Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?

November 8th, 2015, 01:57 PM

srgtroy

Gotta run, but leaving y'all with this:

I knew deep down you loved a good tinfoil hat theory...

November 8th, 2015, 04:05 PM

tigertrader

an attempt to provoke thought.

as a leveraged trader, one makes short-term decisions/trades, manages the risk/ keeps draw-downs to manageable levels and occasionally turns short-term winning positions into longer ones. that being said, the market and its past is identical for all observers. yet, the market and the future are understood uniquely by each trader. no matter how crude or refined a method one follows in ascertaining the likelihood of change, it still boils down to surviving against one's own incomplete intellect, a misfired bout of randomness, in controlling the risk, and in executing a set of consistent ideas day in and day out, so that chance can prevail. drilling down further, the end game is still about making the most money with the least cost. so, it's not how often you're right, but how much you're right. if you want to make money and do this for a living, then asymmetric payoffs and maximizing geometric returns should be front and center in your thinking.

there are a number of "leaps" one must make in their progression as a trader, and none is greater than the transition from "hobbyist" to "professional" i define professional trader as a trader who is able to live off of his p&l and continue to scale his account. trading takes on a new meaning and presents a vast new challenge when it becomes your sole source of income. so while discussions like these may be intellectually stimulating, they are of a tertiary concern at best, when it comes to maximizing your chances of becoming a professional trader.

In regard to trading I will happily concede all my points for the ones you make here, I would be unable to make a 'better trade'.

November 8th, 2015, 04:07 PM

Maybe let us leave Leonardo to rest in peace, I think he deserves at least that.

Cheers

November 8th, 2015, 04:36 PM

tturner86

I knew deep down you loved a good tinfoil hat theory...

That's actually what I was thinking about when i used that phrase

November 8th, 2015, 04:56 PM

ratfink

Maybe let us leave Leonardo to rest in peace, I think he deserves at least that.

Cheers

leo should not take it personally. i got into the same argument with john bollinger, about his eponymouslly named liitle bands.

November 8th, 2015, 05:11 PM

tigertrader

leo should not take it personally. i got into the same argument with john bollinger, about his eponymouslly named liitle bands.

Please tell me it ended with him saying -- "Lets take this outside...the second standard deviation band"

November 8th, 2015, 05:15 PM

tigertrader

leo should not take it personally. i got into the same argument with john bollinger, about his eponymouslly named liitle bands.

I still have his signed VHS video. They never did ring bells at tops, even when it was a higher high inside a band after a higher high outside the band. There was always another band. Now I just listen to the music, when it's a good band.

November 13th, 2015, 09:23 AM

OK fibonacci aficionados, where will the ES turn and resume its ascension toward a new ATH?

November 13th, 2015, 12:18 PM

trendisyourfriend

OK fibonacci aficionados, where will the ES turn and resume its ascension toward a new ATH?

Why should anybody know? Otherwise we'd own all the money in the universe.

I'm at home and not trading today but the Dow has put in a rather sweet 1.618 from ATH that looks like a decent 3-3-5 flat, it might need another poke to confirm but has held a pullback so might not, climbing nicely so far.

Can always be part of anything larger or much darker though, so pick a frame and stay in it.

Cheers

November 13th, 2015, 07:15 PM

trendisyourfriend

OK fibonacci aficionados, where will the ES turn and resume its ascension toward a new ATH?

To give you a straight answer -- I am currently watching 1993ish on the ES. That is where my next major fib line below is located. I cannot tell you whether price will get there and what it will do if it does -- anymore then a volume profiler can tell you if price will reach a poc and/or go through it, or anymore then a VWAPer can tell you if price will hit a VWAP and what it will do after that. Fibs are just another form of market structure. Nothing more, nothing less.

That said, you may have opened the door for some fib porn this weekend, my friend, and that's on you!

Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?

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Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?