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Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?
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Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?

  #311 (permalink)
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nature

Fibonacci, wave patterns and cycles are all present because humans find writing opinions easier than reading them, and find news stories seductive even when the same one is used to justify price moves in both directions on the same day. On the other hand markets are far easier to read than they are to trade, even when they're beautiful.

I appreciate all in here who have helped me to begin to learn the difference between analysis (of all forms) and trading. Yesterday was a good day, I recognised that I have usually been getting out where the pro's are getting in - suddenly finding 'ease of movement' on the DOM simply because it was a with-trend trade was a refreshing experience. I will spend next year working on capturing @tigertrader's asymmetric return (well maybe a tiny bit of it anyway.)

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  #312 (permalink)
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Here's is your quantifiable evidence, delivered right to my inbox this morning

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  #313 (permalink)
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Well, despite being scolded by the "opposition" for expecting price to retrace back to my major level, that is, in fact, exactly what it did, after losing steam at the fib right above it:

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  #314 (permalink)
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srgtroy View Post
Well, despite being scolded by the "opposition" for expecting price to retrace back to my major level, that is, in fact, exactly what it did, after losing steam at the fib right above it:

I wondered when you were going to mention that

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srgtroy View Post
Well, despite being scolded by the "opposition" for expecting price to retrace back to my major level, that is, in fact, exactly what it did, after losing steam at the fib right above it:

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I don't care for fibs, but I love that you had these numbers and levels before hand and not in hindsight...

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  #316 (permalink)
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Complimentary scientific software makes cash!

Must be software that tells you what a good trader you are, while you're using it? (Either that, or their spelling leaves something to be desired?)

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  #317 (permalink)
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Bruce Gilmore - Trading to Win

Bruce Gilmore wrote that fibonacci retracements and projections are useful in his book Trading to Win.
Does anyone use his methodology from this book?

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  #318 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
I don't care for fibs, but I love that you had these numbers and levels before hand and not in hindsight...

I think some observers figure it must be hindsight if it's beautiful, this is a fallacy.

Fibs for serious users are no more hindsight than any other TA, whether you use wave-based relationships, traditional draws, constructive draws or time-based supports. Some are more accurate/beautiful/relevant than others but we all still get left with the same questions - did we pull the trigger or not? And what are we expecting to happen?

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  #319 (permalink)
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srgtroy View Post
Well, despite being scolded by the "opposition" for expecting price to retrace back to my major level, that is, in fact, exactly what it did, after losing steam at the fib right above it:

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so, how many did you buy there?

i bought a shitload, and still have 25% of them, and it wasn't because of a fib

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  #320 (permalink)
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srgtroy View Post
Well, despite being scolded by the "opposition" for expecting price to retrace back to my major level, that is, in fact, exactly what it did, after losing steam at the fib right above it:

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pardon my french,

but

big fucking deal

how bout all the times it doesn't work

ever hear of "survivorship bias"

so, how many did you buy there?

you still got them?

because,

unless you did, and did something with them,

then it's just another post hoc analysis

i bought a shitload there, and still have 25% of them, and it wasn't because of a fib

or because it was the W-PP

because neither of those lines, nor the confluence thereof, had anything to do with it

if you trade off these random lines

you will just spin your wheels and generate commissions

show me all the times fibs work

and i will show you all the times they don't work X 2

better yet, show me a trader who trades off these exclusively, and is consistently profitable

and, even if you can produce 1,

i'll show you thousands more, who make millions more

and never give fibs a second thought

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Last edited by tigertrader; November 18th, 2015 at 07:50 PM.
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