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My tenner says the EU itself fractures before we get chance to officially leave it in its current form, regardless of Article 50 triggering or otherwise. Think about the timescales that will be involved and the trends now in place on world stages.
A new reformed entity or one of several potential children may then be a more appropriate club, if membership of anything is still deemed desirable at all.
My own opinion is that it is irrelevant to most lives in any case, these trends were going to form regardless. An inclusive organisation such as the EU could only ever have been formed somewhere near a peak in human optimism, with support from the grandest Ponzi scheme in history.
This could have legs for a number of reasons. Its now twice in the past sixteen years that California has been part of a majority that has been denied the winner in the Presidential election. It has also been part of the majoity popular vote for the House of Representatives which was awarded to the minority in the recent past. People are getting sick of what appears to be a patently unfair and undemocratic system. Additionally, Californians are tired of waiting around for people in far away 'battleground' states with whom they have little contact to determine their destiny. More and more, by the time the polls close in cali, it feels like votes here don't even count anymore. I think Californians are starting to feel like they need to take control of their own destiny.
Obviously, a lot of this will depend on how the Trump presidency develops but, think of this akin to a Scottish independence vote.
Votes count little in our current Western democracies compared to the dominating effects of globalisation and technology, and the coming wave of automation will further compound that. Politics will eventually be seen as a historical aberration which appeared to give ordinary people some control, but in reality was always just a smokescreen to bury all protest.
Democracy was a such a quaint notion really, then again buying votes with false promises has always been a winner.
This is a possible outcome, IMO. Opinion polls in so many countries speak of increasing popular desire for countries to leave. The democratic deficit, and constantly attempted ever-increasing fiscal and political union could easily tear the thing apart. (My suspicion is that that's going to take longer. The UK is perhaps the first of many bricks taking themselves out of the wall.)
As long as there are people, there will always be politics. That said, I agree with you in that both internal and global dynamics outside of anyone's control often shape the agenda. Mostly, you just get to pick who you think will react more wisely to the exigent circumstances.
Look at population growth since time began, growth, decline (war, disease, some famine though that was usually the result of more modern nation states) its the same as any long term chart steady linear-ish growth. Then came antibiotics and everything changed. Almost everything we do for peace and human happiness accelerates resource consumption so we have a certain (terminal) problem.
Look population at it since 1946, just going up and since 1994 (Rwandan Genocide, the last major one) steeply up with little war losses.
We have a massive consolidation and nearly exponentially growing billions will magically jump to a new planet in 20 years?.. A mega "selloff" of volume is about to happen if this were a chart. We are in a gigantic peace bubble and the US, Chinese and Russians (and Euros but..) leaders see the high level demographics so are positioning themselves for aggression and a resource fight.
look at this (CNN conservatives, sorry, but get past that) Africa on the world map: What's the real size? - CNN.com and get a grip on the real size of the Earth and its nations, not the distorted map version. Let that sink in to your trader mind.
Cooperation and cool headed elegant thinking (often fairly agressive) is my thing, makes me love living. Fix the problems and patch as needed. We might reach a solution via technology faster if we don't melt down.
edit: As a "Wizard" haha, somewhat over-rated title, I must add some Gandalf/Tolkien:
“Some believe it is only great power that can hold evil in check, but that is not what I have found. It is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay. Small acts of kindness and love. Why Bilbo Baggins? Perhaps because I am afraid, and he gives me courage.”
Fall largely because of plunge in sterling after Brexit vote
Households in the UK have lost 10 per cent of their overall wealth as a direct result of Brexit, a report from Credit Suisse found.
In the space of 12 months, approximately $1.5tn (£1.2tn) has been wiped off the value of household wealth, which includes both property and investments, as sterling dropped against the dollar, the Global Wealth Report 2016 found. Since last year, the UK has lost more in percentage terms than Turkey and Colombia.
Argentina, also hit by adverse currency movements, saw a 27 per cent drop and Ukraine, still mired in a territorial dispute with Russia, fell by 19 per cent.
Yet despite the hit, the UK remains relatively wealthy when compared with other nations. The report revealed that more than half the population holds wealth of over £80,000. More than 2.2m in the country have assets of more than £810,000 — despite this number having dropped by 420,000 over the 12-month period.
Michael O’Sullivan, chief investment officer of the international wealth management division at Credit Suisse, ascribed the majority of the decrease to sterling’s fall against the dollar.
Since the UK voted to leave the EU on June 23, sterling has dropped by almost 20 per cent against the dollar.
However, he warned the precarious nature of the housing market could mean the £1.2tn figure could be set to rise. “[The number] is slightly flattered by the fact that the bond market rallied and equities were just off a little bit – and it doesn’t yet capture the property market.
“It could be potentially larger in dollar terms. Looking to the future, you could say the gilt market is back to where it was pre-Brexit and that the property market is starting to come off.
“If the economy doesn’t recover, wealth could fall further,” he added.
It may be a naive assumption but shouldn't the above article stress that the value being wiped out applies only if one buys a home in a currency other than GBP?
In other words, given the house value in the UK seems to keep going up, what difference does the article above make if I'm in UK and I want to buy a house?
Perhaps I'm not taking something else into consideration?
