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Brexit 101
Started: by xplorer Views / Replies:16,006 / 476
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Brexit 101

  #101 (permalink)
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I don't know why anyone would like to live as if all of what they do and or are allowed to do is being regulated by someone they don't know, have no control over and can't elect or change in anyway. Thats if all of Futures.IO members and their affairs are being regulated by some unknown person to any of us. Who tells us what we can trade, how we should trade, how much of our earnings should go to other members, how much we should receive from them, who we're allowed to date, how much we're allowed to spend, how much tax we pay, regardless of whether any of this is actually in our best interest.

I'm a Dutch citizen living in the UK so this could potentially impact me, yet I've told my wife to vote leave (I obviously can't vote here), as all members state have no real democratic rule whatsoever.

Regardless of how everything is being effected right after the vote such as the markets, economy, immigration etc, the above is what is most important. Even if nothing were to change for the next 15 years, when it does change what then? It will be too little too late to do something productive about it then. If the Netherlands where to get a vote it would most definitely out without a doubt. Also I've noted from the remain party that this issue of democracy is largely overshadowed as if it's not important.

I really like the way some members have turned the question upside down. Would your country like to join. Any sensible country wouldn't imho.

I would think that the end result will be very close, but as most people don't like uncertainty I can only imagine the remain might just about win. I hope leave wins though, but we shall see the end result soon.

Best of wise decision making to all UK members here on the forum

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  #102 (permalink)
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Croissant the line: UK law foils plan to hand out pastry with pro-EU messages


Quoting 
An arcane British electoral law has thwarted an attempt by Parisians to hand out croissants with pro-EU messages to London voters.

A group of friends from France and the UK had planned to give out 600 croissants to commuters outside King’s Cross station on Wednesday, accompanied by postcards carrying pro-EU messages written by people in France.

But the Electoral Commission said Operation Croissant was illegal under a law that prevents the use of food, drink or entertainment to influence voting.

The croissants were baked in Paris on Wednesday morning and transported to London on the first Eurostar train of the day. But the plan to give them out to commuters was thwarted when police intervened.

A statement from the organisers said they had never intended to “buy” votes: “It was conceived as an act of friendship, proximity and goodwill – an act of breaking bread.

“Unfortunately, as we discovered today, when we were contacted by the Metropolitan police homicide and major crimes command, we cannot do that. We were unaware that mixing ‘meat, drink, entertainment’ with a message of any kind before an election can be an infraction of the law – this is totally at odds with the gesture we wanted to show, so have adapted our plans accordingly.

“While it was never our aim to buy votes with croissants, we are happy to fall on our baguettes and stick to the right side of British law.”

Give it up for the worst pun of the century.... in the title

Full article

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  #103 (permalink)
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So the news I'm reading is saying 51-49 stay. Sterling isn't reacting either way. Anybody have any other perspective?

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  #104 (permalink)
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Croissant the line. Worthy of the original Batman TV show.


SMCJB View Post
So the news I'm reading is saying 51-49 stay. Sterling isn't reacting either way. Anybody have any other perspective?

Sterling should be stable until the numbers start to come out as the UK has strict news embargoes while polls are open. Edit: I would pay to see US networks bite their tongues haha.

From BBC site:
"Strict reporting restrictions on polling day
Posted at
07:08
You will have noticed that our coverage of the EU referendum is limited today. That's because the BBC - like other broadcasters - is not allowed to report on the campaigning while the polls are open.

That's to ensure that the BBC's output cannot be seen as influencing the ballot while the polls are open.

* The restrictions started today at 00:30 BST and will end at 22:00 BST when voting closes.

* Between 00:30 BST and 22:00 BST there will be no coverage of any of the issues relating to the referendum campaign on TV, radio or bbc.co.uk.

* Subjects which have been contested or are part of the campaign in any way - or other controversial matters relating to the EU or the referendum - must not be covered on polling day.

What can the BBC report?

* Uncontroversial factual accounts such as the appearance of politicians and others at polling stations or the weather.

* The practicalities such as when the polls are open, the wording of the question and expectations of when the result may be known are allowed.

* The BBC's online sites will not have to remove archived reports.

What can't the BBC report?

* The BBC stops short of actually encouraging people to vote.

* While the polls are open, it is a criminal offence for anyone, not just broadcasters, to publish anything about the way in which people have voted in the referendum, where that is based on information given by voters after they have voted.

* The BBC can't report anything emerging from exit polls (which, by definition, are asking people how they actually voted), although the broadcasters have not commissioned any exit polls for the referendum.

* No opinion poll on any issue relating to the referendum can be published by broadcasters until after the polls have closed.


Last edited by Rory; June 23rd, 2016 at 01:48 PM.
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  #105 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
So the news I'm reading is saying 51-49 stay. Sterling isn't reacting either way. Anybody have any other perspective?

My squawk service anticipated it would not be until 3-4 am (UK time) that the situation should start telling who's won. I don't think many people are placing bets before then...

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  #106 (permalink)
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With such a tight race and strong regional/age bias it will likely be decided by the weather.

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  #107 (permalink)
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Rory View Post
With such a tight race and strong regional/age bias it will likely be decided by the weather.

Why though?

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  #108 (permalink)
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xplorer View Post
Why though?

Well it would require back-testing however we don't have enough sample data for this kind of vote.

Generally however bad weather has a track record of depressing voter turnout as lovely days benefit. Say London was predominantly stay however there was severe weather locally and not in a populous leave region it could affect the count significantly.

Also the weather effects optimism/pessimism though I could not make a call on this

On a narrow margin simple stay/leave ballot the effect may be meaningful. In a proportional representation type general election ballot I'd expect to see little statistical significance.

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  #109 (permalink)
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xplorer View Post
My squawk service anticipated it would not be until 3-4 am (UK time) that the situation should start telling who's won. I don't think many people are placing bets before then...


With Cable up over 800 pips since last thursday (can't think why that date would be important...) - I think a lot of bets have already been placed...

The steady stream of online and tel polls all say the same thing - 51-49 for remain...

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/745956456130813952?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

There are no exit polls. I remember reading a while back that the US watchdog for foreign elections has a policy of declaring any result that is more than 2% variant from the exit polls as fraudulent. But there are no exit polls...

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  #110 (permalink)
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xplorer View Post
Why though?

I gather due to flooding some poll stations are closed and others are barely accessible. If it's that close something like that could change everything.

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