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Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?
That's not the reason at all. I have seen threads on here tho where if someone disagrees with the consensus they do get flamed in a bad way. Not necessarily by people being rude, but at times not overly productive to the conversation either.
When people disagree with each other, I find it more of an opportunity for debate and discussion. However, others do not. Others feel the need to vehemently defend their position instead of possibly opening their mind to a different way of looking at things.
Just because one method works for one person, it may or may not work for someone else. And just because the person who has built a certain style or method of trading into his own system, doesn't necessarily mean it can work for everyone. Going back to my original post in this thread, it's a giant "it depends" answer to this subject. That was part of the point I was trying to make in that video (although not explicitly stated).
I would add that like most other lines, Fibs are subjective. I am looking for areas of S/R in the context of price action. The only indicators I am using now are volume bars, floor pivots, and a 20 ema and I don't really know why I'm even using the ema. Perhaps it does add some context but I'm thinking of removing it because I am trying to learn how to read supply and demand on the price bars. It's not easy but it does provide a better path of least resistance, in my opinion. Fibs, as well as all the other indicators available, serve mostly to distract. But like a few others have mentioned, if it works for you then who I am I to say otherwise. All I know is that the first time I put Fib lines on my chart, I thought, what the hell is this crap? The market doesn't care one way or the other about my Fib lines or any other lines it seems. I have seen some consistency using floor pivots, though. But I don't rely on them for any information other then confirmation and context. And as my moniker states, I am a beginner. I went live June of this year. Can the use of Fib lines be quantified? I doubt it. But I believe the uselessness of Fib lines could be quantified by back-testing.
One of the questions asked in this video was why does the VWAP, or yesterday's low, or pivots, affect price?
One answer might be that people use them, so it's self-fulfilling, but it's still a good question. Or perhaps they don't really affect price, but it's just a subjective illusion. But many people will use things like previous lows and highs as at least markers that may be significant for future price action.
I think it is legitimate to ask the question, in connection with the ongoing fib discussion.
Does that mean that fibs are the same -- as in, have the same validity -- as prior highs/lows? I'm not sure I think so, but the question is related. And I'm not sure how well-"quantified" prior highs/lows actually are, in any formal sense. But people are able to use them, and they seem to work. One thing is that it is not hard to figure out where the prior low was; but there are many ways to draw the fib lines.
I do have an issue, from a purely practical standpoint, about the fact that picking the points to draw the fibs from seems to be a very individual matter, and there always seem to be a lot more possible fib levels than actually work out. I don't know how useful they are when not seen in hindsight. Like many people, I have tried them and moved on for that reason.
I haven't read the Grimes research yet on quantifying fibs, so I don't know what he found or how he did it. My issue with them is more about the subjectivity and variability, and basically, their usability.
But thanks for the video. It is interesting, and the questions you pose are not irrelevant.
I don't think you were correct in expecting a lot of flaming, by the way. People do have their opinions, but they've often tried to use fibs and decided to take a pass. That makes for disagreement, but not necessarily flaming.
Did I? Or did I put them on at 7:30 am and leave them there all day, then take them off and re-apply them for the purpose of recording that video?
It would be awfully hard for me to prove it either way, and awfully hard for you to prove it either way. I guess the only way to absolutely prove it would be for someone to watch my screen all day and see if I do or not.
But, I think you're missing the more important question ... was I able to use these lines to make a trading decision at any point during the day?
If you don't have an open position, you have 3 choices, no matter where price is:
Open a trade long
Open a trade short
Do nothing
And when you are in a trade, you have 3 choices as well:
Close your position
Scale out your position
Add to your position
So, can some lines (fibs, VWAP, MAs, pivots or anything else) help you to make a trading decision? I guess that's something everyone has to figure out for themselves.
