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Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?
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Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?

  #431 (permalink)
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Or, with the benefit 8 more hours :)

Or, later in the day...

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  #432 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Are fibonacci retracements and projections useful in a quantifiable way?

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Mike

I have to say yes they are. But, not how most use them. I use them on big time frames, had training for them and only use extensions to define ranges and project with that measurement.

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I do not believe using fibs inside the RTH or on short time frames with all the small levels like 23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8% 76.4% has merit.

I consider trading an art form. You practice it.

Ron

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  #433 (permalink)
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Blash View Post
...

I do not believe using fibs inside the RTH or on short time frames with all the small levels like 23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8% 76.4% has merit.

I consider trading an art form. You practice it.

Ron

You might like this guy who shares his trade ideas on FF and is a big fan of fibs and harmonic trading. I am mostly a volume profile trader but found inspiration in his teaching. Now i see a lot of similarities between volume profile and fibonacci analysis. He trades the morning session mostly on the YM.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCc47vNuDiw

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  #434 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Are fibonacci retracements and projections useful in a quantifiable way?

Vote and discuss.

Mike

Hi,

I think i found a relevant and thought provoking study regarding your question:
Fibonacci Retracement: Is it a Myth or Reality?

I particularly liked his algo definition to identify the many swings.

Good reading.


Quoting 
...we don’t observe peaks or troughs around certain correction levels which would be true if Fibonacci reversals were indeed significantly distinct events.


Quoting 
...there is a high probability that the correction will occur somewhere nearby one of Fibonacci levels. By chance alone!

...83 % percent of 40,243 examined corrections are contained between the level of 15 % and 61.8%.


Quoting 
With any charting technique, there’s a human tendency to look at the chart and “only see” cases where the rule holds. We ignore the multitude of cases where the rule doesn’t hold.


Quoting 
My conclusion from this study is that Fibonacci retracement levels do not represent a real phenomenon. Rather, retracements within these zones can be explained by statistical chance alone.



Last edited by trendisyourfriend; March 4th, 2017 at 11:59 AM.
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What is the difference between a pull-back and new range? Usually a range is 85% - 100% or more of the previous leg, while a pull back can as great as 75%. There's a large grey area between 61% - 76% and after that's usually deemed uncertain. Likewise if there's a pull back of anything less than 25% it's not really considered a clear enough pull back to entertain based on technical analysis alone. It seems to be there's a sweet spot between 23-76% hitting all the popular fibs for a pull back and gives cushion for a stop loss before or around 100%. Somehow this coincides with Fibonacci because anything else would be range or momentum trading.


Last edited by Itchymoku; March 5th, 2017 at 12:49 AM.
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