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Brexit 101

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  #201 (permalink)
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xplorer View Post
I was in Italy for a holiday a week ago and the distrust for the way immigration is being handled is palbable over there. I bet if they had a chance at a referendum most people there would vote for an 'out' too.


That's certainly what their opinion polls say, and the same is true in a few other EU countries, too - a fact which it's gradually getting harder for the EU machine to ignore.



sam028 View Post
That will be interesting to see the next steps: independence for Scotland, unified Ireland?


I think we're a long way from another Scottish independence referendum, Sam. Many years, at least. One can sympathise with their being led out of the EU contrary to their wishes, of course (the Scottish vote was clearly and unambiguously in favour of "Remain"), but even the Scottish Nationalists have been saying that they won't call for another referendum until they're certain they can win it, and with the price of oil as it is, that could be a very long way away? [It's also perhaps possible that the next referendum there could be "advisory only" rather than legally binding in its outcome like the 2015 one was - in which case a future UK government can always ignore it completely just like the Spanish government ignored the recent Catalan/Barcelona independence referendum?]

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Bank of England's Governor Mark Carney address post-Brexit


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My actual response.


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Rory View Post
My actual response.

It's a funny pic that underlines a real issue for many.

Of course on Day 1 of Brexit there are a lot of people worried about the knee-jerk reaction that this referendum has caused. I think this effect is likely to last for some time.

But to understand and study the true effects that the pro-Brexit side campaigned about, I think we need to look at the longer term, which should be measured in years, as a minimum.

Again, not suggesting the UK will be 100% better off or 100% worse off. I think there will be either a net benefit or net deficiency, once all trade-off will be factored in.

But, as I said, I think it will take time.

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xplorer View Post
It's a funny pic that underlines a real issue for many.

Of course on Day 1 of Brexit there are a lot of people worried about the knee-jerk reaction that this referendum has caused. I think this effect is likely to last for some time.

But to understand and study the true effects that the pro-Brexit side campaigned about, I think we need to look at the longer term, which should be measured in years, as a minimum.

Again, not suggesting the UK will be 100% better off or 100% worse off. I think there will be either a net benefit or net deficiency, once all trade-off will be factored in.

But, as I said, I think it will take time.

Si.


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xplorer View Post
It's a funny pic that underlines a real issue for many.

Of course on Day 1 of Brexit there are a lot of people worried about the knee-jerk reaction that this referendum has caused. I think this effect is likely to last for some time.

But to understand and study the true effects that the pro-Brexit side campaigned about, I think we need to look at the longer term, which should be measured in years, as a minimum.

Again, not suggesting the UK will be 100% better off or 100% worse off. I think there will be either a net benefit or net deficiency, once all trade-off will be factored in.

But, as I said, I think it will take time.

I totally agree - it will take some time. One of the economic points that Leave supporters argue is that the UK as a member of the EU is barred from forming any formal trade agreements with the rest of the world. The fastest growing economic regions of the world are all outside the EU zone. The UK has the 5th largest economy in the world. Doorways to new trade opportunities will be opened and trading ties across europe will not suddenly disappear. Yesterday the head of the German trade industry group was calling for close trading ties to continue with the UK, whatever the result - because the UK represents a major export market for the EU (the second largest as I understand it - though I could be wrong).

We have to let the dust settle and the scare stories dissipate...

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Rory View Post
My actual response.


LOL. I can relate to both sides - it certainly hit my total wealth but I'm happy to see the people reject an anti-democratic institution. Before they started counting the votes yesterday a top EU legal representative was calling for a ban on any further national referenda...I think they assumed they'd win this one and then kill off any other miserable protests by the masses...

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SMCJB View Post
I recently went from England-France-Switzerland-Italy-England and was very surprised the only place I needed my passport was leaving and entering England even though Switzerland is outside the EU.

Switzerland is a member of the Schengen area - the UK isn't.

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bebop View Post
LOL. I can relate to both sides - it certainly hit my total wealth but I'm happy to see the people reject an anti-democratic institution. Before they started counting the votes yesterday a top EU legal representative was calling for a ban on any further national referenda...I think they assumed they'd win this one and then kill off any other miserable protests by the masses...

I dunno.. I would not normally say this but I'm a lot smarter than most people (and I'm not that smart, see Carlin below). I judge this by how much in demand my time was in work and often being told so by people who meet me. I had no trouble learning to trade, created my own methods quickly and if the measure of "if your so smart, why ain't ya rich?" means anything.. well I am at least say quite clever?

The sole reason I post anything here is it helps with the cabin fever as I don't speak much Spanish yet and to date have been busy trading 15+ hours a day.

Ok, smallest violin in the world bit..

All my life normal but confused people, whom I have always treated with patience, kindness and respect came to me with broken things & sometimes lives (I do a lot of charity work) asking me to fix them. Which I nearly always did. If anyone had asked me before I moved here what I did in say my I.T. career I would say 'I fix broken things! ' Though the reality a tad more complex..

The one time I ask my few friends back home in Wiltshire to trust me and having never asked them for anything? I feel disgusted today.

I'll do my part in what comes next, like a good burro

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xplorer View Post
...and it's getting madder



Full article

O'Malley says its a world city and that it has to remain at the heart of europe. Of course its a world city - it doesn't cease to be by no longer being a member of the EU - and the argument has never been to stay in europe or not (it would take some serious tectonic plate shifts for that to be a question at all!) - the issue is/was whether to remain in the EU - and there's a significant difference. When Austria, Poland or the Netherlands call for a referendum - will they also twist it and say its a vote on whether to stay in europe? Is Switzerland not in europe?

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Two interesting articles on Brexit:

Brexit isn?t about economics. It?s about xenophobia. - Vox

Brexit: Why The U.K. Left the European Union - The Atlantic

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War... F&^% the System. That is why they voted to leave.

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tturner86 View Post
Some of my friends on FB are calling for Texit... (Texas Exit)... #comeandtakeit

Texit: Sorry Texas, the Brexit is not about you | SanDiegoUnionTribune.com

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Just like San Diego to try and dampen a Texan's excitement.

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Rory View Post
I dunno.. I would not normally say this but I'm a lot smarter than most people (and I'm not that smart, see Carlin below). I judge this by how much in demand my time was in work and often being told so by people who meet me. I had no trouble learning to trade, created my own methods quickly and if the measure of "if your so smart, why ain't ya rich?" means anything.. well I am at least say quite clever?

The sole reason I post anything here is it helps with the cabin fever as I don't speak much Spanish yet and to date have been busy trading 15+ hours a day.

Ok, smallest violin in the world bit..

All my life normal but confused people, whom I have always treated with patience, kindness and respect came to me with broken things & sometimes lives (I do a lot of charity work) asking me to fix them. Which I nearly always did. If anyone had asked me before I moved here what I did in say my I.T. career I would say 'I fix broken things! ' Though the reality a tad more complex..

The one time I ask my few friends back home in Wiltshire to trust me and having never asked them for anything? I feel disgusted today.

I'll do my part in what comes next, like a good burro

Rory, what you seem to be saying is that you're smarter than most including your friends in the UK and you advised them to vote Remain for their and presumably your own best economic interests, and now you're upset and disgusted because the vote went the other way and MTM less than 24 hours later - you've lost net asset value and see a bleak future...?

I totally understand and I'm not trying to be harsh but those are exactly the arguments that the elite (political and otherwise), including the power structure of the EU commision and legal system, use to justify the erosion and eventual complete eradication of all semblance of democracy. They say - oh you don't need to bother with that - just leave it to us. Oh and - you don't have any say in it whatsoever. If they all truly had our best interests at heart that may be ok, but even then it would still leave the door open to future abuses. But the evidence of fraud, corruption and far worse is significant. I know you took a hit - me too. Everyone with any unhedged assets in stirling took a hit. I've had big losses over the years - anyone who's been in this game long enough has. Markets bounce back - granted this one will probably take some time.

But I'd urge you not to feel disgusted about this. Your friends and many others expressed their voice through a vote to reject an anti-democratic political and legal system.

On a completely separate note - and I'm saying this through genuine concern - it isn't too smart to trade for 15+ hours a day. I spent a number of years doing precisely that both for myself and for institutions and it can be a quick step to depression and disillusion.

Things will look better when the dust settles.

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tturner86 View Post
Just like San Diego to try and dampen a Texan's excitement.

I don't know, "Republic of Texas" sounds pretty cool to me.

