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Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?
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Are Fibonacci retracements and projections useful?

  #101 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
I find this funny because 50% it self is just a coin toss...

50% retracement and 50% coin toss probability are not the same.

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  #102 (permalink)
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cogito View Post
50% retracement and 50% coin toss probability are not the same.

No shit. It was a joke.

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  #103 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
No shit. It was a joke.

Duh!! I blame it on the beer. :-)

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  #104 (permalink)
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cogito View Post
Duh!! I blame it on the beer. :-)

That is an acceptable excuse.

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  #105 (permalink)
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Fibs

The beauty of fibs are in the eye of the beholder https://aeroinvest.com/Videos/SP500Aug2015.mp4

I guess it depends on how you use fibs if the standard methods found in TA books worked time and time again we'd all be rich by now.

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  #106 (permalink)
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Inletcap View Post
2500 views and 87 posts. Not a single person has yet to demonstrate the ability to "quantify" the usefulness of fibs. I think this makes a point in and of itself.

I don't have number on my hands but I know they work well the way I use them. It very complicated du the fact the way I put the fib I got multiple way to see what I want

I can see it for a intraday or for days, week etc...

It a really hard work to quantify them...

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  #107 (permalink)
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The people that say fibs are no better than random lines have provided evidence to support their opinion.

So far the pro-fib supporters seem to say something like this:

- They are useful, but I don't know why
- They are complicated, too complex for me to show you
- I run a hedge fund that uses fibs, and am not allowed to talk about why they are useful (lol)

To anyone who has read up on some human psychology, this would be a classic case of what basically boils down to confirmation bias.

There is a very clear pattern when you get a large enough sample size. This community is made up of 75k members, and it allows a lot of unique insight into how people think and behave.

I have a feeling most of the pro-fib guys also don't believe that trading psychology plays a major role in trading. I wonder why then the top firms in the world hire professional psychologists such as Brett Steenbarger? Must be a fluke.

Here is what Dr. Brett has to say:


Quoting 
[most traders] don't test specific hypotheses about the market(s)


Quoting 
I have worked with successful traders at several different trading firms. I have yet to see one who trades off chart patterns. I have yet to see one who trades off common oscillators and indicators.


Quoting 
Elliott Wave? Fibonacci? Earnings data? Candlesticks? Trend Lines? Not a single successful professional I've known and worked with personally have used these methods or any of the commonly touted methods of the popular trading literature.

Dr. Brett works with the top firms in the world.

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  #108 (permalink)
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Just for shits and giggles, I did a 6m long video showing some Fibonacci stuff on NQ

Yell at me, call me retarded, whatever you need to do I fully expect it. But there are a couple of key concepts (not that I'm a master of this stuff or anything) that I quickly talk about.

Will anyone change their mind about fibs as good/bad/hocus pocus/voodoo/whatever? Probably not and that's ok. But I didn't intend this video to change anyone's opinions, only to take a look at some things which might make you go hmmm

Let the flaming begin !!!





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  #109 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Right brain is non-verbal and intuitive. Maybe a fib user is a person that uses his right brain more than his left hemisphere which is more verbal and analytical for reading the markets.

That makes sense. Is that why they are usually emotional and generally struggle to verbally or logically explain why Fibs work.

Hmmm. Good research project really.

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  #110 (permalink)
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spideysteve View Post
Yell at me, call me retarded, whatever you need to do I fully expect it.

Anyone that is overly rude will be banned. I don't know why you say you expect it, surely it isn't just because some people disagree with you?

Mike

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