NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?


Discussion in Traders Hideout

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one srgtroy with 60 posts (176 thanks)
    2. looks_two tigertrader with 37 posts (152 thanks)
    3. looks_3 tturner86 with 33 posts (69 thanks)
    4. looks_4 bobwest with 27 posts (65 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one tigertrader with 4.1 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Big Mike with 4 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 srgtroy with 2.9 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 tturner86 with 2.1 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 199,528 views
    2. thumb_up 1,022 thanks given
    3. group 47 followers
    1. forum 434 posts
    2. attach_file 80 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?

  #31 (permalink)
 
Massive l's Avatar
 Massive l 
OR/USA
Legendary /NQ Trader
 
Experience: None
Posts: 2,129 since Mar 2011
Thanks Given: 1,859
Thanks Received: 5,106


tturner86 View Post
Amen...

never mind the "than". fixed

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
NexusFi Journal Challenge - April 2024
Feedback and Announcements
The space time continuum and the dynamics of a financial …
Emini and Emicro Index
Better Renko Gaps
The Elite Circle
New Micros: Ultra 10-Year & Ultra T-Bond -- Live Now
Treasury Notes and Bonds
Deepmoney LLM
Elite Quantitative GenAI/LLM
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Get funded firms 2023/2024 - Any recommendations or word …
61 thanks
Funded Trader platforms
38 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
27 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
19 thanks
The Program
18 thanks
  #32 (permalink)
 Itchymoku 
Philadelphia
 
Experience: None
Platform: corded black telephone
Trading: ticker tape
Posts: 2,894 since Apr 2012
Thanks Given: 1,683
Thanks Received: 3,681



There's fibs in your brain, you see them everywhere.

It's basically what you see when you compare if one object is larger than the other in the case of a retracement compared the the leg it's retracing. The discernible difference without any sort of measuring stick is about 5%, so 55%. I think there's a lot of fibonnaci estimations going on in the brain we're not completely aware of that are just conditioned into us. Can it be used in an exact science? maybe, but it's probably too complicated for everyday use. I think it's more efficient to just use the brain the way it's meant to be used, looking a bunch of charts and eyeballing. When you try to make the process into an exact science you're excluding a lot of the extraneous variables you take for granted.

R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
Reply With Quote
  #33 (permalink)
 
UmBillyCord's Avatar
 UmBillyCord 
San Diego, California
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, Multicharts
Broker: Optimus/Amp - CQG/Rithmic/IQ
Trading: NQ,TF,YM,CL,Options
Posts: 73 since Apr 2014


Do fib retracements & and extensions hold value?

Yes, but only if you know when and where to use them.

They go hand in hand with market structure and symmetry. I think most people get hung up and think they need to be exact, they don't.

Here is an example of using Fib's for entry and exits. This trade was planned the day before after the market closed at 1:15 Pacific Time. If the morning conditions were met, this trade was a go. They entry wasn't perfect, I could have been filled about 10 ticks higher if I had waited for the open. If I remember correctly, price went about 4-6 ticks past my predetermined target.



And the live trade with the target set.






This trade was planned, in advance, using Fib's and structure.

Reply With Quote
  #34 (permalink)
 
TheShrike's Avatar
 TheShrike 
Bridgeport, Ct
 
Experience: None
Broker: Tasty
Trading: Fops
Posts: 533 since Jun 2012
Thanks Given: 1,588
Thanks Received: 922


UmBillyCord View Post
Do fib retracements & and extensions hold value?

Yes, but only if you know when and where to use them.

They go hand in hand with market structure and symmetry. I think most people get hung up and think they need to be exact, they don't.

Here is an example of using Fib's for entry and exits. This trade was planned the day before after the market closed at 1:15 Pacific Time. If the morning conditions were met, this trade was a go. They entry wasn't perfect, I could have been filled about 10 ticks higher if I had waited for the open. If I remember correctly, price went about 4-6 ticks past my predetermined target.



And the live trade with the target set.






This trade was planned, in advance, using Fib's and structure.

You could have done that with any set of arbitrary lines. What is it about Fibs specifically that makes them quantifiably better than another random toolset?

Reply With Quote
  #35 (permalink)
 
UmBillyCord's Avatar
 UmBillyCord 
San Diego, California
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, Multicharts
Broker: Optimus/Amp - CQG/Rithmic/IQ
Trading: NQ,TF,YM,CL,Options
Posts: 73 since Apr 2014


TheShrike View Post
You could have done that with any set of arbitrary lines. What is it about Fibs specifically that makes them quantifiably better than another random toolset?

I guess your reading comprehension is not very good. I planned that trade THE DAY BEFORE, entry and target, using fibs and structure. The larger the time frame, the better they work.

You don't like fibs...fine. But the random line BS is really old. There really is order within the chaos. You just need to know how and where to look.