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Londoners call for capital to break away from the rest of Britain following Brexit vote - Mirror Online

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World?s 400 Richest People Lose $127 Billion on Brexit: Chart - Bloomberg

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"The British are frantically Googling what the E.U. is, hours after voting to leave it"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/24/the-british-are-frantically-googling-what-the-eu-is-hours-after-voting-to-leave-it/

and on that note, have a good weekend everyone!

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It's extremely poor journalism to use the drunken comments of a guy in a bar and then leap to the assertion that the entire Leave campaign is xenophobic. What utter crap. This isn't serious journalism.

Here's a review of a cross section of both sides views on social media from the London School of Economics:
BREXIT ? An undiscover?d country: the Brexit debate on Twitter reveals widespread democratic discontent

It does indeed show that migration concerns are a serious issue for both sides in the campaign. It also shows that a core issue is disatisfaction with dysfunctional democracy.

Quote:
...I want to find out more than just the big picture. I am interested in the particularities of identity contestation involved in the Twitter Brexit debate. I want to know what Brexit tweets tell us about the beliefs and values that drive British and European politics today. And my preliminary findings are showing some interesting trends.

Firstly, democracy is emerging as a core value that cuts across both camps. Both Leave and Remain tweets share a perception of growing democratic deficit and a desire for greater democratic accountability. There is a widespread belief that political elites are not representative, political parties are out of touch with voters, and the media cannot be trusted.
End Quote.


On the question of immigration, its perfectly possible and acceptable to have a debate about it - and this was certainly one of the main issues - without calling everyone xenophobic if they don't agree with the current policy. This is not to say that there aren't people who hold the views of the "Bob" character mentioned in the trash piece article, but to smear half of the UK as xenophobes is wrong, distasteful and frankly outrageous.

Net migration into the UK last year according to the governments official figures stood at 330k. The unofficial figures (which historically have proved extremely accurate in follow up censuses and many experts agree with) collated from net births and deaths together with applications for new social security numbers puts the figure at over 600k. A legitimate debate about this policy seems perfectly reasonable without the typical name calling and muck slinging.

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mattz View Post
"The British are frantically Googling what the E.U. is, hours after voting to leave it"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/24/the-british-are-frantically-googling-what-the-eu-is-hours-after-voting-to-leave-it/

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The writer of the article doesn't bother to consider the possibility that a lot of those searches may actually come from people who voted Remain - and were told continuously that Leave wouldn't happen...No, no - far easier to trash the brits as stupid...

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bebop View Post
It's extremely poor journalism to use the drunken comments of a guy in a bar and then leap to the assertion that the entire Leave campaign is xenophobic. What utter crap. This isn't serious journalism.

Here's a review of a cross section of both sides views on social media from the London School of Economics:
BREXIT ? An undiscover?d country: the Brexit debate on Twitter reveals widespread democratic discontent

It does indeed show that migration concerns are a serious issue for both sides in the campaign. It also shows that a core issue is disatisfaction with dysfunctional democracy.

Quote:
...I want to find out more than just the big picture. I am interested in the particularities of identity contestation involved in the Twitter Brexit debate. I want to know what Brexit tweets tell us about the beliefs and values that drive British and European politics today. And my preliminary findings are showing some interesting trends.

Firstly, democracy is emerging as a core value that cuts across both camps. Both Leave and Remain tweets share a perception of growing democratic deficit and a desire for greater democratic accountability. There is a widespread belief that political elites are not representative, political parties are out of touch with voters, and the media cannot be trusted.
End Quote.


On the question of immigration, its perfectly possible and acceptable to have a debate about it - and this was certainly one of the main issues - without calling everyone xenophobic if they don't agree with the current policy. This is not to say that there aren't people who hold the views of the "Bob" character mentioned in the trash piece article, but to smear half of the UK as xenophobes is wrong, distasteful and frankly outrageous.

Net migration into the UK last year according to the governments official figures stood at 330k. The unofficial figures (which historically have proved extremely accurate in follow up censuses and many experts agree with) collated from net births and deaths together with applications for new social security numbers puts the figure at over 600k. A legitimate debate about this policy seems perfectly reasonable without the typical name calling and muck slinging.

I actually agree with you on the immigration issue. People do not have a natural right to come and settle in anyone else's country, and if a country allows immigrants, the people of that country should be allowed to set the terms or at least have a say. If people feel their 'way of life' is threatened, they have a legitimate reason to be concerned, and it is unfair to paint all of them with a broad 'xenophobic' brush.

My guess is, without the immigration issue, which I think was greatly exacerbated by Merkel's actions, there would still have been an anti-EU contingent in Britain, but I don't think on its own it would have been strong enough to win.

I am neither for or against this result as I don't live there and don't feel I can really judge. But it is hard to go against the will of the people. If they are wrong, they will suffer the most, and if they are right, they will benefit the most. For better or worse, the British people will ultimately be accountable for this vote, and that seems to be the best scenario one can ask for.

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bebop View Post
The writer of the article doesn't bother to consider the possibility that a lot of those searches may actually come from people who voted Remain - and were told continuously that Leave wouldn't happen...No, no - far easier to trash the brits as stupid...

I suggest that you that you take your decibels on this argument a little lower and stop working yourself up.
We are just exchanging links here and ideas on a friendly basis!!

No one called anyone "stupid" and whether it came from the "remain" or "exit" is irrelevant! The point was that people are searching for things post a fact they decided on. More than anything, I thought it was funny as human nature.
It is a known fact that people worldwide may vote on things they do not understand the full implications of.

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mattz View Post
I suggest that you that you take your decibels on this argument a little lower and stop working yourself up.
We are just exchanging links here and ideas on a friendly basis!!

No one called anyone "stupid" and whether it came from the "remain" or "exit" is irrelevant! The point was that people are searching for things post a fact they decided on. More than anything, I thought it was funny as human nature.
It is a known fact that people worldwide may vote on things they do not understand the full implications of.

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Certainly not worked up here Matt. Quite the opposite. If you re-read what I said - its a reference to the writer of the article, not you (unless you wrote it ). As an exchange of ideas on a friendly basis - I wrote my opinion of what I consider to be poor journalism.

Paraphrasing the first paragraph...
"...whole world is reeling..."
"...leave campaign leaders are crowing..."
"...yet the people who voted don't know what they voted for..."

that's basically saying the whole world has suffered thanks to some smug b&ggers and the people who haven't got a clue what they're doing. Like I said - without considering the alternative possibilities for the increase in google searches - that's pretty trashy.

You may be misinterpreting the decibel levels - I'm not British - grew up in a hardcore Irish republican area - so if you know anything about the history there - you'll know I'm not saying this because i feel attacked. No - its because I was also an investigative documentary maker in a previous life and I really hate to see lazy trashy journalism. It has a very subtle, cumulative subliminal effect on people's perceptions. Its a little different when its comedy - but this isn't presented as such.

Enjoy your weekend

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bebop View Post
Certainly not worked up here Matt. Quite the opposite. If you re-read what I said - its a reference to the writer of the article, not you (unless you wrote it ). As an exchange of ideas on a friendly basis - I wrote my opinion of what I consider to be poor journalism.

....I was also an investigative documentary maker in a previous life and I really hate to see lazy trashy journalism. It has a very subtle, cumulative subliminal effect on people's perceptions. Its a little different when its comedy - but this isn't presented as such.

Enjoy your weekend

Thanks! Understood. After so many years in the financial business, I don't take most article seriously.
Google changed journalism because most just want to get indexed ASAP to get higher page views in order to sell ads.
They are also written in a fashion where they evoke serious emotions and create arguments about them, and again this creates higher pages views. Sometimes I am (admittedly) sensitive to comments.
I appreciate your background, knowledge and explaining where you come from.

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I think The City has fallen victim to EU-propaganda and their own group-think.

Grow some balls City !

The financial center London will drive outside the EU.
Of course the EUDSSR comrades in Brussels will attempt some punishment and revenge against UK.
As some of you have reported here - they already started.

How can anyone sympathize with an institution that acts this way ?

But they will fail.

I will hide behind this wonderful macro analysis by Peter Zeihan from today.
He brings my/his arguments better across than I could - in better English and with less cynicism:


Quoting 
Brexit

With 28 countries it is easy to get lost in the geopolitical maelstrom that is the European Union. Over the next few days (and couple of years) there will be literally thousands of stories to tell about the Britain-EU breakup. All will matter hugely to someone, but only a few will matter hugely to everyone. So let’s focus on the major points.

