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Brexit 101

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The Bank of England is preparing to unleash another round of monetary stimulus as it battles to contain the economic fallout of The UK’s decision to leave EU.

In a stark warning to politicians, governor Mark Carney said a downturn was on its way and Britain was already suffering from “economic post-traumatic stress disorder”.

He said the central bank would take “whatever action is needed to support growth”, which probably included “some monetary policy easing” in the next few months, in an attempt to reassure the markets and the general public.

Full article on Financial Times

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S&P said the cut from AA+ to AA came after reassessment "of cohesion within the EU, which we now consider to be a neutral rather than positive".

The UK's Brexit vote had triggered "greater uncertainty" over long term economic and financial planning.

On Monday, S&P cut the UK's top AAA credit rating, saying Brexit could hit the economy and financial sector.

S&P said the change to its EU rating was because the previous assessment was based on all 28 states remaining in the bloc.

On BBC News

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I'm not a UK citizen, so it really doesn't matter what I think about the vote.

However, I think like most elections, the majority voted with less than the full facts and understanding of what they were doing.

The EU & the EURO seem to be doomed in it's present incarnation. The best possible outcome of this whole situation is that it goes back to a cooperative trading bloc, without the bureaucracy of the non-trade related EU edicts and over reach.

Expecting all the nations to get along under one set of rules when the cultures are in many cases are completely at odds with each other is crazy.

The Greeks are going to default soon. Anyone surprised about that probably outcome?

The weak links in the EU are always going to be on the short end. They need to scrap the EURO so they can devalue their currencies and get back to some semblance of normal for their nations.

A trade block would help them all while they rebuild and get their national houses in order. Once that is done, maybe they can work on integration from a position of strength for all of them.

Hopefully cooler heads prevail. The Germans and French want to punish the UK so bad, but that will only screw themselves.


Leave you with a funny sign a friend of mine saw in London this week.


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Wanted to do this earlier but was on vacation, but am now back.


xplorer View Post
Some more infographics



CobblersAwls View Post
Something I found surprising and actually quite saddening was statistics that were released showing voter turnout % for different age-groups. A lot of blame has been placed on 'racist old people' and 'the old ruining the lives of the young' yet it seems that it was our own age group that let ourselves down. Perhaps ignorance or just taking the right to vote for granted, the young who are now upset will learn a very important lesson in utilising your democratic right to vote.


So there was a 98% correlation between % Turnout and % Leave.
Conclusion, Brexit happened because the people who wanted out, bothered to vote and the under 35's didn't!
Of course this assumes the 'infographics' are correct.


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As traders, let us not forget that it was the British who invented free trade. They will do just fine cutting trade deals with individual countries without being dictated to by an overhead bureaucracy that has non-trade related political agendas.

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As traders, let us not forget that it was the British who invented free trade. They will do just fine cutting trade deals with individual countries without being dictated to by an overhead bureaucracy that has non-trade related political agendas.

Sure but, I think more than 50% of their exports are with the EU, and they won´t get access to that market for free.

And of course there are problems with the overhead bureaucray of the EU. But replacing the EU treaties with myriads of bilateral treaties won´t increase the wealth of nations on a global scale [ due to currency wars, beggar thy neighbour policies, frictions etc...)

Finally and most importantly imho, let us not forget where all this nationalism led to here in Europe.....

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SMCJB View Post
Wanted to do this earlier but was on vacation, but am now back.

So there was a 98% correlation between % Turnout and % Leave.
Conclusion, Brexit happened because the people who wanted out, bothered to vote and the under 35's didn't!
Of course this assumes the 'infographics' are correct.


Thanks for the insightful graph SMCJB - As you say, this assumes the underlying data is correct and of course that source data is based on sample data themselves.

Another thing I wonder: 36% of 18-24 means that, out of the population of eligible voters in the age group 18-24 only 36% voted. But aren't we missing something, i.e. how big that population is?

I'm going to an extreme hypothetical to illustrate my point: let's say we only had 500,000 people eligible to vote between 18-24, versus 5,000,000 aged 65+.

If that were true, that would have an impact on the results, wouldn't it?

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If that were true, that would have an impact on the results, wouldn't it?

Agreed.

This implies that the age groups are pretty even though...


source: IndexMundi - Country Facts

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SMCJB View Post
Agreed.

This implies that the age groups are pretty even though...


source: IndexMundi - Country Facts

Thanks - In hindsight I could have googled that myself, couldn't I - Doh

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Here's a couple of tweets that I came across today and made me think.






This may apply to the Brexit saga but I thought it may be worthwhile to ponder for democratic issues in general.

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WSJ:- Brexit Pushes Pension Deficit Close to £1 Trillion
"the collective pension deficit in the country has risen by £110 billion since Thursday’s referendum."

Brexit pushes UK's pension deficit close to £1 trillion

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Some great data, discussions and analysis in here. I also agree with some of the suggestions that the EU would do better serving as a trading bloc with easy movement across borders and to scrap the EUR and the bureaucracy.

I have been thinking a lot about the current situation and actually thought of a way that the UK could create a large advantage out of this scenario - albeit using pretty dirty tactics - but nothing politicians aren't dirty enough to do anyway. If I were in charge, I'd be out there trying to secure trade agreements and deals with the US/Canada/New Zealand/Australia - with whom we share similar principles, values and a long history of co-operation.

I would also really start putting the works on China and India in particular. I'd look at investing in infrastructure projects in India and also try and offer our consultation for key areas we are strong in such as engineering, social projects or financial markets. I would put aside funding to help push London dealers to expand their RMB dealing operations and look to get London cemented as a key INR dealer too.

Meanwhile, we can go about business as usual, ignoring the Brexit idea and just delaying it as long as possible. It is up to us to trigger it and we can use the threat of triggering article 50 to essentially hold the EU to ransom. If we don't manage to make any trade agreements, we can just call Brexit off. If we do, we can then take our leveraged position to the EU and re-negotiate, preferably at a time when instability is high in the region.

I know this sounds like pretty dirty scheming and is a little harsh on other EU members, but right now this in my mind is the only possible way to save face and actually achieve anything, whilst opening up the possibility of making reforms across the EU not just for the UK but for all members, particularly the PIIGS who are struggling under the weight of debt.

The only other option is to scrap the Brexit vote in the courts and go back to business as usual. We would keep all our current benefits (rebates, passport etc) but would lose credibility. There would also likely be some sort of flare-up over the accusation of a breakdown of democracy.

Just a thought anyway...

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CobblersAwls View Post
I have been thinking a lot about the current situation and actually thought of a way that the UK could create a large advantage out of this scenario - albeit using pretty dirty tactics - but nothing politicians aren't dirty enough to do anyway. If I were in charge, I'd be out there trying to secure trade agreements and deals with the US/Canada/New Zealand/Australia - with whom we share similar principles, values and a long history of co-operation.

I would also really start putting the works on China and India in particular. I'd look at investing in infrastructure projects in India and also try and offer our consultation for key areas we are strong in such as engineering, social projects or financial markets. I would put aside funding to help push London dealers to expand their RMB dealing operations and look to get London cemented as a key INR dealer too.

Meanwhile, we can go about business as usual, ignoring the Brexit idea and just delaying it as long as possible. It is up to us to trigger it and we can use the threat of triggering article 50 to essentially hold the EU to ransom. If we don't manage to make any trade agreements, we can just call Brexit off. If we do, we can then take our leveraged position to the EU and re-negotiate, preferably at a time when instability is high in the region.

I may be wrong but my understanding is, until you're out, you're in.

In other words, you can't go and do trade agreements with other nations as long as you're part of the EU. Which means, even if you trigger article 50, nothing can change until you're actually out.

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I lived in London for 10 years, and still have a chunk of change over there. I wanted them to stay in purely for selfish reasons. But long term I think leaving is the right decision.

Most things today are so short term orientated. eg companies doing things which will influence this years bonus for the CEO/mgmt, and not longer term strategic decisions. To go forward you often have to take some steps back. There will be a pretty decent period of pain - which I think many people only just now realize will happen - hence the sudden regret that seems to be floating around.

The old people had the majority. They are protected by pensions so unlikely to feel any real pain - and didn't have to factor that into their decisions. Any current shortfall is unlikely to affect them. I think they used their experience wisely. My 4 year old says he knows everything and is always right - I wonder at which age group that actually becomes true?

