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Brexit 101
Started:February 27th, 2016 (10:02 AM) by xplorer Views / Replies:14,682 / 470
Last Reply:16 Hours Ago (05:24 PM) Attachments:44

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Brexit 101

Old June 24th, 2016, 11:13 AM   #191 (permalink)
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Okina View Post
As you state it yourself Merkel said not the EU just Merkel. Why? Because Germany need cheap labor. In the same way UK was at full employment and also needed cheap labor for outside.

She was says that for herself ... not really.Anyway its not matter- thats what matter just right after when she see how many people come here she says that all Europe should take responsibility for HER words and decision.

All politicans - from Warsaw to Lisbon and from Athens to London are living in different world then ,,normal'' people - they make a decision but normal people pay for this.As ussual ...

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Old June 24th, 2016, 11:25 AM   #192 (permalink)
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jtrade View Post
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeyYX7Sg_rA

Good speech from Boris this morning. Edit : 6.57 on video begins the key sentence that sums it all up, really.

Quite possibly the next Prime Minister.... (much smarter than he looks).

just watch it. Nice words obviously an intelligent guy but as usual completely empty speech, just general banalities (nothing against him I find that in most politician's speeches).

The brexit is not as concerning than the financial crisis of 2008 despite some alarming words on Reuteurs or Bloomberg this morning.
Very nice trading opportunities for us but the predictable recession in UK won't IMO affect the global markets once the volatility settle in a couple of days or weeks.

The most concerning effects will come in a delay of 1 or 2 years depending on how the UK exit has been negotiated. Obviously UK wants to benefit for the EU in terms of trade agreements and bank passport but not to pay for that. We will see 2 camps in the EU those who are pragmatic in the short terms and who wants to do "business as usual" and those who want to prevent a contagion because if you can leave but keep only the benefits why staying?

It is way too soon to have any idea about which camp will win.

My main concern is what will be the future of the EU central bank and what will happen with the billions of paper she has collected during the previous QE campaign? We speak of about 1.1 trillion $ (growing at a rate of 60B per month) here that will need to find a place in the market if EU explode... scary.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
Please visit this thread for more information.

Last edited by Okina; June 24th, 2016 at 11:37 AM.
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Old June 24th, 2016, 12:11 PM   #193 (permalink)
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Some perspective


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Old June 24th, 2016, 12:21 PM   #194 (permalink)
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From twitter

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Old June 24th, 2016, 12:37 PM   #195 (permalink)
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Petition for second referendum crashes government website

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It's getting quite mad......

https://twitter.com/i/moments/746307364593205253

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Old June 24th, 2016, 12:45 PM   #196 (permalink)
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xplorer View Post
It's getting quite mad......

Considering that the average UK Election turnout since 1945 has been below 75%, mad indeed....

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Old June 24th, 2016, 01:15 PM   #197 (permalink)
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xplorer View Post
I was in Italy for a holiday a week ago and the distrust for the way immigration is being handled is palbable over there. I bet if they had a chance at a referendum most people there would vote for an 'out' too.

I recently went from England-France-Switzerland-Italy-England and was very surprised the only place I needed my passport was leaving and entering England even though Switzerland is outside the EU.

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Old June 24th, 2016, 01:58 PM   #198 (permalink)
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Petition for London independence signed by thousands after Brexit vote


xplorer View Post
It's getting quite mad......

...and it's getting madder


Quoting 
A petition calling for Sadiq Khan to declare London an independent state after the UK voted to quit the EU has been signed by thousands of people.

The petition's organiser James O'Malley, said the capital was "a world city" which should "remain at the heart of Europe".

Nearly 60% of people in the capital backed the Remain campaign, in stark contrast to most of the country.

The LSE's director said the vote showed how "radically different" London is.

Full article

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Old June 24th, 2016, 02:12 PM   #199 (permalink)
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grausch View Post
Didn't expect this either and in hindsight, betting on Britain exiting would have been a really good risk/reward trade. If Britain did not exit, risk would have been pretty low in that there would not have been an upside shock. If Britain did exit, odds of a downside shock would have been pretty high. Thus, shorting the market would have been a good trade.

While I was fully covered with options, I did not go net short. My portfolio was constructed with probabilities in mind and not expected payoff. I guess seeing things like this before they happen is what made Soros & Druckenmiller such good traders. Something I most definitely need to work on.

I think you're right, seeing as how the market had already priced in a high probability of the UK staying in.

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My take on the Soros of this world is, you need a different mindset with that kind of capital. If you're a trader that is dealing in units or even tens of contracts then your skillset needs to be predominantly about trading volume, DOM, charts and the like, with an eye to the fundamentals of course.

But if you have millions or even billions then obviously your skillset needs to be 90% fundamental analysis I think, you're not going to be bothered by intraday market swings.

Just my opinion.

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Old June 24th, 2016, 02:14 PM   #200 (permalink)
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Some of my friends on FB are calling for Texit... (Texas Exit)... #comeandtakeit

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