The United States is withdrawing from the world. The United States created and maintained the global free trade order. Without the United States’ smothering security presence, much of the world either will devolve as local powers fight for the scraps or return to their pre-1945 state of affairs. In Europe it will be a bit of both. One outcome among many is that the geopolitical environment of enforced peace and open trade that enabled the Europeans to form the EU in the first place is disappearing. For reasons well beyond the Europeans’ control, the EU is ending.

And for reasons well within the Europeans’ control, the EU is ending. If there is anything that the European Union has shown us in the past decade, it is that even in the face of an existential crisis its constituent members cannot come up with a common plan, much less a common vision. The European financial crisis -- complete with the Greek crisis -- began in 2006 and slides further down the rabbit hole with every passing year. The continent has suffered five recessions since this all started with most of its members now possessing smaller economies than before the Great Recession.

Europe is also dying for reasons independent of geopolitics and policy. All but six of its 27 members (the UK is one of the six) have already aged past any hope of demographic recovery. Germany -- the country the EU seems to be pinning its hopes on -- has the world’s most distorted population structure, with more people in their 50s than 40s than 30s than 20s than teenagers than children. Which means that all three forms of economic growth -- consumption, investment and export -- are about to prove beyond them. In essence, Europe’s aging is transforming it into a collection of old folks’ homes.
It isn’t hard to make the case that the UK jumping ship might not be all that bad of an idea.

So what happens next?
  • The Brits will need a replacement trade association. There are two options. The easier of the two is a broad scale reinvigoration of the Commonwealth which will give the UK greater access to its old empire with countries large and small, near and far. The second is both simpler and more complicated: joining NAFTA. Simple in that the Canadians will make Brentrance a cause célèbre but complicated in that the Americans will make the Brits pay through the nose (think Lend-Lease). The Brits will ultimately succeed at both. Expect the Brits to be the only country in the world with a meaningful trade deal with India, and expect all the former British colonies that trade with the EU to shift loyalties.
  • The EU leadership will want to hurt the UK, and hurt it badly, in order to dissuade others from following suit. In this they will fail. As the UK demonstrates that the EU isn’t inevitable a number of countries will see their own political systems reorder to the new reality. In particular, I’d keep my eye on Hungary (whose political system is departing from democracy and so just doesn’t fit in the club any longer), France (who feels the whole European project has gotten away from them), and Sweden (who only joined the EU because a united Europe served as a hedge against Russia).
  • The UK was the one big country constantly pushing for the EU to expand and liberalize. Without London’s influence the EU’s slide towards parochialism, protectionism and a Fortress Europe mentality will harden. No more expansions. No more common foreign policy. No more Airbus.
  • Expect the broad scale weakening of the European financial sector. Most of the EU’s financial business is settled in London and undoubtedly some of that will now relocate to the Continent. But most -- to the EU leadership’s chagrin -- will not. This will induce the EU to attempt to force its relocation using regulatory means. Considering that capital flight from the eurozone is already at record highs, expect such regulatory efforts to backfire. Horribly

source: https://us11.campaign-archive.com/?u=de2bc41f8324e6955ef65e0c9&id=342d6b45f1
(highlights mine)

Peter Zeihan was wing-man of half-god and greatest contemporary thinker George Friedman (My title ). But they divorced recently.

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you are certainly all aware of what is called the "bank passport". The bank passport is a EU regulation that state that any bank that has its head office in a EU country can do business in all the EU. This regulation plus a very favorable tax system was the major reason that have made UK the financial center of Europe.

By exiting the EU this point will be the main discussion point. It will have a major impact on UK economy and will raise a lot of concern also in the rest of the EU. A lot of other countries would be more than happy to see all those head offices coming to them.

It represent 2M jobs and all highest salaries of UK. Of course not all of them are in danger but the most important one are.

Concerning the exportation I don't think it will represent a major issue, UK is at 80% an economy of service and maybe a few car manufacturers will relocate in to EU countries and especially to the one will the cheap labor in Eastern Europe.

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Okina View Post
you are certainly all aware of what is called the "bank passport". The bank passport is a EU regulation that state that any bank that has its head office in a EU country can do business in all the EU. This regulation plus a very favorable tax system was the major reason that have made UK the financial center of Europe.

By exiting the EU this point will be the main discussion point. It will have a major impact on UK economy and will raise a lot of concern also in the rest of the EU. A lot of other countries would be more than happy to see all those head offices coming to them.

London is the major/a major financial center for more than 200 years.
EU's business is done in London because of that - not the other way around.

As the comment above explains, the EU-Gutmenschen will attempt to force their will onto UK with regulations like this.
But money will move out of EU and people vote with their feet.

It is hubris that creates an argument like this. They think they can force their vision into existence.
But they fail to understand that there are dynamics and trends that are above their control.

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puma View Post
London is the major/a major financial center for more than 200 years.
EU's business is done in London because of that - not the other way around.

As the comment above explains, the EU-Gutmenschen will attempt to force their will onto UK with regulations like this.
But money will move out of EU and people vote with their feet.

I try to speak about fact and regulation not politic or propaganda....

I am retired but believe me I would be very concerned to be a trader in London today.

This is my last post here I have the feeling of speaking gun regulation with a Texan or abortion with a priest

I made a ton of money with the exit and it will certainly offer a lot of other very nice opportunities. But instead of defending our own feeling (and for most of what I read they are in most case naive or completely deformed by political bias) I think that the debate on a trading forum could/should be over financial implications of this vote and not on bashing pro or anti EU.

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Okina View Post
I try to speak about fact and regulation not politic or propaganda....

I am retired but believe me I would be very concerned to be a trader in London today.

well Brussels does politics via regulations. That is their essence.

They are shocked and shaken again and again by any sort of "democratic uprising"
  • Irish EU vote - shocked
  • France vote on EU constitution - shocked
  • Brexit vote - shocked
  • Greece vote on EU - forced down.

a brief view into Brussel's mindset:
  • Why won't these pesky citizen in Europe understand ?
  • We will force and regulate Europe into existence.
  • Europe is not based on citizen will, but on our vision of heaven.

In my mind the people in Brussels are very dangerous men.

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Okina View Post
I think that the debate on a trading forum could/should be over financial implications of this vote and not on bashing pro or anti EU.

You can not divide financial implications from the geopolitical topic.

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The good news is...you have a bright future in political comedy. As for real politics, not so much...

Just about everything you claim above to be true is an unsubstantiated conspiracy theory or gross distortion of the truth and the idea that none of it is disputed by the media is absurd.

I cannot argue about the merits of Brexit, but if you are so wrong on the above points, I can only assume...

@srgtroy I haven't said anything personal about you so can we reel-in the sarcasm levels - I'm only presenting facts. If you disagree with them - that's fine...
I'm sorry - I know this is off-topic and I won't comment on this again here - you can start another thread if you like and we can discuss this further. I'd do that myself - but I'm unclear about the mechanism...

Here's the links to the US Defense Intelligence Agencies own documents from 2011 and 2012 showing that the Obama admin knew that weapons were being shipped from Benghazi to rebel troops in Syria in their strategy to overthrow the Assad regime, and knew these rebels were islamic jihadists.

JW: Obama Admin Knew About Benghazi Before It Happened

together with an interview with General Micheal T Flynn (head of the DIA) stating that Obama's administration made the "willful decision" to back the islamic jihadists in Syria (knowing that there are/were no "moderate" rebels)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SG3j8OYKgn4
the transcript:
Transcript: Michael Flynn on ISIL - Al Jazeera English

together with 2 separate Pullitzer-prize winning investigative journalists (neither of whom I have particular afinity with their political views, but nevertheless their journalistic resumes are outstanding) reports on the conflict both historically and more recently, and the US role in it - confirming what I said.

https://consortiumnews.com/2015/12/12/blocking-democracy-as-syrias-solution/
The Redirection - The New Yorker

I hope you find them enlightening/interesting....
Peace.

Now - - I promise!

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something else:

I read through the last 3-4 pages and found the diverse arguments quite interesting.

One easily forgets about an opposing view after having formed your own opinion.

Also puma's Law of mediocrity applies :

A similar discussion like we have here about "Brexit and what now" - is undergone all over the world now.

