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Brexit 101
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Brexit 101

  #21 (permalink)
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jtrade View Post
Good morning, sports fans...

As the press reporting around Brexit heats up - and in the UK it is really heating up - I see the British Government has one huge disadvantage that appears to be neutralising the innate advantage of being the "status quo", ie. the advantage of people voting to avoid major change.

Almost the entire Stay in the EU argument is based on economic fear : that the UK will be worse off financially if we leave.

The Out campaign, on the other hand, argues for far more than just economic reasons : the issues of sovereignty, way of life and being able to decide what the UK wants to do, unfeterred by unelected eurobeaurocrats in Brussels. It's a stronger argument imho.

6 months ago, like David Cameron, I thought there would be no Brexit. I've changed my mind and now think that the only EU leader more deluded by what his or her party really thinks is dear Angela (Merkel)...

23 June is not so far away...

hi jtrade - status quo is the reason I think the majority will vote to stay. People generally tend to choose the option with the least change. Please note, I do not necessarily advocate for either argument, mine is just a mass-psychology consideration.

Whether enough people bother to turn up for the vote also remains to be seen.

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  #22 (permalink)
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Campaigning is already quite intense. I think after another couple of months everybody will have an opinion and the turn out will be high, though perhaps not as high as the Scottish Referendum.
Agreed that the out party have the best arguments, but Boris Johnson, as the most visible person in the leave campaign to me always feels like an opportunist. I think a lot of the 'leave' arguments make sense but feel grubby doing so as it always comes back to 'keep the foreigners out'. Happier listening to Cameron whose arguments also make a lot of sense, but it is all so negative.
Also every time there is a debate on the news/Question Time/Any Questions, involving proponents of both groups they just sit there and flat out fully contradict each other on every point because nobody actually has any idea about how the remaining European countries will deal with us afterwards.
Looking forward to making my cross on the ballot paper but am still unsure in which box it will be.


Last edited by matthew28; March 13th, 2016 at 03:38 PM.
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  #23 (permalink)
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Brexit and Britain - what would it mean for UK trade?


"The stakes will be high for Britain's historic role as a free-trading nation when it holds a referendum on whether to stay in the European Union on June 23.

There is no precedent for an economy as big as Britain's leaving a trade bloc, and the rival campaigns paint contrasting pictures of what quitting the EU might mean for its trade."

Full article on Reuters

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  #24 (permalink)
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xplorer View Post
"The stakes will be high for Britain's historic role as a free-trading nation when it holds a referendum on whether to stay in the European Union on June 23.

There is no precedent for an economy as big as Britain's leaving a trade bloc, and the rival campaigns paint contrasting pictures of what quitting the EU might mean for its trade."

Full article on Reuters

I think many have got this issue the wrong way around : Britain buys about five billion (yes, BILLION) pounds more stuff from the EU every MONTH than it sells to the EU.

Seriously, from the EU perspective, what's not to like... hardly a situation where the EU is likely to want to restrict or reduce their trade surplus with the UK ?

Edit : in goods alone, ie. excluding services & particularly financial services, the monthly difference is a little over GBP 10 billion per month.


Quoting 
Euro Area main exports partners are United States (13 percent of total exports) and United Kingdom (12 percent). Others include: China, Russia, Switzerland and Turkey. The biggest exporters within Euro Area are Germany, France, Italy and Netherlands.

In other words, the UK is the Eurozone second largest customer... who erects trade barriers to their second largest customer (Answer : only the Irish* )

* I feel I am allowed to make so-called Irish jokes because I am a quarter Irish !


Last edited by jtrade; March 14th, 2016 at 02:32 PM.
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  #25 (permalink)
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jtrade View Post
I think many have got this issue the wrong way around : Britain buys about five billion (yes, BILLION) pounds more stuff from the EU every MONTH than it sells to the EU.

Seriously, from the EU perspective, what's not to like... hardly a situation where the EU is likely to want to restrict or reduce their trade surplus with the UK ?

Edit : in goods alone, ie. excluding services & particularly financial services, the monthly difference is a little over GBP 10 billion per month.



In other words, the UK is the Eurozone second largest customer... who erects trade barriers to their second largest customer (Answer : only the Irish* )

* I feel I am allowed to make so-called Irish jokes because I am a quarter Irish !


