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Brexit 101
Started:February 27th, 2016 (10:02 AM) by xplorer Views / Replies:14,761 / 470
Last Reply:December 3rd, 2016 (05:24 PM) Attachments:44

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Brexit 101

Old June 30th, 2016, 05:10 PM   #301 (permalink)
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Carney prepares for ‘economic post-traumatic stress’

The Bank of England is preparing to unleash another round of monetary stimulus as it battles to contain the economic fallout of The UK’s decision to leave EU.

In a stark warning to politicians, governor Mark Carney said a downturn was on its way and Britain was already suffering from “economic post-traumatic stress disorder”.

He said the central bank would take “whatever action is needed to support growth”, which probably included “some monetary policy easing” in the next few months, in an attempt to reassure the markets and the general public.

Full article on Financial Times

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Old June 30th, 2016, 05:17 PM   #302 (permalink)
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Brexit vote leads S&P to cut European Union credit rating

S&P said the cut from AA+ to AA came after reassessment "of cohesion within the EU, which we now consider to be a neutral rather than positive".

The UK's Brexit vote had triggered "greater uncertainty" over long term economic and financial planning.

On Monday, S&P cut the UK's top AAA credit rating, saying Brexit could hit the economy and financial sector.

S&P said the change to its EU rating was because the previous assessment was based on all 28 states remaining in the bloc.

On BBC News

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Old June 30th, 2016, 09:04 PM   #303 (permalink)
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I'm not a UK citizen, so it really doesn't matter what I think about the vote.

However, I think like most elections, the majority voted with less than the full facts and understanding of what they were doing.

The EU & the EURO seem to be doomed in it's present incarnation. The best possible outcome of this whole situation is that it goes back to a cooperative trading bloc, without the bureaucracy of the non-trade related EU edicts and over reach.

Expecting all the nations to get along under one set of rules when the cultures are in many cases are completely at odds with each other is crazy.

The Greeks are going to default soon. Anyone surprised about that probably outcome?

The weak links in the EU are always going to be on the short end. They need to scrap the EURO so they can devalue their currencies and get back to some semblance of normal for their nations.

A trade block would help them all while they rebuild and get their national houses in order. Once that is done, maybe they can work on integration from a position of strength for all of them.

Hopefully cooler heads prevail. The Germans and French want to punish the UK so bad, but that will only screw themselves.


Leave you with a funny sign a friend of mine saw in London this week.

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Old June 30th, 2016, 09:06 PM   #304 (permalink)
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Wanted to do this earlier but was on vacation, but am now back.


xplorer View Post
Some more infographics

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CobblersAwls View Post
Something I found surprising and actually quite saddening was statistics that were released showing voter turnout % for different age-groups. A lot of blame has been placed on 'racist old people' and 'the old ruining the lives of the young' yet it seems that it was our own age group that let ourselves down. Perhaps ignorance or just taking the right to vote for granted, the young who are now upset will learn a very important lesson in utilising your democratic right to vote.

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So there was a 98% correlation between % Turnout and % Leave.
Conclusion, Brexit happened because the people who wanted out, bothered to vote and the under 35's didn't!
Of course this assumes the 'infographics' are correct.

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Old July 1st, 2016, 02:05 AM   #305 (permalink)
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Old July 1st, 2016, 02:22 AM   #306 (permalink)
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As traders, let us not forget that it was the British who invented free trade. They will do just fine cutting trade deals with individual countries without being dictated to by an overhead bureaucracy that has non-trade related political agendas.

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Old July 1st, 2016, 05:00 AM   #307 (permalink)
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jodistrict View Post
As traders, let us not forget that it was the British who invented free trade. They will do just fine cutting trade deals with individual countries without being dictated to by an overhead bureaucracy that has non-trade related political agendas.

Sure but, I think more than 50% of their exports are with the EU, and they won´t get access to that market for free.

And of course there are problems with the overhead bureaucray of the EU. But replacing the EU treaties with myriads of bilateral treaties won´t increase the wealth of nations on a global scale [ due to currency wars, beggar thy neighbour policies, frictions etc...)

Finally and most importantly imho, let us not forget where all this nationalism led to here in Europe.....


Last edited by Tellur; July 1st, 2016 at 05:16 AM.
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Old July 1st, 2016, 07:55 AM   #308 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Wanted to do this earlier but was on vacation, but am now back.

So there was a 98% correlation between % Turnout and % Leave.
Conclusion, Brexit happened because the people who wanted out, bothered to vote and the under 35's didn't!
Of course this assumes the 'infographics' are correct.

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Thanks for the insightful graph SMCJB - As you say, this assumes the underlying data is correct and of course that source data is based on sample data themselves.

Another thing I wonder: 36% of 18-24 means that, out of the population of eligible voters in the age group 18-24 only 36% voted. But aren't we missing something, i.e. how big that population is?

I'm going to an extreme hypothetical to illustrate my point: let's say we only had 500,000 people eligible to vote between 18-24, versus 5,000,000 aged 65+.

If that were true, that would have an impact on the results, wouldn't it?

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Old July 1st, 2016, 08:04 AM   #309 (permalink)
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xplorer View Post
If that were true, that would have an impact on the results, wouldn't it?

Agreed.

This implies that the age groups are pretty even though...

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source: IndexMundi - Country Facts

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Old July 1st, 2016, 08:20 AM   #310 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Agreed.

This implies that the age groups are pretty even though...

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source: IndexMundi - Country Facts

Thanks - In hindsight I could have googled that myself, couldn't I - Doh

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