Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful? - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?
Updated: Views / Replies:32,666 / 434
Created: by Big Mike Attachments:82

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 82  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?

  #241 (permalink)
Elite Member
New York, New Jersey/USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Seahn's Avatar
 
Posts: 157 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 60 given, 250 received


srgtroy View Post
Don't know enough about Gartley's and Harmonic patterns to comment, but here are some fibs for the above timeframe. The 161.8 extension at 2138 proved to be the first wall that actually stopped the bull train, at least for now. I do find it a little hard to believe that of all the places the bull could have stalled, the fact that it did so right there is a total freak coincidence. I mean of all the ratios, that is the one. Still, doesn't mean that's the top. I'm still keeping an eye on the 161.8 projection level at 2213.50 for an eventual divergent top. Timing unkown. But that's just me

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

No offense intended because I believe people are free and deserve to trade the way they want. All that matters in the end is making money at it.

But,

Do you really believe that the trillions of dollars, and the countless number of people behind those dollars in the market represented by that chart are governed by some numerical ratios that occur in nature because they are the lowest energy way to grow organic structures?

Do you believe that back in 2007 on that chart market players big enough to move the market said to themselves "I am going to sell when price reaches the 161.8 extension"?

Sorry but in my mind it just does not add up.....


Last edited by Seahn; November 7th, 2015 at 06:58 PM. Reason: Spelling
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Seahn for this post:
 
  #242 (permalink)
Elite Member
Naperville IL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader
Broker/Data: NT broker
Favorite Futures: NQ ES 6E GC CL
 
Posts: 954 since Feb 2010
Thanks: 1,184 given, 647 received

those fib levels r random lines, we can draw many different lines and give them "holy grail"names...

Does market's move follow those number?
answer is NO !

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to supermht for this post:
 
  #243 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,714 received



Seahn View Post
No offense intended because I believe people are free and deserve to trade the way they want. All that matters in the end is making money at it.

But,

Do you really believe that the trillions of dollars, and the countless number of people behind those dollars in the market represented by that chart are governed by some numerical ratios that occur in nature because they are the lowest energy way to grow organic structures?

Do you believe that back in 2007 on that chart market players big enough to move the market said to themselves "I am going to sell when price reaches the 161.8 extension"?

Sorry but in my mind it just does not add up.....

Indeed @Seahn! Could you see George Soros staring at a chart of the British Pound in 1992 as he was getting ready to short the market and "break the bank of england"? (sarcastically) sure, i can see him saying, "stan, i want you to short the fuck out of the pound, but not until you have a fib to sell it against!" the irony of this entire discourse, is it would never be found on a forum that consisted of professional traders. it would be like a bunch of rich guys getting together, and discussing what it would be like to be poor. it just doesn't happen. you'll see a bunch of poor cats fantasizing about what it's like to be rich, but not the other way around. i remember victor once writing, One finds it very dysfunctional to lose my temper on all occasions, but especially when trading or with the children. It could even lead to tilt. So forgive me if I don't mount the high horse in my disapproval of talk about Fibonacci and Elliott wave and Gann waves on the spec list as our raison d'etre is almost as antithetical to such things as it is to politics, religion, and honeys (may they never meet).

all these charts are meaningless and only serve to highlight the the difference between prior and and posterior probability. to quote wikipedia...

In Bayesian statistical inference, a prior probability distribution, often simply called the prior, of an uncertain quantity is the probability distribution that would express one's beliefs about this quantity before some evidence is taken into account

the posterior probability of a random event or an uncertain proposition is the conditional probability that is assigned after the relevant evidence or background is taken into account.


yes, it's true that the market does go from a to b and then pulls back to c and goes on to move back to b and beyond. and sometimes c even turns out to be a fib. the question is not if this phenomena occurs, but with what probability does it occur, and what is the probability of having an extreme and sustained change in the market-trend, given you have this pull-back.

there is no theoretical basis to believe that fibonacci support and resistance levels hold any validity for traders. so the only possible rationale might be that one finds that they work empirically. to date no such credible evidence has ever been seen.

single signals and other linear, uni-variate input leave the trader with a simple binary bet, with no opportunity to act on new information. it does not provide quick feedback in order to alert one if the trade is valid or not, nor does it assist the trader in generating asymmetric payoffs or a high expectancy.

if one was to ask himself, does the source of this edge make sense, or is there a structural, behavioral, or fundamental reason why the source of this signal should persist, i think the answer would be "i don't know".


Last edited by tigertrader; November 7th, 2015 at 07:55 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
  #244 (permalink)
Elite Member
manchester, england
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader
Broker/Data: pfg best
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 289 since Apr 2011
Thanks: 285 given, 393 received


Seahn View Post
No offense intended because I believe people are free and deserve to trade the way they want. All that matters in the end is making money at it.

But,

Do you really believe that the trillions of dollars, and the countless number of people behind those dollars in the market represented by that chart are governed by some numerical ratios that occur in nature because they are the lowest energy way to grow organic structures?

Do you believe that back in 2007 on that chart market players big enough to move the market said to themselves "I am going to sell when price reaches the 161.8 extension"?

Sorry but in my mind it just does not add up.....


tigertrader View Post
Indeed @Seahn! Could you see George Soros staring at a chart of the British Pound in 1962 as he was getting ready to short the market and "break the bank of england"? sure, i can see him saying, "stan, i want you to short the fuck out of the pound, but not until you have a fib to sell it against!" the irony of this entire discourse, is it would never be found on a forum that consisted of professional traders. it would be like a bunch of rich guys getting together, and discussing what it would be like to be poor. it just doesn't happen. you'll see a bunch of poor cats fantasizing about what it's like to be rich, but not the other way around. i remember victor once writing, One finds it very dysfunctional to lose my temper on all occasions, but especially when trading or with the children. It could even lead to tilt. So forgive me if I don't mount the high horse in my disapproval of talk about Fibonacci and Elliott wave and Gann waves on the spec list as our raison d'etre is almost as antithetical to such things as it is to politics, religion, and honeys (may they never meet).

all these charts are meaningless and only serve to highlight the the difference between prior and and posterior probability. to quote wikipedia...

