Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful? - Traders Hideout | futures.io
futures.io futures trading


Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?
Started: by Big Mike Views / Replies:25,310 / 430
Last Reply: Attachments:76

Welcome to futures.io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike

Reply
 76  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?

  #31 (permalink)
Elite Member
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: tos
Favorite Futures: NQ, SB, 6J, CL, GC
 
Massive l's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,454 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 917 given, 1,797 received


tturner86 View Post
Amen...

never mind the "than". fixed

Psychology > Strategy ≥ Money
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Massive l for this post:
 
  #32 (permalink)
ribs
Philadelphia
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: sc
Favorite Futures: time
 
Itchymoku's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,833 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 1,636 given, 3,452 received

fibonacci in nature

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


There's fibs in your brain, you see them everywhere.

It's basically what you see when you compare if one object is larger than the other in the case of a retracement compared the the leg it's retracing. The discernible difference without any sort of measuring stick is about 5%, so 55%. I think there's a lot of fibonnaci estimations going on in the brain we're not completely aware of that are just conditioned into us. Can it be used in an exact science? maybe, but it's probably too complicated for everyday use. I think it's more efficient to just use the brain the way it's meant to be used, looking a bunch of charts and eyeballing. When you try to make the process into an exact science you're excluding a lot of the extraneous variables you take for granted.


Last edited by Itchymoku; October 27th, 2015 at 10:11 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to Itchymoku for this post:
 
  #33 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
San Diego, California
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, Multicharts
Broker/Data: Optimus/Amp - CQG/Rithmic/IQ
Favorite Futures: NQ,TF,YM,CL,Options
 
UmBillyCord's Avatar
 
Posts: 73 since Apr 2014
Thanks: 27 given, 64 received


Do fib retracements & and extensions hold value?

Yes, but only if you know when and where to use them.

They go hand in hand with market structure and symmetry. I think most people get hung up and think they need to be exact, they don't.

Here is an example of using Fib's for entry and exits. This trade was planned the day before after the market closed at 1:15 Pacific Time. If the morning conditions were met, this trade was a go. They entry wasn't perfect, I could have been filled about 10 ticks higher if I had waited for the open. If I remember correctly, price went about 4-6 ticks past my predetermined target.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



And the live trade with the target set.


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).




This trade was planned, in advance, using Fib's and structure.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to UmBillyCord for this post:
 
  #34 (permalink)
Hi Mom!
Bridgeport, Ct
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra
Favorite Futures: Gold, Oil
 
TheShrike's Avatar
 
Posts: 320 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 889 given, 394 received


UmBillyCord View Post
Do fib retracements & and extensions hold value?

Yes, but only if you know when and where to use them.

They go hand in hand with market structure and symmetry. I think most people get hung up and think they need to be exact, they don't.

Here is an example of using Fib's for entry and exits. This trade was planned the day before after the market closed at 1:15 Pacific Time. If the morning conditions were met, this trade was a go. They entry wasn't perfect, I could have been filled about 10 ticks higher if I had waited for the open. If I remember correctly, price went about 4-6 ticks past my predetermined target.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



And the live trade with the target set.


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).




This trade was planned, in advance, using Fib's and structure.

You could have done that with any set of arbitrary lines. What is it about Fibs specifically that makes them quantifiably better than another random toolset?

Reply With Quote
 
  #35 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
San Diego, California
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, Multicharts
Broker/Data: Optimus/Amp - CQG/Rithmic/IQ
Favorite Futures: NQ,TF,YM,CL,Options
 
UmBillyCord's Avatar
 
Posts: 73 since Apr 2014
Thanks: 27 given, 64 received

Futures Edge on FIO

Which products do you trade?

 

TheShrike View Post
You could have done that with any set of arbitrary lines. What is it about Fibs specifically that makes them quantifiably better than another random toolset?

I guess your reading comprehension is not very good. I planned that trade THE DAY BEFORE, entry and target, using fibs and structure. The larger the time frame, the better they work.

You don't like fibs...fine. But the random line BS is really old. There really is order within the chaos. You just need to know how and where to look.

BTW, I really don't need to quantify or prove squat. Why would I lay out proof to people I am competing against in the market? Does Bill Belichick send his playbook to the competition before a game?

Until Copernicus, the conventional wisdom said that the sun orbited the earth.

The funny thing is, when I look at market profile or Ichimoku they are coming to some of the same conclusions, just a little earlier or later and using different tools.

Reply With Quote
 
  #36 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 45,663 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,045 given, 80,710 received


UmBillyCord View Post
I guess your reading comprehension is not very good. I planned that trade THE DAY BEFORE, entry and target, using fibs and structure. The larger the time frame, the better they work.

You don't like fibs...fine. But the random line BS is really old. There really is order within the chaos. You just need to know how and where to look.

