Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful? - Traders Hideout | futures.io
futures.io futures trading


Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?
Started: by Big Mike Views / Replies:25,237 / 430
Last Reply: Attachments:76

Welcome to futures.io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike

Reply
 76  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?

  #121 (permalink)
Webinar Host
Austin, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-50
Favorite Futures: JDAM
 
tturner86's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,547 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 9,636 given, 10,664 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


spideysteve View Post
Did I? Or did I put them on at 7:30 am and leave them there all day, then take them off and re-apply them for the purpose of recording that video?

It would be awfully hard for me to prove it either way, and awfully hard for you to prove it either way. I guess the only way to absolutely prove it would be for someone to watch my screen all day and see if I do or not.

But, I think you're missing the more important question ... was I able to use these lines to make a trading decision at any point during the day?

If you don't have an open position, you have 3 choices, no matter where price is:
  1. Open a trade long
  2. Open a trade short
  3. Do nothing

And when you are in a trade, you have 3 choices as well:
  1. Close your position
  2. Scale out your position
  3. Add to your position

So, can some lines (fibs, VWAP, MAs, pivots or anything else) help you to make a trading decision? I guess that's something everyone has to figure out for themselves.

I don't know, I can only go by what is shown in the video and that is you drawing the lines after the fact.

The biggest issue with Fibs is they don't tell you what to do. At least with a VWAP or MA you have some idea of what to do with it. In a bull trend if price pulls back to the VWAP you look to buy. Opposite in a bear trend. Heck even with an RSI it gives you an idea of what to do.

I have never seen anyone plot Fibs and the say when price gets to this Fib you should do x, y, or z. To me they are not actionable like other 'lines'.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to tturner86 for this post:
 
  #122 (permalink)
Elite Member
Phoenix,AZ
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra, TOS
Favorite Futures: ES, CL
 
Posts: 12 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 4 given, 10 received


tturner86 View Post
I don't know, I can only go by what is shown in the video and that is you drawing the lines after the fact.

The biggest issue with Fibs is they don't tell you what to do. At least with a VWAP or MA you have some idea of what to do with it. In a bull trend if price pulls back to the VWAP you look to buy. Opposite in a bear trend. Heck even with an RSI it gives you an idea of what to do.

I have never seen anyone plot Fibs and the say when price gets to this Fib you should do x, y, or z. To me they are not actionable like other 'lines'.

In my opinion, that is because someone that is having success with fibs is not using them alone. They are considering context, multiple timeframes, solid "random" line work, price action and using entry triggers that make sense. There are certainly potential areas the trader is targeting for the move.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to canyon for this post:
 
  #123 (permalink)
Elite Member
Fort McMurray, AB Canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT, MT4
Broker/Data: Continuum
Favorite Futures: ZB, ZN
 
spideysteve's Avatar
 
Posts: 93 since Mar 2015
Thanks: 150 given, 90 received



Big Mike View Post
You could just tell us, we trust you.

Can you post some today for Monday?

Mike

I did put those lines on prior to market opening today.

I will do a video either Sunday night or early Monday morning and then again Monday after close to see what effect these lines had on the market.

It was mentioned before .. can you just "do something" at those lines to trade profitably? Or, do you need other things to help with your decisions?

The chart I showed in the video is one of the charts I use and clearly, I have other things to guide me.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to spideysteve for this post:
 
  #124 (permalink)
Elite Member
Fort McMurray, AB Canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT, MT4
Broker/Data: Continuum
Favorite Futures: ZB, ZN
 
spideysteve's Avatar
 
Posts: 93 since Mar 2015
Thanks: 150 given, 90 received


canyon View Post
In my opinion, that is because someone that is having success with fibs is not using them alone. They are considering context, multiple timeframes, solid "random" line work, price action and using entry triggers that make sense. There are certainly potential areas the trader is targeting for the move.

