Don't know enough about Gartley's and Harmonic patterns to comment, but here are some fibs for the above timeframe. The 161.8 extension at 2138 proved to be the first wall that actually stopped the bull train, at least for now. I do find it a little hard to believe that of all the places the bull could have stalled, the fact that it did so right there is a total freak coincidence. I mean of all the ratios, that is the one. Still, doesn't mean that's the top. I'm still keeping an eye on the 161.8 projection level at 2213.50 for an eventual divergent top. Timing unkown. But that's just me

No offense intended because I believe people are free and deserve to trade the way they want. All that matters in the end is making money at it.

But,

Do you really believe that the trillions of dollars, and the countless number of people behind those dollars in the market represented by that chart are governed by some numerical ratios that occur in nature because they are the lowest energy way to grow organic structures?

Do you believe that back in 2007 on that chart market players big enough to move the market said to themselves "I am going to sell when price reaches the 161.8 extension"?

Sorry but in my mind it just does not add up.....

No offense intended because I believe people are free and deserve to trade the way they want. All that matters in the end is making money at it.

But,

Do you really believe that the trillions of dollars, and the countless number of people behind those dollars in the market represented by that chart are governed by some numerical ratios that occur in nature because they are the lowest energy way to grow organic structures?

Do you believe that back in 2007 on that chart market players big enough to move the market said to themselves "I am going to sell when price reaches the 161.8 extension"?

Sorry but in my mind it just does not add up.....

Indeed @Seahn! Could you see George Soros staring at a chart of the British Pound in 1962 as he was getting ready to short the market and "break the bank of england"? sure, i can see him saying, "stan, i want you to short the fuck out of the pound, but not until you have a fib to sell it against!" the irony of this entire discourse, is it would never be found on a forum that consisted of professional traders. it would be like a bunch of rich guys getting together, and discussing what it would be like to be poor. it just doesn't happen. you'll see a bunch of poor cats fantasizing about what it's like to be rich, but not the other way around. i remember victor once writing, One finds it very dysfunctional to lose my temper on all occasions, but especially when trading or with the children. It could even lead to tilt. So forgive me if I don't mount the high horse in my disapproval of talk about Fibonacci and Elliott wave and Gann waves on the spec list as our raison d'etre is almost as antithetical to such things as it is to politics, religion, and honeys (may they never meet).

all these charts are meaningless and only serve to highlight the the difference between prior and and posterior probability. to quote wikipedia...

In Bayesian statistical inference, a prior probability distribution, often simply called the prior, of an uncertain quantity is the probability distribution that would express one's beliefs about this quantity before some evidence is taken into account

the posterior probability of a random event or an uncertain proposition is the conditional probability that is assigned after the relevant evidence or background is taken into account.

yes, it's true that the market does go from a to b and then pulls back to c and goes on to move back to c and beyond. and sometimes c even turns out to be a fib. the question is not if this phenomena occurs, but with what probability does it occur, and what is the probability of having an extreme and sustained change in the market-trend, given you have this pull-back.

there is no theoretical basis to believe that fibonacci support and resistance levels hold any validity for traders. so the only possible rationale might be that one finds that they work empirically. to date no such credible evidence has ever been seen.

single signals and other linear, uni-variate input leave the trader with a simple binary bet, with no opportunity to act on new information. it does not provide quick feedback that alerts one if the trade is valid or not, nor does it assist the trader in obtaing asymmetric payoffs or a high expectancy.

if one was to ask himself, does the source of this edge make sense, or is there a structural or behavioral, or fundamental reason why the source of this signal should persist, i think the answer would be no.

Het TT do you mean 1992?

What is the title of this thread ???? Are Fibonacci retracement and projections useful...

The none believer say, did the market follow this number... did the fed follow... the answer is no
but they don't answer the question...


To be useful don't mean to be the holy grail..., Vix is useful, divergence are useful, VWAP are useful but none of them are the holy grail indicator. It the way you use it they are useful...

For me fib extension are USEFUL but it the way I use them that I like them.

For me they do what I want to see and give me the info I want...

good for you, but that's not the question.

the question is how often do they work compared to how often they don't work.

everybody loves to show their winning trades, but how often has the use of fibs cost you money, by way of missing moves, or exiting to soon, etc.

fib advocates never seem to want to address these issues

The reverse expansions of 161.8% are indeed useful. They are high probability exits and good entry points for smaller counter trades. Much better than any of the retracements below the 100% level. But they are not related to any universal harmonic laws. They are mainly working as self-fulfilling prophecy - and because a retracement of 161.8% is a good point for any strong trend to take a break.

Took me quite some time to draw all the fib retracements and expansions below. The two expansions are indeed outstanding.

Everybody think that fib user use them for entry, I use them for my target only

It give me the location to scale out my position ...