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Brexit 101

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  #101 (permalink)
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I don't know why anyone would like to live as if all of what they do and or are allowed to do is being regulated by someone they don't know, have no control over and can't elect or change in anyway. Thats if all of Futures.IO members and their affairs are being regulated by some unknown person to any of us. Who tells us what we can trade, how we should trade, how much of our earnings should go to other members, how much we should receive from them, who we're allowed to date, how much we're allowed to spend, how much tax we pay, regardless of whether any of this is actually in our best interest.

I'm a Dutch citizen living in the UK so this could potentially impact me, yet I've told my wife to vote leave (I obviously can't vote here), as all members state have no real democratic rule whatsoever.

Regardless of how everything is being effected right after the vote such as the markets, economy, immigration etc, the above is what is most important. Even if nothing were to change for the next 15 years, when it does change what then? It will be too little too late to do something productive about it then. If the Netherlands where to get a vote it would most definitely out without a doubt. Also I've noted from the remain party that this issue of democracy is largely overshadowed as if it's not important.

I really like the way some members have turned the question upside down. Would your country like to join. Any sensible country wouldn't imho.

I would think that the end result will be very close, but as most people don't like uncertainty I can only imagine the remain might just about win. I hope leave wins though, but we shall see the end result soon.

Best of wise decision making to all UK members here on the forum

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Quoting 
An arcane British electoral law has thwarted an attempt by Parisians to hand out croissants with pro-EU messages to London voters.

A group of friends from France and the UK had planned to give out 600 croissants to commuters outside King’s Cross station on Wednesday, accompanied by postcards carrying pro-EU messages written by people in France.

But the Electoral Commission said Operation Croissant was illegal under a law that prevents the use of food, drink or entertainment to influence voting.

The croissants were baked in Paris on Wednesday morning and transported to London on the first Eurostar train of the day. But the plan to give them out to commuters was thwarted when police intervened.

A statement from the organisers said they had never intended to “buy” votes: “It was conceived as an act of friendship, proximity and goodwill – an act of breaking bread.

“Unfortunately, as we discovered today, when we were contacted by the Metropolitan police homicide and major crimes command, we cannot do that. We were unaware that mixing ‘meat, drink, entertainment’ with a message of any kind before an election can be an infraction of the law – this is totally at odds with the gesture we wanted to show, so have adapted our plans accordingly.

“While it was never our aim to buy votes with croissants, we are happy to fall on our baguettes and stick to the right side of British law.”

Give it up for the worst pun of the century.... in the title

Full article

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So the news I'm reading is saying 51-49 stay. Sterling isn't reacting either way. Anybody have any other perspective?

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Croissant the line. Worthy of the original Batman TV show.


SMCJB View Post
So the news I'm reading is saying 51-49 stay. Sterling isn't reacting either way. Anybody have any other perspective?

Sterling should be stable until the numbers start to come out as the UK has strict news embargoes while polls are open. Edit: I would pay to see US networks bite their tongues haha.

From BBC site:
"Strict reporting restrictions on polling day
Posted at
07:08
You will have noticed that our coverage of the EU referendum is limited today. That's because the BBC - like other broadcasters - is not allowed to report on the campaigning while the polls are open.

That's to ensure that the BBC's output cannot be seen as influencing the ballot while the polls are open.

* The restrictions started today at 00:30 BST and will end at 22:00 BST when voting closes.

* Between 00:30 BST and 22:00 BST there will be no coverage of any of the issues relating to the referendum campaign on TV, radio or bbc.co.uk.

* Subjects which have been contested or are part of the campaign in any way - or other controversial matters relating to the EU or the referendum - must not be covered on polling day.

What can the BBC report?

* Uncontroversial factual accounts such as the appearance of politicians and others at polling stations or the weather.

* The practicalities such as when the polls are open, the wording of the question and expectations of when the result may be known are allowed.

* The BBC's online sites will not have to remove archived reports.

What can't the BBC report?

* The BBC stops short of actually encouraging people to vote.

* While the polls are open, it is a criminal offence for anyone, not just broadcasters, to publish anything about the way in which people have voted in the referendum, where that is based on information given by voters after they have voted.

* The BBC can't report anything emerging from exit polls (which, by definition, are asking people how they actually voted), although the broadcasters have not commissioned any exit polls for the referendum.

* No opinion poll on any issue relating to the referendum can be published by broadcasters until after the polls have closed.

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SMCJB View Post
So the news I'm reading is saying 51-49 stay. Sterling isn't reacting either way. Anybody have any other perspective?

My squawk service anticipated it would not be until 3-4 am (UK time) that the situation should start telling who's won. I don't think many people are placing bets before then...

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With such a tight race and strong regional/age bias it will likely be decided by the weather.

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Rory View Post
With such a tight race and strong regional/age bias it will likely be decided by the weather.

Why though?

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xplorer View Post
Why though?

Well it would require back-testing however we don't have enough sample data for this kind of vote.

Generally however bad weather has a track record of depressing voter turnout as lovely days benefit. Say London was predominantly stay however there was severe weather locally and not in a populous leave region it could affect the count significantly.

Also the weather effects optimism/pessimism though I could not make a call on this

On a narrow margin simple stay/leave ballot the effect may be meaningful. In a proportional representation type general election ballot I'd expect to see little statistical significance.

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xplorer View Post
My squawk service anticipated it would not be until 3-4 am (UK time) that the situation should start telling who's won. I don't think many people are placing bets before then...


With Cable up over 800 pips since last thursday (can't think why that date would be important...) - I think a lot of bets have already been placed...

The steady stream of online and tel polls all say the same thing - 51-49 for remain...



There are no exit polls. I remember reading a while back that the US watchdog for foreign elections has a policy of declaring any result that is more than 2% variant from the exit polls as fraudulent. But there are no exit polls...

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xplorer View Post
Why though?

I gather due to flooding some poll stations are closed and others are barely accessible. If it's that close something like that could change everything.

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bebop View Post
With Cable up over 800 pips since last thursday (can't think why that date would be important...) - I think a lot of bets have already been placed...

The steady stream of online and tel polls all say the same thing - 51-49 for remain...



There are no exit polls. I remember reading a while back that the US watchdog for foreign elections has a policy of declaring any result that is more than 2% variant from the exit polls as fraudulent. But there are no exit polls...

My broker (we chat sometimes) was of the opinion the smart money was on remain. Of course he sounds exactly like Mr Chow from the Hangover so it could be a fake-out. (just to add, he was talking very generally over a week ago from industry news, not insider!)

There are exit polls taken but they are not published as this is illegal while the polls are open.

