Brexit 101 (Page 37) - Traders Hideout | futures.io
futures.io futures trading
 

Go Back   futures.io

> Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout


Brexit 101
Started:February 27th, 2016 (10:02 AM) by xplorer Views / Replies:14,698 / 470
Last Reply:22 Hours Ago (05:24 PM) Attachments:44

Welcome to futures.io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike
     

Reply
 44  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread

Brexit 101

Old July 17th, 2016, 05:50 AM   #361 (permalink)
Elite Member
Amsterdam
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: 6B GU 6E EU
 
jtrade's Avatar
 
Posts: 221 since Feb 2010
Thanks: 273 given, 174 received


Quoting 
The fact is that the longer the Article 50 notification is put off, the greater the chance it will never be made at all.

Why the Article 50 notification is important ? Jack of Kent blog

Also, from our new chancellor :

Brexit could take up to six years to complete, says Philip Hammond | Politics | The Guardian

Politics....

Reply With Quote
     

Old July 17th, 2016, 07:37 PM   #362 (permalink)
Elite Member
Boca Raton
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Variety
Broker/Data: Optimus Futures, LLC
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
mattz's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,817 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 1,738 given, 2,455 received

It is rather interesting to see what asset was considered safe haven during Brexit (based on price rise)

1) Silver
2) Gold
3) T Bonds
4) Yen
5) US $
6) Swiss Frank (-2.7%)

Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PM with any questions about optimusfutures (800) 771-6748 (561) 367 8686. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING.
Reply With Quote
     
The following 4 users say Thank You to mattz for this post:
     

Old July 19th, 2016, 09:06 AM   #363 (permalink)
Market Wizard
London UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,475 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 2,447 given, 1,841 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

ZEW: German economic sentiment plunges after Brexit vote


German economists’ assessment of economic sentiment in Germany has plunged to the lowest level since 2012 amid concerns over “export prospects and the stability of the European banking and financial system” in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



The German economic sentiment index dived to minus 6.8, down from 19.2 in June and well below economists’ forecasts of a positive reading of 9. This month’s reading is the lowest level since November 2012, and the second largest month-on-month decline of the last 16 years, topped only in 2012.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


The index tracking the current assessment of business conditions in Germany fell to 49.8, down from 54.5 in June, according to the closely watched survey conducted by the German ZEW think tank. This was below forecasts of a reading of 51.8.

The assessment of eurozone economic sentiment fell to minus 14.7, down from 20.2 in June. This month’s reading was the biggest monthly drop ever.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach placed the responsibility for the sharp deterioration squarely on the shoulders of the Brexit vote.

Full article on FT

Reply With Quote
     
The following 3 users say Thank You to xplorer for this post:
     

Old July 19th, 2016, 07:58 PM   #364 (permalink)
Market Wizard
London UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,475 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 2,447 given, 1,841 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


xplorer View Post
German economists’ assessment of economic sentiment in Germany has plunged to the lowest level since 2012 amid concerns over “export prospects and the stability of the European banking and financial system” in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU.

I am acutely aware of the fact that I keep posting only 'doom-and-gloom' articles about Brexit.

The fact is, whether it's mainstream media narrative or not, I can't seem to come across many article casting any positive effects of Brexit from a macroeconomic standpoint.

Granted, given where Cable is, and given the negative outlook at the moment, there won't be too many positive spins on this, I get that.

But to completely ignore that there will be some positive sides as well (which I'm sure there are, it's only a matter of finding them) seems puzzling to me.

Reply With Quote
     
The following 3 users say Thank You to xplorer for this post:
     

Old July 19th, 2016, 08:07 PM   #365 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Medellin, Colombia
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TPV/ Custom / R
Favorite Futures: Futurama, Buck Rogers, Minis
 
Rory's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,954 since May 2014
Thanks: 3,676 given, 5,412 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Futures Edge on FIO

xplorer View Post
I am acutely aware of the fact that I keep posting only 'doom-and-gloom' articles about Brexit.

