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Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?
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Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?

  #361 (permalink)
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I hesitate to post the chart with the latest price action included because I think we are all getting fatigued with this here. I will post it for the record with no commentary.

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It may be the last one. Just consider this food for thought...

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  #362 (permalink)
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srgtroy View Post
I hesitate to post the chart with the latest price action included because I think we are all getting fatigued with this here. I will post it for the record with no commentary.

It may be the last one. Just consider this food for thought...

I think it would be cool if you could give a rundown of how you would trade around these levels. Stops, profit, etc.

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  #363 (permalink)
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@TheShrike

I agree. The idea was to show them as useful for market structure, but they still need to be traded. How price reacts to these levels is still gonna be key, and in part, what you do is gonna be based on price action at these levels in your time-frame.

At any rate, the next time I post a fib chart...it will be accompanied by a trade...


Last edited by srgtroy; November 19th, 2015 at 06:57 PM.
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srgtroy View Post

At any rate, the next time I post a fib chart...it will be accompanied by a trade...


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tturner86 View Post

oh, and i forgot to mention, it will also be accompanied by also a small surcharge...

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srgtroy View Post
oh, and i forgot to mention, it will also be accompanied by also a small surcharge...

And that will end like this:

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tturner86 View Post
And that will end like this:


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srgtroy View Post
I really want to thank @Big Mike for the way he has handled things, at least with respect to me. I know, or at least am 99 percent sure, that he does not agree with me on fibs, or any lines on a chart for that matter (maybe VWAP, kinda). Yet there has been no attempt to silence or censure me, no pressure, nothing, and that's really all that one can ask for in the forum moderator and site owner. In return, I have really endeavored to stay civil and focused on the issue...

Well said.

You've also had a remarkably upbeat and positive attitude about the whole thing.

It's good if we can be good-natured in our disagreements, and stay collegial with all of it.

Bob.

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timefreedom View Post
those who post the most are not necessarily those who know the most. Good luck.

i'm more of a camus guy myself, but jean-paul sartre had a great quote himself

Only the guy who isn't rowing has time to rock the boat.

what have you ever contributed to this forum, other than criticism?

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tturner86 View Post
So humans are not natural?

Man made is not the same as made in nature - you are just trying to be a smart ass here because the question you just posed is very naive.

Man-made objects do not naturally produce Fibonacci numbers, case in point - which one is man made and which is made in nature?

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One of them cannot possibly contain Fibonacci numbers without deliberation.

If you can't tell the difference between nature and man-made - you got issues.

The market is made up of millions of participants who has their own agenda and who's individual action today and in the past no matter how small influences where the market is today. For Fibonacci numbers to work, you would have to believe that some higher power is guiding all of these people to move in a particular pattern to produce specific numbers down to the last 2 decimal places - does this not sound absurd to you?

It is akin to saying all the sunflowers in the world grow in a specific way to produce a Fibonacci pattern that can be viewed as a whole.

The logical explanation for short term Fib numbers is that you are being fooled by random lines. Fib's is a great guideline for pullback %'s, but they aren't magic numbers if nobody else uses it. Fib's also happen to draw a crap load of lines hence if you use Fib lines as "areas", you pretty much cover 80% of the pullback area anyway and one of them will be "respected" at some point.

The secondary explanation, particularly for longer term Fib numbers is that there are enough people who use them that they become a self fulfilling prophecy. ALL lines on a chart, whether they are simply straight lines or Fib charts have to by definition be self fulfilling prophecies - because if nobody fulfills it, the market will just ignore it.

Hence the argument that fibs do and don't work is pointless - they do work, to an extent that a large enough sample of others look at the same line you are too. The trick is finding the obvious ones where everyone else participates to increase the percentage chance it will work.

The answer here is simple, there is no natural cause of Fib numbers in the markets. They are caused in the exact same way as any other line - enough participants, though Fibs are much more open to interpretation as there are larger degrees of freedom versus some who just joins two very obvious highs or bottoms to produce a range.

Feel free to think there is a higher power forcing fib numbers to be respected due to "natural" causes but I prefer facts.

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