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Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?
More of a casual hobbyist trader, definitely not.
I believe if you have all this time to run this forum then maybe its you who is the casual hobbyist part time trader.
Ive got an idea that can put this all to bed. I will post a trade in the morning , before it happens. with a detailed trade plan that i will be taking , before it happens. entry , stop, target, everything.
You and fanboy TT will do the same, who ever makes the best trade is the winner. if i lose I run off in embarrassment.
If i win you apologize for implying I am a hobbyist trader and we all laugh it off. Deal???
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I posted all my trades in real time including daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly statements from multiple sources for a period of 6 months. To anyone that doesn't have a clear agenda against me, it would be obvious I am a profitable trader. Everyone can decide for themselves whether or not I am a good trader, but at least I laid it all out there with no sugar coating and no bs. All the bad trades and bad days are out there for everyone to see.
Why not just answer my question without all the drama? Why is it that just because someone disagrees with you that you have to get all defensive instead of just having a civilized debate?
I'd like to educate you and let you know that one trade has no statistical relevance, it's just a dick measuring contest. Again, this is just more school yard bs that has no bearing on being a good trader, or that fibs are useful. In fact, a string of trades can have very little statistical relevance.
This is why I asked you how long you've been a consistently profitable full-time trader, because it helps act as a frame of reference for your level of experience. Suggesting that you will call one trade to "settle this" suggests that you are not very experienced.
Both Fed Chairman Bernanke’s remarks yesterday and President Obama’s speech last night about his jobs plan; combined, failed to reassure the market that a solution to the country’s economic woes was at hand, and the …
I think anyone who has read either of those threads can see that both Mike and Gary have posted their trades for an extended period of time, winners and losers.
The use of the word"naive" is widely accepted as a way of describing strategies that are linear and not "complex" in nature i.e., a simple moving average cross as a trade signal. it is not meant to imply that the user is naive. my "underwear" comment is what is referred to in literary parlance as a metaphor, and a colorful one at that. it was not meant to imply that one leaves streaks in his drawers when trading.
let us just say that when it comes to trading, not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted.
I am bowing out of this thread for now. I feel like my comments are going in circles now, and my goal was never to try to force an opinion on someone if they aren't looking to question their own beliefs about trading. I believe that questioning beliefs is something that all good traders do, and I encourage it.
However, questioning fibonacci is somewhat similar to questioning politics or religion, people get very defensive very quickly. It's the "third rail" perhaps? I am not sure, but I don't like how negative users are being in this thread so I'll stop participating.
I hope the thread has been useful to some who appreciate quantitative qualities in their decision process.
I will still be reading the thread, so this is not a license for further rude behavior by anyone.
Civil debate is encouraged, however, and I'd like to see the thread continue with comments and opinions from both sides. The more the discussion continues in a positive way, the more good will come of it.
You asked me to prove why I think fibbs work so that's why I though id make it interesting with the Trade challenge.
Been trading for 6/7 years but only very recently found consistency after many years of struggling and pain.
No need to try to educate me, I know exactly what your implying.
I only use fibbs in a trending markets on 6E, and if they overlap with support or resistance. keep it simple.
Real pros can take any random trade, manage it well and be profitable. What makes a profitable trader is risk management.
Random line or fib? I would rather take trades on fibs as there are more participants watching and reacting off these lines. Looks like 47% of the people polled here agree use fibs and 53% use random.
It seems obvious from certain arguments that Fib. projection has no place in the reality of price movement.
But i would go even further in saying the same goes for any other type of mathematical guess at future S/R levels – floor pivots, camarilla equations, VWAP deviation bands, Value area bands, Noise bands, average daily range and whatever else is out there. They add no value but still people are constantly mentionning them in a lot of threads that are popular here on BMT, oops! sorry futures.io.