@CobblersAwls made some great points - England need to think differently. Their context has now changed, so trying to do the same things but just out of the EU isn't smart. The Eu wants free movement, and the english people don't. Any deals including free movement would likely swiftly end the term of the political party that made the agreement. The EU is not the only country out there so England need to think globally. And the EU will be harsh on the england, they want to make it as difficult as possible for them, to create a disincentive for other countries to leave. The EU will be the hardest nut to crack in terms of a trade deal.

While the politicians sort themselves, and a plan out, I don't see Article 50 being triggered anytime soon. And as CobblersAwls points out it - they have more options than just the predictable.

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I may be wrong but my understanding is, until you're out, you're in.

In other words, you can't go and do trade agreements with other nations as long as you're part of the EU. Which means, even if you trigger article 50, nothing can change until you're actually out.

But you can do the ground work - and agree deals in principal. If it's proving more difficult than they hope they have the option of putting their tail between their legs and going cap in hand to the EU.

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While the politicians sort themselves, and a plan out, I don't see Article 50 being triggered anytime soon. And as CobblersAwls points out it - they have more options than just the predictable.

Hopefully there will new less predictable options

Considering so many lies and misrepresentations were told it will only get worse. The UK parties have been able to blame Europe for anything that was convenient "the EU(missus) won't let me do xyz" and the basic nature has not changed.

If this was marriage guidance I'd imagine the question habitual scapegoating needs considering. Especially on the 100th anniversary of the Somme when nobody seems to remember why the EEC was founded.

Of course this could never happen again. Almost certainly?

Over the couple of months of the battle(s) 485,000 British and French casualties and 630,000 German.

A German officer wrote,
Somme. The whole history of the world cannot contain a more ghastly word.
— Friedrich Steinbrecher[55]

Now looking at this chart as a trader.. Am I sure what happens next?

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Coming across this article, I thought it worthwhile to post, as it gives a bit more perspective, in my view, as to why some people may have voted to leave, even though they may have been misled.


My friends and family in Bradford voted for Brexit because they were misled

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xplorer View Post
Coming across this article, I thought it worthwhile to post, as it gives a bit more perspective, in my view, as to why some people may have voted to leave, even though they may have been misled.


My friends and family in Bradford voted for Brexit because they were misled

"It’s worth nothing that in areas like Bradford and Barnsley, people are far more likely to log into Facebook than they are to look for information in trusted news outlets. They don’t seek out explainers in The Economist to find out what level of freedom of movement might be grated by associate membership of the EU."
and
“I found out all my information from actual people on Facebook. I’m not listening to rich politicians like David Cameron who like the EU and have never actually lived in an area where immigration causes problems.”

but
"The working class in Britain have been let down by their government. They’ve been let down, not by the number of immigrants let into the country, but by the lack of information provided on one of the most important votes of their life."

So what is she advocating? A new British law that forces the first post on every bodies Facebook page to be a government informational post?

Unfortunately you can't teach people who don't want to learn.

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SMCJB View Post
"It’s worth nothing that in areas like Bradford and Barnsley, people are far more likely to log into Facebook than they are to look for information in trusted news outlets. They don’t seek out explainers in The Economist to find out what level of freedom of movement might be grated by associate membership of the EU."
and
“I found out all my information from actual people on Facebook. I’m not listening to rich politicians like David Cameron who like the EU and have never actually lived in an area where immigration causes problems.”

but
"The working class in Britain have been let down by their government. They’ve been let down, not by the number of immigrants let into the country, but by the lack of information provided on one of the most important votes of their life."

So what is she advocating? A new British law that forces the first post on every bodies Facebook page to be a government informational post?

Unfortunately you can't teach people who don't want to learn.

I believe what she's trying to say - or what I read into it anyway - is that while it may be true that there is a portion of the community that are not fans of critical thinking (for whatever reason) - this time around it was even harder to extract valuable data in order to make a decision. Why? Because of the gross misrepresentation, from both politicians and media, of the facts.

I think we all agree that in this election both camps distorted the facts way above what they should have, and the most obvious impact is that the distortion gave people the wrong impression.

If some people started saying "Britain has voted to leave the EU, now it's time for any non-British person to pack up and leave" is because the way the immigration issue was debated. Nobody said the sensible thing, i.e. that any EU citizen that has established their roots in the UK for, say, 10+ years is obviously not going to be deported en-masse. Or that the rights of people that historically immigrated into the UK from the various British Colonies under the Commonwealth (e.g. people from India, Pakistan, Trinidad, etc.) had nothing to do with this referendum.

And the reason nobody said that was, it was not convenient to say it during the campaign. But it became obvious the day after the vote when people started clarifying it.

The same goes for trade: when the Leave camp said that the UK could have the best of both worlds by leaving the EU and setting up trade agreements with anyone and everyone, they did not say that the EU might make this hard. Why? It wasn't convenient.

Nor did anyone provide a timetable or even mentioned Article 50 pre-referendum: again it wasn't convenient.


Bottom line, I agree with you: if someone doesn't want to learn or does not spend time in collecting the facts, too bad.

But this time I believe the facts available were

a) distorted/exaggerated/obfuscated by claims made for political purposes
b) too many to weigh in a balanced way and
c) too complex to be easily digested by the average voter

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Case in point. How some media intentionally distort the facts to get that extra clickbait:

Theresa May warns future of EU citizens living in the UK is uncertain


And though Ms May said she wanted to “guarantee the position” for EU citizens currently living in the UK and British citizens living in EU countries, she admitted their future was up for negotiation.

“What's important is there will be a negotiation here as to how we deal with that issue of people who are already here and who have established life here and Brits who have established a life in other countries within the European Union.

“The position at the moment is as it has been, there's no change at the moment, but of course we have to factor that into negotiations.”


Now, it is plainly obvious in my mind that of course the UK and the EU will negotiate some right of stay for both EU citizens staying in the UK and for UK citizens staying in the EU. It's the common-sense approach. Suggesting a bilateral mass-deportation would be unthinkable.

But is the editor of the Independent (in this case) more worried they may alarm unnecessarily the average reader or more worried about getting click-related revenue?

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@xplorer I agree that common sense and sensibility is the right way.
But, take a look at this: 'You're not laughing now, are you?' - BBC News
What do you think?

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mattz View Post
@xplorer I agree that common sense and sensibility is the right way.
But, take a look at this: 'You're not laughing now, are you?' - BBC News
What do you think?

Hi matt

well, what do you want me to think?

I had watched that before. It's when I posted that Farage back in the EU parliament after the Brexit vote was practically oozing smug. But that's Nigel Farage for you.

I consider him as a cheap-shot politician. He will never have the finesse required to be really relevant in representing the UK at a significant level. Sure, his party got more seats at the last EU election and sure, some of the people that signs up to his agenda may have been grown to be Eurosceptic.

But the bottom line is, I believe he, like the BNP represents the minority of people who have a distorted view of the world.

Had he been leading the Leave campaign with no aid from the likes of Boris Johnson or Michael Gove, I'm sure the Leave vote would have lost.

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Had he been leading the Leave campaign with no aid from the likes of Boris Johnson or Michael Gove, I'm sure the Leave vote would have lost.

Absolutely. Johnson and Gove provided respectability for the average voter who was concerned about immigration but without wanting to feel that they were voting for a UKIP campaign.

Really glad that Johnson will not be Prime Minister. Pleased also that Gove's campaign is floundering with the alternative Leave candidate option of Leadsom. With May and Leadsom likely to be the MP's chosen candidates to be put forward to the party membership it will be exciting to have a female Prime Minister again.

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Hi matt

well, what do you want me to think?

I had watched that before. It's when I posted that Farage back in the EU parliament after the Brexit vote was practically oozing smug. But that's Nigel Farage for you.

I consider him as a cheap-shot politician. He will never have the finesse required to be really relevant in representing the UK at a significant level. Sure, his party got more seats at the last EU election and sure, some of the people that signs up to his agenda may have been grown to be Eurosceptic.

But the bottom line is, I believe he, like the BNP represents the minority of people who have a distorted view of the world.

Had he been leading the Leave campaign with no aid from the likes of Boris Johnson or Michael Gove, I'm sure the Leave vote would have lost.

I understand. My concern is that the EU countries via the ECB will impose rules that are purely driven by "vengeance" in lieu of this kind of behaviour. The EU passport allows lots of cooperation both strategic and legal and if this is cooperation stops there could be a serious outflow of capital out of London. Further, many US companies also run their European operations out of London, and they may leave to other countries secure their EU passport and operations (EU passport allows one set of procedures versus single procedures in each country).