The fact is, whether it's mainstream media narrative or not, I can't seem to come across many article casting any positive effects of Brexit from a macroeconomic standpoint.

Granted, given where Cable is, and given the negative outlook at the moment, there won't be too many positive spins on this, I get that.

But to completely ignore that there will be some positive sides as well (which I'm sure there are, it's only a matter of finding them) seems puzzling to me.

Kind depends on positive, seems good for people in the US due to the exchange rate

Brexit Turning London Into The New Prague | Dealbreaker

English people will welcome tourists more warmly soon as they can't afford to leave themselves. They will appreciate stories of the outside world from foreigners.

Sucks for me as again today (well yesterday) I missed a good chance to move my remaining £ cash to Colombia.

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to Rory for this post:
     

Old July 22nd, 2016, 04:42 AM   #366 (permalink)
Elite Member
Lima Peru
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja CQG OEC currenex
Favorite Futures: ES CL
 
Posts: 45 since May 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 66 received


xplorer View Post
I am acutely aware of the fact that I keep posting only 'doom-and-gloom' articles about Brexit.

The fact is, whether it's mainstream media narrative or not, I can't seem to come across many article casting any positive effects of Brexit from a macroeconomic standpoint.

Granted, given where Cable is, and given the negative outlook at the moment, there won't be too many positive spins on this, I get that.

But to completely ignore that there will be some positive sides as well (which I'm sure there are, it's only a matter of finding them) seems puzzling to me.

Its extremely difficult to determine or project positive or negative macroeconomic outcomes at this early stage. There were several medium to longer term quite detailed brexit reports in the months leading up to the vote, but they focussed almost exclusively on the impact upon the UK economy and the variations were enormous and very dependent upon the type of trade arrangements the UK makes both with europe and around the globe, together with the increase or reduction in UK business regulations and red tape implemented by the current and future governments. So they really weren't very useful at all...

The level of chaos and disruption that just about every major financial, business and political figure or institution warned of has not come about. The IMF projected a UK recession, the UK chancellor threatened an emergency budget, etc. Both have since retracted those predictions. The IMF has this week reduced its UK GDP forecast by 90bps, to 1.3% which is certainly a large one-step reduction, but does not project a recession. And its forecast for the UK over the next 1-3 years is higher than those it's made for Germany, France and Italy. The initial liquidity crisis also failed to materialise. Next quarter's UK GDP will be a huge focus of attention.

I think the larger negative outcomes may well come from within the euro zone itself, via the italian banking crisis and the raft of national referenda demanded by a number of nations on a variety of topics. The Italian referendum on whether to keep the euro currency will be the next major test for the federal EU political integration project.

It's still very early days and nothing much will change in terms of brexit as the negotiations inevitably drag on, but here's some positive stories you've missed to cheer us all up while we watch it all unfold!

So far, so good for the post-Brexit economy

Bank of England officials admit the British economy has not slowed down since Brexit | Daily Mail Online

Bank of England's positive statement and less unemployment boosts Theresa May's government* | Daily Mail Online

FTSE 100 smashes 6,700 and pound breaks $1.31 as Bank of England survey shows 'no clear evidence' of sharp Brexit slowdown

UK property market: House prices rise nationwide following Brexit vote | UK | News | Daily Express

EU bank boss Mario Draghi says fears Brexit will damage economy are overblown | UK | News | Daily Express

Wells Fargo Said to Pay $397 Million for City of London Office - Bloomberg
Wells Fargo buys 33 Central London office for £300 million despite Brexit - Business Insider

Brexit reaction: Madison International Realty plans to spend £1 billion on London property - Business Insider

Boost for UK tourism as millions of Britons opt for a 'staycation': Terrorism fears and weak pound help bookings increase by 25% | Daily Mail Online


Ok, I think this one is just a weeeee bit OTT!!
UK economy booms following Brexit referendum vote | UK | News | Daily Express