Probably fuel for uncertainty and hence volatility in the markets.
(this was mentioned before)

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Interesting stats from the WSJ:

Seldom has the United Kingdom looked less united: London and Scotland voted to stay in the EU, Wales and the English shires voted to get out. (Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has already called a fresh vote on secession “highly likely.”) Some 70% of university graduates were in favor of the EU; an equally disproportionate 68% of those who hadn’t finished high school were against it. Londoners and those under age 30 were strongly for Remain; the northern English and those over 60 were strongly for Leave. An astonishing 70% of the skilled working class supported Brexit.

Brexit: A Very British Revolution - WSJ

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Not that surprised to be honest.

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mattz View Post
Thanks! Understood. After so many years in the financial business, I don't take most article seriously.
Google changed journalism because most just want to get indexed ASAP to get higher page views in order to sell ads.
They are also written in a fashion where they evoke serious emotions and create arguments about them, and again this creates higher pages views.

Yes unfortunately the news business is now about selling advertising rather than the news itself.

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I think it's worth leaving this here, courtesy of the BBC....


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Okina View Post
you are certainly all aware of what is called the "bank passport". The bank passport is a EU regulation that state that any bank that has its head office in a EU country can do business in all the EU. This regulation plus a very favorable tax system was the major reason that have made UK the financial center of Europe.

London was the financial center of Europe before the EU even existed.

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SMCJB View Post
I recently went from England-France-Switzerland-Italy-England and was very surprised the only place I needed my passport was leaving and entering England even though Switzerland is outside the EU.


bebop View Post
Switzerland is a member of the Schengen area - the UK isn't.

Id just found it interesting that I don't have a European Passport and nobody in Europe other than English cared where I was or where I was going. I understand the borderless advantages to Euro's but surprised it's borderless for everybody not just Europeans.

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srgtroy View Post
Some 70% of university graduates were in favor of the EU


This is a slightly "artificial" statistic, to be interpreted carefully.

While technically true, it also conceals several significant pieces of information about universities, degrees and education in general, which collectively mean that all it really shows is that younger people are far more in favour of "Remain" than older people. (There are far more young people going to university these days; there are far more institutions now classified as "universities" than ever before; far more post-school educational and vocational qualifications are now classified as "degrees"; and so on.)

It doesn't necessarily imply (as some might at first - understandably but mistakenly - imagine) that "better educated people are more pro-EU".

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Some more infographics


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The infographic above came from this Bloomberg article by the way


Quoting 
Campaigners to get Britain out of the European Union won their shock victory by building an alliance of older and less-educated voters angry about the way globalization has changed their lives. Now they’re telling people they won’t get what they want.

Vote Leave explicitly targeted people concerned about immigration, warning them that millions of Turks were on their way to Britain. The morning after they won Boris Johnson, their leading spokesman and the favorite to succeed David Cameron as prime minister, began backing away from that message.


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Rory, what you seem to be saying is that you're smarter than most including your friends in the UK and you advised them to vote Remain for their and presumably your own best economic interests, and now you're upset and disgusted because the vote went the other way and MTM less than 24 hours later - you've lost net asset value and see a bleak future...?

I totally understand and I'm not trying to be harsh but those are exactly the arguments that the elite (political and otherwise), including the power structure of the EU commision and legal system, use to justify the erosion and eventual complete eradication of all semblance of democracy. They say - oh you don't need to bother with that - just leave it to us. Oh and - you don't have any say in it whatsoever. If they all truly had our best interests at heart that may be ok, but even then it would still leave the door open to future abuses. But the evidence of fraud, corruption and far worse is significant. I know you took a hit - me too. Everyone with any unhedged assets in stirling took a hit. I've had big losses over the years - anyone who's been in this game long enough has. Markets bounce back - granted this one will probably take some time.

But I'd urge you not to feel disgusted about this. Your friends and many others expressed their voice through a vote to reject an anti-democratic political and legal system.

On a completely separate note - and I'm saying this through genuine concern - it isn't too smart to trade for 15+ hours a day. I spent a number of years doing precisely that both for myself and for institutions and it can be a quick step to depression and disillusion.

Things will look better when the dust settles.

There is no point in getting to a tit-for-tat, we all just get older and not wiser discussion and we know that. As Mandela is quoted for, the more informed you are the less arrogant and aggressive you are. yadda yadda.

Your point of concern on not pushing it is noted and thank you but its fine. I had a slight burn out in my early 20s when the PTSD fairy caught up with me a year after weeks spent pulling some friends out of Rwanda in 1994. This experience does make me deeply appreciate the reason the EEC originated in the first place of course and I know more about the sharp-end of elite manipulation than you might imagine from this.

Since then I know to take care. I've only ever needed 2-4 hours plus a Saturday morning crash. My mammy was the same so I have more leisure hours than it would seem.

My net asset value is fine and future is not bleak. My only bleakness is when my girlfriend cooks boring arepa for breakfast.

I'm a trader like you, and I'm sure we have both already and will continue to make a killing on Brexit. Inspirational and tasteless "Inglorious Basterds scalper" pic

I did my research in person (no important opinion should be formed via the Inter-vine) speaking with two senior European "un-elected elites" I happen to have access to plus a couple of Brussels EU lawyers and a translator friend. Its surprising how people want to catch up when they hear you up and moved to South America

Again, your description of the EU on many points is irreconcilable with whats in my head. I refer you to the cat pushing a watermelon out of the lake. Were not going to agree.

I was a UK resident but ROI bread and the various Daves, Steves, Pauls, Sandys, Karens I know have indeed made their decision. So all my O-level educated market town & farm friends did the opposite of my heartfelt recommendation. That is a bit strange for me but I'm not doing the 'A few good men' speech. Not much anyway.

I asked and to a one they put the paper in the box on a "feeling" when almost all of their facts were wrong or grossly distorted and worse they even sort of knew this?

That "feeling" brought to them not exclusively but too significantly via fMRI influenced campaigning on the Leave side is my own "feeling". Of course the cultivated old school psych skills of the Sun/Mail etc. also. Those elite and clever FOXs and their new toys.. (borderline connected elite Fox cartoon) but I believe we are seeing the power of a new(ish) political weapon. I have growing industry experience of this stuff.

I believe Brexit leave voters just went short in the same way a novice trader does, sure they are right this time. It may not kill the account but was a bad move and now we have to trade out. I could have done without the next couple of years living 'interesting times' as the Chinese would say. I have a different slant on democracy and defending the defenseless but that is even more off topic.

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Brexit vote sparks scramble for European passports | Politics | The Guardian

A very lazy friend works in the Dublin Passport office, he is going to hate this

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Over the last couple of days I put in the Jokes section a few Brexit-related pics, for those who need a pick-me-up

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Enjoying the discussion so far and learning a lot. One of the few observations I've made about the online trading community at large (beyond this site) is what I perceive to be a general denial that racism often plays an influential role in political and economic outcomes.

https://www.facebook.com/OccupyDemocrats/videos/1168910223202030/

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deltason View Post
Enjoying the discussion so far and learning a lot. One of the few observations I've made about the online trading community at large (beyond this site) is what I perceive to be a general denial that racism often plays an influential role in political and economic outcomes.

https://www.facebook.com/OccupyDemocrats/videos/1168910223202030/

Firstly, my advice is, never use social media to get facts. Sites like FB are very prone to manipulating posts to make them look like real news to the untrained eye.

Secondly, this specific FB page in particular is clearly serving some agenda of some sort
  • It's purporting to be some sort of official page because of the 'verified' symbol next to its name: the symbol is fake
  • It's purporting to report the news 'Straight from the horse's mouth', to make the statement look like it's official-sounding
  • It claims ' Listen to this British man brazenly admit that the reason he and millions of Brits voted to leave the European Union is ...'. The opinion of one man reflects the opinion of millions? Says who?
  • The video purports to be from Channel 4 News, just because someone overlaid a "Channel 4 News" banner on it. It's clearly not coming from Channel 4

I recommend news are collected from reputable channels. As I said FB or the like are way too prone to prey on the gullible.

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Interesting passage from a 19th June article by the NY Times


Quoting 
It is certain that Brexit would do gross damage to both Europe and America. For the United States, it would mean the failure of many years of diplomacy. Britain would become at once less useful as an ally and less predictable. Washington would turn increasingly from London to Berlin.

For Europe, Britain’s departure would be like a first brick pulled from a flimsy wall. The union is already fragile. Its mismanagement of the eurozone debt crisis after the 2008 crash was followed by its mismanagement of the refugee crisis. No wonder a recent Pew Research Center poll showed plummeting approval ratings for the union in key European countries.