This new environment may be an opportunity for trading due to volatility, but economically it is a different story.
To be honest, one directional volatility is hard to capitalize on as well because too many try to catch bottoms.

This reminds me of the Quebec referendum back in 95, where nothing was achieved and the province saw capital outflow in the Billions that went straight to Toronto's Bay Street.

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I understand. My concern is that the EU countries via the ECB will impose rules that are purely driven by "vengeance" in lieu of this kind of behaviour. The EU passport allows lots of cooperation both strategic and legal and if this is cooperation stops there could be a serious outflow of capital out of London. Further, many US companies also run their European operations out of London, and they may leave to other countries secure their EU passport and operations (EU passport allows one set of procedures versus single procedures in each country).

This new environment may be an opportunity for trading due to volatility, but economically it is a different story.
To be honest, one directional volatility is hard to capitalize on as well because too many try to catch bottoms.

This reminds me of the Quebec referendum back in 95, where nothing was achieved and the province saw capital outflow in the Billions that went straight to Toronto's Bay Street.

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I really hope the EU will be able to see past the emotional stage and get a good deal for all the parties, which won't be easy.

We'll see.

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Nigel Farage is stepping down as leader of Ukip, saying he has done his bit for the cause of Britain leaving the EU.

Speaking at a press conference in Westminster, he said it was time to get his life back after successfully campaigning for the UK to vote for Brexit.

“During the the referendum I said I wanted my country back … now I want my life back,” Farage said on Monday.


Article on The Guardian

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This whole thing has become farcical. It beggars belief that there was literally no plan set out from either side, particularly pro-brexiteers, as to what they may do if Britain voted to leave. The cowardice sums up politics and politicians in general, no wonder most people voted against the status-quo.

The issue now is, if everything that the vote to leave stood for turned out as a lie, all the politicians pushing it have stepped down and they have u-turned on key issues (payments given to EU being spent on NHS instead, control of immigration etc) then should the vote still stand?


On another note and relative to what I suggested last week, Osborne at least seems to be coming up with some plans to keep companies attracted to London and the UK https://www.ft.com/content/d5aedda0-412e-11e6-9b66-0712b3873ae1

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I don't know if this is the first alarm bell of many or not, but I thought I'd post it here


Quoting 
Investors in Standard Life’s property funds have been told that they cannot withdraw their money, after the firm acted to stop a rush of withdrawals following the UK’s decision to leave the EU.

The firm halted trading on its Standard Life Investments UK Real Estate Fund and associated funds at midday on Monday, citing “exceptional market circumstances” for the decision. It said the suspension would remain in place until it is “practicable” to lift it, and that it would review the decision at least every 28 days.

Article in The Guardian

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I don't know if this is the first alarm bell of many or not, but I thought I'd post it here



Article in The Guardian

To add to this, Someone I know is selling their home in London and the day after the vote was approached by a buyer offering £300k below the asking price. They laughed at the offer.

Now, this is most likely a chancer who was looking for a panic seller and maybe looking to create fear through such a low offer hoping to come back and get a smaller discount. However we are due a correction in house prices anyway, as could be seen from the lack of demand in the nine elms area prior to the brexit ref, which begun to sell at discounts. Whether this spreads and we see a significant decline, I am doubtful.

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On another note and relative to what I suggested last week, Osborne at least seems to be coming up with some plans to keep companies attracted to London and the UK https://www.ft.com/content/d5aedda0-412e-11e6-9b66-0712b3873ae1

I don't think slashing corporate tax rates was quite what the 'ordinary' Brexit voter expected to get out of leaving.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/03/george-osborne-looks-at-corporation-tax-cut-to-attract-overseas-investors

I wonder who will end up covering the revenue short-fall.....

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This is quite dated now, what with Johnson not running and Farage stepping down.

But it's a follow-up to John Oliver's Brexit bit ahead of the elections, posted earlier in this thread.


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He pretty much says what many figured.

UK Tory rifts caught on camera - BBC News

So... Brexit II anyone? I think the hard of thinking may need a mulligan.

Ok, below seems connected in my head somehow

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I don't know if this is the first alarm bell of many or not, but I thought I'd post it here

Quoting
Investors in Standard Life’s property funds have been told that they cannot withdraw their money, after the firm acted to stop a rush of withdrawals following the UK’s decision to leave the EU.

The firm halted trading on its Standard Life Investments UK Real Estate Fund and associated funds at midday on Monday, citing “exceptional market circumstances” for the decision. It said the suspension would remain in place until it is “practicable” to lift it, and that it would review the decision at least every 28 days.

Article in The Guardian

From WSJ City Brexit Briefing
M&G Investments has become the third company to suspend trading in a real estate fund, following Aviva Investors and Standard Life Investments. M&G said in a statement Tuesday afternoon that investor redemptions in the M&G Portfolio and its feeder fund have risen markedly because of the high levels of uncertainty in the UK commercial property market since the outcome of the European Union referendum. It is rare for fund managers to impose such so-called gates on funds, although it became more of an issue after the financial crisis.

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In a major report it states: "There is evidence that some risks have begun to crystallise. The current outlook for UK financial stability is challenging."

The Bank has eased special capital requirements for banks, potentially freeing up £150bn for lending.

Eight major banks have also agreed with George Osborne to provide more lending to households and businesses.

The chancellor signed a letter with Barclays, HSBC, Santander UK, Virgin Money, Metro Bank, RBS, Nationwide and Lloyds for the banks to make extra capital available in this "challenging time".


Full article on BBC News

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Today's edition has an update on Brexit related matters ......

The Daily Shot; July 6 - Global Macro Currents

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"The pound was trimming overnight losses in London after slumping below $1.28 during Asian trading, a level not seen since 1985.

At its weakest level of the day, sterling was down 1.7 per cent at $1.2796

Top tier government bond yields were at all-time lows, with the 10-year UK gilt below 0.75 per cent, while selling pressure on European equities was once more being led by weakening bank shares. The Euro Stoxx banks index fell to its lowest level since July 2012 as shares in Deutche Bank slid 6 per cent.

Gold rose to $1,375 an ounce, marking a new post-Brexit peak and the precious metals, its highest level since March 2014.

Attention remained firmly on the pound, after its latest slide was driven by a number of large UK asset managers halting retail investors from withdrawing money out of property funds."

Full article on the FT

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"The pound was trimming overnight losses in London after slumping below $1.28 during Asian trading, a level not seen since 1985.

At its weakest level of the day, sterling was down 1.7 per cent at $1.2796

... will NOT stop here ...

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If I had not left the UK >15 years ago and had been able to vote, I would have voted Leave. Economic union YES, political union NO.

However, I do not think the UK is leaving the EU anytime soon.

In few words, a likely scenario :

Theresa May becomes PM, despite being in the Remain camp, albeit very low-profile.

She duly appoints a commission to study how the UK should prepare prior for triggering Article 50. There is of course no intention for this commission to reach a conclusion. Juncker's insistence in Brussels that the UK must immediately trigger Art 50 is completely ignored (as it should be).

Meanwhile, the UK leaves the ECHR (European Convention on Human Rights), participation in which - contrary to most people's belief - is not an obligation for EU members. This largely addresses one of the two pillars of the Leave campaign, "immigration". UK re-enacts its own human rights legislation.

While the "Art 50 commission" drags laboriously on, Madame May starts discussions with EU leaders, suggesting that with their support, she just might be able to keep the UK within the EU (subject to the major changes refused to Cameron last February). Led by Merkel, who desperately wants not to be left alone in bed with the French garlic eaters, favourable terms are agreed. This addresses the second pillar of the Leave campaign "unfair terms/too many rules from Brussels".

A vote to stay is held in the House of Commons and carried by a landslide majority.

The nation breathes a sigh of relief. The pound surges and beer on the Costa del Sol costs much less than during Summer 2016. Happy Ending.... kinda, sorta... everybody forgets about Brexit, even Nicola Sturgeon.

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Five of Top 10 UK Property Funds Now Closed to Trading

Henderson Global Investors and Columbia Threadneedle have become the latest fund managers to stop investors in UK property funds from pulling their money out after Britain voted to leave the European Union. That brings the total to Five of Top 10 UK Property Funds Now Closed to Trading. The other five largest funds investing in UK commercial property are managed by Kames Capital, Aberdeen Asset Management, Legal & General Investment Management, F&C and Royal London Asset Management.