In Bayesian statistical inference, a prior probability distribution, often simply called the prior, of an uncertain quantity is the probability distribution that would express one's beliefs about this quantity before some evidence is taken into account

the posterior probability of a random event or an uncertain proposition is the conditional probability that is assigned after the relevant evidence or background is taken into account.


yes, it's true that the market does go from a to b and then pulls back to c and goes on to move back to c and beyond. and sometimes c even turns out to be a fib. the question is not if this phenomena occurs, but with what probability does it occur, and what is the probability of having an extreme and sustained change in the market-trend, given you have this pull-back.

there is no theoretical basis to believe that fibonacci support and resistance levels hold any validity for traders. so the only possible rationale might be that one finds that they work empirically. to date no such credible evidence has ever been seen.

single signals and other linear, uni-variate input leave the trader with a simple binary bet, with no opportunity to act on new information. it does not provide quick feedback that alerts one if the trade is valid or not, nor does it assist the trader in obtaing asymmetric payoffs or a high expectancy.

if one was to ask himself, does the source of this edge make sense, or is there a structural or behavioral, or fundamental reason why the source of this signal should persist, i think the answer would be no.

Het TT do you mean 1992?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to mrmuggins for this post:
 
  #245 (permalink)
Elite Member
Montreal, Quebec Canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: AMP / CQG
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Dervakon's Avatar
 
Posts: 148 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 408 given, 403 received

What is the title of this thread ???? Are Fibonacci retracement and projections useful...

The none believer say, did the market follow this number... did the fed follow... the answer is no
but they don't answer the question...


To be useful don't mean to be the holy grail..., Vix is useful, divergence are useful, VWAP are useful but none of them are the holy grail indicator. It the way you use it they are useful...

For me fib extension are USEFUL but it the way I use them that I like them.

For me they do what I want to see and give me the info I want...

When you want to succeed as bad as you want to breathe, then you will be successful
-Eric Thomas
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Dervakon for this post:
 
  #246 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,714 received


mrmuggins View Post
Het TT do you mean 1992?


ty. yes...typo

Reply With Quote
 
  #247 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,714 received


Dervakon View Post
What is the title of this thread ???? Are Fibonacci retracement and projections useful...

The none believer say, did the market follow this number... did the fed follow... the answer is no
but they don't answer the question...


To be useful don't mean to be the holy grail..., Vix is useful, divergence are useful, VWAP are useful but none of them are the holy grail indicator. It the way you use it they are useful...

For me fib extension are USEFUL but it the way I use them that I like them.

For me they do what I want to see and give me the info I want...

good for you, but that's not the question.

the question is how often do they work compared to how often they don't work.

everybody loves to show their winning trades, but how often has the use of fibs cost you money, by way of missing moves, or exiting to soon, etc.

fib advocates never seem to want to address these issues

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
  #248 (permalink)
Elite Member
Montreal, Quebec Canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: AMP / CQG
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Dervakon's Avatar
 
Posts: 148 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 408 given, 403 received


tigertrader View Post
good for you, but that's not the question.

the question is how often do they work compared to how often they don't work.

everybody loves to show their winning trades, but how often has the use of fibs cost you money, by way of missing moves, or exiting to soon, etc.

fib advocates never seem to want to address these issues


Everybody think that fib user use them for entry, I use them for my target only

It give me the location to scale out my position ...

When you want to succeed as bad as you want to breathe, then you will be successful
-Eric Thomas
Reply With Quote
 
  #249 (permalink)
Elite Member
Los Angeles, California Republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES, Mongolian Horse Futures
 
srgtroy's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,451 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 1,005 given, 2,227 received


Fat Tails View Post
The reverse expansions of 161.8% are indeed useful. They are high probability exits and good entry points for smaller counter trades. Much better than any of the retracements below the 100% level. But they are not related to any universal harmonic laws. They are mainly working as self-fulfilling prophecy - and because a retracement of 161.8% is a good point for any strong trend to take a break.

Took me quite some time to draw all the fib retracements and expansions below. The two expansions are indeed outstanding.


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

lol. Nobody said it was gonna be easy

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to srgtroy for this post:
 
  #250 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,714 received



Dervakon View Post
Everybody think that fib user use them for entry, I use them for my target only

It give me the location to scale out my position ...


like i said, how many times has it gotten you out of a trade prematurely vs the optimal exploitation of the trade?


do you have any idea if it has had a positive or adverse effect on your expectancy?

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

RandBots: AutoTrading Bots to diversify your trading

Oct 24
 

TopstepTrader: Profiting Without Risking Your Own Money

Oct 26

Building Open Source Indicators for NT8 w/Fat Tails @ Lizard Indicators

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Autohiding for Fibonacci Retracements With Extentions zentrade ThinkOrSwim Programming 3 May 8th, 2013 07:36 PM
Indicator hunt - Eraseable Fibs, and Projections samadams The Elite Circle 3 August 18th, 2012 12:47 AM
ORP (Opening Range Projections) TAJTrades Traders Hideout 13 May 29th, 2011 03:17 AM
Price and time projections Scalpguy The Elite Circle 4 August 21st, 2010 02:13 PM
Fibonacci Retracements George NinjaTrader Programming 8 March 6th, 2010 05:19 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:51 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-10-22 in 0.17 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.224.197.251