British withdrawal isn’t likely to be followed instantly by that of other member states. But nationalist governments like those in Poland and Hungary, and others besides, will be encouraged to defy European rules from trade regulations to human rights, until the whole structure disintegrates. Disputes once soothed by multinational bargaining in Strasbourg or Brussels may grow toxic.

And earlier


Quoting 
A Leave victory in the referendum is expected to topple Prime Minister David Cameron, and replace him with a radically right-wing Conservative team, which the impetuous former mayor of London, Boris Johnson, is eager to lead. The new government would immediately have to face the problems of disengaging from Europe, and possibly from Scotland. Negotiating new treaties with European trading partners would take many years. And Germany is warning that Britain will no longer have access to the European Union’s single market.


That would knock the bottom out of the Leave campaign’s central promise: that Britain could have its cake and eat it, too — retaining full access to 500 million European customers while clamping controls on immigration from the union. Cynics predict that Britain will spend five years trying to get out, and the next five trying to get back in.

This last bit made me think: it's true that the Leave camp played the 'having the cake and eating it too' like a trombone. "Hey, we can keep trading with the EU and have all this other fantastic trade agreements" was one of their mottos.

But it just occurred to me that they may have counted their chickens before they're hatched. I don't believe the EU would stand for an ex-member state wanting to do business as usual, as if nothing happened with them. That would send a huge signal that staying in the EU is pointless. So I think they'll try and make the situation for Britain as tough as they can.

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Lots of discussion that even though the referendum passed that it might not get the needed support in Parliment to actually ever become reality

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SMCJB View Post
Lots of discussion that even though the referendum passed that it might not get the needed support in Parliment to actually ever become reality

It's a tough one - on one hand the petition for a 2nd referendum has gained huge momentum (nearly 3.2 M signatures at the time of writing and counting) and there are calls for the Parliament to by-pass the referendum. The only way I think this would even get a chance for serious consideration would be if the signatures exceed the number of people who voted for 'Remain'. Otherwise one should logically assume that it's really just all the people who voted to remain that are trying to get a second stab at it.

On the other hand, what signal would that send to the world about democracy in the UK?

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Scotland and Northern Ireland voted Remain in significant majority and can veto Brexit. Now Cameron is a lame duck for months, Corbyn of Labor was a weak leader, he's in trouble also. Gibraltar and I'm sure the Falkland's futures are uncertain (Argentina does not need this distraction right now with its hawks going 'squirrel!'). Its too much chaos.

The politics in the Northern Ireland has always been tribal (as opposed to partisan) and they can go straight back to sectarianism with a bullet. Fun fact, Northern Ireland has the highest ownership of baseball bats per-capita outside the US, but no baseball teams (they are great for rolling pastry and for knee-capping punishments).

Scotland could veto Brexit - Sturgeon - RTÉ News

"Scotland's parliament would consider blocking legislation on Britain's exit from the European Union if that were necessary to protect Scottish interests, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said.

Scotland, a nation of five million people, voted to stay in the EU by 62% to 38% in a referendum on Thursday, putting it at odds with the United Kingdom as a whole, which voted 52% to 48% in favour of an exit from the bloc, or Brexit.

Under the United Kingdom's complex arrangements to devolve some powers to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, legislation generated in London to give effect to the vote to leave the EU would have to gain consent from the three devolved parliaments.

Asked on BBC television whether she would consider asking the Scottish parliament to block a motion of legislative consent, Ms Sturgeon said: "Of course."
"

This is exactly many assessed with Boris Johnson, he wanted to be seen to run a good campaign, get seen & ready to challenge for leader in next conservative leadership challenge. Winning was not planned for.

Hopefully on the new site we can embed the time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERHfuzyic8M&feature=youtu.be&t=121

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At the end of the day I guess it's the trading opportunities that we should start to think about....there should be plenty accompanied by the usual vol....

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xiaosi View Post
At the end of the day I guess it's the trading opportunities that we should start to think about....there should be plenty accompanied by the usual vol....

Agreed but I think by implication this is talking about the trading opportunities as the projections of the pound dropping by as much as 20% are looking possible. Remember its more sensitive for people who are actually getting hurt here.

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It's a tough one - on one hand the petition for a 2nd referendum has gained huge momentum (nearly 3.2 M signatures at the time of writing and counting) and there are calls for the Parliament to by-pass the referendum. The only way I think this would even get a chance for serious consideration would be if the signatures exceed the number of people who voted for 'Remain'. Otherwise one should logically assume that it's really just all the people who voted to remain that are trying to get a second stab at it.

On the other hand, what signal would that send to the world about democracy in the UK?

When I first saw the BBC and other MSM outlets continuously pushing this petition mentioning it at every opportunity, I smelt a rat. The faintest little scratch beneath the surface shows that it isn't what it claims to be.

3M+ 'Remain' Petition Uses 'Script' To 'Fake' Signatures: 25,000 From North Korea, 2,800 From Uninhabitable Antarctic

Even the BBC have posted a report

Second EU referendum petition investigated for fraud - BBC News

But that doesn't negate the inevitable attempts to block/overturn the referendum decision in parliament or the regional assemblies as several have mentioned. The variety and depth of vested interests involved in Remain is humungous and those against the decision will continue to fight it, manyl using any means necessary.

I thought there was a certain amount of irony seeing a few hundred militant leftists and so-called anarchists demonstrating against the decision in London, basically supporting the line of the establishment and big banks to Remain, calling for the decision to be overturned immediately and threatening violence to those who resist. So they don't like or respect the democratic decision of the people and they're going to beat up people who disagree, including those who put their lives on the line so they could have the right to protest. Hmmm - smells of fascism...

Another perhaps even greater irony was during a round table discussion on BBC World News - a writer claiming to represent the "disenfranchised" younger generation quoted a newspaper headline saying "Oh gran, what have you done!" and suggested that because older people won't have to live with the consequences of this for long and younger people will, that there should be another referendum. To which an older historian replied does that mean you're suggesting that under 30s vote should count double? Or perhaps that over 65s should be banned from voting? Its amazing how quickly stupidity can rise to the surface when people's positions feel threatened.

Given that there's no real political leadership in the two main parties now, this will drag on for some time...

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Rory View Post
"Scotland's parliament would consider blocking legislation on Britain's exit from the European Union if that were necessary to protect Scottish interests, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said.

Exactly what I was hearing although 'would consider blocking' was 'will block'.

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Exactly what I was hearing although 'would consider blocking' was 'will block'.

No, the verbatim exchange was


Quoting 
Interviewer: "Would you consider asking the Scottish parliament not to back such a motion of legislative consent?"

NS: "Of course [...] of course that's going to be on the table!"




I want to point this out because the BBC too wrongly characterized it as


Quoting 
SNP leader Ms Sturgeon said that "of course" she would ask MSPs to refuse to give their "legislative consent". (Article here)



That's very uncommon for the BBC not to report the facts but to distort them, which would give credence to the theory of the BBC pushing the IN political agenda, should I find more of this evidence.

Politicians are usually very careful with their words (that's their job anyway), so she would have not said "I will block it". Saying "Of course I will consider blocking it" is another matter entirely and always gives her the wiggle room to do what she wants later.

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SMCJB View Post
Id just found it interesting that I don't have a European Passport and nobody in Europe other than English cared where I was or where I was going. I understand the borderless advantages to Euro's but surprised it's borderless for everybody not just Europeans.

Your view is slightly distorted: You came into Europe by airplane (I assume). Therefore the controls are not necessarily
within the airport at arrival. Open entry doors without passport control within the airport does not mean anything.
Controls from country to country within 30km away from the border are highly probable any time at any place.
All countries in the center of Europe (EU or not) are blocking refugees coming from the south wanting to wander north.
This means Switzerland, Austria, Hungaria and others are very vigilant to halt paperless or visaless people crossing
the borders.
One example: Take the night train from Milan (Italy) to Brig (Switzerland) which heads to France some hours later you
can face a stop of the train before entering Switzerland. Even worse - the Swiss border controls on board are very tough while the train is moving. If the border control sees too many refugees without any papers they stop the train finally before entering Switzerland.
This means ALL people are sent back with the same train to Milan again. No person gets a possibility to pass border of Switzerland at that very moment.
The same is seen in all the other Schengen countries especially in Austria at the Brenner.
Just don't think to travel easily over borders in Europe these days - that is just no longer true.