Absolutely. And I think that was my point all along. These lines can be a guide.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to spideysteve for this post:
 
  #125 (permalink)
Elite Member
Fort McMurray, AB Canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT, MT4
Broker/Data: Continuum
Favorite Futures: ZB, ZN
 
spideysteve's Avatar
 
Posts: 93 since Mar 2015
Thanks: 150 given, 90 received

Futures Edge on FIO

Which products do you trade?

 

tturner86 View Post
The biggest issue with Fibs is they don't tell you what to do. At least with a VWAP or MA you have some idea of what to do with it. In a bull trend if price pulls back to the VWAP you look to buy. Opposite in a bear trend. Heck even with an RSI it gives you an idea of what to do.

I have never seen anyone plot Fibs and the say when price gets to this Fib you should do x, y, or z. To me they are not actionable like other 'lines'.

Agreed.

But look at these trades on these charts. There were definitely other factors involved in making my trading decision, but the fib lines helped to make the decisions. That is quantifiable and results oriented.

Actually closed position too quickly on this one, but look at the entry:
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


The entry and targets were for a reason:
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


And here also:
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Am I right all the time? Nope. Actually if you look close enough you will see a loss there on the 2nd chart .. which was my fault of course and misreading what I saw.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to spideysteve for this post:
 
  #126 (permalink)
Elite Member
Huntington WV
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: ES, CL
 
TheTradeSlinger's Avatar
 
Posts: 402 since Jun 2015
Thanks: 638 given, 502 received


spideysteve View Post

I appreciate the fact that you put this video together and posted it and the fact that the Futures.io community is BOSS enough to take their time to make screenshots and videos to backup an argument.

Thank you @spideysteve.
__________________________________________________________________________________

Ok here's the deal, the question is:

Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful in a quantifiable way?

In your video you used a local "high" and a "mid morning low."

Why the mid morning low? Why "mid morning"? What constitutes "mid morning"? What if tomorrow there is no mid morning low?

Objectively, where do you start and end your fibs? What objective process do you use to put the fibs on your chart, and further, how, objectively, do you put on trades using fibs?

Everyone answering yes, and not a single shred of objectiveness related to fibs... Which was the question!

@spideysteve, If you are making money using everything you have on your chart, keep at it. No one can tell you are wrong if you are making money with your process.

My whole thing is:

Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful in a quantifiable way?

Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to TheTradeSlinger for this post:
 
  #127 (permalink)
Elite Member
Quebec
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker/Data: Stage 5 trading/AMP/Rithmic
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,616 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 2,939 given, 4,361 received

If i would use Fibonacci in my day to day trading i would probably use something simple. Along these lines...

On the LHS, a 30 min chart with Fib lines plotted and recorded on disk automatically using certain swing pivots.
On the RHS, a 30sec. chart with the TriggerLines to gauge momentum. This is an application that could have been executed today without too much thinking.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
 
  #128 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 45,657 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,044 given, 80,671 received


spideysteve View Post
Agreed.

But look at these trades on these charts. There were definitely other factors involved in making my trading decision, but the fib lines helped to make the decisions. That is quantifiable and results oriented.

Your charts are very difficult to see (very small) but I think over a 1-hour period you have 15 lines on the chart. Is that right?

You say there are other factors involved in making the decision, but that fibs help. My question to you is -- why is 68.1 more important than 65 or 71? Why is 38.2 more important than 35 or 45? If you drew 15 lines on a chart that were spaced every 5 ticks instead of by fibonnaci spacing, do you really think it would make any difference?

I think people are getting hung up here in what is "useful" and "why". It is useful to frame price by using some lines. By that doesn't mean that line is important, it is simply a frame of reference. Therefore, a line that is 68.1 is no more important than a line that is 65 or 75.

That's my opinion, and it has been well documented in the Random Line thread.

I'm also the only one on the site that I know of that has posted 6-months of real-time trades and multiple sources of proof to backup their accuracy. I posted 100k months along with 50k losing days, it's all there. The good performing days and bad performing days had absolutely nothing to do with any line on a chart.

