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Brexit 101
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Brexit 101

  #341 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Updated GBPUSD chart

Courtesy of Nictrades on Twitter

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  #342 (permalink)
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Alexander Betts: Why Brexit happened — and what to do next

"...It's been suggested that we've moved to a postfactual society, where evidence and truth no longer matter, and lies have equal status to the clarity of evidence..."


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  #343 (permalink)
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Sovereign wealth funds are circling for Brexit deals


Global sovereign wealth funds are waiting to pounce on bargains instead of paring stakes in the U.K. following the Brexit vote, a senior industry expert said Friday.

"Sovereign wealth funds are patient capital. They have a long term investment horizon," Michael Maduell, president of the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Friday.

"When everyone is freaking out about the pound sterling going to a 31-year low, wealth funds can come in and tactically purchase assets and tactically place bids on companies."


On CNBC

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  #344 (permalink)
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Consumer confidence plummets after Brexit vote

Scale and speed of fall reinforces case for BoE rate cut next week

British consumer confidence has dropped sharply in the aftermath of the vote to leave the EU.

Amid the political and market turmoil that has followed the vote, a special edition of the GfK survey has recorded one of the biggest falls in its history, falling by eight points to minus 9 in only a few weeks.

The highest the survey has been was 21, out of a possible 50, in January 1978, and the series is often in negative territory because of the way questions are framed.

Nevertheless, the last time the survey, which has been asking the same questions in the same form since 1974, recorded a bigger fall was in the 1990s.

Joe Staton, head of market dynamics at GfK, said it was a “big drop and a clear sign that people are feeling insecure”.


Full article on FT

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U.K. Consumer Confidence Dives After Brexit Vote - WSJ
Steepest fall since 1994 is ominous sign of broader economic slowdown

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  #346 (permalink)
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What it feels to work inside the EU - A Brit's perspective

While I keep looking out for articles that offer an alternative to the 'doom and gloom', post-Brexit vote narrative, I came across this insightful piece from someone who used to work for the European Union.

It paints quite a picture...


It was tough, working as a Brit in Brussels when UK interest was waning - the guardian

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  #347 (permalink)
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WSJ is using an interesting expression, there, when they say "steepest fall". I'm not questioning whether it's true, but according to their own chart, although it's had its steepest fall, it's still higher than it was at any point between the start of 2008 and the start of 2014, and it's clearly wording that chooses to conceal that, isn't it?

(It's one of things slightly similar to "fastest-growing" often being another way of saying "smallest".)

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  #348 (permalink)
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The Ugly Details of a Post-Brexit U.K.

More doom and gloom press, this time courtesy of a hedge fund guy writing on Barron's

Couple of highlights


Quoting 
The City of London currently is the dominant financial center for euro-denominated markets. An open question that will hurt the U.K. banking sector for an extended period concerns the uncertain future of London’s “passport” for doing business with the 27 other EU member countries. There is a significant threat that business will move from the City to Frankfurt, Paris, or Dublin.

Particular attention is being given to whether euro clearing can remain centered in London. France’s president, François Hollande, is calling for euro clearing to be conducted outside of London. That would have a serious impact on the City as it could lose an estimated 69% of its interest rate derivatives market. Of course, London continues to have the important advantages of the English language and English law.

and


Quoting 
We think a recession in the U.K.’s economy is highly probable. While second-quarter GDP growth is likely to look surprisingly strong at 0.6%, that figure can be attributed mainly to strong growth in April. A significant slowdown looks all but inevitable for the second half as the repercussions of the referendum play out in the economy.

Whether the recession will be relatively moderate and short in duration or severe and lengthy is very difficult to judge given all the uncertainties, most importantly the U.K.’s future relationship in its many dimensions to Europe. There will eventually be light at the end of the Brexit tunnel. Unfortunately, reaching that light could take years. For the time being we are not taking any direct U.K. positions in our International Equity ETF Portfolios.


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The United States has ruled out a separate trade deal with UK if it leaves the European Union, in a major blow to Brexit campaigners.

President Obama’s most senior trade official said that America is “not in the market” for a free trade deal with Britain alone, and warned British firms could face crippling Chinese-style tariffs outside the EU.



Major blow for Brexit campaign as US rules out UK-only trade deal - Telegraph

.

Why re-hash old news. I believe that article was written in October last year (look at the date under the writer's name). So despite that, the voters still went ahead and voted out.

However, if the USA brings in trade barriers against the UK, then it will be reciprocated and there are no winners in a trade war. The same goes for the EU.


Last edited by mrmuggins; July 10th, 2016 at 12:37 AM.
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I enjoyed Ian McEwan's take on it, acerbic as ever:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/09/country-political-crisis-tories-prime-minister

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