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GFIs1 View Post
Your view is slightly distorted: You came into Europe by airplane (I assume). Therefore the controls are not necessarily
within the airport at arrival. Open entry doors without passport control within the airport does not mean anything.
Controls from country to country within 30km away from the border are highly probable any time at any place.
All countries in the center of Europe (EU or not) are blocking refugees coming from the south wanting to wander north.
This means Switzerland, Austria, Hungaria and others are very vigilant to halt paperless or visaless people crossing
the borders.
One example: Take the night train from Milan (Italy) to Brig (Switzerland) which heads to France some hours later you
can face a stop of the train before entering Switzerland. Even worse - the Swiss border controls on board are very tough while the train is moving. If the border control sees too many refugees without any papers they stop the train finally before entering Switzerland.
This means ALL people are sent back with the same train to Milan again. No person gets a possibility to pass border of Switzerland at that very moment.
The same is seen in all the other Schengen countries especially in Austria at the Brenner.
Just don't think to travel easily over borders in Europe these days - that is just no longer true.

GFIs1

Interesting update thx. l haven't travelled through that region for a few years. Is it correct to say these border controls have tightened in the past 18 months or so?

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No, the verbatim exchange was






I want to point this out because the BBC too wrongly characterized it as





That's very uncommon for the BBC not to report the facts but to distort them, which would give credence to the theory of the BBC pushing the IN political agenda, should I find more of this evidence.

Politicians are usually very careful with their words (that's their job anyway), so she would have not said "I will block it". Saying "Of course I will consider blocking it" is another matter entirely and always gives her the wiggle room to do what she wants later.

Everyone has a different experience, & I used to believe the BBC was quite balanced in its reporting, but in recent years I've encountered almost endIess examples of deliberate distortion of the facts.

One of the most blatant for me, in the sense that I could clearly see they were lying, was when I got a phone call from my friend on holiday in Greece with some Greek friends who told me to look at BBC News 24 - they were running "live" pictures of a violent protest/ riot in a square in Greece, while I was talking to my friends by Skype sitting relaxing in a cafe in the same square. The BBC report & presenters were clearly implying that this was occurring live, not a recording from a year or 2 earlier. It was blatant.

Some friends worked at the BBC during the David Kelly inquiry & the Blair false WMD investigations when the govt whitewash forced the BBC to disassociate from & fire Robinson the reporter who broke the Kelly story, the DG & chairman resigned & the org was forced to apologise to the government. It really became spineless since then in a journalistic sense.

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Rory View Post
Agreed but I think by implication this is talking about the trading opportunities as the projections of the pound dropping by as much as 20% are looking possible. Remember its more sensitive for people who are actually getting hurt here.

There is a good argument that the Pound is fairly priced down here - and even lower.


The timing of move can be explained by Brexit - but not the relative price level.

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"British finance minister George Osborne will seek to reassure financial markets on Monday following the country's decision to leave the European Union last week, setting out the government's economic response to the vote in a statement at 0600 GMT.

Global stock markets lost about $2 trillion in value on Friday after Britain voted to leave the EU, while sterling suffered a record one-day plunge to a 31-year low and money poured into safe-haven gold and government bonds."


Full article on Reuters

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Their take for today (Monday):

The Daily Shot; June 27 - Global Macro Currents

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I think you're right, seeing as how the market had already priced in a high probability of the UK staying in.

My take on the Soros of this world is, you need a different mindset with that kind of capital. If you're a trader that is dealing in units or even tens of contracts then your skillset needs to be predominantly about trading volume, DOM, charts and the like, with an eye to the fundamentals of course.

But if you have millions or even billions then obviously your skillset needs to be 90% fundamental analysis I think, you're not going to be bothered by intraday market swings.

Just my opinion.

The topic has moved on a little since I logged in, so apologies for quoting such an old post, but I think it represented a great opportunity for a decent risk / reward trade.

The trade had the following going for it:
  1. Complacency in the markets - everyone expected the UK to remain even though the polls were close. Markets moved up and IV did not really spike.
  2. A catalyst with a very specific date - Everyone knew when the vote would be held.
  3. Potential for a shock - If Britain exited the EU, it was quite clear that it would lead to a short-term shock (to me at least).

Implementing a trade for this scenario did not require massive capital - I am pretty sure it could have been done with decent risk on a $10k account, although you would make less use of different option strikes.

So, how would we implement this trade? I should have done it as follows:
  1. Buy some put options (ATM) expiring a week after (or on the Brexit date) in the SPY.
  2. For half of the above position, sell puts a couple of strikes down. This creates a put spread and is mostly use for 2 reasons, a) if the trade does not work, then you lose less premium (risk is lower) and b) when prices don't make a large move, the put spread can provide a decent gain since its capital outlay is lower.
  3. Buy some call options in gold stocks or a gold ETF (ATM) with the same expiry as above.
  4. For half of the position, sell calls a couple of strikes up.
  5. Buy a smaller number of longer dated puts in the SPY and a smaller number of longer dated calls in the gold stocks / gold ETF. These are held for a longer term play.

The basic idea behind the trade is to make as much money off sharp moves as possible. Buying normal calls / puts tends to be quite expensive when IV is high, therefore I would use a put-spread to reduce the cost (risk) somewhat. The short leg of the put spread means that IV is not such a major concern as you sell the option at high IV as well. Of course, you need to limit risk by only having exposure (net premiums) to a low % of your portfolio since you can lose all of the premium you paid.

Your highest exposure will be to the spreads, followed by the shorter-dated options and then a much smaller position in the longer-dated options.

If the markets move against the position, the trade loses and the net premium is the loss.

If the markets make a smaller move, then the put / call spreads will make some money which can hopefully offset the cost of the long puts / calls.

If the markets make a larger move, then the put spreads will have their profit maximised which could be good or bad, depending on your chosen strikes. The long puts / calls then stand the chance to make decent gains and this is really where the trade shines.

I also would have added the longer dated puts / calls into as they sometimes make quite decent gains over time, but you need a sustained move for this to work.

Obviously the choice of strikes and the sizing of positions has a huge impact on this trade, but I can swing this in my account with reasonable risk. I think trading this way is actually more viable for smaller accounts, than trying to trade S&P futures. Risk is always limited, number of trades are limited and frequent stop-outs are avoided since a trade like this should not get whipsawed.

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Thanks @grausch - I really like your post although personally I can't follow Options' lingo but that's okay.

Do other traders have any suggestions for Brexit-related strategies that they may want to share in this thread?

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Quoting 
The pound resumed its historic slide in the wake of the UK’s decision to leave the EU, touching a fresh 30-year low despite an attempt by George Osborne to calm the turmoil in financial markets.

Breaking his silence since the referendum, the UK chancellor told a news conference that the result of the referendum was “not the outcome that I wanted” but that authorities were “ready to deal with the consequences”.

The pound weakened further on Monday, briefly falling through Friday’s low for the currency, as initial shock over Britain’s vote to leave the EU was replaced by anxiety over the repercussions for the country’s economy.

Declines for the UK currency accelerated in late morning as it fell more than 3 per cent to as low as $1.3220, pushing through Friday’s weakest point of $1.3224, a 30-year low.

The FTSE 100 stock index dropped 1.3 per cent to 6,059 points after three hours of trading, while the FTSE 250, a better gauge of the UK’s domestic economy, fell 3.7 per cent.

Benchmark UK interest rates have fallen below 1 per cent for the first time in history as the reverberations of Britain’s vote to leave the EU spur investors to seek out the safety of gilts. The 10-year gilt yield was 13bps down at 0.95 per cent.

Full article

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Rory View Post
Agreed but I think by implication this is talking about the trading opportunities as the projections of the pound dropping by as much as 20% are looking possible. Remember its more sensitive for people who are actually getting hurt here.


It could easily be a long as the shorts eventually get squeezed....

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Thanks @grausch - I really like your post although personally I can't follow Options' lingo but that's okay.

Do other traders have any suggestions for Brexit-related strategies that they may want to share in this thread?

You can think of the entire position as being short the SPY. Traditionally, you would short the SPY, use a stop-loss and just exit if it reaches your stop point. The downside to this is that you can be whipsawed quite a bit around your entry point.

