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Brexit 101
Started:February 27th, 2016 (10:02 AM) by xplorer Views / Replies:14,682 / 470
Last Reply:16 Hours Ago (05:24 PM) Attachments:44

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Brexit 101

Old June 23rd, 2016, 06:54 PM   #121 (permalink)
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I'd be the last person to argue that national governments and their half-assed implementations of democracy in the UK, other european countries or the US are perfect, free of corruption or political shenanigans. That already limited semblence of democratic representation and political accountability has been steadily eroded for decades as the media has been silent and silenced to a greater and greater extent. I agree with Chomsky - elections in the US (and elsewhere) are stage-managed events where the perception of choice is really only the difference between two flavours of the same gruel. That is the essence of the global-elite plan that goes back to at least (and probably much further than) the Anglo-American Establishment of the late 19th century that Prof Carroll Quigley wrote about in the late 60s in Tragedy & Hope, with the formation of the Rhodes scholars, the Rockefeller, Carnegie (etc) so-called philanthropic foundations, the intelligence services (etc) in order to control every aspect of society. As JD Rockefeller so infamously said "competition is a sin". And that brings us full circle to the EU commission corporate cartel.

But there's still a difference between voting for political representation that has the capacity, if not the will or the wherewithall in the majority of cases, to enact change for the benefit of contituents, and the current EU politburo. The US Congress is most of the way to the same situation through the excessive influence of corporate and foreign government financing, but it hasn't yet reached the total anti-democratic level of the EU. But its close. And while that is still the case - in any country - there's still the opportunity to change the gruel for something more palatable.

I agree with most of it except I will reverse this sentence : "The US Congress is most of the way to the same situation through the excessive influence of corporate and foreign government financing, but it hasn't yet reached the total anti-democratic level of the EU. "

When you are implementing regulations that affect lots of different countries with different situations and problems what we can call the regular "democratic" process may be not perceived. But if we take actual examples the EU has taken very courageous measures in the global interest of the population and measures that were fiercely defended by powerful lobby (and yes they also took a lot of stupid one). Like interdiction of some pesticides, regulation of the use of genetically modified agricultural products etc... Those subjects have really hurt very powerful corporations. We don't see that in North America, here what is good for the business, the population must live with it.

I had several businesses in Europ and yes when you want to produce something you have to comply with 100 regulations vs maybe 1 or 2 in the US. But 90% of those regulations state that : you can not use this or that component because it could have a negative impact on the population or the environment or you can not use this or that commercial practice because it could be misleading for the consumer. So at the end I am also a consumer and I appreciate that.

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Old June 23rd, 2016, 06:54 PM   #122 (permalink)
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Sure but why would that make a difference? There will be people in both camps that, if it rains, won't have been bothered to go and vote. There will also be people determined to vote no matter what. Again that should apply to both camps.

I'm not sure I buy the weather argument.

It was not intended to be a very serious observation, not much to buy just noting a randomising effect on a very tightly contested poll.

If rain was a symmetric influence across the geography of the land I'd agree but I made the point about regional and demographic bias?

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Old June 23rd, 2016, 07:06 PM   #123 (permalink)
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Rory View Post
It was not intended to be a very serious observation, not much to buy just noting a randomising effect on a very tightly contested poll.

If rain was a symmetric influence across the geography of the land I'd agree but I made the point about regional and demographic bias?

No worries... I think I get what you say... you're suggesting that, given older people are the ones who tend to want to leave, they might have been more affected by the weather and in that case just stay home?

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Old June 23rd, 2016, 07:10 PM   #124 (permalink)
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Okina View Post
I agree with most of it except I will reverse this sentence : "The US Congress is most of the way to the same situation through the excessive influence of corporate and foreign government financing, but it hasn't yet reached the total anti-democratic level of the EU. "

When you are implementing regulations that affect lots of different countries with different situations and problems what we can call the regular "democratic" process may be not perceived. But if we take actual examples the EU has taken very courageous measures in the global interest of the population and measures that were fiercely defended by powerful lobby (and yes they also took a lot of stupid one). Like interdiction of some pesticides, regulation of the use of genetically modified agricultural products etc... Those subjects have really hurt very powerful corporations. We don't see that in North America, here what is good for the business, the population must live with it.