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Well the huge currency move yesterday implies at least to me that the big money is thinking stay.

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BenG View Post
I don't know why anyone would like to live as if all of what they do and or are allowed to do is being regulated by someone they don't know, have no control over and can't elect or change in anyway.

I totally agree Ben. The sad fact is that its been sold to the people as a democratic institution when in reality its modelled on a soviet style top-down control system. My friends from Russia, Estonia, Poland and Hungary say they can't believe the people don't realise this, but its very cleverly hidden by the smokescreen of a european parliament.


BenG View Post
Also I've noted from the remain party that this issue of democracy is largely overshadowed as if it's not important.

I watched the final BBC debate - and the three key issues - that they decided upon for the debate were
1) economy, 2) immigration and 3) Britain's place in the world. Nothing whatsover about democracy and parliamentary representation, or the key differences between the UK parliamentary process and the EU lack of representation or accountability. So the key issue was just completely ignored.



BenG View Post
I really like the way some members have turned the question upside down. Would your country like to join. Any sensible country wouldn't imho.

As the Swiss Foreign Minister said last week, shortly after their parliament retracted their bid to join - Only a complete idiot would wish to join the EU now!

Its a shame the people are so heavily lied to and have had the crap scared out of them.

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Rory View Post
My broker (we chat sometimes) was of the opinion the smart money was on remain.

I should think so Rory - after an 800 pt rally and cable sitting at the highs of the year! I wouldn't be surprised to see some shenanigans in the wee hours of the morning with an unoficial poll or 2 suggesting Leave have won, or one of the judiciously timed Reuters misprints - Woops did we say Leave - we meant to say Remain...



Rory View Post
There are exit polls taken but they are not published as this is illegal while the polls are open.

True - there are several unofficial ones, but there are no official exit polls.
Just as an aside - I read a report last week about the use of exit polls in the US democratic primaries. In the states that had them - Sanders beat Clinton by 65-35. In the states where there were no official exit polls (where coincidentally the largest delegates were up for grabs..) - Clinton beat Sanders - 51-49
Just as an aside...

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Reminds me of the Scottish vote. I think remain will win. General population is more comfortable with the devil they know then exploring the unknown.

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tturner86 View Post
Reminds me of the Scottish vote. I think remain will win. General population is more comfortable with the devil they know then exploring the unknown.

Especialy when the unknown is portrayed as the precipice to a giant gaping vortex descending into the bowels of hell...

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bebop View Post
I should think so Rory - after an 800 pt rally and cable sitting at the highs of the year! I wouldn't be surprised to see some shenanigans in the wee hours of the morning with an unoficial poll or 2 suggesting Leave have won, or one of the judiciously timed Reuters misprints - Woops did we say Leave - we meant to say Remain...


True - there are several unofficial ones, but there are no official exit polls.
Just as an aside - I read a report last week about the use of exit polls in the US democratic primaries. In the states that had them - Sanders beat Clinton by 65-35. In the states where there were no official exit polls (where coincidentally the largest delegates were up for grabs..) - Clinton beat Sanders - 51-49
Just as an aside...

Yes, I don't know the official monitoring arrangement today but sanity check monitoring is always done by both sides and probably some independent body.

The US is an oligarchy (you know the research I'm sure) but Gerrymandering is legal (when its made legal) and part of the political process. We never really moved past timocracy IMHO.

Notice how Noam was strikingly younger when he said this about manufactured consent:


A tremendous amount of the stuff Europe is blameworthy of is the fault of successive national governments and they ain't getting smarter, braver or better looking.

But few even understand the difference between a democratic republic and a true direct democracy (I think only part? of Switzerland is a true democracy). So if they make no effort.. Maybe online voting has a place but personally I'm waiting until the singularity so we can have our own manufactured god fix it all for us

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On the morning of the referendum....in the free newspaper handed out to all commuters in the capital...

Eu Referendum: Brexit could threaten future series of Game Of Thrones | Metro News

gimme a break...

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Rory View Post
Yes, I don't know the official monitoring arrangement today but sanity check monitoring is always done by both sides and probably some independent body.

The US is an oligarchy (you know the research I'm sure) but Gerrymandering is legal (when its made legal) and part of the political process. We never really moved past timocracy IMHO.

Notice how Noam was strikingly younger when he said this about manufactured consent:


A tremendous amount of the stuff Europe is blameworthy of is the fault of successive national governments and they ain't getting smarter, braver or better looking.

But few even understand the difference between a democratic republic and a true direct democracy (I think only part? of Switzerland is a true democracy). So if they make no effort.. Maybe online voting has a place but personally I'm waiting until the singularity so we can have our own manufactured god fix it all for us

I'd be the last person to argue that national governments and their half-assed implementations of democracy in the UK, other european countries or the US are perfect, free of corruption or political shenanigans. That already limited semblence of democratic representation and political accountability has been steadily eroded for decades as the media has been silent and silenced to a greater and greater extent. I agree with Chomsky - elections in the US (and elsewhere) are stage-managed events where the perception of choice is really only the difference between two flavours of the same gruel. That is the essence of the global-elite plan that goes back to at least (and probably much further than) the Anglo-American Establishment of the late 19th century that Prof Carroll Quigley wrote about in the late 60s in Tragedy & Hope, with the formation of the Rhodes scholars, the Rockefeller, Carnegie (etc) so-called philanthropic foundations, the intelligence services (etc) in order to control every aspect of society. As JD Rockefeller so infamously said "competition is a sin". And that brings us full circle to the EU commission corporate cartel.

But there's still a difference between voting for political representation that has the capacity, if not the will or the wherewithall in the majority of cases, to enact change for the benefit of contituents, and the current EU politburo. The US Congress is most of the way to the same situation through the excessive influence of corporate and foreign government financing, but it hasn't yet reached the total anti-democratic level of the EU. But its close. And while that is still the case - in any country - there's still the opportunity to change the gruel for something more palatable.

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Rory View Post
Well it would require back-testing however we don't have enough sample data for this kind of vote.

Generally however bad weather has a track record of depressing voter turnout as lovely days benefit. Say London was predominantly stay however there was severe weather locally and not in a populous leave region it could affect the count significantly.

Also the weather effects optimism/pessimism though I could not make a call on this

On a narrow margin simple stay/leave ballot the effect may be meaningful. In a proportional representation type general election ballot I'd expect to see little statistical significance.


SMCJB View Post
I gather due to flooding some poll stations are closed and others are barely accessible. If it's that close something like that could change everything.

Sure but why would that make a difference? There will be people in both camps that, if it rains, won't have been bothered to go and vote. There will also be people determined to vote no matter what. Again that should apply to both camps.