Using options, you can avoid the whipsaw since you maximum loss is predefined. However, this comes at a price and therefore the SPY needs to move down by a certain percentage before the trade becomes profitable. You are exchanging the uncertainty surrounding multiple whipsaws for a lower (worse) entry price on your short. Another benefit is that you have no gap-risk - the SPY can jump by 100% overnight and my loss will be the same.

The use of put-spreads removes the unlimited profit potential from those options, but reduces their cost. They work great for short-term plays where a catalyst is involved, but in this case their goal is to try and provide a profit to the position if the market does not move down enough to offset the lower entry price of my short (as per the above paragraph).

The use of longer-term options can provide a nice profit if the markets continue in the direction. It is just there to provide a potential profit for another scenario, i.e. the market did not fall sharply, but traded down slowly.

The play in GLD assumes that if SPY falls, GLD will rise. It could be seen as redundant since you could just do the SPY trade on its own - in my situation, long positions (long calls and not long puts) can be better for tax reasons.

Thus, the trade is really not much different than a short position with a regular stop-loss.

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Fascinating, thanks @grausch.

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xiaosi View Post
It could easily be a long as the shorts eventually get squeezed....

I held 20 short on 6B from average 1.3444 and out around 1.3180 (needed a nap also), If we pass 1.3222 I'll consider a long but its news news news today for me.

Mostly I want to focus on ES/TF/CL & GC today.

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Nice CNN article that summarises the overall Brexit situation.

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Something I found surprising and actually quite saddening was statistics that were released showing voter turnout % for different age-groups. A lot of blame has been placed on 'racist old people' and 'the old ruining the lives of the young' yet it seems that it was our own age group that let ourselves down. Perhaps ignorance or just taking the right to vote for granted, the young who are now upset will learn a very important lesson in utilising your democratic right to vote.


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Something I found surprising and actually quite saddening was statistics that were released showing voter turnout % for different age-groups. A lot of blame has been placed on 'racist old people' and 'the old ruining the lives of the young' yet it seems that it was our own age group that let ourselves down. Perhaps ignorance or just taking the right to vote for granted, the young who are now upset will learn a very important lesson in utilising your democratic right to vote.

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UK loses triple-A credit rating after Brexit vote

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xiaosi View Post
It could easily be a long as the shorts eventually get squeezed....

Probably a lot sooner than people think.

I think this was mainly the mid tier of larger traders, bigger retail and the HFT's that drove this market down.

The really big boys are not going to let that stand. Look for shorts to get worked by mid July or even sooner.

Also, the fact that all the retail that had a short bias are going to keep piling on shorts will fuel the squeeze out.

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Firstly, my advice is, never use social media to get facts. Sites like FB are very prone to manipulating posts to make them look like real news to the untrained eye.

Secondly, this specific FB page in particular is clearly serving some agenda of some sort
  • It's purporting to be some sort of official page because of the 'verified' symbol next to its name: the symbol is fake
  • It's purporting to report the news 'Straight from the horse's mouth', to make the statement look like it's official-sounding
  • It claims ' Listen to this British man brazenly admit that the reason he and millions of Brits voted to leave the European Union is ...'. The opinion of one man reflects the opinion of millions? Says who?
  • The video purports to be from Channel 4 News, just because someone overlaid a "Channel 4 News" banner on it. It's clearly not coming from Channel 4

I recommend news are collected from reputable channels. As I said FB or the like are way too prone to prey on the gullible.


If you're denying the influence of racist sentiment in the Brexit vote then that speaks to my observation. One man's opinion in that video represents a microcosm of what's been presented by the Washington Post, NPR, NBCNews, The Southern Poverty Law Center, CNN, and the list goes on. They've all acknowledged and documented (many times) the intersection of xenophobia and racism in the Brexit outcome. However, the online trading community mostly ignores it. I find that a bit ironic because so many trading related discussions have a nice range of objective and well-rounded perspectives. On social issues, not so much.

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deltason View Post
However, the online trading community mostly ignores it. I find that a bit ironic because so many trading related discussions have a nice range of objective and well-rounded perspectives. On social issues, not so much.

I see exactly what you are talking about on other boards. At the other board's people are using the Brexit and Trump effect to really let their inner racist come out to play.

It's really very sad. My wife and kids are not white and I can see the prospect of the emboldened racists "speaking the truth" as they put it to my loved ones.

A lot of people are going to get hurt in the next few years over this rush to xenophobia and racism.

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I see exactly what you are talking about on other boards. At the other board's people are using the Brexit and Trump effect to really let their inner racist come out to play.

It's really very sad. My wife and kids are not white and I can see the prospect of the emboldened racists "speaking the truth" as they put it to my loved ones.

A lot of people are going to get hurt in the next few years over this rush to xenophobia and racism.

Your absolutely right...allot of people that we have forced into hardship through our relentless pursuit of 'somthing' are dying...allot more will be hurt or seriously injured in this crazy fear driven society.

My son is almost 2 now....i admit i had never cared so much for the world's children until i had my own. Now, it just breaks my heart to see so much suffering and i can't help but feel responsible as a parent, a Canadian and an Australian resident.

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bebop View Post
Interesting update thx. l haven't travelled through that region for a few years. Is it correct to say these border controls have tightened in the past 18 months or so?

Answer is NO
The change in some central European countries goes back many years already. The goal was to reduce fix
operating teams at some well known places especially at highly frequented roads that are easily to circumvent.
Now special small and middle border control teams are operating mobile up to 30km from the border itself.
The results are much better. They are controlling at points where you nearly must pass...
As for the trains - they are controlled especially on the south to north lines passing several countries.
For Switzerland every fast train coming from Germany is thoroughly controlled from Freiburg (last stop before
Basel). The same is for trains coming from Milano north passing to Brig (Canton of Wallis) or passing to Chiasso
(Canton of Ticino). That scenario was installed 20 years back.
With the new and longest train tunnel (57km) in the world that will go into service from November this year
the trains pass the alps with 200km/h. So the above controls "before" entering Switzerland will going to be
increased - as many more passengers - also paperless people will enter Switzerland.

Hope this helps
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deltason View Post
If you're denying the influence of racist sentiment in the Brexit vote then that speaks to my observation. One man's opinion in that video represents a microcosm of what's been presented by the Washington Post, NPR, NBCNews, The Southern Poverty Law Center, CNN, and the list goes on. They've all acknowledged and documented (many times) the intersection of xenophobia and racism in the Brexit outcome. However, the online trading community mostly ignores it. I find that a bit ironic because so many trading related discussions have a nice range of objective and well-rounded perspectives. On social issues, not so much.

I'm neither denying nor supporting what part racism may have played in the Brexit vote.

I am simply warning against using social media sites to support one's claims in these matters, especially in the way that link you posted tried to characterize the point being made.

As for the xenophobic episodes reported in general by the media post-Brexit, those are there for all to see. But I don't personally believe them to be a widespread problem. I believe the media in general are no longer objective and one of their main purposes is to get clicks on their articles rather than report objectively and fairly on the news.

No, I believe that there is a small part of the population who may be xenophobic, and this may have been accentuated by the EU's mismanagement of the refugees crisis since 2013 as well as general ignorance of what it means to be part of the EU.

The latter part (ignorance of EU's regulations about free movement) is clearly demonstrated when you have people say things such as "we won, out Polish, French, Muslims" as they demonstrate pure ignorance, especially when the people being subjected to this are actually born and bread in the UK.

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GFIs1 View Post
The same is for trains coming from Milano north passing to Brig (Canton of Wallis) or passing to Chiasso
(Canton of Ticino). That scenario was installed 20 years back.


Hope this helps
GFIs1

Interesting. We traveled by train from Stresa (Milano line) to Montreux (Switzerland) in April last year. Although a couple of police walked up/down the train, we were never asked for papers/passports, and I am travelling on a New Zealand one.

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deltason View Post
If you're denying the influence of racist sentiment in the Brexit vote then that speaks to my observation. One man's opinion in that video represents a microcosm of what's been presented by the Washington Post, NPR, NBCNews, The Southern Poverty Law Center, CNN, and the list goes on. They've all acknowledged and documented (many times) the intersection of xenophobia and racism in the Brexit outcome. However, the online trading community mostly ignores it. I find that a bit ironic because so many trading related discussions have a nice range of objective and well-rounded perspectives. On social issues, not so much.

There has been an increase in xenophobia from a relatively small percentage of people who are using the campaign for their own agenda and the attacks or verbal abuse are abhorent. The vast majority of people in Britain on both sides of the EU debate are extremely tolerant and open minded and certainly not xenophobic and have welcomed immigration for centuries. Many people are upset however, at the deliberate policy of mass uncontrolled immigration in a short period of time due to the pressures that places on all aspects of society for all the people involved.

