Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful? - Traders Hideout | futures.io
futures io futures trading


Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?
Started: by Big Mike Views / Replies:27,619 / 434
Last Reply: Attachments:82

Welcome to futures io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike

Reply
 82  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?

  #141 (permalink)
Elite Member
Copenhagen, Denmark
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Fib Fib and Fib.!
Favorite Futures: Setup
 
Posts: 295 since May 2011
Thanks: 54 given, 157 received

This was written some time ago with fib target ahead of time. Nothing has changed since.

https://futures.io/traders-hideout/34583-need-help-drawing-fibonacci.html#post469981

https://www.tradingview.com/x/L4Dd0rmC/

However people can make there own conclusion.

Discussion about random lines is in the eyes of the beholder.!

Reply With Quote
 
  #142 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 45,804 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,097 given, 81,382 received

However, there is a huge difference with VWAP. VWAP is the same on all charts, all time frames. It's also just one line for an entire session, not 10 lines or more.

Whereas fibs are different depending on how you draw them, depending on where you start them, the time frame, and there are 5-10 lines on a chart, maybe more (I think one guy had 15 lines in a 1 hour period).

Fibs are not magical. The actual number itself, the fibonacci sequence, is not what is important if you are using fibs in your trading. Instead, you could take any nearby number such as Fat Tails suggested (using 1/8ths) and price will "interact" with these lines in the same way it interacts with fibonacci sequence numbers.

Fib lines on your chart are not predictive. Instead, they are simply providing you context. They are not telling you what to do. in fact, all the "pro fib" supporters so far have said this. They are not telling you what to do, they've said.

They are just framing price. There is no difference in framing it every 12% vs framing it on fibonacci sequence. And if you accept that, then you are left with discretionary trading decisions based on these non-predictive lines.

And as I've demonstrated in the Random Line Thread, the human mind is a powerful tool when it comes to selecting which lines on a chart are "good" and which are "bad" in hindsight. In other words, you can "frame price" with lines say every 1/8th and achieve the same statistical result as framing it with a fibonacci sequence.

That's my whole point to everyone here, in my opinion, fibonacci's are no more useful than random lines, murrey math lines, or any other set of lines on a chart. As I've said before, those traders that are successful with fibs are not giving themselves enough credit. Fibonacci sequence has nothing to do with it.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
The following 10 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
  #143 (permalink)
Elite Member
Washington DC
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: InvestorRT
Broker/Data: TD Ameritrade, AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 206 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 74 given, 267 received



Big Mike View Post

That's my whole point to everyone here, in my opinion, fibonacci's are no more useful than random lines, murrey math lines, or any other set of lines on a chart. As I've said before, those traders that are successful with fibs are not giving themselves enough credit. Fibonacci sequence has nothing to do with it.

Mike

What next? You are going to tell us you dont believe in lunar cycles for trading either? You radical!!!

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SI1!/lu8aauCl-Moon-Phases-Go-Ahead-And-Laugh-42K-Profit-With-0-Drawdown/

Reply With Quote
 
  #144 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,872 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,243 given, 31,074 received


cogito View Post
What next? You are going to tell us you dont believe in lunar cycles for trading either? You radical!!!

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SI1!/lu8aauCl-Moon-Phases-Go-Ahead-And-Laugh-42K-Profit-With-0-Drawdown/

On occasion, I've been known to"moon" the market...

There is no associated causality, but it does make me feel better!

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
  #145 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 45,804 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,097 given, 81,382 received

Futures Edge on FIO

What value do you place on the webinars on FIO?

 

cogito View Post
What next? You are going to tell us you dont believe in lunar cycles for trading either? You radical!!!

There are some traders out there that trade based on lunar cycles and astrology in general. There are some that believe Gann was Jesus resurrected and the master of all markets (I jest, but not by much for some).

I'm simply suggesting that believing that Fibs are better than a non-Fib number is of a similar ilk.

And I'm suggesting that traders that believe in astrology, Gann, Fibs and so forth, would become far better traders if they took a more rationale and balanced approach to trading.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
  #146 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 3,604 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 26,290 given, 10,980 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Big Mike View Post
And as I've demonstrated in the Random Line Thread, the human mind is a powerful tool when it comes to selecting which lines on a chart are "good" and which are "bad" in hindsight. In other words, you can "frame price" with lines say every 1/8th and achieve the same statistical result as framing it with a fibonacci sequence.

