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Brexit 101
Started:February 27th, 2016 (10:02 AM) by xplorer Views / Replies:14,905 / 470
Last Reply:December 3rd, 2016 (05:24 PM) Attachments:44

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Brexit 101

Old September 6th, 2016, 01:08 AM   #391 (permalink)
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Good info,

Im long on the pound, I think it will make a pretty much full recovery

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Old September 7th, 2016, 06:06 AM   #392 (permalink)
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Two banks cancel Brexit recession forecasts

Two leading City institutions have cancelled predictions of an EU referendum recession and revised their economic forecasts higher in response to better than expected economic surveys.

Economists from Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley lifted growth predictions for 2016 and 2017, removing the expectation of a recession, but they said the Brexit vote would still slow growth.

The upward revisions followed good August results in the three main purchasing manager surveys — for the services, manufacturing and construction sectors. Brexit-supporting MPs said the results demonstrate the economy would remain robust following the vote.

Credit Suisse increased its forecast for 2016 growth from 1 per cent to 1.9 per cent and its 2017 forecast from a contraction of 1 per cent to growth of 0.5 per cent. Its economists had been the second most pessimistic among those surveyed by the Treasury in August.

Sonali Punhani, an economist at Credit Suisse, said that recent data had demonstrated that the shock of Brexit was “materially less than we expected in late June”.

Full article on the Financial Times

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Old September 8th, 2016, 09:39 AM   #393 (permalink)
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Britain is falling into denial about Brexit


Interesting and perhaps sobering piece on the Financial Times

Leave supporters view an EU deal as an event. In truth, it will be a long, tortuous process

What was all the fuss about? The sun is still shining, the economy is growing and Scotland has not seceded. It is time for pro-European doomsters to admit it: Brexit was good for Britain. Now the world awaits its return as a truly “sovereign” nation. All that remains is for Theresa May’s government to step up the pace of negotiations in order to sever ties with Brussels sooner rather than later.

So says the prevailing mood nearly three months after the popular vote to take Britain out of the EU. One could quibble with the detail. The latest rises in some economic indicators reflect a reversal of earlier post-Brexit falls rather than a sign of a coming boom. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence that business is holding back on investment. The public finances are set to worsen. As for the fall of sterling, well, yes, it has made exports cheaper, but at the expense of lowering living standards. The nation once jeered when a former Labour prime minister, Harold Wilson, claimed devaluation did not hit the pound in voters’ pockets.

No matter. Hubristic denial is the order of the day. In any event, an argument about the immediate impact of the vote misses the point. The Brexiters now trumpeting a bright independent future see departure from the EU as an event. In truth it will be a long, tortuous process — a slow burn, if you like, with costs, economic and political, that will reach well into coming decades. To make such an obvious point is not to talk Britain down: the fact that things seem fine now says next to nothing about the consequences along the road.

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Old September 12th, 2016, 07:02 AM   #394 (permalink)
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UK growth forecast cut by BCC after Brexit

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has slashed its growth forecast for the UK in the light of the Brexit vote.

It now expects the UK to grow 1.8% this year, down from its March estimate of 2.2%, and by 1% in 2017 compared with its original forecast of 2.3%.

Uncertainty surrounding the UK's negotiations over its EU exit would "dampen growth prospects", it said, while consumer spending would weaken.

It said the UK "would skirt with", but avoid, a recession.

However, a separate report on business conditions from accountancy and services group BDO said optimism was improving, after falling to a three-year low last month.

'Sharp slowdown'

The forecast from the BCC is the first it has made since the EU referendum, and it warned that, while it did not expect a recession, companies were still digesting the results of June's EU referendum.

In total, the business group said its downgrades implied the UK economy would be £43.8bn smaller by the end of 2018 then it had expected before the EU vote.

But it said the slide in sterling since the vote should improve the UK's net trade position.



Full article on BBC News

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Old September 14th, 2016, 08:50 AM   #395 (permalink)
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FT reports 'UK labour market unruffled by Brexit vote'

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FT/Reuters today reported

Britain’s vote to leave the EU in June has left the labour market unruffled so far, according to official data that show the unemployment rate remains at an 11-year low.

Both the unemployment and the employment rate held steady in the three months to the end of July at 4.9 and 74.5 per cent respectively. The unemployment rate in the month of July — the first month after the Brexit vote — was 4.7 per cent, although the monthly figures are volatile.

The data add to the sense the Brexit vote has done less immediate damage to the economy than some had predicted, although the Bank of England believes growth has halved since the referendum.

“The main message from this report … is that it is business as usual after the referendum: firms have not stopped hiring,” said Alan Clarke, an economist at Scotiabank. “Clearly there are risks that this is the calm before the storm. But for now there don’t seem to be any storm clouds on the horizon.”

However, other economists were more pessimistic, predicting a “slow burn effect” that would hurt the labour market over the longer-term.

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Old September 14th, 2016, 09:01 AM   #396 (permalink)
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Am I missing something?

How did we go from


Quoting 
Both the unemployment and the employment rate held steady in the three months to the end of July at 4.9 and 74.5 per cent respectively. The unemployment rate in the month of July — the first month after the Brexit vote — was 4.7 per cent

to this guy saying


Quoting 
“The main message from this report … is that it is business as usual after the referendum: firms have not stopped hiring,” said Alan Clarke, an economist at Scotiabank.

The figures above to me suggest that noone has been let go from their job yet, but that's all. Am I reading it wrong?

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Old September 14th, 2016, 09:25 PM   #397 (permalink)
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xplorer View Post
Am I missing something?

How did we go from



to this guy saying



The figures above to me suggest that noone has been let go from their job yet, but that's all. Am I reading it wrong?

It probably depends on what their definition actually is of "employment rate" and "unemployment rate".

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Old September 15th, 2016, 05:47 AM   #398 (permalink)
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It probably depends on what their definition actually is of "employment rate" and "unemployment rate".

Employment rate
In United Kingdom, the employment rate measures the number of people who have a job as a percentage of the working age population.

Unemployment rate
In the United Kingdom, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force.


From TRADING ECONOMICS | 300.000 INDICATORS FROM 196 COUNTRIES

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Old September 16th, 2016, 08:42 AM   #399 (permalink)
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Unemployment rate
In the United Kingdom, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force.


I think that "actively looking for a job", in that definition, is probably itself defined as people receiving the "job-seekers' allowance", in which case the actuality is rather different: there are many in that group who are actually far from "actively looking for a job".

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Old September 19th, 2016, 11:17 AM   #400 (permalink)
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'Hard Brexit' would have only modest impact on City, says Moody's


The exodus of banks from the City in the event of a “hard Brexit” would be modest and manageable, one of the world’s three biggest rating agencies has predicted.

A report by Moody’s said there would be a loss of business if the referendum result leads to Britain leaving the single market as well as the EU, but the impact would be less serious than some experts have suggested.

Since the vote, there have been concerns that a departure from the single market will result in the loss of passporting rights – the array of permissions granted to London-based banks and other financial companies, which allow them to operate across the EU and the wider European Economic Area (EEA).

Jens Weidmann, the president of the Bundesbank, said in a Guardian interview that without passporting rights London’s position as a financial centre would be jeopardised.

But Moody’s said the direct impact on the banks and financial services companies for which it provided ratings was “likely to be modest”.

It added: “The greater impact would be felt through higher costs and diversion of management attention, as the companies concerned restructure, reducing profitability for a time. This is credit negative but manageable. And other critical factors such as capital and liquidity, which are largely determined by global standards, are unlikely to face material changes due to Brexit per se.”

Full article on The Guardian

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