BTW, I really don't need to quantify or prove squat. Why would I lay out proof to people I am competing against in the market? Does Bill Belichick send his playbook to the competition before a game?

Until Copernicus, the conventional wisdom said that the sun orbited the earth.

The funny thing is, when I look at market profile or Ichimoku they are coming to some of the same conclusions, just a little earlier or later and using different tools.

Don't be rude.

Sent from my phone

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
 
  #37 (permalink)
Elite Member
Phoenix,AZ
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra, TOS
Favorite Futures: ES, CL
 
Posts: 12 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 4 given, 10 received


UmBillyCord View Post
Do fib retracements & and extensions hold value?

Yes, but only if you know when and where to use them.

They go hand in hand with market structure and symmetry. I think most people get hung up and think they need to be exact, they don't.

Here is an example of using Fib's for entry and exits. This trade was planned the day before after the market closed at 1:15 Pacific Time. If the morning conditions were met, this trade was a go. They entry wasn't perfect, I could have been filled about 10 ticks higher if I had waited for the open. If I remember correctly, price went about 4-6 ticks past my predetermined target.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



And the live trade with the target set.


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).




This trade was planned, in advance, using Fib's and structure.

It is not clear to me where the fibs are on the charts that are the basis for your trade setup. Can you please clarify or point them out?

Reply With Quote
 
  #38 (permalink)
Webinar Host
Austin, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-50
Favorite Futures: JDAM
 
tturner86's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,550 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 9,640 given, 10,673 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


UmBillyCord View Post
I guess your reading comprehension is not very good. I planned that trade THE DAY BEFORE, entry and target, using fibs and structure. The larger the time frame, the better they work.

You don't like fibs...fine. But the random line BS is really old. There really is order within the chaos. You just need to know how and where to look.

BTW, I really don't need to quantify or prove squat. Why would I lay out proof to people I am competing against in the market? Does Bill Belichick send his playbook to the competition before a game?

Until Copernicus, the conventional wisdom said that the sun orbited the earth.

The funny thing is, when I look at market profile or Ichimoku they are coming to some of the same conclusions, just a little earlier or later and using different tools.

Then why aren't the fibs on your chart?

Reply With Quote
 
  #39 (permalink)
Elite Member
Washington DC
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Zaner360
Broker/Data: Decarley
Favorite Futures: Futures, Futures Options
 
fminus's Avatar
 
Posts: 101 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 148 given, 228 received

I voted no because as someone already stated, the market doesn't care that you see a fibonnaci level. IMHO, the reason why they work sometimes is because there's so many people that are looking at the same level (for whatever reason i.e. pivot, trendline, s/r, fib, moon cycle, cat meows), it creates the order flow to actually bounce off that level. Do they always work? no. Will anything always work? no. Trade what you believe.

Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood. Now is the time that we understand more, so that we may fear less. - Marie Curie
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to fminus for this post:
 
  #40 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
San Diego, California
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, Multicharts
Broker/Data: Optimus/Amp - CQG/Rithmic/IQ
Favorite Futures: NQ,TF,YM,CL,Options
 
UmBillyCord's Avatar
 
Posts: 73 since Apr 2014
Thanks: 27 given, 64 received



canyon View Post
It is not clear to me where the fibs are on the charts that are the basis for your trade setup. Can you please clarify or point them out?

They are not there on purpose. It took my brother 10 years to discover, test and systematize how we use them.

Even if I posted them, you would not really know what you are seeing unless you knew the full context. That trade setup over two days. It wasn't a random event.


tturner86 View Post
Then why aren't the fibs on your chart?

I would never post them or how we use them on a public forum. The only people I would show/train are my children and extended family.


Last edited by UmBillyCord; October 28th, 2015 at 12:42 AM. Reason: addition
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to UmBillyCord for this post:

Reply



futures.io > > > Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

Anthony Drager: Pulling the trigger with confidence

Elite only
 

Leo Murphy: The Art and Science of Technical Analysis

Elite only
 

FuturesTrader71: Ask Me Anything

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Autohiding for Fibonacci Retracements With Extentions zentrade ThinkOrSwim Programming 3 May 8th, 2013 08:36 PM
Indicator hunt - Eraseable Fibs, and Projections samadams The Elite Circle 3 August 18th, 2012 01:47 AM
ORP (Opening Range Projections) TAJTrades Traders Hideout 13 May 29th, 2011 04:17 AM
Price and time projections Scalpguy The Elite Circle 4 August 21st, 2010 03:13 PM
Fibonacci Retracements George NinjaTrader Programming 8 March 6th, 2010 06:19 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:11 PM.

no new posts
Page generated 2017-01-23 in 0.16 seconds with 21 queries on phoenix via your IP 23.23.34.22