I'm not sure I buy the weather argument.

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I'd be the last person to argue that national governments and their half-assed implementations of democracy in the UK, other european countries or the US are perfect, free of corruption or political shenanigans. That already limited semblence of democratic representation and political accountability has been steadily eroded for decades as the media has been silent and silenced to a greater and greater extent. I agree with Chomsky - elections in the US (and elsewhere) are stage-managed events where the perception of choice is really only the difference between two flavours of the same gruel. That is the essence of the global-elite plan that goes back to at least (and probably much further than) the Anglo-American Establishment of the late 19th century that Prof Carroll Quigley wrote about in the late 60s in Tragedy & Hope, with the formation of the Rhodes scholars, the Rockefeller, Carnegie (etc) so-called philanthropic foundations, the intelligence services (etc) in order to control every aspect of society. As JD Rockefeller so infamously said "competition is a sin". And that brings us full circle to the EU commission corporate cartel.

But there's still a difference between voting for political representation that has the capacity, if not the will or the wherewithall in the majority of cases, to enact change for the benefit of contituents, and the current EU politburo. The US Congress is most of the way to the same situation through the excessive influence of corporate and foreign government financing, but it hasn't yet reached the total anti-democratic level of the EU. But its close. And while that is still the case - in any country - there's still the opportunity to change the gruel for something more palatable.

I agree with most of it except I will reverse this sentence : "The US Congress is most of the way to the same situation through the excessive influence of corporate and foreign government financing, but it hasn't yet reached the total anti-democratic level of the EU. "

When you are implementing regulations that affect lots of different countries with different situations and problems what we can call the regular "democratic" process may be not perceived. But if we take actual examples the EU has taken very courageous measures in the global interest of the population and measures that were fiercely defended by powerful lobby (and yes they also took a lot of stupid one). Like interdiction of some pesticides, regulation of the use of genetically modified agricultural products etc... Those subjects have really hurt very powerful corporations. We don't see that in North America, here what is good for the business, the population must live with it.

I had several businesses in Europ and yes when you want to produce something you have to comply with 100 regulations vs maybe 1 or 2 in the US. But 90% of those regulations state that : you can not use this or that component because it could have a negative impact on the population or the environment or you can not use this or that commercial practice because it could be misleading for the consumer. So at the end I am also a consumer and I appreciate that.

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xplorer View Post
Sure but why would that make a difference? There will be people in both camps that, if it rains, won't have been bothered to go and vote. There will also be people determined to vote no matter what. Again that should apply to both camps.

I'm not sure I buy the weather argument.

It was not intended to be a very serious observation, not much to buy just noting a randomising effect on a very tightly contested poll.

If rain was a symmetric influence across the geography of the land I'd agree but I made the point about regional and demographic bias?

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Rory View Post
It was not intended to be a very serious observation, not much to buy just noting a randomising effect on a very tightly contested poll.

If rain was a symmetric influence across the geography of the land I'd agree but I made the point about regional and demographic bias?

No worries... I think I get what you say... you're suggesting that, given older people are the ones who tend to want to leave, they might have been more affected by the weather and in that case just stay home?

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I agree with most of it except I will reverse this sentence : "The US Congress is most of the way to the same situation through the excessive influence of corporate and foreign government financing, but it hasn't yet reached the total anti-democratic level of the EU. "

When you are implementing regulations that affect lots of different countries with different situations and problems what we can call the regular "democratic" process may be not perceived. But if we take actual examples the EU has taken very courageous measures in the global interest of the population and measures that were fiercely defended by powerful lobby (and yes they also took a lot of stupid one). Like interdiction of some pesticides, regulation of the use of genetically modified agricultural products etc... Those subjects have really hurt very powerful corporations. We don't see that in North America, here what is good for the business, the population must live with it.

You can be sure that regulation against one type of pesticide and its associated lobbyists is due to another pesticide and its lobbyists paying more. And they always leave open an export route for any products they're embarassed into banning. If the commision truly had the humanitarian interests you speak of, they wouldn't ban infected blood products (only after widespread outrage) without also enabling the same products to be exported to other countries. Nothing can effect the bottom line...

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bebop View Post
I'd be the last person to argue that national governments and their half-assed implementations of democracy in the UK, other european countries or the US are perfect, free of corruption or political shenanigans. That already limited semblence of democratic representation and political accountability has been steadily eroded for decades as the media has been silent and silenced to a greater and greater extent. I agree with Chomsky - elections in the US (and elsewhere) are stage-managed events where the perception of choice is really only the difference between two flavours of the same gruel. That is the essence of the global-elite plan that goes back to at least (and probably much further than) the Anglo-American Establishment of the late 19th century that Prof Carroll Quigley wrote about in the late 60s in Tragedy & Hope, with the formation of the Rhodes scholars, the Rockefeller, Carnegie (etc) so-called philanthropic foundations, the intelligence services (etc) in order to control every aspect of society. As JD Rockefeller so infamously said "competition is a sin". And that brings us full circle to the EU commission corporate cartel.

But there's still a difference between voting for political representation that has the capacity, if not the will or the wherewithall in the majority of cases, to enact change for the benefit of contituents, and the current EU politburo. The US Congress is most of the way to the same situation through the excessive influence of corporate and foreign government financing, but it hasn't yet reached the total anti-democratic level of the EU. But its close. And while that is still the case - in any country - there's still the opportunity to change the gruel for something more palatable.

I think we are generally in agreement, just got out of different sides of the bed on the veracity of a few points.

I don't believe the EU functions as you do in a purely un-elected politburo process. Its not a digital thought for me, the governance framework is.. peculiar?.. and needs to be looked at but repair is possible is my analysis. "total anti-democratic" is not how I see it, I feel its closer to bureaucratically constipated and needs appropriate treatment.

I can say that nobody I know in Europe was ever told by an elected official when they had cancer to the effect "sorry you can't afford to live, I'll pray for you" as happened to one of my best friends in the US. His insurance company found a loophole way to deny cover mid-treatment of chemo and he went to his congressman.

The US does influence Europe and vice versa. Idealistically I would like to see the US benefit from seeing it done right.

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No worries... I think I get what you say... you're suggesting that, given older people are the ones who tend to want to leave, they might have been more affected by the weather and in that case just stay home?

Yes or the S.E. including London is significantly Remain and there was severe weather as opposed more Murdoch reading parts of the North. I'm guessing North though I think all my friends in Wiltshire are voting Leave (yeah.. I lived on a farm ok )

Sleep Well!

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Watching BBC. Very very early but does it seem like the expected stay vote area's are coming in with a lower than expected majority and the leave expected area's are higher majority than expected? Saying that USDGBP is ticking up not down.

