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Brexit 101
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Brexit 101

  #111 (permalink)
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bebop View Post
With Cable up over 800 pips since last thursday (can't think why that date would be important...) - I think a lot of bets have already been placed...

The steady stream of online and tel polls all say the same thing - 51-49 for remain...

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/745956456130813952?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

There are no exit polls. I remember reading a while back that the US watchdog for foreign elections has a policy of declaring any result that is more than 2% variant from the exit polls as fraudulent. But there are no exit polls...

My broker (we chat sometimes) was of the opinion the smart money was on remain. Of course he sounds exactly like Mr Chow from the Hangover so it could be a fake-out. (just to add, he was talking very generally over a week ago from industry news, not insider!)

There are exit polls taken but they are not published as this is illegal while the polls are open.

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  #112 (permalink)
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Well the huge currency move yesterday implies at least to me that the big money is thinking stay.

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  #113 (permalink)
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BenG View Post
I don't know why anyone would like to live as if all of what they do and or are allowed to do is being regulated by someone they don't know, have no control over and can't elect or change in anyway.

I totally agree Ben. The sad fact is that its been sold to the people as a democratic institution when in reality its modelled on a soviet style top-down control system. My friends from Russia, Estonia, Poland and Hungary say they can't believe the people don't realise this, but its very cleverly hidden by the smokescreen of a european parliament.


BenG View Post
Also I've noted from the remain party that this issue of democracy is largely overshadowed as if it's not important.

I watched the final BBC debate - and the three key issues - that they decided upon for the debate were
1) economy, 2) immigration and 3) Britain's place in the world. Nothing whatsover about democracy and parliamentary representation, or the key differences between the UK parliamentary process and the EU lack of representation or accountability. So the key issue was just completely ignored.



BenG View Post
I really like the way some members have turned the question upside down. Would your country like to join. Any sensible country wouldn't imho.

As the Swiss Foreign Minister said last week, shortly after their parliament retracted their bid to join - Only a complete idiot would wish to join the EU now!

Its a shame the people are so heavily lied to and have had the crap scared out of them.

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  #114 (permalink)
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Rory View Post
My broker (we chat sometimes) was of the opinion the smart money was on remain.

I should think so Rory - after an 800 pt rally and cable sitting at the highs of the year! I wouldn't be surprised to see some shenanigans in the wee hours of the morning with an unoficial poll or 2 suggesting Leave have won, or one of the judiciously timed Reuters misprints - Woops did we say Leave - we meant to say Remain...



Rory View Post
There are exit polls taken but they are not published as this is illegal while the polls are open.

True - there are several unofficial ones, but there are no official exit polls.
Just as an aside - I read a report last week about the use of exit polls in the US democratic primaries. In the states that had them - Sanders beat Clinton by 65-35. In the states where there were no official exit polls (where coincidentally the largest delegates were up for grabs..) - Clinton beat Sanders - 51-49
Just as an aside...

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  #115 (permalink)
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Reminds me of the Scottish vote. I think remain will win. General population is more comfortable with the devil they know then exploring the unknown.

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  #116 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
Reminds me of the Scottish vote. I think remain will win. General population is more comfortable with the devil they know then exploring the unknown.

Especialy when the unknown is portrayed as the precipice to a giant gaping vortex descending into the bowels of hell...

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  #117 (permalink)
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bebop View Post
I should think so Rory - after an 800 pt rally and cable sitting at the highs of the year! I wouldn't be surprised to see some shenanigans in the wee hours of the morning with an unoficial poll or 2 suggesting Leave have won, or one of the judiciously timed Reuters misprints - Woops did we say Leave - we meant to say Remain...


True - there are several unofficial ones, but there are no official exit polls.
Just as an aside - I read a report last week about the use of exit polls in the US democratic primaries. In the states that had them - Sanders beat Clinton by 65-35. In the states where there were no official exit polls (where coincidentally the largest delegates were up for grabs..) - Clinton beat Sanders - 51-49
Just as an aside...