Reply With Quote
     
The following 2 users say Thank You to bebop for this post:
     

Old July 22nd, 2016, 05:41 AM   #367 (permalink)
Market Wizard
London UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,475 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 2,447 given, 1,841 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


bebop View Post
Its extremely difficult to determine or project positive or negative macroeconomic outcomes at this early stage. There were several medium to longer term quite detailed brexit reports in the months leading up to the vote, but they focussed almost exclusively on the impact upon the UK economy and the variations were enormous and very dependent upon the type of trade arrangements the UK makes both with europe and around the globe, together with the increase or reduction in UK business regulations and red tape implemented by the current and future governments. So they really weren't very useful at all...

The level of chaos and disruption that just about every major financial, business and political figure or institution warned of has not come about. The IMF projected a UK recession, the UK chancellor threatened an emergency budget, etc. Both have since retracted those predictions. The IMF has this week reduced its UK GDP forecast by 90bps, to 1.3% which is certainly a large one-step reduction, but does not project a recession. And its forecast for the UK over the next 1-3 years is higher than those it's made for Germany, France and Italy. The initial liquidity crisis also failed to materialise. Next quarter's UK GDP will be a huge focus of attention.

I think the larger negative outcomes may well come from within the euro zone itself, via the italian banking crisis and the raft of national referenda demanded by a number of nations on a variety of topics. The Italian referendum on whether to keep the euro currency will be the next major test for the federal EU political integration project.

It's still very early days and nothing much will change in terms of brexit as the negotiations inevitably drag on, but here's some positive stories you've missed to cheer us all up while we watch it all unfold!

So far, so good for the post-Brexit economy

Bank of England officials admit the British economy has not slowed down since Brexit | Daily Mail Online

Bank of England's positive statement and less unemployment boosts Theresa May's government* | Daily Mail Online

FTSE 100 smashes 6,700 and pound breaks $1.31 as Bank of England survey shows 'no clear evidence' of sharp Brexit slowdown

UK property market: House prices rise nationwide following Brexit vote | UK | News | Daily Express

EU bank boss Mario Draghi says fears Brexit will damage economy are overblown | UK | News | Daily Express

Wells Fargo Said to Pay $397 Million for City of London Office - Bloomberg
Wells Fargo buys 33 Central London office for £300 million despite Brexit - Business Insider

Brexit reaction: Madison International Realty plans to spend £1 billion on London property - Business Insider

Boost for UK tourism as millions of Britons opt for a 'staycation': Terrorism fears and weak pound help bookings increase by 25% | Daily Mail Online


Ok, I think this one is just a weeeee bit OTT!!
UK economy booms following Brexit referendum vote | UK | News | Daily Express

Thanks bebop - Not wanting to get into an argument with anyone but Daily Express is not really a source I consider reliable, to put it mildly, and neither is the Daily Mail come to that.

Telegraph is better.


Last edited by xplorer; July 22nd, 2016 at 06:02 AM.
Reply With Quote
     
The following 2 users say Thank You to xplorer for this post:
     

Old July 22nd, 2016, 11:51 AM   #368 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,582 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,393 given, 2,353 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


bebop View Post
The level of chaos and disruption that just about every major financial, business and political figure or institution warned of has not come about. The IMF projected a UK recession, the UK chancellor threatened an emergency budget, etc. Both have since retracted those predictions. The IMF has this week reduced its UK GDP forecast by 90bps, to 1.3% which is certainly a large one-step reduction, but does not project a recession. And its forecast for the UK over the next 1-3 years is higher than those it's made for Germany, France and Italy. The initial liquidity crisis also failed to materialise. Next quarter's UK GDP will be a huge focus of attention.

I had this exact discussion with my parents last night. They said something on the same lines, "look at all the doom and gloom that was predicted and none of it has come true" to which I replied "Yet!"

At this point all that has happened is that the UK has a referendum. They haven't left Europe Union, they haven't even agreed to leave the Union, in fact one of the few things they have agreed is that they won't be leaving the Union in 2016.