You can be sure that regulation against one type of pesticide and its associated lobbyists is due to another pesticide and its lobbyists paying more. And they always leave open an export route for any products they're embarassed into banning. If the commision truly had the humanitarian interests you speak of, they wouldn't ban infected blood products (only after widespread outrage) without also enabling the same products to be exported to other countries. Nothing can effect the bottom line...

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Old June 23rd, 2016, 07:10 PM   #125 (permalink)
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Old June 23rd, 2016, 07:13 PM   #126 (permalink)
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bebop View Post
I'd be the last person to argue that national governments and their half-assed implementations of democracy in the UK, other european countries or the US are perfect, free of corruption or political shenanigans. That already limited semblence of democratic representation and political accountability has been steadily eroded for decades as the media has been silent and silenced to a greater and greater extent. I agree with Chomsky - elections in the US (and elsewhere) are stage-managed events where the perception of choice is really only the difference between two flavours of the same gruel. That is the essence of the global-elite plan that goes back to at least (and probably much further than) the Anglo-American Establishment of the late 19th century that Prof Carroll Quigley wrote about in the late 60s in Tragedy & Hope, with the formation of the Rhodes scholars, the Rockefeller, Carnegie (etc) so-called philanthropic foundations, the intelligence services (etc) in order to control every aspect of society. As JD Rockefeller so infamously said "competition is a sin". And that brings us full circle to the EU commission corporate cartel.

But there's still a difference between voting for political representation that has the capacity, if not the will or the wherewithall in the majority of cases, to enact change for the benefit of contituents, and the current EU politburo. The US Congress is most of the way to the same situation through the excessive influence of corporate and foreign government financing, but it hasn't yet reached the total anti-democratic level of the EU. But its close. And while that is still the case - in any country - there's still the opportunity to change the gruel for something more palatable.

I think we are generally in agreement, just got out of different sides of the bed on the veracity of a few points.

I don't believe the EU functions as you do in a purely un-elected politburo process. Its not a digital thought for me, the governance framework is.. peculiar?.. and needs to be looked at but repair is possible is my analysis. "total anti-democratic" is not how I see it, I feel its closer to bureaucratically constipated and needs appropriate treatment.

I can say that nobody I know in Europe was ever told by an elected official when they had cancer to the effect "sorry you can't afford to live, I'll pray for you" as happened to one of my best friends in the US. His insurance company found a loophole way to deny cover mid-treatment of chemo and he went to his congressman.

The US does influence Europe and vice versa. Idealistically I would like to see the US benefit from seeing it done right.


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Old June 23rd, 2016, 07:39 PM   #127 (permalink)
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No worries... I think I get what you say... you're suggesting that, given older people are the ones who tend to want to leave, they might have been more affected by the weather and in that case just stay home?

Yes or the S.E. including London is significantly Remain and there was severe weather as opposed more Murdoch reading parts of the North. I'm guessing North though I think all my friends in Wiltshire are voting Leave (yeah.. I lived on a farm ok )

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Old June 23rd, 2016, 07:52 PM   #128 (permalink)
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Watching BBC. Very very early but does it seem like the expected stay vote area's are coming in with a lower than expected majority and the leave expected area's are higher majority than expected? Saying that USDGBP is ticking up not down.

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Old June 23rd, 2016, 08:03 PM   #129 (permalink)
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I am watching the poll estimation results in live with my CL chart. I guess it is the same with FX and even more accurate.

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Old June 23rd, 2016, 08:09 PM   #130 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Watching BBC. Very very early but does it seem like the expected stay vote area's are coming in with a lower than expected majority and the leave expected area's are higher majority than expected? Saying that USDGBP is ticking up not down.

Newcastle remain 51/49 vs expected 60/40 ish.
BBC talking a lot about the postal vote which is mostly older people and hence mostly leave.
GBPUSD now down to 1.484

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