I have a saying (same as others) - ' If it ain't broke, don't fix it'.
If you are profitable using Fibs, then do not listen to anyone. Keep doing what you do.
I personally cannot make Fibs work for me, but if you can, keep doing so.
TT is the best trader on this forum, but he is not the only successful one here. He can keep a trade going for a month. I am happy to have a trade for 30 minutes. Others have their own edge. Mine is taking small profits. It suits my personality, but won't suit others.
Find your edge and stick to it, and don't be put off by others.
Here is a chart to whet your appetite
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No offense taken and thanks for the friendly manner. My straight answer to you is NO, I DO NOT BELIEVE that in 2007 the big players thought that.
Let me be straight. I myself am not convinced 100% that fibs work. My problem is that I have taken the time to play with these tools and understand them, and the same ratios keep coming up. At some point I cannot keep dismissing it as a "coincidence". I am aware of the pitfalls of confirmation bias and have tried to use a specific set of rules to draw them.
At any rate, IF fibs do work, I do not believe it is because of some self-fulfilling prophecy, or that its because the big guys all use them on an individual basis. @tigertrader tells me they don't and I believe him. (Although I wouldn't be surprised if one or two big players keeps some fibs in his closet and is too ashamed to admit it
Rather, it would be more in line with patterns created by a critical mass of people, big and small, on a collective basis, not on an individual one.
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Somewhere way back when, and I will find the link, just before you were going to meet "The Palindrome" aka Soros, I pointed to a series of videos where Soros himself outlined his philosophy. Interestingly enough, the basis of his philosophy had nothing to do with "correlations" so to speak. It had to do with the fact that he made his money betting against the fact that the market was "rational" and "efficient". Rather, he felt it was ruled by emotion and prone to mis-pricing. He developed his own theory on bubbles and how to make money off of them. At its heart, his trading was based on understanding human psychology on a collective basis.
IF fibs works, it MAY BE that they work somewhere along the lines of collective patterns of human psychology and critical mass as well. At least that is my interest in them.
Certainly, Soros has at least proven that trying to mine that vein is not a fool's errand. Of course, I am not him, and will probably not succeed like he did, but, hey, it doesn't hurt to prospect a little.
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Totally agree with you. Too many people on here think that lines are random, but if they have meaning for you, then they are not random.
If you can make sense from Fibs ( or any other lines on your chart), then they have a meaning and are not random.
Whatever your edge, keep doing it and do not listen to anyone one that say you can't.
I like drawing lines on my chart as they have meaning to me. However, too many people on FIO (formerly BMT) will see them as 'Random', because they have no meaning to them. And they then tell you that you are stupid to think that these lines are useful.
Anyway, thanks, for helping me with my aggressor bar indicator.
Here are another couple of charts from the previous 2 days with lines that have meaning to me.
Last edited by mrmuggins; November 7th, 2015 at 09:47 PM.
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For long time I didn't know how to close a position, so most of the time I was early on my exit, but since I use the Fib extension, it help me to stay longer on the trade.
When I saw a retracement but not enough to tell me the trend is over I will stay on the trade until it reach the fib extension, most of the time they reach those number so I scale out a portion of my entry and put my next target at the second extension.
So for me it more positive and force me to not take my profit to soon...
so to make a quick explanation, when the price break the 100 fib, I will put my first target at the 127,2
and the second at the 161,8...
When you want to succeed as bad as you want to breathe, then you will be successful
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i hope my comments are not misconstrued as pretentious nor disputatious, rather than
an attempt to provoke thought.
as a leveraged trader, one makes short-term decisions/trades, manages the risk/ keeps draw-downs to manageable levels and occasionally turns short-term winning positions into longer ones. that being said, the market and its past is identical for all observers. yet, the market and the future are understood uniquely by each trader. no matter how crude or refined a method one follows in ascertaining the likelihood of change, it still boils down to surviving against one's own incomplete intellect, a misfired bout of randomness, in controlling the risk, and in executing a set of consistent ideas day in and day out, so that chance can prevail. drilling down further, the end game is still about making the most money with the least cost. so, it's not how often you're right, but how much you're right. if you want to make money and do this for a living, then asymmetric payoffs and maximizing geometric returns should be front and center in your thinking.
there are a number of "leaps" one must make in their progression as a trader, and none is greater than the transition from "hobbyist" to "professional" i define professional trader as a trader who is able to live off of his p&l and continue to scale his account. trading takes on a new meaning and presents a vast new challenge when it becomes your sole source of income. so while discussions like these may be intellectually stimulating, they are of a tertiary concern at best, when it comes to maximizing your chances of becoming a professional trader.
Last edited by tigertrader; November 8th, 2015 at 02:59 PM.
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