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"...It's been suggested that we've moved to a postfactual society, where evidence and truth no longer matter, and lies have equal status to the clarity of evidence..."


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Global sovereign wealth funds are waiting to pounce on bargains instead of paring stakes in the U.K. following the Brexit vote, a senior industry expert said Friday.

"Sovereign wealth funds are patient capital. They have a long term investment horizon," Michael Maduell, president of the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Friday.

"When everyone is freaking out about the pound sterling going to a 31-year low, wealth funds can come in and tactically purchase assets and tactically place bids on companies."


On CNBC

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Scale and speed of fall reinforces case for BoE rate cut next week

British consumer confidence has dropped sharply in the aftermath of the vote to leave the EU.

Amid the political and market turmoil that has followed the vote, a special edition of the GfK survey has recorded one of the biggest falls in its history, falling by eight points to minus 9 in only a few weeks.

The highest the survey has been was 21, out of a possible 50, in January 1978, and the series is often in negative territory because of the way questions are framed.

Nevertheless, the last time the survey, which has been asking the same questions in the same form since 1974, recorded a bigger fall was in the 1990s.

Joe Staton, head of market dynamics at GfK, said it was a “big drop and a clear sign that people are feeling insecure”.


Full article on FT

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U.K. Consumer Confidence Dives After Brexit Vote - WSJ
Steepest fall since 1994 is ominous sign of broader economic slowdown


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While I keep looking out for articles that offer an alternative to the 'doom and gloom', post-Brexit vote narrative, I came across this insightful piece from someone who used to work for the European Union.

It paints quite a picture...


It was tough, working as a Brit in Brussels when UK interest was waning - the guardian

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WSJ is using an interesting expression, there, when they say "steepest fall". I'm not questioning whether it's true, but according to their own chart, although it's had its steepest fall, it's still higher than it was at any point between the start of 2008 and the start of 2014, and it's clearly wording that chooses to conceal that, isn't it?

(It's one of things slightly similar to "fastest-growing" often being another way of saying "smallest".)

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More doom and gloom press, this time courtesy of a hedge fund guy writing on Barron's

Couple of highlights


Quoting 
The City of London currently is the dominant financial center for euro-denominated markets. An open question that will hurt the U.K. banking sector for an extended period concerns the uncertain future of London’s “passport” for doing business with the 27 other EU member countries. There is a significant threat that business will move from the City to Frankfurt, Paris, or Dublin.

Particular attention is being given to whether euro clearing can remain centered in London. France’s president, François Hollande, is calling for euro clearing to be conducted outside of London. That would have a serious impact on the City as it could lose an estimated 69% of its interest rate derivatives market. Of course, London continues to have the important advantages of the English language and English law.

and


Quoting 
We think a recession in the U.K.’s economy is highly probable. While second-quarter GDP growth is likely to look surprisingly strong at 0.6%, that figure can be attributed mainly to strong growth in April. A significant slowdown looks all but inevitable for the second half as the repercussions of the referendum play out in the economy.

Whether the recession will be relatively moderate and short in duration or severe and lengthy is very difficult to judge given all the uncertainties, most importantly the U.K.’s future relationship in its many dimensions to Europe. There will eventually be light at the end of the Brexit tunnel. Unfortunately, reaching that light could take years. For the time being we are not taking any direct U.K. positions in our International Equity ETF Portfolios.


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The United States has ruled out a separate trade deal with UK if it leaves the European Union, in a major blow to Brexit campaigners.

President Obama’s most senior trade official said that America is “not in the market” for a free trade deal with Britain alone, and warned British firms could face crippling Chinese-style tariffs outside the EU.



Major blow for Brexit campaign as US rules out UK-only trade deal - Telegraph

.

Why re-hash old news. I believe that article was written in October last year (look at the date under the writer's name). So despite that, the voters still went ahead and voted out.

However, if the USA brings in trade barriers against the UK, then it will be reciprocated and there are no winners in a trade war. The same goes for the EU.

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I enjoyed Ian McEwan's take on it, acerbic as ever:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/09/country-political-crisis-tories-prime-minister

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Theresa May will on Wednesday become Britain’s prime minister promising to make a success of Brexit after she completed a dramatic rout of the rival Conservatives who led the campaign to take Britain out of the EU.

Mrs May, the 59-year-old home secretary, was part of the campaign to keep Britain in the EU, but now finds herself picking up the pieces after the last remaining pro-Brexit Tory leadership candidate threw in the towel.


Full article on FT

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Theresa May will on Wednesday become Britain’s prime minister promising to make a success of Brexit after she completed a dramatic rout of the rival Conservatives who led the campaign to take Britain out of the EU.

Mrs May, the 59-year-old home secretary, was part of the campaign to keep Britain in the EU, but now finds herself picking up the pieces after the last remaining pro-Brexit Tory leadership candidate threw in the towel.


Full article on FT

Not a promising start at all sadly, she definitely wouldnt get my vote thats for sure. I think we would be better off having a new vote for a PM. Although considering what we have there's not much choice and few are willing to put their career on the line to make Brexit a success. We need someone with balls who will do what is needed, now we're ending up with a PM who's not only remain but has little to no interest for our benefit what so ever. Her vote history definitely doesnt impress me at all.

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Not a promising start at all sadly, she definitely wouldnt get my vote thats for sure. I think we would be better off having a new vote for a PM. Although considering what we have there's not much choice and few are willing to put their career on the line to make Brexit a success. We need someone with balls who will do what is needed, now we're ending up with a PM who's not only remain but has little to no interest for our benefit what so ever. Her vote history definitely doesnt impress me at all.

May seems to have just voted with the whip? Exactly as any senior member would do, just vote with the party line.

Voting Record — Theresa May MP, Maidenhead (10426) — The Public Whip

Where do you see the "little or no interest in our benefit what so ever"? I'm not challenging your view, just curious to see where your drawing your conclusion from?

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May seems to have just voted with the whip? Exactly as any senior member would do, just vote with the party line.

Voting Record — Theresa May MP, Maidenhead (10426) — The Public Whip

Where do you see the "little or no interest in our benefit what so ever"? I'm not challenging your view, just curious to see where your drawing your conclusion from?

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10426/theresa_may/maidenhead/votes - is another site I got the voting history from

My conclusion is drawn from all her voting history, like trading there is a trend, and this isn't exactly great but then it does depend on your personal view and stand.

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https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10426/theresa_may/maidenhead/votes - is another site I got the voting history from

My conclusion is drawn from all her voting history, like trading there is a trend, and this isn't exactly great but then it does depend on your personal view and stand.

Fair enough, just her vote was seemingly extremely correlated with her party majority view so the Conservative party itself is the problem? Not many would disagree, even the Tories recently Of course you don't get promoted if you don't obey the whip and the senior MPs work with the whip to ensure conformity in the juniors.

From theyworkforyou "Theresa May has never rebelled against their party in the current parliament. Find out more." which just links back to Voting Record — Theresa May MP, Maidenhead (10426) — The Public Whip

Regards,
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Rory View Post
'

Fair enough, just her vote was seemingly extremely correlated with her party majority view so the Conservative party itself is the problem? Not many would disagree, even the Tories recently Of course you don't get promoted if you don't obey the whip and the senior MPs work with the whip to ensure conformity in the juniors.

From theyworkforyou "Theresa May has never rebelled against their party in the current parliament. Find out more." which just links back to Voting Record — Theresa May MP, Maidenhead (10426) — The Public Whip

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I think thats the sad thing about all of this politics stuff, as if we're always agreeing on everything. I don't particular think it's necessary and perhaps even think it can be counter productive at times. We'll have to watch this space to see how all of this turns out, best of luck to her and the huge responsibility she's taken upon herself. I've got to give her credit for the willingness to fill those shoes. I'm not really keen on any party as all are pretty crap to be honest, not impressed in the slightest. Neither am I really into politics, but don't consider ignorance bliss either. Referendums should be the new way of democracy, at least it would feel like a real democracy.

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Pray she is just a brilliant actress

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Referendums should be the new way of democracy, at least it would feel like a real democracy.

Well, it might feel that way, but it isn't actually unless people know what the referendum truly means and make reasonably rational decisions based on it, and if the implementation of the result follows their specific wishes.

The EU referendum is a great example - as if we needed another - of so-called 'elites' manipulating and lying to the disaffected in order to get them to vote against their own self-interest.

