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Brexit 101
Started:February 27th, 2016 (10:02 AM) by xplorer Views / Replies:14,736 / 470
Last Reply:December 3rd, 2016 (05:24 PM) Attachments:44

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Brexit 101

Old June 25th, 2016, 03:23 PM   #241 (permalink)
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Demographic breakdown of Brexit vote

Some more infographics

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Old June 25th, 2016, 03:31 PM   #242 (permalink)
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Brexit Leaders Back Away From Migration Promises After Victory

The infographic above came from this Bloomberg article by the way


Quoting 
Campaigners to get Britain out of the European Union won their shock victory by building an alliance of older and less-educated voters angry about the way globalization has changed their lives. Now theyíre telling people they wonít get what they want.

Vote Leave explicitly targeted people concerned about immigration, warning them that millions of Turks were on their way to Britain. The morning after they won Boris Johnson, their leading spokesman and the favorite to succeed David Cameron as prime minister, began backing away from that message.


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Old June 25th, 2016, 03:42 PM   #243 (permalink)
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Rory, what you seem to be saying is that you're smarter than most including your friends in the UK and you advised them to vote Remain for their and presumably your own best economic interests, and now you're upset and disgusted because the vote went the other way and MTM less than 24 hours later - you've lost net asset value and see a bleak future...?

I totally understand and I'm not trying to be harsh but those are exactly the arguments that the elite (political and otherwise), including the power structure of the EU commision and legal system, use to justify the erosion and eventual complete eradication of all semblance of democracy. They say - oh you don't need to bother with that - just leave it to us. Oh and - you don't have any say in it whatsoever. If they all truly had our best interests at heart that may be ok, but even then it would still leave the door open to future abuses. But the evidence of fraud, corruption and far worse is significant. I know you took a hit - me too. Everyone with any unhedged assets in stirling took a hit. I've had big losses over the years - anyone who's been in this game long enough has. Markets bounce back - granted this one will probably take some time.

But I'd urge you not to feel disgusted about this. Your friends and many others expressed their voice through a vote to reject an anti-democratic political and legal system.

On a completely separate note - and I'm saying this through genuine concern - it isn't too smart to trade for 15+ hours a day. I spent a number of years doing precisely that both for myself and for institutions and it can be a quick step to depression and disillusion.

Things will look better when the dust settles.

There is no point in getting to a tit-for-tat, we all just get older and not wiser discussion and we know that. As Mandela is quoted for, the more informed you are the less arrogant and aggressive you are. yadda yadda.

Your point of concern on not pushing it is noted and thank you but its fine. I had a slight burn out in my early 20s when the PTSD fairy caught up with me a year after weeks spent pulling some friends out of Rwanda in 1994. This experience does make me deeply appreciate the reason the EEC originated in the first place of course and I know more about the sharp-end of elite manipulation than you might imagine from this.

Since then I know to take care. I've only ever needed 2-4 hours plus a Saturday morning crash. My mammy was the same so I have more leisure hours than it would seem.

My net asset value is fine and future is not bleak. My only bleakness is when my girlfriend cooks boring arepa for breakfast.

I'm a trader like you, and I'm sure we have both already and will continue to make a killing on Brexit. Inspirational and tasteless "Inglorious Basterds scalper" pic

I did my research in person (no important opinion should be formed via the Inter-vine) speaking with two senior European "un-elected elites" I happen to have access to plus a couple of Brussels EU lawyers and a translator friend. Its surprising how people want to catch up when they hear you up and moved to South America

Again, your description of the EU on many points is irreconcilable with whats in my head. I refer you to the cat pushing a watermelon out of the lake. Were not going to agree.

I was a UK resident but ROI bread and the various Daves, Steves, Pauls, Sandys, Karens I know have indeed made their decision. So all my O-level educated market town & farm friends did the opposite of my heartfelt recommendation. That is a bit strange for me but I'm not doing the 'A few good men' speech. Not much anyway.

I asked and to a one they put the paper in the box on a "feeling" when almost all of their facts were wrong or grossly distorted and worse they even sort of knew this?

That "feeling" brought to them not exclusively but too significantly via fMRI influenced campaigning on the Leave side is my own "feeling". Of course the cultivated old school psych skills of the Sun/Mail etc. also. Those elite and clever FOXs and their new toys.. (borderline connected elite Fox cartoon) but I believe we are seeing the power of a new(ish) political weapon. I have growing industry experience of this stuff.

I believe Brexit leave voters just went short in the same way a novice trader does, sure they are right this time. It may not kill the account but was a bad move and now we have to trade out. I could have done without the next couple of years living 'interesting times' as the Chinese would say. I have a different slant on democracy and defending the defenseless but that is even more off topic.

Attached Thumbnails
Brexit 101-non-sequitur-watermelon-cat-web.jpg   Brexit 101-scalper.jpg   Brexit 101-rabbit.png  

Last edited by Rory; June 25th, 2016 at 04:12 PM.
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Old June 25th, 2016, 04:08 PM   #244 (permalink)
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'Surge' in searches on Irish passports

Brexit vote sparks scramble for European passports | Politics | The Guardian

A very lazy friend works in the Dublin Passport office, he is going to hate this

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Old June 25th, 2016, 05:02 PM   #245 (permalink)
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Funny Brexit pics

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Over the last couple of days I put in the Jokes section a few Brexit-related pics, for those who need a pick-me-up

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Old June 25th, 2016, 06:26 PM   #246 (permalink)
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Enjoying the discussion so far and learning a lot. One of the few observations I've made about the online trading community at large (beyond this site) is what I perceive to be a general denial that racism often plays an influential role in political and economic outcomes.

https://www.facebook.com/OccupyDemocrats/videos/1168910223202030/

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Old June 25th, 2016, 07:05 PM   #247 (permalink)
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Enjoying the discussion so far and learning a lot. One of the few observations I've made about the online trading community at large (beyond this site) is what I perceive to be a general denial that racism often plays an influential role in political and economic outcomes.

https://www.facebook.com/OccupyDemocrats/videos/1168910223202030/

Firstly, my advice is, never use social media to get facts. Sites like FB are very prone to manipulating posts to make them look like real news to the untrained eye.

Secondly, this specific FB page in particular is clearly serving some agenda of some sort
  • It's purporting to be some sort of official page because of the 'verified' symbol next to its name: the symbol is fake
  • It's purporting to report the news 'Straight from the horse's mouth', to make the statement look like it's official-sounding
  • It claims ' Listen to this British man brazenly admit that the reason he and millions of Brits voted to leave the European Union is ...'. The opinion of one man reflects the opinion of millions? Says who?
  • The video purports to be from Channel 4 News, just because someone overlaid a "Channel 4 News" banner on it. It's clearly not coming from Channel 4

I recommend news are collected from reputable channels. As I said FB or the like are way too prone to prey on the gullible.

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Old June 25th, 2016, 08:10 PM   #248 (permalink)
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Interesting passage from a 19th June article by the NY Times


Quoting 
It is certain that Brexit would do gross damage to both Europe and America. For the United States, it would mean the failure of many years of diplomacy. Britain would become at once less useful as an ally and less predictable. Washington would turn increasingly from London to Berlin.

For Europe, Britainís departure would be like a first brick pulled from a flimsy wall. The union is already fragile. Its mismanagement of the eurozone debt crisis after the 2008 crash was followed by its mismanagement of the refugee crisis. No wonder a recent Pew Research Center poll showed plummeting approval ratings for the union in key European countries.

British withdrawal isnít likely to be followed instantly by that of other member states. But nationalist governments like those in Poland and Hungary, and others besides, will be encouraged to defy European rules from trade regulations to human rights, until the whole structure disintegrates. Disputes once soothed by multinational bargaining in Strasbourg or Brussels may grow toxic.

And earlier


Quoting 
A Leave victory in the referendum is expected to topple Prime Minister David Cameron, and replace him with a radically right-wing Conservative team, which the impetuous former mayor of London, Boris Johnson, is eager to lead. The new government would immediately have to face the problems of disengaging from Europe, and possibly from Scotland. Negotiating new treaties with European trading partners would take many years. And Germany is warning that Britain will no longer have access to the European Unionís single market.


That would knock the bottom out of the Leave campaignís central promise: that Britain could have its cake and eat it, too ó retaining full access to 500 million European customers while clamping controls on immigration from the union. Cynics predict that Britain will spend five years trying to get out, and the next five trying to get back in.

This last bit made me think: it's true that the Leave camp played the 'having the cake and eating it too' like a trombone. "Hey, we can keep trading with the EU and have all this other fantastic trade agreements" was one of their mottos.

But it just occurred to me that they may have counted their chickens before they're hatched. I don't believe the EU would stand for an ex-member state wanting to do business as usual, as if nothing happened with them. That would send a huge signal that staying in the EU is pointless. So I think they'll try and make the situation for Britain as tough as they can.

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Old June 26th, 2016, 10:09 AM   #249 (permalink)
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Lots of discussion that even though the referendum passed that it might not get the needed support in Parliment to actually ever become reality

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Old June 26th, 2016, 10:16 AM   #250 (permalink)
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Lots of discussion that even though the referendum passed that it might not get the needed support in Parliment to actually ever become reality

It's a tough one - on one hand the petition for a 2nd referendum has gained huge momentum (nearly 3.2 M signatures at the time of writing and counting) and there are calls for the Parliament to by-pass the referendum. The only way I think this would even get a chance for serious consideration would be if the signatures exceed the number of people who voted for 'Remain'. Otherwise one should logically assume that it's really just all the people who voted to remain that are trying to get a second stab at it.

On the other hand, what signal would that send to the world about democracy in the UK?

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