So with regards to all the "doom and gloom" I think it's a little early to say. Lets see what the situation is 18 months after they actually leave, rather than 4 weeks after a referendum which so far hasn't changed anything yet.

Reply With Quote
     
The following 4 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
     

Old July 22nd, 2016, 11:56 AM   #369 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,582 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,393 given, 2,353 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Gotta say I think this has been an excellent thread. Lot of information and open discussion, without the bias's and phobia's that often accompany a discussion like this. Thanks All.

Reply With Quote
     
The following 4 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
     

Old July 22nd, 2016, 01:03 PM   #370 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago, IL
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NinjaTrader, TWS, FXCM's
Broker/Data: InteractiveBrokers, NinjaTrader Brokerage FXCM, IQFeed
Favorite Futures: ZF, ZN, ZB, ES, FX pairs
 
Blash's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,045 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 2,717 given, 1,354 received

Brexit 101



SMCJB View Post
I had this exact discussion with my parents last night. They said something on the same lines, "look at all the doom and gloom that was predicted and none of it has come true" to which I replied "Yet!"



At this point all that has happened is that the UK has a referendum. They haven't left Europe Union, they haven't even agreed to leave the Union, in fact one of the few things they have agreed is that they won't be leaving the Union in 2016.



So with regards to all the "doom and gloom" I think it's a little early to say. Lets see what the situation is 18 months after they actually leave, rather than 4 weeks after a referendum which so far hasn't changed anything yet.



Nice work on this post. Mature view point IMHO.

We are organic beings. Obviously, like so many other things in this world. For example, when a tree starts to die it doesn't happen in a short time period like a week or month unless it's some violent event i.e. Tornado, fire... but even if its ripped out from the ground it's not dead that instance.

IMHO the affects will materialize over the course of years. Separateness was a condition of the past. Talking hundreds and thousands of years ago here. Today in this day, we have a much greater understanding that we are all on this relatively small planet together (as opposed to thousands of years ago) enjoying photographs from space of our home (witchcraft 700 yrs ago...lol). We enjoy the fruit of mankind's maturity with instant communication, easy of travel, (yes some 3rd world countries don't yet have some of this and shame on us (humanity) how many geniuses are left untrained never to reach their potential) great medical advancements (transplanted hearts etc) shelter and comfort from the extremes of natures season etc etc.

At some point in the distant futures we will look back at ourselves as a unified world and marvel at our development witnessing histories immature moments.

Ron

Edit: grammar

Doubt kills more dreams than failure ever will. Perfect: the enemy of Done. per·fec·tion·ist: ultimately one lacking self-confidence

Quoting 
The steed of this Valley is patience; without patience the wayfarer on this journey will reach nowhere and attain no goal.

Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)

Last edited by Blash; July 22nd, 2016 at 01:13 PM.
Reply With Quote
     
The following 3 users say Thank You to Blash for this post:
     

Reply



futures.io > Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Brexit 101

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

NinjaTrader 8: Features and Enhancements, Tips and Tricks

Dec 6
 

Al Brooks: Stop Losing when a Good Trade goes Bad, Correcting Mistakes

Elite only
 

Trading Technologies: Algo Design Lab hands-on

Dec 13
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
disable sim 101 ness1g NinjaTrader 6 August 9th, 2016 08:39 PM
Future 101 website? jjanguda Commodities Futures Trading 3 May 18th, 2015 11:04 PM
Probability 101 Hotch Traders Hideout 61 February 6th, 2015 11:28 AM
Bugs Trading 101(Techniques,Setups etc) bugsbunny Trading Journals 82 July 19th, 2012 11:03 PM
True Wealth 101 Ch.1: Food. cclsys Off-Topic 1 January 5th, 2010 08:30 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:20 PM.

Copyright © 2016 by futures.io. All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
 
no new posts

Page generated 2016-12-04 in 0.19 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.161.208.7