The Conservatives now have carte blanche to rewrite most of the UK rules and regulations regarding business, labor, environment, immigration, human rights, and much else - which is certainly not what they were elected to do.

I suspect the 'ordinary' people who voted out because they feel they've been left behind will end up feeling that the EU rules were useful protection against a majority conservative government, especially with the power to reshape the country it now has.

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Well, it might feel that way, but it isn't actually unless people know what the referendum truly means and make reasonably rational decisions based on it, and if the implementation of the result follows their specific wishes.

The EU referendum is a great example - as if we needed another - of so-called 'elites' manipulating and lying to the disaffected in order to get them to vote against their own self-interest.

The Conservatives now have carte blanche to rewrite most of the UK rules and regulations regarding business, labor, environment, immigration, human rights, and much else - which is certainly not what they were elected to do.

I suspect the 'ordinary' people who voted out because they feel they've been left behind will end up feeling that the EU rules were useful protection against a majority conservative government, especially with the power to reshape the country it now has.

I'm not too sure they would think that as the leave individuals I know come from a wide diverse range on backgrounds/professions. However at least even though the Cons have that responsibility to do that, if change need to be made that can be done at some point, which seemed impossible or nearly impossible within the EU. I'm not expecting the coming few years ahead to be smooth sailing, so we'll have to wait and see how it all plays out.

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Britain opened "very fruitful" trade talks with Canada on Friday, International Trade Secretary Liam Fox told the Sunday Times newspaper as he prepares to renegotiate Britain's commercial ties following its vote last month to leave the European Union.

In limited extracts of his interview, Fox said he would soon travel to the United States to ensure that Britain was not at the back of the queue in trade talks as President Barack Obama had suggested before the June 23 vote.

He said was "scoping" about a dozen free trade deals outside the EU to be ready for when Britain leaves, some with countries that had indicated they wanted a quick deal and others with some of the world's major economies.

"We can make Britain a beacon for open trade," he told the paper. "We have already had a number of countries saying 'we'd love to do a trade deal with the world's fifth-biggest economy without having to deal with the other 27 members of the EU.'"

The European Commission negotiates trade deals on behalf of its member states, meaning Britain has not had to forge its own deals since it joined the bloc in 1973.


On Reuters

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Quoting 
The fact is that the longer the Article 50 notification is put off, the greater the chance it will never be made at all.

Why the Article 50 notification is important ? Jack of Kent blog

Also, from our new chancellor :

Brexit could take up to six years to complete, says Philip Hammond | Politics | The Guardian

Politics....

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It is rather interesting to see what asset was considered safe haven during Brexit (based on price rise)

1) Silver
2) Gold
3) T Bonds
4) Yen
5) US $
6) Swiss Frank (-2.7%)

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German economists’ assessment of economic sentiment in Germany has plunged to the lowest level since 2012 amid concerns over “export prospects and the stability of the European banking and financial system” in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU.



The German economic sentiment index dived to minus 6.8, down from 19.2 in June and well below economists’ forecasts of a positive reading of 9. This month’s reading is the lowest level since November 2012, and the second largest month-on-month decline of the last 16 years, topped only in 2012.


The index tracking the current assessment of business conditions in Germany fell to 49.8, down from 54.5 in June, according to the closely watched survey conducted by the German ZEW think tank. This was below forecasts of a reading of 51.8.

The assessment of eurozone economic sentiment fell to minus 14.7, down from 20.2 in June. This month’s reading was the biggest monthly drop ever.



ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach placed the responsibility for the sharp deterioration squarely on the shoulders of the Brexit vote.

Full article on FT

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German economists’ assessment of economic sentiment in Germany has plunged to the lowest level since 2012 amid concerns over “export prospects and the stability of the European banking and financial system” in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU.

I am acutely aware of the fact that I keep posting only 'doom-and-gloom' articles about Brexit.

The fact is, whether it's mainstream media narrative or not, I can't seem to come across many article casting any positive effects of Brexit from a macroeconomic standpoint.

Granted, given where Cable is, and given the negative outlook at the moment, there won't be too many positive spins on this, I get that.

But to completely ignore that there will be some positive sides as well (which I'm sure there are, it's only a matter of finding them) seems puzzling to me.

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I am acutely aware of the fact that I keep posting only 'doom-and-gloom' articles about Brexit.

The fact is, whether it's mainstream media narrative or not, I can't seem to come across many article casting any positive effects of Brexit from a macroeconomic standpoint.

Granted, given where Cable is, and given the negative outlook at the moment, there won't be too many positive spins on this, I get that.

But to completely ignore that there will be some positive sides as well (which I'm sure there are, it's only a matter of finding them) seems puzzling to me.

Kind depends on positive, seems good for people in the US due to the exchange rate

Brexit Turning London Into The New Prague | Dealbreaker

English people will welcome tourists more warmly soon as they can't afford to leave themselves. They will appreciate stories of the outside world from foreigners.

Sucks for me as again today (well yesterday) I missed a good chance to move my remaining £ cash to Colombia.

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xplorer View Post
I am acutely aware of the fact that I keep posting only 'doom-and-gloom' articles about Brexit.

The fact is, whether it's mainstream media narrative or not, I can't seem to come across many article casting any positive effects of Brexit from a macroeconomic standpoint.

Granted, given where Cable is, and given the negative outlook at the moment, there won't be too many positive spins on this, I get that.

But to completely ignore that there will be some positive sides as well (which I'm sure there are, it's only a matter of finding them) seems puzzling to me.

Its extremely difficult to determine or project positive or negative macroeconomic outcomes at this early stage. There were several medium to longer term quite detailed brexit reports in the months leading up to the vote, but they focussed almost exclusively on the impact upon the UK economy and the variations were enormous and very dependent upon the type of trade arrangements the UK makes both with europe and around the globe, together with the increase or reduction in UK business regulations and red tape implemented by the current and future governments. So they really weren't very useful at all...

The level of chaos and disruption that just about every major financial, business and political figure or institution warned of has not come about. The IMF projected a UK recession, the UK chancellor threatened an emergency budget, etc. Both have since retracted those predictions. The IMF has this week reduced its UK GDP forecast by 90bps, to 1.3% which is certainly a large one-step reduction, but does not project a recession. And its forecast for the UK over the next 1-3 years is higher than those it's made for Germany, France and Italy. The initial liquidity crisis also failed to materialise. Next quarter's UK GDP will be a huge focus of attention.

I think the larger negative outcomes may well come from within the euro zone itself, via the italian banking crisis and the raft of national referenda demanded by a number of nations on a variety of topics. The Italian referendum on whether to keep the euro currency will be the next major test for the federal EU political integration project.

It's still very early days and nothing much will change in terms of brexit as the negotiations inevitably drag on, but here's some positive stories you've missed to cheer us all up while we watch it all unfold!

So far, so good for the post-Brexit economy

Bank of England officials admit the British economy has not slowed down since Brexit | Daily Mail Online

Bank of England's positive statement and less unemployment boosts Theresa May's government* | Daily Mail Online

FTSE 100 smashes 6,700 and pound breaks $1.31 as Bank of England survey shows 'no clear evidence' of sharp Brexit slowdown

UK property market: House prices rise nationwide following Brexit vote | UK | News | Daily Express

EU bank boss Mario Draghi says fears Brexit will damage economy are overblown | UK | News | Daily Express

Wells Fargo Said to Pay $397 Million for City of London Office - Bloomberg
Wells Fargo buys 33 Central London office for £300 million despite Brexit - Business Insider

Brexit reaction: Madison International Realty plans to spend £1 billion on London property - Business Insider

Boost for UK tourism as millions of Britons opt for a 'staycation': Terrorism fears and weak pound help bookings increase by 25% | Daily Mail Online


Ok, I think this one is just a weeeee bit OTT!!
UK economy booms following Brexit referendum vote | UK | News | Daily Express

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Its extremely difficult to determine or project positive or negative macroeconomic outcomes at this early stage. There were several medium to longer term quite detailed brexit reports in the months leading up to the vote, but they focussed almost exclusively on the impact upon the UK economy and the variations were enormous and very dependent upon the type of trade arrangements the UK makes both with europe and around the globe, together with the increase or reduction in UK business regulations and red tape implemented by the current and future governments. So they really weren't very useful at all...