BTW, I really don't need to quantify or prove squat. Why would I lay out proof to people I am competing against in the market? Does Bill Belichick send his playbook to the competition before a game?

Until Copernicus, the conventional wisdom said that the sun orbited the earth.

The funny thing is, when I look at market profile or Ichimoku they are coming to some of the same conclusions, just a little earlier or later and using different tools.

Reply With Quote
  #36 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator
Developer
Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,397 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,173
Thanks Received: 101,537


UmBillyCord View Post
I guess your reading comprehension is not very good. I planned that trade THE DAY BEFORE, entry and target, using fibs and structure. The larger the time frame, the better they work.

You don't like fibs...fine. But the random line BS is really old. There really is order within the chaos. You just need to know how and where to look.

BTW, I really don't need to quantify or prove squat. Why would I lay out proof to people I am competing against in the market? Does Bill Belichick send his playbook to the competition before a game?

Until Copernicus, the conventional wisdom said that the sun orbited the earth.

The funny thing is, when I look at market profile or Ichimoku they are coming to some of the same conclusions, just a little earlier or later and using different tools.

Don't be rude.

Sent from my phone

We're here to help: just ask the community or contact our Help Desk

Quick Links: Change your Username or Register as a Vendor
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list
Lifetime Elite Membership: Sign-up for only $149 USD
Exclusive money saving offers from our Site Sponsors: Browse Offers
Report problems with the site: Using the NexusFi changelog thread
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #37 (permalink)
 canyon 
Phoenix,AZ
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra, TOS, TradingView
Broker: Denali, IB, TDA, tastyworks
Trading: ES, CL, GC, Stocks, Options, Crypto
Posts: 12 since Jan 2013
Thanks Given: 4
Thanks Received: 10


UmBillyCord View Post
Do fib retracements & and extensions hold value?

Yes, but only if you know when and where to use them.

They go hand in hand with market structure and symmetry. I think most people get hung up and think they need to be exact, they don't.

Here is an example of using Fib's for entry and exits. This trade was planned the day before after the market closed at 1:15 Pacific Time. If the morning conditions were met, this trade was a go. They entry wasn't perfect, I could have been filled about 10 ticks higher if I had waited for the open. If I remember correctly, price went about 4-6 ticks past my predetermined target.



And the live trade with the target set.






This trade was planned, in advance, using Fib's and structure.

It is not clear to me where the fibs are on the charts that are the basis for your trade setup. Can you please clarify or point them out?

Reply With Quote
  #38 (permalink)
 
tturner86's Avatar
 tturner86 
Portland, Oregon
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-40
Trading: GBU-39
Posts: 6,191 since Sep 2013
Thanks Given: 10,459
Thanks Received: 12,695


UmBillyCord View Post
I guess your reading comprehension is not very good. I planned that trade THE DAY BEFORE, entry and target, using fibs and structure. The larger the time frame, the better they work.

You don't like fibs...fine. But the random line BS is really old. There really is order within the chaos. You just need to know how and where to look.

BTW, I really don't need to quantify or prove squat. Why would I lay out proof to people I am competing against in the market? Does Bill Belichick send his playbook to the competition before a game?

Until Copernicus, the conventional wisdom said that the sun orbited the earth.

The funny thing is, when I look at market profile or Ichimoku they are coming to some of the same conclusions, just a little earlier or later and using different tools.

Then why aren't the fibs on your chart?

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #39 (permalink)
 
fminus's Avatar
 fminus 
Washington DC
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT
Broker: Dorman
Trading: US Treasuries
Posts: 126 since Sep 2009
Thanks Given: 156
Thanks Received: 299

I voted no because as someone already stated, the market doesn't care that you see a fibonnaci level. IMHO, the reason why they work sometimes is because there's so many people that are looking at the same level (for whatever reason i.e. pivot, trendline, s/r, fib, moon cycle, cat meows), it creates the order flow to actually bounce off that level. Do they always work? no. Will anything always work? no. Trade what you believe.

In trading, shortcuts lead to the longest path possible.
Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #40 (permalink)
 
UmBillyCord's Avatar
 UmBillyCord 
San Diego, California
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, Multicharts
Broker: Optimus/Amp - CQG/Rithmic/IQ
Trading: NQ,TF,YM,CL,Options
Posts: 73 since Apr 2014



canyon View Post
It is not clear to me where the fibs are on the charts that are the basis for your trade setup. Can you please clarify or point them out?

They are not there on purpose. It took my brother 10 years to discover, test and systematize how we use them.

Even if I posted them, you would not really know what you are seeing unless you knew the full context. That trade setup over two days. It wasn't a random event.


tturner86 View Post
Then why aren't the fibs on your chart?

I would never post them or how we use them on a public forum. The only people I would show/train are my children and extended family.

Reply With Quote




Last Updated on March 4, 2017


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts