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Brexit 101
Started:February 27th, 2016 (10:02 AM) by xplorer Views / Replies:14,761 / 470
Last Reply:December 3rd, 2016 (05:24 PM) Attachments:44

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Brexit 101

Old June 24th, 2016, 09:49 PM   #221 (permalink)
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"The British are frantically Googling what the E.U. is, hours after voting to leave it"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/24/the-british-are-fra...fter-voting-to-leave-it/

and on that note, have a good weekend everyone!

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The writer of the article doesn't bother to consider the possibility that a lot of those searches may actually come from people who voted Remain - and were told continuously that Leave wouldn't happen...No, no - far easier to trash the brits as stupid...

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Old June 24th, 2016, 09:57 PM   #222 (permalink)
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It's extremely poor journalism to use the drunken comments of a guy in a bar and then leap to the assertion that the entire Leave campaign is xenophobic. What utter crap. This isn't serious journalism.

Here's a review of a cross section of both sides views on social media from the London School of Economics:
BREXIT ? An undiscover?d country: the Brexit debate on Twitter reveals widespread democratic discontent

It does indeed show that migration concerns are a serious issue for both sides in the campaign. It also shows that a core issue is disatisfaction with dysfunctional democracy.

Quote:
...I want to find out more than just the big picture. I am interested in the particularities of identity contestation involved in the Twitter Brexit debate. I want to know what Brexit tweets tell us about the beliefs and values that drive British and European politics today. And my preliminary findings are showing some interesting trends.

Firstly, democracy is emerging as a core value that cuts across both camps. Both Leave and Remain tweets share a perception of growing democratic deficit and a desire for greater democratic accountability. There is a widespread belief that political elites are not representative, political parties are out of touch with voters, and the media cannot be trusted.
End Quote.


On the question of immigration, its perfectly possible and acceptable to have a debate about it - and this was certainly one of the main issues - without calling everyone xenophobic if they don't agree with the current policy. This is not to say that there aren't people who hold the views of the "Bob" character mentioned in the trash piece article, but to smear half of the UK as xenophobes is wrong, distasteful and frankly outrageous.

Net migration into the UK last year according to the governments official figures stood at 330k. The unofficial figures (which historically have proved extremely accurate in follow up censuses and many experts agree with) collated from net births and deaths together with applications for new social security numbers puts the figure at over 600k. A legitimate debate about this policy seems perfectly reasonable without the typical name calling and muck slinging.

I actually agree with you on the immigration issue. People do not have a natural right to come and settle in anyone else's country, and if a country allows immigrants, the people of that country should be allowed to set the terms or at least have a say. If people feel their 'way of life' is threatened, they have a legitimate reason to be concerned, and it is unfair to paint all of them with a broad 'xenophobic' brush.

My guess is, without the immigration issue, which I think was greatly exacerbated by Merkel's actions, there would still have been an anti-EU contingent in Britain, but I don't think on its own it would have been strong enough to win.

I am neither for or against this result as I don't live there and don't feel I can really judge. But it is hard to go against the will of the people. If they are wrong, they will suffer the most, and if they are right, they will benefit the most. For better or worse, the British people will ultimately be accountable for this vote, and that seems to be the best scenario one can ask for.

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Old June 24th, 2016, 10:03 PM   #223 (permalink)
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bebop View Post
The writer of the article doesn't bother to consider the possibility that a lot of those searches may actually come from people who voted Remain - and were told continuously that Leave wouldn't happen...No, no - far easier to trash the brits as stupid...

I suggest that you that you take your decibels on this argument a little lower and stop working yourself up.
We are just exchanging links here and ideas on a friendly basis!!

No one called anyone "stupid" and whether it came from the "remain" or "exit" is irrelevant! The point was that people are searching for things post a fact they decided on. More than anything, I thought it was funny as human nature.
It is a known fact that people worldwide may vote on things they do not understand the full implications of.

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Old June 24th, 2016, 11:03 PM   #224 (permalink)
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I suggest that you that you take your decibels on this argument a little lower and stop working yourself up.
We are just exchanging links here and ideas on a friendly basis!!

No one called anyone "stupid" and whether it came from the "remain" or "exit" is irrelevant! The point was that people are searching for things post a fact they decided on. More than anything, I thought it was funny as human nature.
It is a known fact that people worldwide may vote on things they do not understand the full implications of.

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Certainly not worked up here Matt. Quite the opposite. If you re-read what I said - its a reference to the writer of the article, not you (unless you wrote it ). As an exchange of ideas on a friendly basis - I wrote my opinion of what I consider to be poor journalism.