The level of chaos and disruption that just about every major financial, business and political figure or institution warned of has not come about. The IMF projected a UK recession, the UK chancellor threatened an emergency budget, etc. Both have since retracted those predictions. The IMF has this week reduced its UK GDP forecast by 90bps, to 1.3% which is certainly a large one-step reduction, but does not project a recession. And its forecast for the UK over the next 1-3 years is higher than those it's made for Germany, France and Italy. The initial liquidity crisis also failed to materialise. Next quarter's UK GDP will be a huge focus of attention.

I think the larger negative outcomes may well come from within the euro zone itself, via the italian banking crisis and the raft of national referenda demanded by a number of nations on a variety of topics. The Italian referendum on whether to keep the euro currency will be the next major test for the federal EU political integration project.

It's still very early days and nothing much will change in terms of brexit as the negotiations inevitably drag on, but here's some positive stories you've missed to cheer us all up while we watch it all unfold!

So far, so good for the post-Brexit economy

Bank of England officials admit the British economy has not slowed down since Brexit | Daily Mail Online

Bank of England's positive statement and less unemployment boosts Theresa May's government* | Daily Mail Online

FTSE 100 smashes 6,700 and pound breaks $1.31 as Bank of England survey shows 'no clear evidence' of sharp Brexit slowdown

UK property market: House prices rise nationwide following Brexit vote | UK | News | Daily Express

EU bank boss Mario Draghi says fears Brexit will damage economy are overblown | UK | News | Daily Express

Wells Fargo Said to Pay $397 Million for City of London Office - Bloomberg
Wells Fargo buys 33 Central London office for £300 million despite Brexit - Business Insider

Brexit reaction: Madison International Realty plans to spend £1 billion on London property - Business Insider

Boost for UK tourism as millions of Britons opt for a 'staycation': Terrorism fears and weak pound help bookings increase by 25% | Daily Mail Online


Ok, I think this one is just a weeeee bit OTT!!
UK economy booms following Brexit referendum vote | UK | News | Daily Express

Thanks bebop - Not wanting to get into an argument with anyone but Daily Express is not really a source I consider reliable, to put it mildly, and neither is the Daily Mail come to that.

Telegraph is better.

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bebop View Post
The level of chaos and disruption that just about every major financial, business and political figure or institution warned of has not come about. The IMF projected a UK recession, the UK chancellor threatened an emergency budget, etc. Both have since retracted those predictions. The IMF has this week reduced its UK GDP forecast by 90bps, to 1.3% which is certainly a large one-step reduction, but does not project a recession. And its forecast for the UK over the next 1-3 years is higher than those it's made for Germany, France and Italy. The initial liquidity crisis also failed to materialise. Next quarter's UK GDP will be a huge focus of attention.

I had this exact discussion with my parents last night. They said something on the same lines, "look at all the doom and gloom that was predicted and none of it has come true" to which I replied "Yet!"

At this point all that has happened is that the UK has a referendum. They haven't left Europe Union, they haven't even agreed to leave the Union, in fact one of the few things they have agreed is that they won't be leaving the Union in 2016.

So with regards to all the "doom and gloom" I think it's a little early to say. Lets see what the situation is 18 months after they actually leave, rather than 4 weeks after a referendum which so far hasn't changed anything yet.

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Gotta say I think this has been an excellent thread. Lot of information and open discussion, without the bias's and phobia's that often accompany a discussion like this. Thanks All.

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SMCJB View Post
I had this exact discussion with my parents last night. They said something on the same lines, "look at all the doom and gloom that was predicted and none of it has come true" to which I replied "Yet!"



At this point all that has happened is that the UK has a referendum. They haven't left Europe Union, they haven't even agreed to leave the Union, in fact one of the few things they have agreed is that they won't be leaving the Union in 2016.



So with regards to all the "doom and gloom" I think it's a little early to say. Lets see what the situation is 18 months after they actually leave, rather than 4 weeks after a referendum which so far hasn't changed anything yet.



Nice work on this post. Mature view point IMHO.

We are organic beings. Obviously, like so many other things in this world. For example, when a tree starts to die it doesn't happen in a short time period like a week or month unless it's some violent event i.e. Tornado, fire... but even if its ripped out from the ground it's not dead that instance.

IMHO the affects will materialize over the course of years. Separateness was a condition of the past. Talking hundreds and thousands of years ago here. Today in this day, we have a much greater understanding that we are all on this relatively small planet together (as opposed to thousands of years ago) enjoying photographs from space of our home (witchcraft 700 yrs ago...lol). We enjoy the fruit of mankind's maturity with instant communication, easy of travel, (yes some 3rd world countries don't yet have some of this and shame on us (humanity) how many geniuses are left untrained never to reach their potential) great medical advancements (transplanted hearts etc) shelter and comfort from the extremes of natures season etc etc.

At some point in the distant futures we will look back at ourselves as a unified world and marvel at our development witnessing histories immature moments.

Ron

Edit: grammar

...My calamity is My providence, outwardly it is fire and vengeance, but inwardly it is light and mercy...
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...They haven't left Europe Union, they haven't even agreed to leave the Union, in fact one of the few things they have agreed is that they won't be leaving the Union in 2016.

So with regards to all the "doom and gloom" I think it's a little early to say. Lets see what the situation is 18 months after they actually leave, rather than 4 weeks after a referendum which so far hasn't changed anything yet.

Heh, that 18-month time period you mention? Seems like it could take a bit longer than that.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/505566/process_for_withdrawing_from_the_european_union.pdf

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The pound looks set to extend its decline next week, when traders and economists predict the Bank of England will cut interest rates for the first time in more than seven years.

Sterling, which posted its third consecutive monthly drop against the dollar in July, has weakened versus all of its 31 major peers in the past three months. Britain’s vote in June to leave the European Union, along with recent economic data which underscored the ensuing setback to consumer confidence and business activity, have boosted speculation that the BOE will loosen monetary policy on Aug. 4.



All but two of the 46 economists in a Bloomberg survey forecast policy makers led by Governor Mark Carney will cut the key interest rate from a record-low 0.5 percent. While the median estimate in a separate survey was for the BOE to maintain its asset-purchase target at 375 billion pounds ($498 billion), the highest forecast of 525 billion pounds underlined the uncertainty over the extent of the BOE’s stimulus measures. The central bank will also release its quarterly Inflation Report.


Full article on Bloomberg

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The Bank of England has announced the first change to its benchmark policy rate since 2009, and a raft of further stimulus measures the help mitigate the impact of the UK’s Brexit vote.


Economists and investors reactions from FT

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This is a couple of weeks old but still interesting



"The pharmaceutical firm, whose chief executive Sir Andrew Witty backed the Remain campaign, said the UK's skilled workforce and competitive tax system helped drive the decision.

It said most of the products made at the expanded sites would be exported.

The firm said it expected its investment to create jobs.

The company has invested £750m in new facilities over the past six years. This latest decision takes the total up to £1bn.

The investment will be spread across three of its UK manufacturing sites: Barnard Castle in County Durham, Montrose in Angus, and Ware in Hertfordshire.

GlaxoSmithKline currently employs 16,000 people in the UK, 6,000 of which are employed in manufacturing.
"


Full article on BBC News

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Quoting 
China has issued its sternest warning yet to the UK that bilateral ties stand at a “crucial historical juncture” over London’s deferral of an £18bn nuclear power project.

Liu Xiaoming, China’s ambassador to the UK, drew a clear link between Beijing’s desire to see an early go-ahead for the controversial Hinkley Point power project and the future of the UK-China relationship.

“Right now, the China-UK relationship is at a crucial historical juncture … I hope the UK will keep its door open to China,” Mr Liu wrote in the Financial Times.

He hoped the British government would “continue to support Hinkley Point — and come to a decision as soon as possible so that the project can proceed smoothly.”

The UK’s move last month to review the landmark deal, under which a Chinese consortium is due to part-finance the power station to be built by France’s EDF, threw into doubt a “golden era” of ties proclaimed during a visit to the UK by Xi Jinping, China’s president, last year.

Any cancellation of the Hinkley deal would be likely to jeopardise other planned Chinese investments in the UK, according to Chinese officials, who declined to be identified. Nearly £40bn in investment deals and contracts were secured for the UK during Mr Xi’s visit.

Noting that over the past five years, Chinese companies have invested more in the UK than in Germany, France and Italy combined, Mr Liu said that trust and respect needed to be “treasured even more” as the UK decides on the Hinkley project.

