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Brexit 101
Started:February 27th, 2016 (10:02 AM) by xplorer Views / Replies:14,586 / 465
Last Reply:November 23rd, 2016 (05:30 AM) Attachments:44

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Brexit 101

Old June 24th, 2016, 05:31 AM   #161 (permalink)
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grausch View Post
Thus, shorting the market would have been a good trade.

Not having predicted the market - I only said in my thread that the support (cloud in 1h chart) *
in the DAX future was turning to minus on Friday morning: that happened exactly.
Of course - money risk management was telling to stay at the sidelines as everything
could happen. Such action in my view is gambling and not trading.

What will happen next?
The EU stocks - especially the German 30 Dax companies - will have to react to the new
complicated situation: In short - the banks and the car makers will face a negative situation.
To the contrary the Frankfurt stock exchange will swing up.

GFIs1

* https://futures.io/trading-journals/17862-gfis1-1-dax-trade-per-day-journal-261.html#post579526
see the levels reached this morning

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Old June 24th, 2016, 05:36 AM   #162 (permalink)
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bebop View Post

...There was enough discontent and anger at anti-democratic EU control within Britain for the Brexit to have happened before the US created Al Qaeda, ISIS and fuelled the war in Syria...

The US fueled the war in Syria? lol That, my friend, is a laughable statement. Barack Obama is relentlessly pilloried by his opponents for having done jack squat in Syria, and allowing the problem to fester until it became an international migrant issue that ultimately has come back to haunt Europe. Forget establishing a safe zone by air, he did not even stand by his so called red line when Assad used chemical weapons against his own people. In fact, Obama, and by extension the United States, having been bitten by the Iraq snake, did absolutely zilch in Syria, irrespective of whether that was actually the correct policy to follow or not. But one thing they most definitely did not do is fuel that war.

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Old June 24th, 2016, 05:43 AM   #163 (permalink)
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GFIs1 View Post
Not having predicted the market - I only said in my thread that the support (cloud in 1h chart) *
in the DAX future was turning to minus on Friday morning: that happened exactly.
Of course - money risk management was telling to stay at the sidelines as everything
could happen. Such action in my view is gambling and not trading.

In order to control risk, the way I would have done the trade would have been with layered multi-strike puts and put-spreads in certain stocks / indices and against the GBP. The cost of the transaction would have been low, risk would have been limited and the reward would have been decent.

Done this way, I do not consider it that risky, merely opportunistic. However, doing this type of trade being short futures would be very risky (due to heightened volatility) and you would need very wide stops together with smaller size.

I tend to quite frequently fall into the trap of wanting to protect my capital, rather than trying to maximise gains on it. In hindsight, this represented an opportunity for decent gains with a very specific catalyst. I could have been net short, but decided the odds of Britain actually leaving were too low. Thus, my opinion was more important than making money. Oh well, I guess we live and learn.

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Old June 24th, 2016, 05:47 AM   #164 (permalink)
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Thank-you UK : we're out :)

Suggesting that the US had a role in Brexit appears ludicrous to me, especially given Obama's recent very supportive (and imho interfering) comments towards David Cameron at Downing Street.

On the other hand, I'd bet Jean-Claude Junker and other unelected bureaucrats would love to turn the clock back to last February and give Cameron far more of what he wanted to keep the UK in. Imho it was that failure c/w Merkel's foolish misjudgement of the migrant crisis (which will be her undoing, which is a shame as she's been by far the best EU leader of the last decade) that drove the UK to vote out.

It's interesting that all the headlines are "Pound and FTSE plunge !", when the Euro & other stock markets are plunging just as much.

The pound will recover : it's the Euro that's going to USD parity.

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Old June 24th, 2016, 05:58 AM   #165 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO
There are 250 exterior banks located in London to have a connection seat to
EU.
Of course most of those will need to move to another country soon.