That's my whole point to everyone here, in my opinion, fibonacci's are no more useful than random lines, murrey math lines, or any other set of lines on a chart. As I've said before, those traders that are successful with fibs are not giving themselves enough credit. Fibonacci sequence has nothing to do with it.

Mike

I would say this is probably true even if fib levels actually turn out to be really predictive.

In other words, if we assume that VWAP or something else, like prior highs and lows, are actually significant in some way that a very good backtest would validate, traders who use them successfully are still, for the most part, succeeding with them largely via exactly the same phenomenon that Mike refers to with lines that -- for argument's sake -- are not "objectively" meaningful.

For one thing, how many traders on this forum have VWAP, or prior high/lows, or one thing and another on their charts and are not succeeding? Many.

One only needs to follow along on the spoos thread to see how fluid the decision-making can be, among successful traders who are using these very tools. Alternatively, many will focus on these same tools, expecting the tool to be what decides the question, and find it really isn't.

Of course, it probably is better to be using something that is, in fact, "objectively" meaningful than something that isn't.

One of the lessons available from the Random Line Theory thread (which does not say all lines are "random" by the way ), is to turn the attention to the trader, not (only) to what's on the chart.... Or I think so , anyway.

Bob.


Last edited by bobwest; November 1st, 2015 at 12:50 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
  #147 (permalink)
Elite Member
Quebec
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker/Data: Stage 5 trading/AMP/Rithmic
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,633 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 2,949 given, 4,385 received


Big Mike View Post
However, there is a huge difference with VWAP. VWAP is the same on all charts, all time frames. It's also just one line for an entire session, not 10 lines or more.
...

Mike

Last time i checked, there was 3 lines above and 3 lines below the VWAP representing the standard deviations. Add to that the 3 days VWAP, weekly, monthly and yearly you begin to get quite a few lines. Just to add more confusion those volume profilers, you know these traders with their myriads of lines representing each low and high volume nodes for a given interval. Now we are really talking about a smorgasbord of cheesy lines.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
 
  #148 (permalink)
Elite Member
London
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: cqg integrated,ninjatrade
Favorite Futures: Futures and forex
 
Posts: 30 since Apr 2015
Thanks: 6 given, 28 received

Fibbs are good in a trending market when they are overlapping with previous days lows or highs

Reply With Quote
 
  #149 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,872 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,243 given, 31,074 received

its absolutely ludicrous to believe that the actors who drive price are sensitive to fibs. fibs are easily the most over analyzed data available by naive traders, which in of itself renders the data uninformative i.e., they are a self-reinforcing delusion.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
  #150 (permalink)
Elite Member
London
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: cqg integrated,ninjatrade
Favorite Futures: Futures and forex
 
Posts: 30 since Apr 2015
Thanks: 6 given, 28 received



tigertrader View Post
its absolutely ludicrous to believe that the actors who drive price are sensitive to fibs. fibs are easily the most over analyzed data available by naive traders, which in of itself renders the data uninformative i.e., they are a self-reinforcing delusion.

haha you obviously don't use them, they work for me, in a trending market with 6E they are bang on the money without a doubt.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Fxfutures1976 for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

Spring Grains Outlook w/Sean Lusk @ Walsh Trading

Elite only

FIO Video Journal Challenge featuring NinjaTrader ($2,000+ of prizes)

April

Process above all else w/Anthony Crudele @ Futures Radio Show

Elite only

Machine Learning - Quantitative Trading w/Martin Froehler @ Quantiacs

Elite only

Market Dynamics w/Peter Davies @ Jigsaw Trading

Elite only

Ask Me Anything w/Patrick Rooney @ Trading Technologies

Apr 18

Ask Me Anything w/FuturesTrader71

Apr 19

Machine Learning w/Kris Longmore

Elite only

Market Analysis w/Dave Forss

Apr 25

Introducing iSystems with Stage 5 Trading

Apr 27
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Autohiding for Fibonacci Retracements With Extentions zentrade ThinkOrSwim Programming 3 May 8th, 2013 07:36 PM
Indicator hunt - Eraseable Fibs, and Projections samadams The Elite Circle 3 August 18th, 2012 12:47 AM
ORP (Opening Range Projections) TAJTrades Traders Hideout 13 May 29th, 2011 03:17 AM
Price and time projections Scalpguy The Elite Circle 4 August 21st, 2010 02:13 PM
Fibonacci Retracements George NinjaTrader Programming 8 March 6th, 2010 05:19 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:43 PM.

no new posts
Page generated 2017-03-28 in 0.14 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.204.253.227