-James Kynge and Henry Mance FT


Quite an interesting and aggressive stance from the Chinese. I found it odd that they would be so aggressive in pushing a deal that they are simply financing. For me that is a red flag. It could add further delays to the deal if the UK were to re-evaluate the financing and go over the details once again or if T. May felt the need to show strength and pushed back after these comments.

Perhaps they think they can be pushy as we are 'desperate' but we aren't out of the EU yet.

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Quite an interesting and aggressive stance from the Chinese. I found it odd that they would be so aggressive in pushing a deal that they are simply financing. For me that is a red flag. It could add further delays to the deal if the UK were to re-evaluate the financing and go over the details once again or if T. May felt the need to show strength and pushed back after these comments.

Perhaps they think they can be pushy as we are 'desperate' but we aren't out of the EU yet.

Thanks CobblersAwls - Just trying to understand what's the Brexit angle about this story.

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Thanks CobblersAwls - Just trying to understand what's the Brexit angle about this story.

The fact that one of the main arguments and tactics of Brexiteers was to establish strong relationships with China and other major global powers, moving away from a reliance on the EU. If we take the comments in this article as close to fact, then it seems the Chinese see these as less of a relationship and more a dictatorship.

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"The pound fell for a second week as the Bank of England restarted its stimulus program, leaving the U.K. currency as, once again, the year’s worst performer.

Before the BOE’s revamped bond purchases started on Monday, sterling had conceded the dubious honor of being the biggest loser among 32 major currencies to the Argentine peso as it rallied from its post-Brexit lows. The pound is now back below $1.30 for the first time since July as the easy money policies designed to shield the economy from the decision to quit the European Union take effect."




Full article on Bloomberg

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"The pound fell for a second week as the Bank of England restarted its stimulus program, leaving the U.K. currency as, once again, the year’s worst performer.

Before the BOE’s revamped bond purchases started on Monday, sterling had conceded the dubious honor of being the biggest loser among 32 major currencies to the Argentine peso as it rallied from its post-Brexit lows. The pound is now back below $1.30 for the first time since July as the easy money policies designed to shield the economy from the decision to quit the European Union take effect."




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FT groupthink


Quoting 
THURSDAY, AUGUST 11, 2016

Financial Times Editor Exposed (Accidental Public Tweet)
Financial Times editor Lionel Barber thought he was sending out a direct private tweet.

Not so, He accidently sent the tweet out a publicly.

In the tweet, he attached a letter that informed that he had been chosen to be awarded the Légion d’Honneur by French President François Hollande.

There is no doubt, he was awardred this because of his pro-EU, anti-Brexit stance.

This explains why as part of the tweet he included the message:
confidentially because bad publicity in UK right now

source:
EconomicPolicyJournal.com: Financial Times Editor Exposed (Accidental Public Tweet)

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"British employers have turned more cautious about hiring and the price of homes for sale fell by the most since late 2015, according to surveys that added to signs the economy has stumbled since the Brexit referendum.

But shoppers seem to have brushed off the shock of the June vote to leave the European Union, another survey showed, suggesting consumer spending will soften the hit.

Many economists believe Britain is heading for a recession followed by years of slow growth because of uncertainty about its future trading relationship with the EU.

Earlier this month, the Bank of England cut interest rates and took other measures to soften the impact of Brexit, which it believes will push up the unemployment rate sharply.

One of Monday's surveys showed the proportion of employers expecting to increase staffing over the next three months dropped from 40 percent before the vote to 36 percent after it.

The CIPD, a human resources group, and staffing firm Adecco Group UK & Ireland, also said one in five employers expected to reduce investment in training and skills as a result of Brexit, which will push up the cost of imports because of the fall in the value of the pound. Seven percent planned to invest more."



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The falling pound pushed up import prices in July, which may herald a broader acceleration in inflation in Britain

"LONDON—A sharp fall in the pound since the U.K. voted to leave the European Union pushed up import prices in July at the fastest pace in five years, which may foreshadow a broader acceleration in inflation in Britain following June’s Brexit vote.

Import prices rose 6.5% on the year in July, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday, the fastest annual rate of growth since 2011. That pushed up companies’ overall raw material costs by 4.3%, the quickest increase since 2013.

The acceleration in companies’ costs suggests price increases for consumers may be coming. Consumer-price inflation rose 0.6% on the year in July, up from 0.5% in June. That is still well below the Bank of England’s 2% target, but central-bank officials expect inflation to accelerate this year and next as sterling’s slide works its way through the economy. "

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The falling pound pushed up import prices in July, which may herald a broader acceleration in inflation in Britain

"LONDON—A sharp fall in the pound since the U.K. voted to leave the European Union pushed up import prices in July at the fastest pace in five years, which may foreshadow a broader acceleration in inflation in Britain following June’s Brexit vote.

Import prices rose 6.5% on the year in July, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday, the fastest annual rate of growth since 2011. That pushed up companies’ overall raw material costs by 4.3%, the quickest increase since 2013.

The acceleration in companies’ costs suggests price increases for consumers may be coming. Consumer-price inflation rose 0.6% on the year in July, up from 0.5% in June. That is still well below the Bank of England’s 2% target, but central-bank officials expect inflation to accelerate this year and next as sterling’s slide works its way through the economy. "

Full article on the Wall Street Journal


This is quite funny in a way. Forget QE and low interest rates, all we needed to hit our inflation target was to vote for Brexit!

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We won't trigger Article 50 until after 2017 ? and that means Brexit may never happen at all | Voices | The Independent

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Dive in sterling after Brexit vote gave a strong boost to exports of manufactured goods this month, according to survey

Manufacturers have reported a fall in orders this month, but the slide has been less than expected after exports rose to their highest level in two years.

A survey by the business lobby group the CBI found that the dive in sterling, prompted by the vote to leave the EU, gave a strong boost to exports of manufactured goods that offset uncertainty in the domestic market.

The survey found that total order books were slightly weaker than in the three months to July, down from a balance of -4 in the three months to July to -5 in August.

But the overall picture was of an industry with orders that remained “comfortably above the long-run average” and with output growth “at a healthy pace”.



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With apologies for asking the question yet again, what will the economic effects of the UK leaving the EU be? In the past fortnight, Brexit supporters have started to claim their optimism is being justified by a buoyant stock market and strong figures for jobs and shop sales.

If Britain in August participated in anything resembling political debate, “What was all the fuss about?” would probably have been the prevailing argument. The only honest answer to the question of Brexit’s effects is “Don’t know”, at least with any precision.

But the strongest clue has not come from the stock market or July’s unemployment and retail sales but from the currency markets. There, the message has been consistent and its implications have still to sink in.

On June 23, the day of the referendum, sterling reached a high of $1.50 and €1.31 shortly after polls closed. It then plummeted, and has since averaged at about $1.30 and €1.18. In trade-weighted terms, the pound is down more than 15 per cent from its level a year ago, when David Cameron, then prime minister, started the renegotiations that would lead to the referendum.

The foreign exchange markets are not always a reliable witness. They can be skittish, and their daily movements are sometimes impenetrable. But when rates move sharply and then settle for more than a month without second thoughts, their judgment shouldn’t be ignored. It is backed not by punditry but by many billions of dollars from in and outside the UK, so deserves more attention than it has been getting.

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On June 23, the day of the referendum, sterling reached a high of $1.50 and €1.31 shortly after polls closed. It then plummeted, and has since averaged at about $1.30 and €1.18. In trade-weighted terms, the pound is down more than 15 per cent from its level a year ago, when David Cameron, then prime minister, started the renegotiations that would lead to the referendum.

A lower trade-weighted currency has always been the UK's traditional escape route from a crisis, no change there. Surprise-free zone really, as our currency, like all others of the air-based variety, has always been overvalued. Once Fiat escaped Gold, rather like Volkswagen escaped emissions standards, the only measure of a currency has been what its government could get away with. As such, the freedom for Starlings to drop from the sky is as much a safety-net net-advantage as it is a handicap. It's also hard fitting a 'B' into PIGS.

The poor and the desperate, as well as the hard-working and naive, will continue to suffer in ignorance for as long as the elite can get freshly-minted earlier than most. But what else was Hadrian's Wall built from? I remain conflicted in extrēmīs. Affordable morality (like infrastructure, manufacturing bases and family capital) is so passé, especially in front of either an AK47 or the Welfare State.

Have a good bank-holiday weekend, for surely they will (end) someday - but we are currently unable to count (down).

