Re @tigertrader, in a good, big move, practically any attempt to put resistance levels in front of the market may/will get steamrollered. Unless price is in some kind of range situation, it is very unhealthy to try to say where it will stop. (And no range will last forever, either.)
Re @cogito, it would be interesting to see all, or more, and your conclusions about what to do. TT was bullish and (publicly) long during this recent move. If the point is that there were many 10-point moves that were marked off by fibs, within the larger move, then is the point just one about the timeframe to trade in? That, to me, would be legitimate, but so would @tigertrader's longer-term long holding -- which basically is stunning.
I'm not trying to fan the flames of controversy, just interested in both positions.
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ES usually has 1-3 10+ point moves in rth session. In one of the webinars, FT71 showed that the average size of the move is between 8-12 points. We can look at them several ways, like VA to VA. I try to catch these moves, but being a part-time trader, its kind of hard. Most of the time, the highly probable moves comes between 11:30 and 14:30 eastern, sometimes it is too late for me.
How to recognize the beginning of a 10-point move has been an issue for me. Earlier in the session, Value Areas and VWAP are useless as the range and volume has not built up yet. S/R levels do not always work and they dont exist in all-time highs. Market internals sometimes do not give any good information. TICK is pretty much useless in a range day.
I am marking the 10-point moves by the ZigZag indicator. Today, I promised BigM that I will examine the last 2 weeks of days for any thing interesting in Fibs. One of the big controversies in using Fibs is choosing high and low points to draw the fibs, which is highly subjective. Since I am already using zigzag indicator, decided to use the zigzag pivots to look into to. Fib retracement is not of interest to me, because I am targeting only 10-point moves, so extensions are an obvious choice.
These 10+ point moves occur in both trending and consolidating days. I avoid betting on the 10-point reversals on strong trendy days.
In the context of this discussion, I see two potential uses to fib extensions.
1. Secondary confirmation of start of new 10-handle move
2. Targeting just above .618 is a high probable winner (one can manage the trade from that point on).
Correction: .618 fib extension was reached or surpassed 16 of the 18 days. The other two days, it could reach only .382. Both times it was immediately after a strong trend.
Few more charts.....
Last edited by cogito; November 1st, 2015 at 08:33 PM.
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Yes, because they are the mathematics of emotion, fear and greed.
Yes, because self-fullfilling prophecies do not create beautiful pictures that can span a century or more.
Yes, because using them on cash indexes is very different to using them on futures. I do both and I do so differently.
Yes, because using them without an awareness of cycle or fractal scale or wave pattern or fundamental change is stupid.
Yes, because I took the time to understand them, I do not blame the tools.
Yes, because I can use the same level of science that the debunker heroes such as Grimes and Norden use to prove that heart surgery and brain surgery are not possible. I simply gave scalpels and patients to ten plumbers and achieved a 100% death rate.
Yes, because on a forum where we are taught that all traders need to find themselves and their own methods the double standards used in some debates are unfortunate. More open-mindedness would be appreciated.
Yes, because it reminds me of atheists who loudly decry non-believers by shouting 'show me the evidence and I will change my mind'. So in fact they are agnostics. I have no need for religion, but I have no problem with those that do so peacefully.
Yes, because the charts that non-believers typically use are also full of irritating pointless lines. Just different lines.
Yes, because there is no line on any chart that doesn't sometimes turn price and sometimes get crossed by price other than price itself.
I have no idea why Fibonacci users should be expected to lay out a magic quantified system that others can somehow pick-up and start to use - how is that different from any snake-oil system in a box or room that we have been taught to be so shy of?
I also have no idea why users or non-users should expect any line to be a magic bullet, I think we can all agree on that one. They are just a tool in the box, it's a sharp tool, you can do beautiful things with it or cut yourself to pieces. Just like many of the others.
I am no trader, but I know a thing or two about analysing charts and people.
I attach a picture that means a lot to me. I could draw several other structures that would also work well but this is the one I like for now. I posted it on Oct 7, the babe has now retested and pushed through the January high around 10850 as expected. The 25 years shown corresponds roughly to the inside of a nipple on top of a breast that we can't see. We don't yet know for sure how pervy this thing will get, it might be game over, it might not. The point is, it doesn't matter - it's just a game amongst friends, right?
edit: Chart now updated to end of month.
Last edited by ratfink; November 2nd, 2015 at 09:19 AM.
Reason: Fix dumb thumbnail attachment
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