It would be useful if someone trading fibonacci could do the same thing, and show why fibonacci is more important than just a random line. In real-time, consistently, every trade, every day, every week, for months. I am sure it would be very enlightening to everyone.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
  #129 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Murrells Inlet SC
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, ETFs
 
Inletcap's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,158 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 9,767 given, 25,171 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Big Mike View Post
Your charts are very difficult to see (very small) but I think over a 1-hour period you have 15 lines on the chart. Is that right?

You say there are other factors involved in making the decision, but that fibs help. My question to you is -- why is 68.1 more important than 65 or 71? Why is 38.2 more important than 35 or 45? If you drew 15 lines on a chart that were spaced every 5 ticks instead of by fibonnaci spacing, do you really think it would make any difference?

I think people are getting hung up here in what is "useful" and "why". It is useful to frame price by using some lines. By that doesn't mean that line is important, it is simply a frame of reference. Therefore, a line that is 68.1 is no more important than a line that is 65 or 75.

That's my opinion, and it has been well documented in the Random Line thread.

I'm also the only one on the site that I know of that has posted 6-months of real-time trades and multiple sources of proof to backup their accuracy. I posted 100k months along with 50k losing days, it's all there. The good performing days and bad performing days had absolutely nothing to do with any line on a chart.

It would be useful if someone trading fibonacci could do the same thing, and show why fibonacci is more important than just a random line. In real-time, consistently, every trade, every day, every week, for months. I am sure it would be very enlightening to everyone.

Mike

Fibs never worked for you because you "dyslexia'd" the the most critical one (61.8 ~ 68.1) I'm sure if you got it right you would have found the holy grail and be done trading forever by now

Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to Inletcap for this post:
 
  #130 (permalink)
Elite Member
Washington DC
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: InvestorRT
Broker/Data: TD Ameritrade, AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 204 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 74 given, 266 received



Big Mike View Post

My question to you is -- why is 68.1 more important than 65 or 71? Why is 38.2 more important than 35 or 45?

Depending upon the context, I would say 65 or 71 is close enough to validate 68.1. The S/R levels are not hard 1 tick lines are represented on most charts, they are zones of few ticks wide, usually 4-6 ticks for ES, sometimes more. The width of the support/resistance zones depend upon where the stops are placed. Not everyone places their stops at exactly the same tick.

For example, the price moved from $30 to $20 (40 ticks) and we are looking at fibs getting an idea of possible retracement. 61.8% retracement would be 40 * .681 = 27 ticks or $26.25 Stops 2 ticks higher comes to .725 and stops 2 ticks lower comes to .625.

If the move was 100 ticks, that 2 tick variances amount to .7 and .66.

If we accept 2-3 tick (sometimes more) difference between the line-in-the-sand support/resistance levels and the actual reversal price points as valid, how can we not accept the save variance in fibs represented as percentage?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to cogito for this post:

Reply



futures.io > > > Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

2016 True Edge Awards: Voting is open until Jan 21!

Now
 

An Afternoon with FIO member Massive l

Elite only
 

Anthony Drager: Pulling the trigger with confidence

Elite only
 

Leo Murphy: The Art and Science of Technical Analysis

Elite only
 

FuturesTrader71: Ask Me Anything

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Autohiding for Fibonacci Retracements With Extentions zentrade ThinkOrSwim Programming 3 May 8th, 2013 08:36 PM
Indicator hunt - Eraseable Fibs, and Projections samadams The Elite Circle 3 August 18th, 2012 01:47 AM
ORP (Opening Range Projections) TAJTrades Traders Hideout 13 May 29th, 2011 04:17 AM
Price and time projections Scalpguy The Elite Circle 4 August 21st, 2010 03:13 PM
Fibonacci Retracements George NinjaTrader Programming 8 March 6th, 2010 06:19 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:41 AM.

no new posts
Page generated 2017-01-19 in 0.18 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 174.129.78.73