GFIs1

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Old June 24th, 2016, 06:22 AM   #166 (permalink)
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srgtroy View Post
The US fueled the war in Syria? lol That, my friend, is a laughable statement. Barack Obama is relentlessly pilloried by his opponents for having done jack squat in Syria, and allowing the problem to fester until it became an international migrant issue that ultimately has come back to haunt Europe. Forget establishing a safe zone by air, he did not even stand by his so called red line when Assad used chemical weapons against his own people. In fact, Obama, and by extension the United States, having been bitten by the Iraq snake, did absolutely zilch in Syria, irrespective of whether that was actually the correct policy to follow or not. But one thing they most definitely did not do is fuel that war.

Its off topic - so i'll keep it brief - but creating, training and arming Al Qaeda (not disputed in the media - MSM or otherwise), funding, training and arming ("fast and furious" guns from Libya through Turkey) ISIS (not disputed in the media - MSM or otherwise), directly enacting a policy of regime change (yet again) against an elected government in Syria (I'm not going to get into the contentious arguments of whether that regime is good or bad - that's irrelevant here) (again not disputed in the media), bombing Assads forces and the Kurds that are both fighting ISIS, instead of bombing ISIS, until the Russians stepped in and actually starting bombing ISIS, (this is widely accepted in alt media both left and right and in some, although not all of the MSM - yet)....

All of the above is documented in multiple sources ... I don't know exactly what part of this doesn't fit your definition of fueling war in Syria, but maybe you should do some more research before declaring it laughable....Its the well known Israeli Yinon balkanisation plan for various countries in the middle east - adopted and adapted by the neocons (see Gen Wesley Clark's list of targets post 9/11) and then by Obama and Hillary.

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Old June 24th, 2016, 06:27 AM   #167 (permalink)
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EU referendum: Statement from Bank of England governor Mark Carney

"The people of the United Kingdom have voted to leave the European Union.

Inevitably, there will be a period of uncertainty and adjustment following this result.

There will be no initial change in the way our people can travel, in the way our goods can move or the way our services can be sold.

And it will take some time for the United Kingdom to establish new relationships with Europe and the rest of the world.

Some market and economic volatility can be expected as this process unfolds.

But we are well prepared for this. The Treasury and the Bank of England have engaged in extensive contingency planning and the chancellor and I have been in close contact, including through the night and this morning."




Full statement on BBC News

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Old June 24th, 2016, 06:33 AM   #168 (permalink)
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I really like Mark Carney's statement. I have always seen him as an extremely solid leader and his statement is sign the contingencies that he put in place should prepare UK's economy for any shocks.

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Old June 24th, 2016, 06:38 AM   #169 (permalink)
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bebop View Post
Its off topic - so i'll keep it brief - but creating, training and arming Al Qaeda (not disputed in the media - MSM or otherwise), funding, training and arming ("fast and furious" guns from Libya through Turkey) ISIS (not disputed in the media - MSM or otherwise), directly enacting a policy of regime change (yet again) against an elected government in Syria (I'm not going to get into the contentious arguments of whether that regime is good or bad - that's irrelevant here) (again not disputed in the media), bombing Assads forces and the Kurds that are both fighting ISIS, instead of bombing ISIS, until the Russians stepped in and actually starting bombing ISIS, (this is widely accepted in alt media both left and right and in some, although not all of the MSM - yet)....

All of the above is documented in multiple sources ... I don't know exactly what part of this doesn't fit your definition of fueling war in Syria, but maybe you should do some more research before declaring it laughable....Its the well known Israeli Yinon balkanisation plan for various countries in the middle east - adopted and adapted by the neocons (see Gen Wesley Clark's list of targets post 9/11) and then by Obama and Hillary.

The good news is...you have a bright future in political comedy. As for real politics, not so much...

Just about everything you claim above to be true is an unsubstantiated conspiracy theory or gross distortion of the truth and the idea that none of it is disputed by the media is absurd.

I cannot argue about the merits of Brexit, but if you are so wrong on the above points, I can only assume...

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Old June 24th, 2016, 06:41 AM   #170 (permalink)
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srgtroy View Post
The good news is...you have a bright future in political comedy. As for real politics, not so much...

Just about everything you claim above to be true is an unsubstantiated conspiracy theory or gross distortion of the truth and the idea that none of it is disputed by the media is absurd.

I cannot argue about the merits of Brexit, but if you are so wrong on the above points, I can only assume...

Let's keep it on topic please.


There's always the 'Off-topic' thread for anything else!

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