Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?

November 21st, 2015, 08:48 PM

tigertrader

...the above players come into the market at the same time, in the same way, both when they get in the market and when they get out, and the result is that the market's herd behavior has become institutionalized. the other result is that the market becomes insensitive to price and does not respect levels commonly believed to represent support and resistance...

See that's where it gets interesting...On an individual basis the players are making their decisions where to get out based on their own criteria, thus obvious and popular levels of support and resistance are not really a factor for them. The question is whether there is ultimately a pattern here as seen on a collective basis, as exemplified in the Wisdom of Crowds video a few pages back...but perhaps in a slightly more complex way.

Again, I never said just slap one retracement down and call it a day...

The issue is whether there is, to quote @ratfink's artful description, "a mathematics of fear and greed"?

November 21st, 2015, 09:17 PM

srgtroy

See that's where it gets interesting...On an individual basis the players are making their decisions where to get out based on their own criteria, thus obvious and popular levels of support and resistance are not really a factor for them. The question is whether there is ultimately a pattern here as seen on a collective basis, as exemplified in the Wisdom of Crowds video a few pages back...but perhaps in a slightly more complex way.

Again, I never said just slap one retracement down and call it a day...

The issue is whether there is, to quote @ratfink's artful description, "a mathematics of fear and greed"?

the whole fear and greed thing is a tad overplayed and anachronistic. machines don't have feelings. a different game is being played everyday, sometimes intra-day. as soon as you figure what's going on, the game changes. if it stayed the same no one would make money.

November 21st, 2015, 09:29 PM

tigertrader

machines don't have feelings...

Currently at least, the machines are just an extension of the people that program them. They can do things faster and more precisely, and maybe overall with less emotion, but humans aren't completely out of the picture...yet, at least.

Anyway, maybe I will give my hand at trading correlations soon. I have a feeling that between me and you, we will make a fortune

November 21st, 2015, 09:51 PM

srgtroy

Currently at least, the machines are just an extension of the people that program them. They can do things faster and more precisely, and maybe overall with less emotion, but humans aren't completely out of the picture...yet, at least.

Anyway, maybe I will give my hand at trading correlations soon. I have a feeling that between me and you, we will make a fortune

it really isn't that complicated

you want build profit expectation

you accomplish this by

catching high-impact trades (not random swings)

you also want to

have enough on, but not too many on

and, you want to

hold onto the trade and lever up

most importantly,

as your account size grows you want to scale your size

problem is

most traders go for the high probability, low impact trades

what they make during market consolidations, they lose during trends

because they cannot distinguish random swings from the initial stages of a trend

they don't have enough on, or they have too many on

they don't hold onto their trades, nor do the add

and they keep their size constant

November 23rd, 2015, 07:59 AM

Happy Fibonacci Day

FWIW

November 23rd, 2015, 05:01 PM

This 16 year-old has an IndieGoGo to make Fibonacci Blocks. Apparently it will make your children smarter. It's the next "Baby Einstein"

"Play with the same golden proportions used by Michelangelo & Da Vinci. Inspire the genius in you!"

https://www.indiegogo.com:443/projects/fibonacci-blocks-fun-with-phi-the-golden-ratio

December 6th, 2015, 05:30 PM

@tigertrader, when did you stop using fibs in your trading?

Was it a natural progression of trader development or did you one day simply stop believing/using them or maybe both?

December 6th, 2015, 11:05 PM

tigertrader

it really isn't that complicated

you want build profit expectation

you accomplish this by

catching high-impact trades (not random swings)

you also want to

have enough on, but not too many on

and, you want to

hold onto the trade and lever up

most importantly,

as your account size grows you want to scale your size

problem is

most traders go for the high probability, low impact trades

what they make during market consolidations, they lose during trends

because they cannot distinguish random swings from the initial stages of a trend

they don't have enough on, or they have too many on

they don't hold onto their trades, nor do the add

and they keep their size constant

This is a great recommendation.
We should use a combination of this in our automated EA's

December 10th, 2015, 12:59 AM

Tymbeline

Do you think indicators help people to do that more than prices do?

I'm thinking they're the same. Whether you use indicators or just price. It can provide a non-subjective criteria. e.g. Price is either > $100 or it isn't. Price either touched $101.25 or it did not. etc.

Finding the right level of detail to suit a person's mentality is probably the biggest factor

December 17th, 2015, 05:58 PM

@srgtroy

Do you have anything you would like to say today?

Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?

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Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?