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Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?
Started: by Big Mike Views / Replies:25,233 / 430
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Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?

  #51 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Brace yourself, I'm going to ask for proof.

Please share the probability work/research that you've done that prove fibs are useful.

Just to keep things calm let me reiterate -- we are both adults and I am not attacking you. We are two people having a conversation, I hold one opinion, you hold a different one. Insults are for children that can't defend their statements or ideas and have no place here.

I've laid out all my opinions in hundreds (thousands?) of posts already, and at least one thread you've mentioned already. I would appreciate it if you lay out yours instead of just saying you can't share anything, you could anonymize the data and share your research without sacrificing any privacy or holy grail type system.

I'm trying to pinpoint research that shows fibs are useful.

Thank you.

Mike

Mike,

I'm not going to go down that path.

There are price action traders, volume profile, market profile, tape readers and the list goes on and on. There are so many different ways to view the market.

Published studies...nope.
Empirical research ...nope.

It would literally take a week to lay out and describe how I view market structure. You need to know that before you can even go down the path of fibs and when and how to use them.

Even people that can use them profitably, use them differently. Another TF trader I know uses different swings and retracements/extensions. We both end up at about the same spot, but different ways. It took him 3-4 years to develop and test his method.

I think Massive I said in a post that " the market is less random than the academics think..and more random than traders think." Structure and fibs are about finding that middle point between the two extremes.

Think about it..I have nothing to gain and possibly something to lose by doing what you suggest. That is not a good trade in my book.

I look at your site as entertainment. Every once in awhile there is something useful posted that prompts me to take a deeper look at something. I don't visit to learn a method or for the users insights.

I have a wife, two kids, two dogs and two businesses, trading being one of them. I have neither the time or energy to create charts showing what I know for random people on the internet.

Bill

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  #52 (permalink)
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UmBillyCord View Post
Think about it..I have nothing to gain and possibly something to lose by doing what you suggest. That is not a good trade in my book.

I believe it was Richard Dennis who famously said something along the lines of how he could publish the rules to his systems in the newspaper and still people couldn't make money with them.

You won't even offer up a cliff notes version of your fib strategy to satisfy the request?

Are you afraid of revealing a holy grail?

I haven't had a losing day of trading in weeks, possibly a month or two, and I'll gladly tell anyone who asks my EXACT methodology and how I interpret the markets.

Your aversion to sharing your ideas is the exact antithesis of what Futures.io stands for.

(I should add, I have read a lot of your posts and I believe you are a great trader from how you talk about levels and approach the mental game the correct way, actually sound eerily similar to a successful someone that I talk about trading with on a regular basis. I don't have an issue with you personally, just with what I posted above and the spirit of futures.io)


Last edited by TheTradeSlinger; October 28th, 2015 at 03:33 AM.
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  #53 (permalink)
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TheTradeSlinger View Post
I believe it was Richard Dennis who famously said something along the lines of how he could publish the rules to his systems in the newspaper and still people couldn't make money with them.

....

I haven't had a losing day of trading in weeks, possibly a month or two, and I'll gladly tell anyone who asks my EXACT methodology and how I interpret the markets.

Leaving aside the dispute about fibs, this is really important.

There is no chance in the world that, if someone had a secret method that made him rich and that worked 95% of the time, and if he published every detail of it, with examples, and if he then published trades with extensive commentary every day for six months, that anyone in the world would take it up and trade it exactly the way he did. In fact, there is very little chance that anyone else would succeed with it.

Believers in the existence of secret methods and seekers of the Holy Grail believe otherwise, and either seek them or want to hold them close to the chest and protect them.

The fact is that every day, right here on this forum, you see many people posting their trades and doing well (although not at the level of the mythical ideal systems), and openly discussing their thinking -- which is usually different from other good traders -- yet, you also see many, many others trying to use much the same ideas, and they do not succeed. But they have the blueprints of the successful method(s) right there in front of them.

Why? It's in the trader, not in the system. That's the only conclusion you could draw.

(I'm not knocking anyone who has a system that works or that they are using. That would be very far from my point.)

Bob.

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  #54 (permalink)
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TheTradeSlinger View Post
... and I'll gladly tell anyone who asks my EXACT methodology and how I interpret the markets.
...

I am interested to hear about your EXACT methodology and how YOU interpret the markets. Would you mind creating a thread for that purpose?

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  #55 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
I am interested to hear about your EXACT methodology and how YOU interpret the markets. Would you mind creating a thread for that purpose?

He has a journal going

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  #56 (permalink)
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UmBillyCord View Post
Why would I lay out proof to people I am competing against in the market? Does Bill Belichick send his playbook to the competition before a game?

Traders do not compete against each other. Their goal is to make a profit in each trade. Identities of the traders are unknown.

We are retail traders. We have no say on what the market does and when. All we can hope of is getting in sync with the market and making a few $$.

If I am making lot of $$ from the market on a consistent basis, it gives me a sense of achievement, a sense of pride, a sense of superiority. That ego is the only reason that keeps traders from revealing their "secrets". But the fact is, if my neighbors also make $$ from the market, it will have no affect on my income. Market is too big.

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  #57 (permalink)
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@Big Mike

Here is another example of why I'm not going to get into specifics.

In the past my brother ran education/trading rooms. Sometimes he would give away a free week of education.

After showing people our exact method, including using fibs to estimate a target after an entry, and then having price end up within a few ticks of that target; Do you want to know what the questions were?

When are you going to take some trades live? WTF ?

Did they ask “wow how does that work?” or “hey, show me that again”. No, they just wanted trade porn. Don’t try to teach me something, just show me a trade that I can mentally masturbate to while watching.

Which reinforces my view, and this is not directed to any specific person at this site, that the majority of people are hopelessly stupid. The majority weren’t born that way. They just forgot, or were never taught, how to figure things out for themselves. They want someone to give them an answer, any answer.

Here is one post I made that shows part of our method. I shouldn’t have done it…but what the hell.

https://futures.io/psychology-money-management/29616-anyone-trade-without-specified-targets-stops-3.html#post498227

The numbers are less important than the structure and what that tells me.

And BTW, here are the numbers.

Retracements: 38.2, .50 (not a fib), .618 , .786 ( not truly a fib number but the square of one), .886
Extensions: 127%, 161.8 %, 199% (not a fib), 233%, 261.8% (not a fib)


Also, people get hung up on the exact number. It’s more important to see if there is any symmetry on moves. At best the symmetry lasts a few days or wave patterns, then it changes and evolves to a new symmetry.

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  #58 (permalink)
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cogito View Post
Traders do not compete against each other. Their goal is to make a profit in each trade. Identities of the traders are unknown.

We are retail traders. We have no say on what the market does and when. All we can hope of is getting in sync with the market and making a few $$.

If I am making lot of $$ from the market on a consistent basis, it gives me a sense of achievement, a sense of pride, a sense of superiority. That ego is the only reason that keeps traders from revealing their "secrets". But the fact is, if my neighbors also make $$ from the market, it will have no affect on my income. Market is too big.

Do I have a say on what the market does? Absolutely not!

But I disagree that other traders are not my competition. Everyone and everything is a competition in one way or another.

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  #59 (permalink)
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TheShrike View Post
He has a journal going


Yes, and it is hopelessly out of date and not in any way a reflection of what I am doing now.

I don't journal publicly anymore.

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  #60 (permalink)
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UmBillyCord View Post
Yes, and it is hopelessly out of date and not in any way a reflection of what I am doing now.

I don't journal publicly anymore.

I wasn't referring to you.

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