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Brexit 101
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Brexit 101

  #321 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Media distortion - case in point

Case in point. How some media intentionally distort the facts to get that extra clickbait:

Theresa May warns future of EU citizens living in the UK is uncertain


And though Ms May said she wanted to “guarantee the position” for EU citizens currently living in the UK and British citizens living in EU countries, she admitted their future was up for negotiation.

“What's important is there will be a negotiation here as to how we deal with that issue of people who are already here and who have established life here and Brits who have established a life in other countries within the European Union.

“The position at the moment is as it has been, there's no change at the moment, but of course we have to factor that into negotiations.”


Now, it is plainly obvious in my mind that of course the UK and the EU will negotiate some right of stay for both EU citizens staying in the UK and for UK citizens staying in the EU. It's the common-sense approach. Suggesting a bilateral mass-deportation would be unthinkable.

But is the editor of the Independent (in this case) more worried they may alarm unnecessarily the average reader or more worried about getting click-related revenue?

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  #322 (permalink)
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@xplorer I agree that common sense and sensibility is the right way.
But, take a look at this: 'You're not laughing now, are you?' - BBC News
What do you think?

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  #323 (permalink)
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mattz View Post
@xplorer I agree that common sense and sensibility is the right way.
But, take a look at this: 'You're not laughing now, are you?' - BBC News
What do you think?

Hi matt

well, what do you want me to think?

I had watched that before. It's when I posted that Farage back in the EU parliament after the Brexit vote was practically oozing smug. But that's Nigel Farage for you.

I consider him as a cheap-shot politician. He will never have the finesse required to be really relevant in representing the UK at a significant level. Sure, his party got more seats at the last EU election and sure, some of the people that signs up to his agenda may have been grown to be Eurosceptic.

But the bottom line is, I believe he, like the BNP represents the minority of people who have a distorted view of the world.

Had he been leading the Leave campaign with no aid from the likes of Boris Johnson or Michael Gove, I'm sure the Leave vote would have lost.


Last edited by xplorer; July 3rd, 2016 at 12:07 PM.
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  #324 (permalink)
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xplorer View Post

Had he been leading the Leave campaign with no aid from the likes of Boris Johnson or Michael Gove, I'm sure the Leave vote would have lost.

Absolutely. Johnson and Gove provided respectability for the average voter who was concerned about immigration but without wanting to feel that they were voting for a UKIP campaign.

Really glad that Johnson will not be Prime Minister. Pleased also that Gove's campaign is floundering with the alternative Leave candidate option of Leadsom. With May and Leadsom likely to be the MP's chosen candidates to be put forward to the party membership it will be exciting to have a female Prime Minister again.

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  #325 (permalink)
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xplorer View Post
Hi matt

well, what do you want me to think?

I had watched that before. It's when I posted that Farage back in the EU parliament after the Brexit vote was practically oozing smug. But that's Nigel Farage for you.

I consider him as a cheap-shot politician. He will never have the finesse required to be really relevant in representing the UK at a significant level. Sure, his party got more seats at the last EU election and sure, some of the people that signs up to his agenda may have been grown to be Eurosceptic.

But the bottom line is, I believe he, like the BNP represents the minority of people who have a distorted view of the world.

Had he been leading the Leave campaign with no aid from the likes of Boris Johnson or Michael Gove, I'm sure the Leave vote would have lost.

I understand. My concern is that the EU countries via the ECB will impose rules that are purely driven by "vengeance" in lieu of this kind of behaviour. The EU passport allows lots of cooperation both strategic and legal and if this is cooperation stops there could be a serious outflow of capital out of London. Further, many US companies also run their European operations out of London, and they may leave to other countries secure their EU passport and operations (EU passport allows one set of procedures versus single procedures in each country).

This new environment may be an opportunity for trading due to volatility, but economically it is a different story.
To be honest, one directional volatility is hard to capitalize on as well because too many try to catch bottoms.

This reminds me of the Quebec referendum back in 95, where nothing was achieved and the province saw capital outflow in the Billions that went straight to Toronto's Bay Street.

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  #326 (permalink)
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mattz View Post
I understand. My concern is that the EU countries via the ECB will impose rules that are purely driven by "vengeance" in lieu of this kind of behaviour. The EU passport allows lots of cooperation both strategic and legal and if this is cooperation stops there could be a serious outflow of capital out of London. Further, many US companies also run their European operations out of London, and they may leave to other countries secure their EU passport and operations (EU passport allows one set of procedures versus single procedures in each country).

This new environment may be an opportunity for trading due to volatility, but economically it is a different story.
To be honest, one directional volatility is hard to capitalize on as well because too many try to catch bottoms.

This reminds me of the Quebec referendum back in 95, where nothing was achieved and the province saw capital outflow in the Billions that went straight to Toronto's Bay Street.

Matt Z
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I really hope the EU will be able to see past the emotional stage and get a good deal for all the parties, which won't be easy.

We'll see.

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  #327 (permalink)
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Nigel Farage resigns as Ukip leader after 'achieving political ambition' of Brexit

Nigel Farage is stepping down as leader of Ukip, saying he has done his bit for the cause of Britain leaving the EU.

Speaking at a press conference in Westminster, he said it was time to get his life back after successfully campaigning for the UK to vote for Brexit.

“During the the referendum I said I wanted my country back … now I want my life back,” Farage said on Monday.


Article on The Guardian

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  #328 (permalink)
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This whole thing has become farcical. It beggars belief that there was literally no plan set out from either side, particularly pro-brexiteers, as to what they may do if Britain voted to leave. The cowardice sums up politics and politicians in general, no wonder most people voted against the status-quo.

The issue now is, if everything that the vote to leave stood for turned out as a lie, all the politicians pushing it have stepped down and they have u-turned on key issues (payments given to EU being spent on NHS instead, control of immigration etc) then should the vote still stand?


On another note and relative to what I suggested last week, Osborne at least seems to be coming up with some plans to keep companies attracted to London and the UK https://next.ft.com/content/d5aedda0-412e-11e6-9b66-0712b3873ae1

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  #329 (permalink)
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Standard Life shuts property fund amid rush of Brexit withdrawals

I don't know if this is the first alarm bell of many or not, but I thought I'd post it here


Quoting 
Investors in Standard Life’s property funds have been told that they cannot withdraw their money, after the firm acted to stop a rush of withdrawals following the UK’s decision to leave the EU.

The firm halted trading on its Standard Life Investments UK Real Estate Fund and associated funds at midday on Monday, citing “exceptional market circumstances” for the decision. It said the suspension would remain in place until it is “practicable” to lift it, and that it would review the decision at least every 28 days.

Article in The Guardian

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xplorer View Post
I don't know if this is the first alarm bell of many or not, but I thought I'd post it here



Article in The Guardian

To add to this, Someone I know is selling their home in London and the day after the vote was approached by a buyer offering £300k below the asking price. They laughed at the offer.

Now, this is most likely a chancer who was looking for a panic seller and maybe looking to create fear through such a low offer hoping to come back and get a smaller discount. However we are due a correction in house prices anyway, as could be seen from the lack of demand in the nine elms area prior to the brexit ref, which begun to sell at discounts. Whether this spreads and we see a significant decline, I am doubtful.

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