This report is from a leaked govt doc 10 years ago that shows that this issue has been causing problems for quite some time, but the politicians on all sides have systematically refused to even talk about it.
New EU migrants may put pressure on public services, says report | Politics | The Guardian

Organizations like the WP, NBC, SPLC and CNN, as well as much of the media in the UK have had an agenda to brand the leave campaign as xenophobic from the start (their owners and backers were all heavily backing Remain) and focus on that one issue, when the debate has been about much much more than that. As I mentioned before I think its perfectly reasonable to have a sensible open mature debate about immigration without immediately branding everyone as racist.

I totally disagree with "the intersection of xenophobia and racism in the Brexit outcome". The outcome is the rejection of continuing membership of the EU. Its not recist or xenophobic, nor is it a rejection of europe (whatever that would be) nor an attack on the people of europe or anywhere else. The fact is people all across the continent do not want to be morphed into a giant superstate where they have zero self determination or democratic representation. The people of Ireland, France and the Netherlands have rejected EU treaties proposing greater political union in their own national referenda, and the unelected EU elite have just made them vote again until they got the result they wanted. The above mentioned media outlets have consistently failed to address this issue of democracy because it doesn't fit their agenda. Meanwhile the leaders of the EU press on with their plans for total political union against the will of the people...

EU referendum: German and French to unveil European superstate blueprint post-Brexit | Politics | News | Daily Express

and then they wonder why there's a problem...

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CobblersAwls View Post
Something I found surprising and actually quite saddening was statistics that were released showing voter turnout % for different age-groups. A lot of blame has been placed on 'racist old people' and 'the old ruining the lives of the young' yet it seems that it was our own age group that let ourselves down. Perhaps ignorance or just taking the right to vote for granted, the young who are now upset will learn a very important lesson in utilising your democratic right to vote.


Hope you're not gonna join the rediculous calls for banning the older generation from voting in future...?

EU referendum: We should ban old people from voting | British GQ

Brexit Proves Baby Boomers Should Get Less of a Vote | VICE | Australia / NZ

EU Referendum Results: Young 'Screwed By Older Generations' As Polls Suggest 75% Backed Remain

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No, @CobblersAwls was making the precise opposite statement and was echoing his/her dismay that so few young people turned out to vote.

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The latter part (ignorance of EU's regulations about free movement) is clearly demonstrated when you have people say things such as "we won, out Polish, French, Muslims" as they demonstrate pure ignorance, especially when the people being subjected to this are actually born and bread in the UK.

Problem is what media says about it and make this case ridiculously big.Here in Poland we see in TV news that in UK people attack us,they are starting to be very rude and they even distroys our culture center.Even more,when some drunk idiots destroy Polish flag you dont even whant to hear what people say about England...It could easy go out of control and the point when people start to hate each other is very close.

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Tommip View Post
Problem is what media says about it and make this case ridiculously big.Here in Poland we see in TV news that in UK people attack us,they are starting to be very rude and they even distroys our culture center.Even more,when some drunk idiots destroy Polish flag you dont even whant to hear what people say about England...It could easy go out of control and the point when people start to hate each other is very close.

That's why the government must intervene as they have done yesterday condemning this in the strongest possible terms.
That's why police needs to target these despicable acts and prevent them from spreading.
That's why we as citizens must demonstrate with actions that EU citizens in the UK are welcome.

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From BBC News

Brexit vote: Bitter exchanges as EU parliament debates Brexit - BBC News

Apparently Nigel Farage's smugness was off the charts.

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steve2222 View Post
Interesting. We traveled by train from Stresa (Milano line) to Montreux (Switzerland) in April last year. Although a couple of police walked up/down the train, we were never asked for papers/passports, and I am travelling on a New Zealand one.

You are right! Those policemen in fact were from border guard department. They have a trained eye for people that
are suspected to cross borders illegally. If you read that they may demand the train go back to the starting station...
doing this in another country (means not the own one) - then you see the system. It hits sometimes travelers that have
all the necessary to cross borders.
If you travel in Europe coming from New Zealand you are required to show passport on entry from the long distance flight.
Afterwards you are not suspect to travel illegally.

Cheers!
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David Cameron told European leaders he lost the EU referendum because they failed to address public concerns over immigration, as tensions rose ahead of looming Brexit negotiations.

The British prime minister said at his final summit in Brussels on Tuesday that fears of mass immigration were “a driving factor” behind the vote and free movement would have to be addressed in Brexit talks.

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and other leaders blocked British demands before the referendum for an “emergency brake” on migrant numbers and the idea remains anathema to many member states.

Article on the Financial Times




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GFIs1 View Post
As for the trains - they are controlled especially on the south to north lines passing several countries.
For Switzerland every fast train coming from Germany is thoroughly controlled from Freiburg (last stop before
Basel). The same is for trains coming from Milano north passing to Brig (Canton of Wallis) or passing to Chiasso
(Canton of Ticino). That scenario was installed 20 years back.

But none from France based upon my experience, which I agree poses less of a risk but still some risk.

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No, @CobblersAwls was making the precise opposite statement and was echoing his/her dismay that so few young people turned out to vote.

It doesn't come across in text, but I wasn't being serious...

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bebop View Post
It doesn't come across in text, but I wasn't being serious...

I guessed as much but you're right, it did not come across

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Problem is what media says about it and make this case ridiculously big.Here in Poland we see in TV news that in UK people attack us,they are starting to be very rude and they even distroys our culture center.Even more,when some drunk idiots destroy Polish flag you dont even whant to hear what people say about England...It could easy go out of control and the point when people start to hate each other is very close.

Every country in the world has a small minority of football thug type racists and its horrible what these people have said and done over the past few days. 99.9% of people in the UK condemn this behaviour and it will never be condoned.

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You are right bepop - but now it is not 1 % of frustrated idiots.ALL of my friends are now saying very bad things about muslims and 90 % of them are AGAINST EU- ALL of them have good jobs some are CEO or they are at least ,,average''.None of them are football redneck's.We got here a FB site called ,,No to islamisation of Europe'' witch have 300 000 likes and are dramatically radical.Its a lot for small 36 mln country.If you are not blonde and white then you can have a a lot of problems in some places... The same In Germany where most of my family is .I just think that there is big danger of something bad ,really bad in future.If EU will be destoyed then this kind of behavior could explode.Its like a end of long marriage - there is not only a divorce,it is start of frustrate,hate and confict instinct ...

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You are right bepop - but now it is not 1 % of frustrated idiots.ALL of my friends are now saying very bad things about muslims and 90 % of them are AGAINST EU- .

Now this is exactly what all radical muslims (foreign sponsored Wahhabis) and nationalist right wing people want us to believe. That this is a fight of culture. So simple to adhere to because it appeals to the baser human instinct. Sad.

By the way, i think that there are virtually no muslims in Poland. Only a small minority consisting of native Tatars, living in Poland since 600 years and immigrants from the soviet times.

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True,only Tatars and chechen's but people still hate something what they even not see in whole life ...

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Democracy

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Democracy

Showing his hands are clean?

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Rory View Post
Showing his hands are clean?

Could be Or ... maybe he thinks that he is some kind of a priest and just say - may my hands heal you ! you are healthy now ! :P

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Despite the results of the Brexit referendum, some are still questioning whether Britain will actually leave the European Union. At the moment, no one knows for what sure will happen, especially given the current chaotic state of British politics, and this post is not meant to be an attempt at predicting the future. But for now, the decision of whether Brexit actually occurs is a political one, as opposed to a legal obligation. As such, it will be subject to political calculations. The purpose of this post is to highlight the factors – from a political scientist’s perspective — that could potentially make that political decision costly enough that a different path forward is taken. Or, put another way, if Britain does somehow manage to avoid leaving the European Union, some combination of the factors below could end up being part of the reason why:

1. The Brexit referendum has no legal standing in terms of Britain exiting the EU.

2. In Britain, Parliament is sovereign.

3. Sometimes constitutional changes require more than a majority to pass.

4. Sometimes constitutional changes require more than one vote to pass.

5. Sometimes constitutional changes have sub-national as well as national vote requirements.

6. Triggering Article 50 seems to be a terrible way to begin negotiations for any country.





Analysis on the Washington Post

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