

May’s sense of urgency, if any, did not preclude a summer vacation. It’s to be hoped she returns to London energized by sober reflection and a sense of impending disaster -- because that’s what a so-called cliff-edge Brexit would be for her country, and each passing week makes it more likely.

The right goal has been clear for months. The U.K. needs a transitional exit deal that will temporarily keep most of its existing rights and obligations as a member of the European Union in place. The terms of a lasting settlement will take far longer to negotiate than the 2019 deadline allows. The alternative to a short-term deal is to crash out of the EU with no agreement at all, and that would be an economic calamity for the U.K.

For weeks, May’s cabinet was divided over the very idea of a transitional arrangement. Lately, it seems, views have converged somewhat. But the government still hasn't decided what form any such deal should take -- including how long it would last, and which aspects of the U.K.-EU relationship would be temporarily kept in place. The commitment to free movement of people is especially contentious.

The whole point of a temporary arrangement is to cut through those disputes, leaving them to be addressed after, not before, March 2019. Everything that matters -- including free movement -- should be allowed to stand. And Britain should not be imposing deadlines for getting to a long-term settlement. The EU might want to speed the process along, but the U.K. should be willing to take as long as necessary.

Granted, this approach will arouse suspicions in the U.K. that it’s a way to overthrow the referendum result and avoid Brexit altogether -- but such fears (unfortunately) are exaggerated. As a non-member of the union with almost all of the obligations and no say in future EU decisions, the U.K.’s position would be politically unsustainable. That’s a feature, not a bug: It tells the skeptics that the transitional deal will be just that -- transitional. And the Article 50 process guarantees that once you quit, you can’t slide back in; you have to apply again from scratch.

Europe’s agreement to this approach cannot be taken for granted. Make no mistake: Even a transitional deal where nothing much changes for now will be hard to negotiate. But there’s no chance of reaching that goal if the U.K. government doesn’t embrace it, say what it means, make the case to voters, and press Europe to go along.

It’s more than a year since Britain voted to leave the EU. The government is still in disarray. The dithering has to stop.


From Bloomberg

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