Yes, I don't know the official monitoring arrangement today but sanity check monitoring is always done by both sides and probably some independent body.

The US is an oligarchy (you know the research I'm sure) but Gerrymandering is legal (when its made legal) and part of the political process. We never really moved past timocracy IMHO.

Notice how Noam was strikingly younger when he said this about manufactured consent:


A tremendous amount of the stuff Europe is blameworthy of is the fault of successive national governments and they ain't getting smarter, braver or better looking.

But few even understand the difference between a democratic republic and a true direct democracy (I think only part? of Switzerland is a true democracy). So if they make no effort.. Maybe online voting has a place but personally I'm waiting until the singularity so we can have our own manufactured god fix it all for us

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  #118 (permalink)
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Just in case you haven't had the crap sufficiently scared out of you...

On the morning of the referendum....in the free newspaper handed out to all commuters in the capital...

Eu Referendum: Brexit could threaten future series of Game Of Thrones | Metro News

gimme a break...

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  #119 (permalink)
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Rory View Post
Yes, I don't know the official monitoring arrangement today but sanity check monitoring is always done by both sides and probably some independent body.

The US is an oligarchy (you know the research I'm sure) but Gerrymandering is legal (when its made legal) and part of the political process. We never really moved past timocracy IMHO.

Notice how Noam was strikingly younger when he said this about manufactured consent:


A tremendous amount of the stuff Europe is blameworthy of is the fault of successive national governments and they ain't getting smarter, braver or better looking.

But few even understand the difference between a democratic republic and a true direct democracy (I think only part? of Switzerland is a true democracy). So if they make no effort.. Maybe online voting has a place but personally I'm waiting until the singularity so we can have our own manufactured god fix it all for us

I'd be the last person to argue that national governments and their half-assed implementations of democracy in the UK, other european countries or the US are perfect, free of corruption or political shenanigans. That already limited semblence of democratic representation and political accountability has been steadily eroded for decades as the media has been silent and silenced to a greater and greater extent. I agree with Chomsky - elections in the US (and elsewhere) are stage-managed events where the perception of choice is really only the difference between two flavours of the same gruel. That is the essence of the global-elite plan that goes back to at least (and probably much further than) the Anglo-American Establishment of the late 19th century that Prof Carroll Quigley wrote about in the late 60s in Tragedy & Hope, with the formation of the Rhodes scholars, the Rockefeller, Carnegie (etc) so-called philanthropic foundations, the intelligence services (etc) in order to control every aspect of society. As JD Rockefeller so infamously said "competition is a sin". And that brings us full circle to the EU commission corporate cartel.

But there's still a difference between voting for political representation that has the capacity, if not the will or the wherewithall in the majority of cases, to enact change for the benefit of contituents, and the current EU politburo. The US Congress is most of the way to the same situation through the excessive influence of corporate and foreign government financing, but it hasn't yet reached the total anti-democratic level of the EU. But its close. And while that is still the case - in any country - there's still the opportunity to change the gruel for something more palatable.

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  #120 (permalink)
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Rory View Post
Well it would require back-testing however we don't have enough sample data for this kind of vote.

Generally however bad weather has a track record of depressing voter turnout as lovely days benefit. Say London was predominantly stay however there was severe weather locally and not in a populous leave region it could affect the count significantly.

Also the weather effects optimism/pessimism though I could not make a call on this

On a narrow margin simple stay/leave ballot the effect may be meaningful. In a proportional representation type general election ballot I'd expect to see little statistical significance.


SMCJB View Post
I gather due to flooding some poll stations are closed and others are barely accessible. If it's that close something like that could change everything.

Sure but why would that make a difference? There will be people in both camps that, if it rains, won't have been bothered to go and vote. There will also be people determined to vote no matter what. Again that should apply to both camps.

I'm not sure I buy the weather argument.

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