Most of that is Belgian beer though....

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  #26 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
I am for an exit.

I think it is ludicrous to believe that a massive, unelected bureaucracy will be making timely and effective economic decisions or decisions of any kind. Or that such an organization can make 'one size fits all' decisions for a group of countries that are in such different economic situations.

Europe has grown into a cash eating monster that forces economic policy on member countries. Trouble is only the rich and disciplined ones comply and they end up being punished by having to bail out the less disciplined ones.

Trade will continue unabated simply because the demand for products is not driven by bureaucrats but by consumers. Demand will not fall away overnight and trade will continue under new free trade agreements. BMW will certainly pressure the German government to be allowed to still sell cars there.

Norway is not a member of the EU but participates in the EU internal market via The Agreement on the European Economic Area (EEA). Simple.

I 100% agree. Many continental Europeans think the EU offers freedom from nationalism. What? Wait a minute. Nationalism is what saved Britain from Hitler, so why for the life of me would we want a post national political entity?

Pro Europe folk keep stating that it is in Britain’s best interest to stay in Europe. Absolute rubbish. Although this will not stop them dishing out the threats of how bad it will be if Britain does exit. Fear is the only tactic they have left.

Fear of what. Losing trade? Half of British trade is with the EU, but only 11% of EU trade is with Britain which is exactly why Norway has that agreement as stated above.

Now, I haven’t lived in England for over a decade, but my heart still bleeds the St George’s flag every time England play. The people of GB need to make a stand. The EU and its currency is an experiment that is doomed to failure. How can you unionize countries who’s history is so vastly different. You can’t.

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  #27 (permalink)
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JonnyBoy View Post
Fear of what. Losing trade? Half of British trade is with the EU, but only 11% of EU trade is with Britain which is exactly why Norway has that agreement as stated above.

Half a small pie vs 11% of a big pie!
EU Exports for January 2016 are £10.4 billion.*
EU Imports for January 2016 are £16.8 billion.*
So Britain is a largish net importer from EU.
With the GBP droping approximately 10% in the last 4 months vs the EUR those imports have gotten 10% more expensive.


* https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx

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JonnyBoy View Post
Nationalism is what saved Britain from Hitler


The thread got through 26 posts before Hitler was mentioned, too.

That's perhaps unusual, for a political-ish thread.

I wouldn't think many people (and least of all Churchill?) would agree that "nationalism" is what saved Britain from Hitler, and to the extent that it may be so, it can perhaps equally be observed of countless other wars, from the non-aggressor's perspective, throughout history?



JonnyBoy View Post
Many continental Europeans think the EU offers freedom from nationalism.


And many think it offers freedom from "sovereignty". While others think it offers "shared sovereignty". I'm not sure there is such a thing as "shared nationalism", though some of the Scots who voted against independence in their referendum might feel otherwise?



JonnyBoy View Post
The EU and its currency is an experiment that is doomed to failure.


Its currency, certainly. The EU itself, perhaps not, if it can transsubstantiate itself completely, learning many lessons on the way (which isn't looking too likely, at the moment?).

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  #29 (permalink)
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EU referendum - David Cameron says £9m on pro-EU leaflets is money well spent

David Cameron has said he will make no apology for spending more than £9 million of taxpayers’ money on a pro-EU leaflet publicity drive ahead of the referendum, adding it’s “money well spent”.

Pro-Brexit campaigners and Conservative MPs reacted with fury to the government’s decision to send the leaflet to every household in the country, setting out the case for a “remain vote” on June 23. One Tory MP, Tom Pursglove, called it “frankly outrageous” and an “affront to democracy”.

Full article on The Independent

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xplorer View Post
David Cameron has said he will make no apology for spending more than £9 million of taxpayers’ money on a pro-EU leaflet publicity drive ahead of the referendum, adding it’s “money well spent”.

Pro-Brexit campaigners and Conservative MPs reacted with fury to the government’s decision to send the leaflet to every household in the country, setting out the case for a “remain vote” on June 23. One Tory MP, Tom Pursglove, called it “frankly outrageous” and an “affront to democracy”.

Full article on The Independent

I don't think it's an affront to democracy... more a sign of increasing desperation within the status quo...

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