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I am watching the poll estimation results in live with my CL chart. I guess it is the same with FX and even more accurate.

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SMCJB View Post
Watching BBC. Very very early but does it seem like the expected stay vote area's are coming in with a lower than expected majority and the leave expected area's are higher majority than expected? Saying that USDGBP is ticking up not down.

Newcastle remain 51/49 vs expected 60/40 ish.
BBC talking a lot about the postal vote which is mostly older people and hence mostly leave.
GBPUSD now down to 1.484

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LIVE: EU referendum count - RTÉ News

The Irish national news is usually clearer and less biased than anything in the UK if of any help to anyone.

Whatever happens I'm sure it will be ok. I have a house in London which may be about to become unaffordable to my tenants.. but.. then I remember we live in a multiverse so I'm doing ok elsewhere.


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SMCJB View Post
Newcastle remain 51/49 vs expected 60/40 ish.
BBC talking a lot about the postal vote which is mostly older people and hence mostly leave.
GBPUSD now down to 1.484

Sunderland in. Strong Leave 61/39. GBPUSD now down to 1.447

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the funny thing it that for the moment the strongest leave are in place where the main employer of the region is a company producing and exporting mainly in EU.

It looks like the workers in those plants have not understood something... They will wake up one morning so happy to have leave EU and its "bad" immigration policies just to discover shortly after that the factory is about to move to Poland.

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the funny thing it that for the moment the strongest leave are in place where the main employer of the region is a company producing and exporting mainly in EU.

It looks like the workers in those plants have not understood something...

Murdoch controlled newspaper readers (being very facetious).

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Probably should be watching EURUSD but GBPUSD all over the place. BBC reporting 1.43 trading but fx sites now showing 1.465/1.47. On vacation so only have iPad with me.

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Probably should be watching EURUSD but GBPUSD all over the place. BBC reporting 1.43 trading but fx sites now showing 1.465/1.47. On vacation so only have iPad with me.

Its all over the place alright. My bot is out of action and it eats this stuff for breakfast... I had 1.43 pegged too. sigh.

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This is from Oanda (everything priced into the spread). Cable pairs are not normally this steep
(The spread is the right column)


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the funny thing it that for the moment the strongest leave are in place where the main employer of the region is a company producing and exporting mainly in EU.

It looks like the workers in those plants have not understood something... They will wake up one morning so happy to have leave EU and its "bad" immigration policies just to discover shortly after that the factory is about to move to Poland.

They're more likely voting in protest at the decimation of what has always been the largest employer in in Tees and Wearside - the local steel industry, due in no small part to massive dumping of cheap steel from china for which the EU has done absolutely nothing - even though they have "strict" trade rules in place to prevent this. Like I said - bought and paid for...

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They're more likely voting in protest at the decimation of what has always been the largest employer in in Tees and Wearside - the local steel industry, due in no small part to massive dumping of cheap steel from china for which the EU has done absolutely nothing - even though they have "strict" trade rules in place to prevent this. Like I said - bought and paid for...

I though it was against the battle of Hasting on October 14th 1066 when William the Conqueror was symbolizing the first EU invasion LOL

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High stakes for 'Game of Thrones' and the Brexit vote

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So with the impending vote I have topic I am curious to get peoples opinion on.

The 3 days prior to today saw several low volume range day, no big surprise. With ballots getting cast last night during the European session you saw the overnight US markets make a larger move. During the day today (23rd) however the range was pretty limited up until the last roughly hour and a half. Once the US markets closed however volatility went off the chart.

I understand that news like this has huge impacts on the world economy and large institutions, but why so much action AFTER the US markets close and BEFORE the European markets open? Is it FX related? What do you think?

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...

I understand that news like this has huge impacts on the world economy and large institutions, but why so much action AFTER the US markets close and BEFORE the European markets open? Is it FX related? What do you think?

Electronic trading markets, man. The world is large, like 24-hour large.

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The Beast is Dropping out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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uspilotzzz View Post
So with the impending vote I have topic I am curious to get peoples opinion on.

The 3 days prior to today saw several low volume range day, no big surprise. With ballots getting cast last night during the European session you saw the overnight US markets make a larger move. During the day today (23rd) however the range was pretty limited up until the last roughly hour and a half. Once the US markets closed however volatility went off the chart.

I understand that news like this has huge impacts on the world economy and large institutions, but why so much action AFTER the US markets close and BEFORE the European markets open? Is it FX related? What do you think?

I guess results started coming in at 8pm eastern hence why the big moves came then.

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Man, look at the FTSE (footsie) future, down almost 8%. Oi vey! And GC, as expected on a turn like this, is super up. Wheee!

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Brexit is done dusted....All of this is the fault of the United States and her allies. The US and her allies created an in-stable middle east which led to the many uprisings and the Arab spring.....then the rise of IS, which led to a huge refugee crisis. IS fanned the flames into Islamophobia and now the world is scared....

This is what the Brexit means to me. A sad day for humanity....

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I believe there is a strong *&^% the system sentiment in the world at the moment. POTUS Trump might be possible come November... Either that or a deadlock election that leads to the House voting and failing to select a POTUS.

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I believe there is a strong *&^% the system sentiment in the world at the moment. POTUS Trump might be possible come November... Either that or a deadlock election that leads to the House voting and failing to select a POTUS.

Besides the risk of the end of EU (Greek default risk included), the TRUMP card (pun intended) is the next risk off card to be played...

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Results of 52% to leave versus 48% to stay...
72% went voting.

Pound lost 10% until now.

Markets today will be shaky.

Best to stay at the sideline.

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xiaosi View Post
Brexit is done dusted....All of this is the fault of the United States and her allies. The US and her allies created an in-stable middle east which led to the many uprisings and the Arab spring.....then the rise of IS, which led to a huge refugee crisis. IS fanned the flames into Islamophobia and now the world is scared....

This is what the Brexit means to me. A sad day for humanity....

uh yeah, its the fault of the US, of course. Because in the end its always our fault, right? All those British citizens who voted to 'Leave' are just mindless drones who didn't really have a choice...

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srgtroy View Post
uh yeah, its the fault of the US, of course. Because in the end its always our fault, right? All those British citizens who voted to 'Leave' are just mindless drones who didn't really have a choice...

It's all crooked Hillary's fault! That's what Donald is saying.

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LOSS of 11%

Deutsche Bank -19%
Commerzbank -19%

oops

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Britain just raped the 'smart' money betting on remain...

#LONGLIVEWINTERFELL!!!

WINTER IS COMING.