Paraphrasing the first paragraph...
"...whole world is reeling..."
"...leave campaign leaders are crowing..."
"...yet the people who voted don't know what they voted for..."

that's basically saying the whole world has suffered thanks to some smug b&ggers and the people who haven't got a clue what they're doing. Like I said - without considering the alternative possibilities for the increase in google searches - that's pretty trashy.

You may be misinterpreting the decibel levels - I'm not British - grew up in a hardcore Irish republican area - so if you know anything about the history there - you'll know I'm not saying this because i feel attacked. No - its because I was also an investigative documentary maker in a previous life and I really hate to see lazy trashy journalism. It has a very subtle, cumulative subliminal effect on people's perceptions. Its a little different when its comedy - but this isn't presented as such.

Enjoy your weekend

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Old June 24th, 2016, 11:16 PM   #225 (permalink)
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bebop View Post
Certainly not worked up here Matt. Quite the opposite. If you re-read what I said - its a reference to the writer of the article, not you (unless you wrote it ). As an exchange of ideas on a friendly basis - I wrote my opinion of what I consider to be poor journalism.

....I was also an investigative documentary maker in a previous life and I really hate to see lazy trashy journalism. It has a very subtle, cumulative subliminal effect on people's perceptions. Its a little different when its comedy - but this isn't presented as such.

Enjoy your weekend

Thanks! Understood. After so many years in the financial business, I don't take most article seriously.
Google changed journalism because most just want to get indexed ASAP to get higher page views in order to sell ads.
They are also written in a fashion where they evoke serious emotions and create arguments about them, and again this creates higher pages views. Sometimes I am (admittedly) sensitive to comments.
I appreciate your background, knowledge and explaining where you come from.

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Old June 24th, 2016, 11:25 PM   #226 (permalink)
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I think The City has fallen victim to EU-propaganda and their own group-think.

Grow some balls City !

The financial center London will drive outside the EU.
Of course the EUDSSR comrades in Brussels will attempt some punishment and revenge against UK.
As some of you have reported here - they already started.

How can anyone sympathize with an institution that acts this way ?

But they will fail.

I will hide behind this wonderful macro analysis by Peter Zeihan from today.
He brings my/his arguments better across than I could - in better English and with less cynicism:


Quoting 
Brexit

With 28 countries it is easy to get lost in the geopolitical maelstrom that is the European Union. Over the next few days (and couple of years) there will be literally thousands of stories to tell about the Britain-EU breakup. All will matter hugely to someone, but only a few will matter hugely to everyone. So let’s focus on the major points.

The United States is withdrawing from the world. The United States created and maintained the global free trade order. Without the United States’ smothering security presence, much of the world either will devolve as local powers fight for the scraps or return to their pre-1945 state of affairs. In Europe it will be a bit of both. One outcome among many is that the geopolitical environment of enforced peace and open trade that enabled the Europeans to form the EU in the first place is disappearing. For reasons well beyond the Europeans’ control, the EU is ending.

And for reasons well within the Europeans’ control, the EU is ending. If there is anything that the European Union has shown us in the past decade, it is that even in the face of an existential crisis its constituent members cannot come up with a common plan, much less a common vision. The European financial crisis -- complete with the Greek crisis -- began in 2006 and slides further down the rabbit hole with every passing year. The continent has suffered five recessions since this all started with most of its members now possessing smaller economies than before the Great Recession.

Europe is also dying for reasons independent of geopolitics and policy. All but six of its 27 members (the UK is one of the six) have already aged past any hope of demographic recovery. Germany -- the country the EU seems to be pinning its hopes on -- has the world’s most distorted population structure, with more people in their 50s than 40s than 30s than 20s than teenagers than children. Which means that all three forms of economic growth -- consumption, investment and export -- are about to prove beyond them. In essence, Europe’s aging is transforming it into a collection of old folks’ homes.
It isn’t hard to make the case that the UK jumping ship might not be all that bad of an idea.

