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Here is a chart from Dec 30 2015
I'm trying to understand why the market sold off with little volume at the close, I was expecting it to sell off but not wiht little volume. Through out that day the buys accumulated huge amount and defended that position with huge contracts. As the day came to end I realise they will sell off a bit , but I expected to see a lot of volume to my surprise there was no volume but solid off with ease. why how .. thank you
Also .. should I expected those buyer to be there tomorrow?
if there going to be there, would they liquid there position at the open?
looking at the chart what should i expect going in tommorrow.?
Last edited by lexxmd; December 21st, 2015 at 12:36 PM.
Everything is just a probability. To your surprise just means that your higher probability guess (if it is even that) just happens to not happen in this single occurrence.
Also your commentary of what insto's are and aren't doing after the fact is just a best guess based on your own assumptions, if that - things almost never pan out the way they are "suppose" to. If you are basing the assumption the market is suppose to sell off on higher volume based on your earlier assumptions of insto activity, then the chances are you are wrong in your prior assumptions.
However, having said that, the insto buyers you assumed in your commentary could be OTF buyers who aren't interested in closing the position at EOD, so it's the intraday traders who are taking profits, which would account for low volume selling with nobody to defend it.
Any commentary on what will happen tomorrow will be unreliable. Unless you have back tested this scenario and achieved a statistically significant result about what will happen the day after, any replies by anyone based on intuition about what will happen tomorrow will be just a coin flip.
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Seriously though, price can move very far on little volume if bids or offers are simply pulling instead of actually trading. Just look at what happens in ES during a big news announcement when it gets slippery.
market understanding x you = results
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