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xiaosi View Post
Brexit is done dusted....All of this is the fault of the United States and her allies. The US and her allies created an in-stable middle east which led to the many uprisings and the Arab spring.....then the rise of IS, which led to a huge refugee crisis. IS fanned the flames into Islamophobia and now the world is scared....

This is what the Brexit means to me. A sad day for humanity....

Its one of the rare examples of true democracy at work these days, despite months of a continual barrage of an impending Doomsday scenario of economic, social and political catastrophy, together with a viscious smear campaign of being called xenophobic directed at anyone who mentioned that the current immigration policy is completely unsustainable.

Add to that the MSM bias and the deliberate burial of the central issue of a complete lack of democratic representation, accountability or oversight that's at the core of the EU as a political institution. The majority of people said they no longer want to be ruled, regulated and taxed by an institution of 28 commisioners that they cannot elect, or unelect, who do the bidding of the global corporate and banking elite. There was enough discontent and anger at anti-democratic EU control within Britain for the Brexit to have happened before the US created Al Qaeda, ISIS and fuelled the war in Syria. The people in the UK said to the political, corporate and financial elite - you lied to us in the first referendum 40 years ago - and you're lying to us again. They said - we fell for it then, but not now. They said plain and simple - we want our democracy back.

I don't think that's a sad day at all....Quite the opposite.

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Its one of the rare examples of true democracy at work these days, despite months of a continual barrage of an impending Doomsday scenario of economic, social and political catastrophy, together with a viscious smear campaign of being called xenophobic directed at anyone who mentioned that the current immigration policy is completely unsustainable.

Add to that the MSM bias and the deliberate burial of the central issue of a complete lack of democratic representation, accountability or oversight that's at the core of the EU as a political institution. The majority of people said they no longer want to be ruled, regulated and taxed by an institution of 28 commisioners that they cannot elect, or unelect, who do the bidding of the global corporate and banking elite. There was enough discontent and anger at anti-democratic EU control within Britain for the Brexit to have happened before the US created Al Qaeda, ISIS and fuelled the war in Syria. The people in the UK said to the political, corporate and financial elite - you lied to us in the first referendum 40 years ago - and you're lying to us again. They said - we fell for it then, but not now. They said plain and simple - we want our democracy back.

I don't think that's a sad day at all....Quite the opposite.

Is there such a thing is a true democracy? What we now have is momentum for the anti-establishment political movement.

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Is there such a thing is a true democracy? What we now have is momentum for the anti-establishment political movement.

I agree -its anti-establishment -& part of a broader movement. In this particular instance demonstrated through the voice of the people in a national referendum. Rare - only the third time in British history. But as clear an example of democracy as you're likely to get in the current political wasteland. Or do you have a different definition of democracy?

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David Cameron retires...

For sure many things will change in the near future.
Hopefully for the better.

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I was laying in bed earlier on, but curious to check the news. There was this period of time between me waking up and checking the news where I said to myself 'I'm waking up and getting up to the UK staying anyway'.... and the first news I read is "Britain votes to leave the EU"....

I am quite stunned to be honest. I didn't think this would have happened. But clearly many people are fed up and as many of you said, this sounds much like an anti-establishment revolt....

Politicians will have to readjust themselves....

Anyone heard from any politician's reaction from other EU countries yet....?

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Didn't expect this either and in hindsight, betting on Britain exiting would have been a really good risk/reward trade. If Britain did not exit, risk would have been pretty low in that there would not have been an upside shock. If Britain did exit, odds of a downside shock would have been pretty high. Thus, shorting the market would have been a good trade.

While I was fully covered with options, I did not go net short. My portfolio was constructed with probabilities in mind and not expected payoff. I guess seeing things like this before they happen is what made Soros & Druckenmiller such good traders. Something I most definitely need to work on.

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European leaders expressed shock at a Brexit result that represents the biggest setback in the EU’s history and will plunge the bloc into a new era of crisis and uncertainty.

Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s deputy chancellor, summed up the mood in a terse tweet: “Damn! A bad day for Europe.”

Brexit was a “political earthquake for Europe”, which would now require “swift changes to become more than just the EU minus Great Britain,” said Sebastian Kurz, the Austrian foreign minister.

The seismic vote will deprive the EU of one of its largest member countries, a state with a UN Security Council veto which accounts for around a sixth of the bloc’s total economic output. It will also initiate two years of messy divorce proceedings, plunging the EU into a long era of uncertainty.

Full article on the Financial Times

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grausch View Post
Thus, shorting the market would have been a good trade.

Not having predicted the market - I only said in my thread that the support (cloud in 1h chart) *
in the DAX future was turning to minus on Friday morning: that happened exactly.
Of course - money risk management was telling to stay at the sidelines as everything
could happen. Such action in my view is gambling and not trading.

What will happen next?
The EU stocks - especially the German 30 Dax companies - will have to react to the new
complicated situation: In short - the banks and the car makers will face a negative situation.
To the contrary the Frankfurt stock exchange will swing up.

GFIs1

*
see the levels reached this morning

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...There was enough discontent and anger at anti-democratic EU control within Britain for the Brexit to have happened before the US created Al Qaeda, ISIS and fuelled the war in Syria...

The US fueled the war in Syria? lol That, my friend, is a laughable statement. Barack Obama is relentlessly pilloried by his opponents for having done jack squat in Syria, and allowing the problem to fester until it became an international migrant issue that ultimately has come back to haunt Europe. Forget establishing a safe zone by air, he did not even stand by his so called red line when Assad used chemical weapons against his own people. In fact, Obama, and by extension the United States, having been bitten by the Iraq snake, did absolutely zilch in Syria, irrespective of whether that was actually the correct policy to follow or not. But one thing they most definitely did not do is fuel that war.

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Not having predicted the market - I only said in my thread that the support (cloud in 1h chart) *
in the DAX future was turning to minus on Friday morning: that happened exactly.
Of course - money risk management was telling to stay at the sidelines as everything
could happen. Such action in my view is gambling and not trading.

In order to control risk, the way I would have done the trade would have been with layered multi-strike puts and put-spreads in certain stocks / indices and against the GBP. The cost of the transaction would have been low, risk would have been limited and the reward would have been decent.

Done this way, I do not consider it that risky, merely opportunistic. However, doing this type of trade being short futures would be very risky (due to heightened volatility) and you would need very wide stops together with smaller size.

I tend to quite frequently fall into the trap of wanting to protect my capital, rather than trying to maximise gains on it. In hindsight, this represented an opportunity for decent gains with a very specific catalyst. I could have been net short, but decided the odds of Britain actually leaving were too low. Thus, my opinion was more important than making money. Oh well, I guess we live and learn.