So what happens next?
  • The Brits will need a replacement trade association. There are two options. The easier of the two is a broad scale reinvigoration of the Commonwealth which will give the UK greater access to its old empire with countries large and small, near and far. The second is both simpler and more complicated: joining NAFTA. Simple in that the Canadians will make Brentrance a cause célèbre but complicated in that the Americans will make the Brits pay through the nose (think Lend-Lease). The Brits will ultimately succeed at both. Expect the Brits to be the only country in the world with a meaningful trade deal with India, and expect all the former British colonies that trade with the EU to shift loyalties.
  • The EU leadership will want to hurt the UK, and hurt it badly, in order to dissuade others from following suit. In this they will fail. As the UK demonstrates that the EU isn’t inevitable a number of countries will see their own political systems reorder to the new reality. In particular, I’d keep my eye on Hungary (whose political system is departing from democracy and so just doesn’t fit in the club any longer), France (who feels the whole European project has gotten away from them), and Sweden (who only joined the EU because a united Europe served as a hedge against Russia).
  • The UK was the one big country constantly pushing for the EU to expand and liberalize. Without London’s influence the EU’s slide towards parochialism, protectionism and a Fortress Europe mentality will harden. No more expansions. No more common foreign policy. No more Airbus.
  • Expect the broad scale weakening of the European financial sector. Most of the EU’s financial business is settled in London and undoubtedly some of that will now relocate to the Continent. But most -- to the EU leadership’s chagrin -- will not. This will induce the EU to attempt to force its relocation using regulatory means. Considering that capital flight from the eurozone is already at record highs, expect such regulatory efforts to backfire. Horribly

source: http://eepurl.com/b7bcfz
(highlights mine)

Peter Zeihan was wing-man of half-god and greatest contemporary thinker George Friedman (My title ). But they divorced recently.


Last edited by puma; June 24th, 2016 at 11:35 PM.
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Old June 24th, 2016, 11:44 PM   #227 (permalink)
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you are certainly all aware of what is called the "bank passport". The bank passport is a EU regulation that state that any bank that has its head office in a EU country can do business in all the EU. This regulation plus a very favorable tax system was the major reason that have made UK the financial center of Europe.

By exiting the EU this point will be the main discussion point. It will have a major impact on UK economy and will raise a lot of concern also in the rest of the EU. A lot of other countries would be more than happy to see all those head offices coming to them.

It represent 2M jobs and all highest salaries of UK. Of course not all of them are in danger but the most important one are.

Concerning the exportation I don't think it will represent a major issue, UK is at 80% an economy of service and maybe a few car manufacturers will relocate in to EU countries and especially to the one will the cheap labor in Eastern Europe.

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Old June 24th, 2016, 11:51 PM   #228 (permalink)
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Okina View Post
you are certainly all aware of what is called the "bank passport". The bank passport is a EU regulation that state that any bank that has its head office in a EU country can do business in all the EU. This regulation plus a very favorable tax system was the major reason that have made UK the financial center of Europe.

By exiting the EU this point will be the main discussion point. It will have a major impact on UK economy and will raise a lot of concern also in the rest of the EU. A lot of other countries would be more than happy to see all those head offices coming to them.

London is the major/a major financial center for more than 200 years.
EU's business is done in London because of that - not the other way around.

As the comment above explains, the EU-Gutmenschen will attempt to force their will onto UK with regulations like this.
But money will move out of EU and people vote with their feet.

It is hubris that creates an argument like this. They think they can force their vision into existence.
But they fail to understand that there are dynamics and trends that are above their control.


Last edited by puma; June 25th, 2016 at 12:07 AM.
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Old June 24th, 2016, 11:53 PM   #229 (permalink)
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London is the major/a major financial center for more than 200 years.
EU's business is done in London because of that - not the other way around.

As the comment above explains, the EU-Gutmenschen will attempt to force their will onto UK with regulations like this.
But money will move out of EU and people vote with their feet.

I try to speak about fact and regulation not politic or propaganda....

I am retired but believe me I would be very concerned to be a trader in London today.

This is my last post here I have the feeling of speaking gun regulation with a Texan or abortion with a priest

I made a ton of money with the exit and it will certainly offer a lot of other very nice opportunities. But instead of defending our own feeling (and for most of what I read they are in most case naive or completely deformed by political bias) I think that the debate on a trading forum could/should be over financial implications of this vote and not on bashing pro or anti EU.

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Last edited by Okina; June 25th, 2016 at 12:01 AM.
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Old June 25th, 2016, 12:06 AM   #230 (permalink)
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I try to speak about fact and regulation not politic or propaganda....

I am retired but believe me I would be very concerned to be a trader in London today.

well Brussels does politics via regulations. That is their essence.

They are shocked and shaken again and again by any sort of "democratic uprising"
  • Irish EU vote - shocked
  • France vote on EU constitution - shocked
  • Brexit vote - shocked
  • Greece vote on EU - forced down.

a brief view into Brussel's mindset:
  • Why won't these pesky citizen in Europe understand ?
  • We will force and regulate Europe into existence.
  • Europe is not based on citizen will, but on our vision of heaven.

In my mind the people in Brussels are very dangerous men.

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