Cheers
(at least 15% grimmer wine tonight..)

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Consumer confidence partly recovered this month as Britons chose to carry on spending rather than saving after the Brexit vote.

Market research firm GfK's headline consumer confidence reading was -7 for August.

That was up from -12 in July when the index saw its sharpest drop in 26 years, following the EU referendum.

The report, coming as separate figures showed an uptick in house price growth, adds to signs that UK households are shrugging off the impact of the referendum vote.

GfK's figures indicated a steep fall in saving as interest rates were cut to a new low by the Bank of England.

Meanwhile there was a rise in its index of demand for major purchases, such as cars.


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After leaving the EU, Britain will seek a “unique” model that will confirm its place as “one of the great trading nations in the world”, the government declared after ministers met to thrash out what Theresa May’s statement that “Brexit means Brexit” would mean.

The UK would seek “controls on the numbers of people who come to Britain from Europe” but also “a positive outcome for those who wish to trade goods and services”, Mrs May’s spokeswoman said after the cabinet had gathered for its first meeting after the summer break.

But tensions are already growing among ministers about the precise form Brexit will eventually take. The biggest divisions are over the balance between market access — through the EU customs union and the single market — and immigration, which is still at near-record levels.

Mrs May aims to invoke Article 50, the formal mechanism that triggers a negotiation period of up to two years, early in the new year and without a parliamentary vote. She has dismissed the prospect of holding a second referendum and intends to press ahead with Britain’s exit from the EU.

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Britain’s dominant services sector recovered strongly in August after slumping to a seven-year low in the first full month following Britain’s vote to leave the EU, a closely-watched survey of activity suggests.

The services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) bounced back in August well above the crucial 50 mark that divides contraction and growth, recording a reading of 52.9. The index had slumped to an 88-month low of 47.4 in July, as investors and customers took a pause for breath to digest the result of the EU membership referendum.

Economists had expected the services PMI to recover to a reading of 50 for August. The month-on-month gain in the survey last month, at 5.5 points, was the largest observed over the 20-year history of the survey, according to IHS Markit which compiles the PMI.

Similar surveys for the construction and manufacturing industries also showed an improvement last month.

Full article on FT

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Good info,

Im long on the pound, I think it will make a pretty much full recovery

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Two leading City institutions have cancelled predictions of an EU referendum recession and revised their economic forecasts higher in response to better than expected economic surveys.

Economists from Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley lifted growth predictions for 2016 and 2017, removing the expectation of a recession, but they said the Brexit vote would still slow growth.

The upward revisions followed good August results in the three main purchasing manager surveys — for the services, manufacturing and construction sectors. Brexit-supporting MPs said the results demonstrate the economy would remain robust following the vote.

Credit Suisse increased its forecast for 2016 growth from 1 per cent to 1.9 per cent and its 2017 forecast from a contraction of 1 per cent to growth of 0.5 per cent. Its economists had been the second most pessimistic among those surveyed by the Treasury in August.

Sonali Punhani, an economist at Credit Suisse, said that recent data had demonstrated that the shock of Brexit was “materially less than we expected in late June”.

Full article on the Financial Times

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Interesting and perhaps sobering piece on the Financial Times

Leave supporters view an EU deal as an event. In truth, it will be a long, tortuous process

What was all the fuss about? The sun is still shining, the economy is growing and Scotland has not seceded. It is time for pro-European doomsters to admit it: Brexit was good for Britain. Now the world awaits its return as a truly “sovereign” nation. All that remains is for Theresa May’s government to step up the pace of negotiations in order to sever ties with Brussels sooner rather than later.

So says the prevailing mood nearly three months after the popular vote to take Britain out of the EU. One could quibble with the detail. The latest rises in some economic indicators reflect a reversal of earlier post-Brexit falls rather than a sign of a coming boom. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence that business is holding back on investment. The public finances are set to worsen. As for the fall of sterling, well, yes, it has made exports cheaper, but at the expense of lowering living standards. The nation once jeered when a former Labour prime minister, Harold Wilson, claimed devaluation did not hit the pound in voters’ pockets.

No matter. Hubristic denial is the order of the day. In any event, an argument about the immediate impact of the vote misses the point. The Brexiters now trumpeting a bright independent future see departure from the EU as an event. In truth it will be a long, tortuous process — a slow burn, if you like, with costs, economic and political, that will reach well into coming decades. To make such an obvious point is not to talk Britain down: the fact that things seem fine now says next to nothing about the consequences along the road.

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The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has slashed its growth forecast for the UK in the light of the Brexit vote.

It now expects the UK to grow 1.8% this year, down from its March estimate of 2.2%, and by 1% in 2017 compared with its original forecast of 2.3%.

Uncertainty surrounding the UK's negotiations over its EU exit would "dampen growth prospects", it said, while consumer spending would weaken.

It said the UK "would skirt with", but avoid, a recession.

However, a separate report on business conditions from accountancy and services group BDO said optimism was improving, after falling to a three-year low last month.

'Sharp slowdown'

The forecast from the BCC is the first it has made since the EU referendum, and it warned that, while it did not expect a recession, companies were still digesting the results of June's EU referendum.

In total, the business group said its downgrades implied the UK economy would be £43.8bn smaller by the end of 2018 then it had expected before the EU vote.

But it said the slide in sterling since the vote should improve the UK's net trade position.



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FT/Reuters today reported

Britain’s vote to leave the EU in June has left the labour market unruffled so far, according to official data that show the unemployment rate remains at an 11-year low.

Both the unemployment and the employment rate held steady in the three months to the end of July at 4.9 and 74.5 per cent respectively. The unemployment rate in the month of July — the first month after the Brexit vote — was 4.7 per cent, although the monthly figures are volatile.

The data add to the sense the Brexit vote has done less immediate damage to the economy than some had predicted, although the Bank of England believes growth has halved since the referendum.

“The main message from this report … is that it is business as usual after the referendum: firms have not stopped hiring,” said Alan Clarke, an economist at Scotiabank. “Clearly there are risks that this is the calm before the storm. But for now there don’t seem to be any storm clouds on the horizon.”

However, other economists were more pessimistic, predicting a “slow burn effect” that would hurt the labour market over the longer-term.

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Am I missing something?

How did we go from


Quoting 
Both the unemployment and the employment rate held steady in the three months to the end of July at 4.9 and 74.5 per cent respectively. The unemployment rate in the month of July — the first month after the Brexit vote — was 4.7 per cent

to this guy saying


Quoting 
“The main message from this report … is that it is business as usual after the referendum: firms have not stopped hiring,” said Alan Clarke, an economist at Scotiabank.

The figures above to me suggest that noone has been let go from their job yet, but that's all. Am I reading it wrong?

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Am I missing something?

How did we go from



to this guy saying



The figures above to me suggest that noone has been let go from their job yet, but that's all. Am I reading it wrong?

It probably depends on what their definition actually is of "employment rate" and "unemployment rate".

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It probably depends on what their definition actually is of "employment rate" and "unemployment rate".

Employment rate
In United Kingdom, the employment rate measures the number of people who have a job as a percentage of the working age population.

Unemployment rate
In the United Kingdom, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force.


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Unemployment rate
In the United Kingdom, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force.


I think that "actively looking for a job", in that definition, is probably itself defined as people receiving the "job-seekers' allowance", in which case the actuality is rather different: there are many in that group who are actually far from "actively looking for a job".

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The exodus of banks from the City in the event of a “hard Brexit” would be modest and manageable, one of the world’s three biggest rating agencies has predicted.

A report by Moody’s said there would be a loss of business if the referendum result leads to Britain leaving the single market as well as the EU, but the impact would be less serious than some experts have suggested.

Since the vote, there have been concerns that a departure from the single market will result in the loss of passporting rights – the array of permissions granted to London-based banks and other financial companies, which allow them to operate across the EU and the wider European Economic Area (EEA).

Jens Weidmann, the president of the Bundesbank, said in a Guardian interview that without passporting rights London’s position as a financial centre would be jeopardised.

But Moody’s said the direct impact on the banks and financial services companies for which it provided ratings was “likely to be modest”.

It added: “The greater impact would be felt through higher costs and diversion of management attention, as the companies concerned restructure, reducing profitability for a time. This is credit negative but manageable. And other critical factors such as capital and liquidity, which are largely determined by global standards, are unlikely to face material changes due to Brexit per se.”

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