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Suggesting that the US had a role in Brexit appears ludicrous to me, especially given Obama's recent very supportive (and imho interfering) comments towards David Cameron at Downing Street.

On the other hand, I'd bet Jean-Claude Junker and other unelected bureaucrats would love to turn the clock back to last February and give Cameron far more of what he wanted to keep the UK in. Imho it was that failure c/w Merkel's foolish misjudgement of the migrant crisis (which will be her undoing, which is a shame as she's been by far the best EU leader of the last decade) that drove the UK to vote out.

It's interesting that all the headlines are "Pound and FTSE plunge !", when the Euro & other stock markets are plunging just as much.

The pound will recover : it's the Euro that's going to USD parity.

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There are 250 exterior banks located in London to have a connection seat to
EU.
Of course most of those will need to move to another country soon.

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The US fueled the war in Syria? lol That, my friend, is a laughable statement. Barack Obama is relentlessly pilloried by his opponents for having done jack squat in Syria, and allowing the problem to fester until it became an international migrant issue that ultimately has come back to haunt Europe. Forget establishing a safe zone by air, he did not even stand by his so called red line when Assad used chemical weapons against his own people. In fact, Obama, and by extension the United States, having been bitten by the Iraq snake, did absolutely zilch in Syria, irrespective of whether that was actually the correct policy to follow or not. But one thing they most definitely did not do is fuel that war.

Its off topic - so i'll keep it brief - but creating, training and arming Al Qaeda (not disputed in the media - MSM or otherwise), funding, training and arming ("fast and furious" guns from Libya through Turkey) ISIS (not disputed in the media - MSM or otherwise), directly enacting a policy of regime change (yet again) against an elected government in Syria (I'm not going to get into the contentious arguments of whether that regime is good or bad - that's irrelevant here) (again not disputed in the media), bombing Assads forces and the Kurds that are both fighting ISIS, instead of bombing ISIS, until the Russians stepped in and actually starting bombing ISIS, (this is widely accepted in alt media both left and right and in some, although not all of the MSM - yet)....

All of the above is documented in multiple sources ... I don't know exactly what part of this doesn't fit your definition of fueling war in Syria, but maybe you should do some more research before declaring it laughable....Its the well known Israeli Yinon balkanisation plan for various countries in the middle east - adopted and adapted by the neocons (see Gen Wesley Clark's list of targets post 9/11) and then by Obama and Hillary.

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"The people of the United Kingdom have voted to leave the European Union.

Inevitably, there will be a period of uncertainty and adjustment following this result.

There will be no initial change in the way our people can travel, in the way our goods can move or the way our services can be sold.

And it will take some time for the United Kingdom to establish new relationships with Europe and the rest of the world.

Some market and economic volatility can be expected as this process unfolds.

But we are well prepared for this. The Treasury and the Bank of England have engaged in extensive contingency planning and the chancellor and I have been in close contact, including through the night and this morning."




Full statement on BBC News

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I really like Mark Carney's statement. I have always seen him as an extremely solid leader and his statement is sign the contingencies that he put in place should prepare UK's economy for any shocks.

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bebop View Post
Its off topic - so i'll keep it brief - but creating, training and arming Al Qaeda (not disputed in the media - MSM or otherwise), funding, training and arming ("fast and furious" guns from Libya through Turkey) ISIS (not disputed in the media - MSM or otherwise), directly enacting a policy of regime change (yet again) against an elected government in Syria (I'm not going to get into the contentious arguments of whether that regime is good or bad - that's irrelevant here) (again not disputed in the media), bombing Assads forces and the Kurds that are both fighting ISIS, instead of bombing ISIS, until the Russians stepped in and actually starting bombing ISIS, (this is widely accepted in alt media both left and right and in some, although not all of the MSM - yet)....

All of the above is documented in multiple sources ... I don't know exactly what part of this doesn't fit your definition of fueling war in Syria, but maybe you should do some more research before declaring it laughable....Its the well known Israeli Yinon balkanisation plan for various countries in the middle east - adopted and adapted by the neocons (see Gen Wesley Clark's list of targets post 9/11) and then by Obama and Hillary.

The good news is...you have a bright future in political comedy. As for real politics, not so much...

Just about everything you claim above to be true is an unsubstantiated conspiracy theory or gross distortion of the truth and the idea that none of it is disputed by the media is absurd.

I cannot argue about the merits of Brexit, but if you are so wrong on the above points, I can only assume...

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srgtroy View Post
The good news is...you have a bright future in political comedy. As for real politics, not so much...

Just about everything you claim above to be true is an unsubstantiated conspiracy theory or gross distortion of the truth and the idea that none of it is disputed by the media is absurd.

I cannot argue about the merits of Brexit, but if you are so wrong on the above points, I can only assume...

Let's keep it on topic please.


There's always the 'Off-topic' thread for anything else!

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Dangerous times.

What we are witnissing since a couple of years is the radicalisation of the political system here in Europe.
From Maoist-Communist in Greece, to Front National in France and the rise of the new far right party "AFD", just to name a few. One could continue the list..... unfortunately.
What is the cause? Anti-establishment? What is causing anti-establishment here?

Imho one reason - but not exclusively - is the european economic malaise and growing inequality.

What was the strategy to respond to this crisis apart from monetary stimulus? Austerity and structural reforms.
Well, almost everyone here in Europe was and is more or less trying to follow and copy the German way to salvation and embark on an internal devaluation path ( via reduced labour costs, called structural reforms) and increase exports and the current account surplus.

This strategy worked great for Germany. But for every current account surplus, there must be also a deficit somewhere in the world.

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Imho one reason - but not exclusively - is the european economic malaise and growing inequality.

What was the strategy to respond to this crisis apart from monetary stimulus? Austerity and structural reforms.
Well, almost everyone here in Europe was and is more or less trying to follow and copy the German way to salvation and embark on an internal devaluation path ( via reduced labour costs, called structural reforms) and increase exports and the current account surplus.

This strategy worked great for Germany. But for every current account surplus, there must be also a deficit somewhere in the world.

Good point - Germany got more then 20 billions euro trade surplus ...every month.It is easy to understand why Germany are in so good shape - while all Europe pay for it...

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The people of the UK have voted to close their borders, as the US will likely do as well. It is then quite a shame really, that the afghans, iraqis, and Syrians had no chance to vote and close their borders....instead, they my must starve to death in their camps, while they watch their children die....yet there is no sense of responsibility for this at all?

I'm a Canadian, born Christian, now atheist for the obvious reasons. The Brexit was always about the borders. Borders being overrun by a people fleeing a conflict that has been raging for decades.

