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The trand is retracing or change direction?


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The trand is retracing or change direction?

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  #1 (permalink)
Israel
 
Experience: Beginner
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Hello guys

I want to ask how can i know if the trade is retracing or its change his direction
what is the best way to discover it?

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  #3 (permalink)
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liorzuk View Post
Hello guys

I want to ask how can i know if the trade is retracing or its change his direction
what is the best way to discover it?

hi liorzuk, perhaps this can help


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  #4 (permalink)
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liorzuk View Post
I want to ask how can i know if the trade is retracing or its change his direction


This question is a kind of "holy grail" of trading.

If you can discover a reliable way to judge it, you'll be beyond just rich. The reality, of course, is that there isn't and can't be a completely reliable way - it's inevitably a probabilistic question of what proportion of the time you can be right.

There are countless different methods of trying to judge it. For me, though I could never attempt to summarize them in a forum-post, "bar pattern techniques" of the types discussed and taught by Joe Ross and Al Brooks, and particularly patterns of highs/lows, seem far more reliable than anything else.

In case that sounds even more vague than most of my observations, I'll offer one specific example (I think it originally came from Joe Ross): in a small, intraday trend, if there's a bar which is very significantly longer than its three or four predecessors and closes within the top 10% of its length, then I'll tend to close my long position at the first subsequent bar with a close lower than that bar's close, in the belief that there may be a change of trend-direction, or at least an end to the current trend-direction for the short-term, rather than simply a retracement/correction. And the converse for short trades, of course. Like all these things, it's no trivial matter at all to prove, but I'm confident that I benefit, overall, from doing this. I think Wyckoff-style traders, and perhaps some others, refer to this phenomenon by some technical name - it might be something like "exhaustion climax" - but I can never remember the terminology for these things.

For those who trade from candles instead of from bars, there are also many specific "candle-patterns" from which people try to judge the probabilities of this. But be clear that it is a probability-function. And a "holy grail".

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  #5 (permalink)
Paris France
 
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Hi !


I have to confess I'm French and my English isn't so fluent. But I will try to be clear.

I use a Bulkowski Trading Like System to trade market price action. I couldn't tell you what will be the future trend of ES1!. But there is a small Flag pattern on Energy Sector Fund (XLE) at the high of a Double Bottom low not confirmed yet. It could be a great fuel to motivate a ES1! breakout confirmation of Double Bottom Low.

Be careful, only a ES1! daily close above 1940 will be a great pattern confirmation. It's a risky trade but the reward looks strong. Don't forget to trade only 2% of your capital and place a stop just below your last low to protect your capital.



Have a nice day !
Best Regards,
M.

PS : Sorry I was unauthorized to publish images here.

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  #6 (permalink)
Paris France
 
Experience: Beginner
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Broker: CQG
Trading: ES1!, CL1!, DY1!
 
Pharmakon's Avatar
 
Posts: 45 since Jan 2016
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Hi !


I hope everything is alright for you.


E-MINI S&P 500 closed above 1940. Nice Risk/Reward trade. Scalpers may be ready for this one :

1918 Stop
1989 TP1


Best Regards,
M.

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