There are not many good economic reasons to leave the EU. I feel for Germany, shouldering the debt of the weaker states. States that are now considering leaving the EU as well, pathetic.

This is fear, this is nationalism....almost Trump style. Disgusting display of the worst of democracy.

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xiaosi View Post
The people of the UK have voted to close their borders, as the US will likely do as well. It is then quite a shame really, that the afghans, iraqis, and Syrians had no chance to vote and close their borders....instead, they my must starve to death in their camps, while they watch their children die....yet there is no sense of responsibility for this at all?

I'm a Canadian, born Christian, now atheist for the obvious reasons. The Brexit was always about the borders. Borders being overrun by a people fleeing a conflict that has been raging for decades.

There are not many good economic reasons to leave the EU. I feel for Germany, shouldering the debt of the weaker states. States that are now considering leaving the EU as well, pathetic.

This is fear, this is nationalism....almost Trump style. Disgusting display of the worst of democracy.

Has it always been just about the borders though? And if it has, shouldn't the responsibility be shouldered by the ineffective EU's policies about managing the huge influx of refugees we have seen over the last 3 years and more?

I think Brexit is about more than just immigration though. It's a wake up call that the EU needs to rethink its strategy.

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xiaosi View Post
The people of the UK have voted to close their borders, as the US will likely do as well. It is then quite a shame really, that the afghans, iraqis, and Syrians had no chance to vote and close their borders....instead, they my must starve to death in their camps, while they watch their children die....yet there is no sense of responsibility for this at all?

I'm a Canadian, born Christian, now atheist for the obvious reasons. The Brexit was always about the borders. Borders being overrun by a people fleeing a conflict that has been raging for decades.

There are not many good economic reasons to leave the EU. I feel for Germany, shouldering the debt of the weaker states. States that are now considering leaving the EU as well, pathetic.

This is fear, this is nationalism....almost Trump style. Disgusting display of the worst of democracy.

But they're not starving to death in their camps, however bad the conditions (which are safer than in their home countries) & the sensible counter argument (made by Cameron) to Merkel's misguided open doors policy was to spend the resources greatly expanding & improving (=schools & hospitals) the refugee camps closer to the refugees homes, to which they could one day return.

Every EU state already faces huge challenges of schooling, housing, health care & employment : there is simply no room & resources for millions (& it is millions) of refugees. Let's not even consider the ethnic & religious difficulties that this also brings (unfortunately it most certainly does).

The British people being able to choose Brexit is imho a fantastic demonstration of democracy at work - and the economic reasons were never at the centre of the argument (which is why the Remain camp lost, as that's where they had to place their argument). Immigration, yes, but political autonomy first & foremost (which controls immigration).

Edit : ... & as for "poor Germany" shouldering the debt of weaker states.... Germany is the winner from the EU, by far (= billions & billions & billions). It was the very wise George Soros who said the best solution to the EU problems would be for Germany to leave (the Eurozone at least), as it's dominance benefits only itself & cripples everyone else - ironically except for the UK with its GBP (discussed in prior posts on this thread).

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Trump in Scotland speaking favorably about Brexit

"People are angry all over the world. They're angry over borders, they're angry over people coming into the country and taking over and nobody even knows who they are."

-Donald Trump

I wonder how he thinks all the Muslim people in the ME felt about "people coming into their country and taking over and nobody even knows who they are" FFS.....really??? The hypocrisy of this is just unbelievable!

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xiaosi View Post
Trump in Scotland speaking favorably about Brexit

"People are angry all over the world. They're angry over borders, they're angry over people coming into the country and taking over and nobody even knows who they are."

-Donald Trump

I wonder how he thinks all the Muslim people in the ME felt about "people coming into their country and taking over and nobody even knows who they are" FFS.....really??? The hypocrisy of this is just unbelievable!

I hope 'Brexit' won't give Trump any more leverage than he's already had.

We however need to focus on the economic and trading implications of the event here, notwithstanding my sympathy for you about the hypocrisy of his remarks.

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I hope 'Brexit' won't give Trump any more leverage than he's already had.

We however need to focus on the economic and trading implications of the event here, notwithstanding my sympathy for you about the hypocrisy of his remarks.

My feeling is isolist ideas are getting popular because only very few are getting benifits from these governments...UK proved it and US will be next in line, so Trump got boost for his ideas from Florida's incident and now BREXIT so he might have very good chance.

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A Train Ride Shows Why Brexit Is So Agonizing for Britain

nice article explaining why common people vote and what is their understanding of the situation.

To summarize: none of them had any idea of what the EU is and how it works. The most intelligent admitted it and said that they need to make research to understand the consequences but most of them focused on issues that had nothing to do with EU.

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Just heard on the squawk that today is also the annual FTSE / Russell index rebalancing which, in itself, would provide for extra market volatiliy, what with companies flowing in and out of indices.

They say that the rebalancing, if anything, can only add to the volatility currently caused by Brexit.

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Okina View Post
A Train Ride Shows Why Brexit Is So Agonizing for Britain

nice article explaining why common people vote and what is their understanding of the situation.

To summarize: none of them had any idea of what the EU is and how it works. The most intelligent admitted it and said that they need to make research to understand the consequences but most of them focused on issues that had nothing to do with EU.

What infuriates me is that already today I've heard some EU leaders say that the process of 'divorce proceeding' should start right away. This apparently in an attempt to stem the contagion to other EU countries.

"The contagion is well already underway you idiots", I would like to shout to them.

It really started with Greece for me, and how EU's "tough" stance on Greece may have hardened everybody else's view of what it really means to participate in the Union.

I was in Italy for a holiday a week ago and the distrust for the way immigration is being handled is palbable over there. I bet if they had a chance at a referendum most people there would vote for an 'out' too.




I do hope the EU realises that this must be treated like a wake up call. The entire European future is at stake.

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What infuriates me is that already today I've heard some EU leaders say that the process of 'divorce proceeding' should start right away. This apparently in an attempt to stem the contagion to other EU countries.

"The contagion is well already underway you idiots", I would like to shout to them.

It really started with Greece for me, and how EU's "tough" stance on Greece may have hardened everybody else's view of what it really means to participate in the Union.

I was in Italy for a holiday a week ago and the distrust for the way immigration is being handled is palbable over there. I bet if they had a chance at a referendum most people there would vote for an 'out' too.




I do hope the EU realises that this must be treated like a wake up call. The entire European future is at stake.

You are right the main debate all over the EU is for immigration. But immagration coming from countries outside the EU so having nothing to do with EU Shengen regulation....

What can they do about that? For the last 2 decades at last politician has sold their program in the same way we sell a soap and it had worked very well. Now they would like to have us to think lol... Look at what happen in the world Trump in the US, Le Pen in France, Brexit in UK with populist right wing etc...

I made a lot of $ with Brexit. Trading stupidity is the best hedge you can find.

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That will be interesting to see the next steps: independence for Scotland, unified Ireland?
I'll buy English printing house shares, all will be have to be renamed to Small Britain and NUK (Not Unified Kingdom) .

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You are right the main debate all over the EU is for immigration. But immagration coming from countries outside the EU so having nothing to do with EU Shengen regulation....


You are not right.Year ago Merkel says - Dear people in the middle east and Africa,come to us we will take you all !

We need to take 2 billions poor people from Asia and Africa?All them should come to Europe ?All of them are poor - most of them also are living in dangerous area.Germany itself declare that for the name of ALL Europe.Merkel says - you are part of OUR Union so you need to take people when Germany wants it.This is why people are so angry.So this is a EU issue...sorry just becouse Brussels and Berling rule now like a dictatorship.

This is HOW PEOPLE see this ... EU dont know how to deal with it,they dont react they even are not able to defend its own border's...And when some country's like Hungary try to fix it... then then say - dont do this you have no right to defend your border !

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You are right the main debate all over the EU is for immigration. But immagration coming from countries outside the EU so having nothing to do with EU Shengen regulation....

That is true but I think people's perception has been one mainly of a European Union being unable to effectively deal with the problem of refugee immigration. This perception I think is palpable both in the UK and in the rest of Europe.


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What can they do about that?

That's more of an off-topic discussion, I have moved that here.

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You are not right.Year ago Merkel says - Dear people in the middle east and Africa,come to us we will take you all !

As you state it yourself Merkel said not the EU just Merkel. Why? Because Germany need cheap labor. In the same way UK was at full employment and also needed cheap labor for outside.

In the case of UK it is finished now they will see what it is like to live in a country with a 10 15% unemployment rate.

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That will be interesting to see the next steps: independence for Scotland, unified Ireland?
I'll buy English printing house shares, all will be have to be renamed to Small Britain and NUK (Not Unified Kingdom) .


Haha, Sam - but let's just say if my fellow Scots are truly serious about another referendum, rather than just starting some political manoeuvring, I'll be amazed : the economic numbers were very marginal at best when oil was >$100. At present levels, Scotland would be bankrupt in less than one year after leaving...

Nicola and Alex were obviously drinking whisky all night...

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeyYX7Sg_rA

Good speech from Boris this morning. Edit : 6.57 on video begins the key sentence that sums it all up, really.

Quite possibly the next Prime Minister.... (much smarter than he looks).

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Okina View Post
In the case of UK it is finished now they will see what it is like to live in a country with a 10 15% unemployment rate.

You are referring to EU unemployment rates, not UK.

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Okina View Post
As you state it yourself Merkel said not the EU just Merkel. Why? Because Germany need cheap labor. In the same way UK was at full employment and also needed cheap labor for outside.

She was says that for herself ... not really.Anyway its not matter- thats what matter just right after when she see how many people come here she says that all Europe should take responsibility for HER words and decision.

All politicans - from Warsaw to Lisbon and from Athens to London are living in different world then ,,normal'' people - they make a decision but normal people pay for this.As ussual ...

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  #192 (permalink)
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeyYX7Sg_rA

Good speech from Boris this morning. Edit : 6.57 on video begins the key sentence that sums it all up, really.

Quite possibly the next Prime Minister.... (much smarter than he looks).

just watch it. Nice words obviously an intelligent guy but as usual completely empty speech, just general banalities (nothing against him I find that in most politician's speeches).

The brexit is not as concerning than the financial crisis of 2008 despite some alarming words on Reuteurs or Bloomberg this morning.
Very nice trading opportunities for us but the predictable recession in UK won't IMO affect the global markets once the volatility settle in a couple of days or weeks.

The most concerning effects will come in a delay of 1 or 2 years depending on how the UK exit has been negotiated. Obviously UK wants to benefit for the EU in terms of trade agreements and bank passport but not to pay for that. We will see 2 camps in the EU those who are pragmatic in the short terms and who wants to do "business as usual" and those who want to prevent a contagion because if you can leave but keep only the benefits why staying?

It is way too soon to have any idea about which camp will win.

My main concern is what will be the future of the EU central bank and what will happen with the billions of paper she has collected during the previous QE campaign? We speak of about 1.1 trillion $ (growing at a rate of 60B per month) here that will need to find a place in the market if EU explode... scary.

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  #193 (permalink)
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From twitter


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It's getting quite mad......




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It's getting quite mad......

Considering that the average UK Election turnout since 1945 has been below 75%, mad indeed....

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xplorer View Post
I was in Italy for a holiday a week ago and the distrust for the way immigration is being handled is palbable over there. I bet if they had a chance at a referendum most people there would vote for an 'out' too.

I recently went from England-France-Switzerland-Italy-England and was very surprised the only place I needed my passport was leaving and entering England even though Switzerland is outside the EU.

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It's getting quite mad......

...and it's getting madder


Quoting 
A petition calling for Sadiq Khan to declare London an independent state after the UK voted to quit the EU has been signed by thousands of people.

The petition's organiser James O'Malley, said the capital was "a world city" which should "remain at the heart of Europe".

Nearly 60% of people in the capital backed the Remain campaign, in stark contrast to most of the country.

The LSE's director said the vote showed how "radically different" London is.

Full article

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grausch View Post
Didn't expect this either and in hindsight, betting on Britain exiting would have been a really good risk/reward trade. If Britain did not exit, risk would have been pretty low in that there would not have been an upside shock. If Britain did exit, odds of a downside shock would have been pretty high. Thus, shorting the market would have been a good trade.

While I was fully covered with options, I did not go net short. My portfolio was constructed with probabilities in mind and not expected payoff. I guess seeing things like this before they happen is what made Soros & Druckenmiller such good traders. Something I most definitely need to work on.

I think you're right, seeing as how the market had already priced in a high probability of the UK staying in.




My take on the Soros of this world is, you need a different mindset with that kind of capital. If you're a trader that is dealing in units or even tens of contracts then your skillset needs to be predominantly about trading volume, DOM, charts and the like, with an eye to the fundamentals of course.

But if you have millions or even billions then obviously your skillset needs to be 90% fundamental analysis I think, you're not going to be bothered by intraday market swings.

Just my opinion.

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Some of my friends on FB are calling for Texit... (Texas Exit)... #comeandtakeit

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